Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

How can any MP come out and continue to call for No Deal after the report that came out today? It is beyond reckless. And yet the journalists aren't even asking the question, simply letting the usual people talk the usual nonsense.

They should all be asked how they intend to reverse the expected downgrade.

BTW, I know that their 1st answer will be to deny the basis of the report and claim it as part of project fear, but of course the next question is to ask have they ever voted for a budget and how did they know the numbers made sense?

briany

Averi Delicious Mechanic wrote: »

The SNAP election. May thought it through and properly thought she would get a majority based on polling but it backfired.

Two points -

A) She already had a majority. Not a huge one, but a majority. She disregarded the old saying that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

According to the polls, Leave didn't stand much chance of winning, but it did. According to the polls,Trump didn't stand much chance of being elected U.S. president, but look what happened there.

Not that polling data is always wrong, but there's this swing factor we've seen lately that almost can't be measured, and it's worthwhile for any politician to consider its potential impact.

54and56

Leroy42 wrote: »

They should all be asked how they intend to reverse the expected downgrade.

Because no one can tell the future, experts don't know anything more than the average Joe in the street yada yada yada ............

Irish Praetorian

briany wrote: »

Two points -

A) She already had a majority. Not a huge one, but a majority. She disregarded the old saying that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

According to the polls, Leave didn't stand much chance of winning, but it did. According to the polls,Trump didn't stand much chance of being elected U.S. president, but look what happened there.

Not that polling data is always wrong, but there's this swing factor we've seen lately that almost can't be measured, and it's worthwhile for any politician to consider its potential impact.

I must take issue with the latter point; most of the polls taken prior to the killing of Jo Cox showed a leave win, so much so that Im surprised people seem to be painting the leave result as such an unexpected development. A similar point applies to the US where polling showed those vital blue firewall states as being too close to call before the election, but it was ignored.

youcantakethat

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If someone talked of leaving the EU in any other country, they would be laughed out of it.

Not true. The media and commentators have brainwashed a lot of people in this country. Take Italy, for example. A majority there want to leave the EU. Google "Less than half of Italians would vote to stay in the EU: survey"

54and56

youcantakethat wrote: »

Not true. The media and commentators have brainwashed a lot of people in this country. Take Italy, for example. A majority there want to leave the EU. Google "Less than half of Italians would vote to stay in the EU: survey"

Are you now accepting that polls are suddenly accurate?

And if they what's stopping them from having an Italexit vote?

Also, I don't need media or commentators in order to form my own view of the EU.

I remember when Ireland was pi$$ poor with an agricultural based economy and massive emigration.

The EU has helped modernise Ireland socially and economically and given us, as a small country, a real presence which allows us to move out of the shadow of our (once) dominant neighbour.

I am therefore very positive towards the EU. Yes it's imperfect and will need to be constantly reformed like any progressive society/political alliance but it is far more perfect than what existed before we joined.

lawred2

youcantakethat wrote: »

Not true. The media and commentators have brainwashed a lot of people in this country. Take Italy, for example. A majority there want to leave the EU.

Are you citing the European Parliament poll?

Because it didn't conclude that a majority want to leave at all. Only about a quarter did. There was a large chunk of undecideds.

Edit: I see you ninja edited your post

Professor Moriarty

youcantakethat wrote: »

Not true. The media and commentators have brainwashed a lot of people in this country. Take Italy, for example. A majority there want to leave the EU. Google "Less than half of Italians would vote to stay in the EU: survey"

That's a clickbait headline I'm afraid. The reality is that 44% of Italians would vote remain while 22% would vote to leave and 34% are undecided. So twice as many want to remain than want to leave.

youcantakethat

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

And if they what's stopping them from having an Italexit vote?

Maybe they are waiting to see how the British get on against the German and French bullies first? Who could blame them for that?

Besides, article 75 of the Italian constitution forbids referendums dealing with international treaties. That means that the country's constitution would need to be changed before a referendum could be held on EU and euro membership.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's a clickbait headline I'm afraid. The reality is that 44% of Italians would vote remain while 22% would vote to leave and 34% are undecided. So twice as many want to remain than want to leave.

Some other surveys show greater dissatisfaction with the EU. Also, they are hugely unhappy with the Euro currency in Italy, but know they cannot easily ditch it.

Leroy42

Imagine, the UK, once the biggest empire in the world, has taken to constantly complaining that they are bullied by the French and Germans.

They have also recently taken to saying that Leo is being mean and Enda was much nicer.

J Mysterio

It's really hard to believe where we are. All the headlines are doomsday scenarios. Mad Max Wasteland in 32 days!! A national breakdown and collapse, like a tinpot regime. So surreal.

The No Deal scenario published looks like a bad Transition Year project.

May's latest manoeuvres have needlessly complicated the situation and with such little time. I feel it has also probably lended undue legitimacy to the No Deal question - ERG and Brexiteer types going into overdrive to push this as their chance. Westminster will argue over the votes for two weeks and by the time they roll around, we will have just two weeks to Brexit.

This is really dangerous territory and they are really risking riots and chaos with this on the precipice stuff. God forbid something disturbs the natural running order of Parliament - one or two things go wrong to cause further delay, they are legally out (and totally ****ed).

Imreoir2

youcantakethat wrote: »

Maybe they are waiting to see how the British get on against the German and French bullies first? Who could blame them for that?

Not well as it turns out, though one wonders why sticking up for your national interest is bullying when the French and Germans do it, but soverignty when the English do it?

54and56

youcantakethat wrote: »

They are waiting to see how the British get on against the German and French bullies first.

UK -> We want X, Y & Z or we're going to jump off a cliff, hurt ourselves and hurt you a little also.

EU - > We're happy for you to have X & Y as that is mutually beneficial but Z is reserved for members of our club so you can't have that I'm afraid as you're leaving the club.

UK -> You're such bullies. We're going to jump off the cliff!!!

Rest of the World -> :rolleyes:

Professor Moriarty

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

UK -> We want X, Y & Z or we're going to jump off a cliff, hurt ourselves and hurt you a little also.

EU - > We're happy for you to have X & Y as that is mutually beneficial but Z is reserved for members of our club so you can't have that I'm afraid as you're leaving the club.

UK -> You're such bullies. We're going to jump off the cliff!!!

Rest of the World - :rolleyes:

I saw Brexit described somewhere recently as like crapping yourself and refusing to leave the room. Which is accurate as things are unfolding.

briany

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I must take issue with the latter point; most of the polls taken prior to the killing of Jo Cox showed a leave win, so much so that Im surprised people seem to be painting the leave result as such an unexpected development. A similar point applies to the US where polling showed those vital blue firewall states as being too close to call before the election, but it was ignored.

The Leave vote was fairly unexpected on the night of the vote, such that Nigel Farage himself gave what was, effectively, a concession speech even before the results were tabulated.

Clinton had a consistent polling lead in the firewall states of Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan according to all these state-by-state polls, and she appeared to be running away with it on a nationwide basis, too. Trump didn't seem overly expectant, either, based on the size of the room he booked for his victory speech vs clintons.

I'm not saying there was no evidence of a Leave vote or a Trump win, but the data seemed to be trending toward Remain/Clinton, and at that time, we had little reason to doubt the polls' veracity. They'd usually been fairly spot on.

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

The Leave vote was fairly unexpected on the night of the vote, such that Nigel Farage himself gave what was, effectively, a concession speech even before the results were tabulated.

Clinton had a consistent polling lead in the firewall states of Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan according to all these state-by-state polls, and she appeared to be running away with it on a nationwide basis, too. Trump didn't seem overly expectant, either, based on the size of the room he booked for his victory speech vs clintons.

I'm not saying there was no evidence of a Leave vote or a Trump win, but the data seemed to be trending toward Remain/Clinton, and at that time, we had little reason to doubt the polls' veracity. They'd usually been fairly spot on.

I'm open to correction, but I think in both cases most polls were accurate within the margin of error.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm open to correction, but I think in both cases most polls were accurate within the margin of error.

And in hindsight, up until the murder of Jo Cox Leave was polling in the lead in most polls according to Wikipedia.

Opinion Polling Brexit referendum

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

And in hindsight, up until the murder of Jo Cox Leave was polling in the lead in most polls according to Wikipedia.

Opinion Polling Brexit referendum

Populus had it 55% Remain and 45% Leave two days before the referendum! Bet that knocked their credibility back ever so slightly.

Spanish Eyes

Bottom line for me is, they are leaving, better to leave with a WA that preserves the GFA and has a backstop.

Hopefully this will happen. They are leaving so best options are the best. WA will help them with regulatory alignment and EU trade deals also.

Difficult to point them in that direction though admittedly!

youcantakethat

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Populus had it 55% Remain and 45% Leave two days before the referendum!

Was there not a famous Irish politician who went over to England just before the referendum, and he put his foot in it, and his attempt to convince the undecided to vote "Remain" backfired. In the words of some English, they were reminded where some of the tens of billions of pounds of EU contributions had gone. They did not like it (would we like it if an English leading politician come over here a few days before a referendum and told us how to vote) and the vote swung.

Or maybe the vote swung due to something in the wind. Or maybe the electorate remembered that in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC as its eighth member, the EEC the had 31% of world economic output. Two years ago, with a whooping 28 members, the EU just had 17% of world economic output, which underlies the shrinking role of the EU in the world economy.

Irish Praetorian

briany wrote: »

The Leave vote was fairly unexpected on the night of the vote, such that Nigel Farage himself gave what was, effectively, a concession speech even before the results were tabulated.

Clinton had a consistent polling lead in the firewall states of Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan according to all these state-by-state polls, and she appeared to be running away with it on a nationwide basis, too. Trump didn't seem overly expectant, either, based on the size of the room he booked for his victory speech vs clintons.

I'm not saying there was no evidence of a Leave vote or a Trump win, but the data seemed to be trending toward Remain/Clinton, and at that time, we had little reason to doubt the polls' veracity. They'd usually been fairly spot on.

To be fair I'm not sure we should take the word of Mr. Farage on the topic of...well anything to be honest. The polling data is fairly clear on the good prospects for leave in the period preceding the shooting of Jo Cox. I can certainly recall confronting a lot of remain friends in the UK and being fobbed off with 'oh the undecided will swing it to us'.

I would also draw the same conclusion about the US state polls (not that I would consider Virginia part of the blue firewall) - the tables you link show leads well within the margin of error for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the two way polling, even Michigan as well when we look four ways.

All that said I would still reach a similar enough conclusion to you in so much as observing that the preponderance of evidence suggested a Clinton win and to a lesser degree a Remain win. It's just that I don't care for the misty eyed re-remembering of those nights on the part of the winning camps as though they had pulled off some manner of spectacular one in a million upset - the victories were unlikely, not impossible and as it transpired they happened to win.

UsedToWait

Good piece by Patrick Kielty in the Guardian - he wasn't someone I'd have predicted to have emerged as a voice of reason from this whole mess..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/26/hard-brexit-united-ireland-second-referendum-dup?CMP=share_btn_tw

All notions of a border poll could easily have been damped if, post-Brexit referendum, the DUP had accepted that Northern Ireland was a special case. Like they insisted it was when they asked George Osborne to drop Northern Ireland’s corporation tax to mirror the Republic back in 2014. Or how same-sex marriage and abortion laws are different to the rest of the UK thanks to a veto by the DUP in the Northern Ireland assembly (apparently, it’s also in a confidence and supply arrangement with the Lord Jesus). But that was never on the cards because, for the DUP, Brexit is about proving they’re biologically British, not adopted. It means the party will always order what Johnson and Farage are having but, unlike them, actually eat it.

Headshot

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/26/economy-could-shrink-by-9-percent-under-no-deal-brexit-government-says

I just don't understand why Great Britain are doing this to themselves. The amount of jobs lost, lack of investment and money lost to date is astonishing but yet they still drive on into the abyss and eventually will drive over the cliff. Surely as leaders of their country, politicians have a sense of duty & responsibility to do what's best for their country and get out of this mess but they still keep going down that rabbit hole.

The British didn't know what they were voting for and were constantly lied to but for those who still want out of EU, i feel sorry for them that they cannot feel the European spirit and be part of something bigger that has done wonders to Europe and many many countries who are part of it

Ireland being a prime example of economic growth because of EU

FrancieBrady

youcantakethat wrote: »

Was there not a famous Irish politician who went over to England just before the referendum, and he put his foot in it, and his attempt to convince the undecided to vote "Remain" backfired. In the words of some English, they were reminded where some of the tens of billions of pounds of EU contributions had gone. They did not like it (would we like it if an English leading politician come over here a few days before a referendum and told us how to vote) and the vote swung.

Or maybe the vote swung due to something in the wind. Or maybe the electorate remembered that in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC as its eighth member, the EEC the had 31% of world economic output. Two years ago, with a whooping 28 members, the EU just had 17% of world economic output, which underlies the shrinking role of the EU in the world economy.

Maybe the electorate SHOULD have remembered they were pivotal, fully involved members of the EEC-EU for almost half a century?

And it looks more and more everyday they will be actually taking that Irish politicians advice having lost the courage of their convictions. When your 'convictions' are based on a hill of beans, losing them is easy to do.

Capt'n Midnight

BBC about some of the proposed amendments, popcorn time.
But one gets the feeling that it will be more "meaningful votes" and the deckchairs will get rearranged.

CBA dissecting them because it's all moot unless they actually decide to do something new.




BTW with all the can kicking and stalling and running down the clock and pretending to be a remainer and the way immigration has been treated and the whole Brexit is Brexit and people's will and..


No memes please.

youcantakethat

Headshot wrote: »

i feel sorry for them that they cannot feel the European spirit and be part of something bigger that has done wonders to Europe and many many countries who are part of it

lol. Ask the millions of unemployed in Europe how they feel about the "European spirit". (EU unemployment is double UK unemployment).

As pointed out earlier, in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC as its eighth member, the EEC the had 31% of world economic output. Two years ago, with a whooping 28 members, the EU just had 17% of world economic output, which underlies the shrinking role of the EU in the world economy. It will get worse.

prawnsambo

youcantakethat wrote: »

Was there not a famous Irish politician who went over to England just before the referendum, and he put his foot in it, and his attempt to convince the undecided to vote "Remain" backfired. In the words of some English, they were reminded where some of the tens of billions of pounds of EU contributions had gone. They did not like it (would we like it if an English leading politician come over here a few days before a referendum and told us how to vote) and the vote swung.

Would we like it? Not really, but that didn't stop them.


Farage calls for no vote in referendum.

Irish Praetorian

youcantakethat wrote: »

lol. Ask the millions of unemployed in Europe how they feel about the "European spirit". (EU unemployment is double UK unemployment).

As pointed out earlier, in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC as its eighth member, the EEC the had 31% of world economic output. Two years ago, with a whooping 28 members, the EU just had 17% of world economic output, which underlies the shrinking role of the EU in the world economy. It will get worse.

I'm having a little trouble understanding this line of argument, you're essentially stating that the EU is a shrinking part of the world economy - which seems fair - so the UK (which is also a shrinking part of the world economy) instead of cooperating with other mature economies undergoing a similar process, should instead...? Try to do better as an even smaller part of the world economy? Rush to the bottom? Try to escape it all in some kind of neo-autarky?

Professor Moriarty

youcantakethat wrote: »

lol. Ask the millions of unemployed in Europe how they feel about the "European spirit". (EU unemployment is double UK unemployment).

As pointed out earlier, in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC as its eighth member, the EEC the had 31% of world economic output. Two years ago, with a whooping 28 members, the EU just had 17% of world economic output, which underlies the shrinking role of the EU in the world economy. It will get worse.

Did you mean whopping rather than 'whooping'? Or maybe not. Tell me, apart from a few swivel-eyed ERG type loons, is any British politician suggesting that Britain would have fared better outside the EEC/EU? Anyone at all?

youcantakethat

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

should instead...?

Stand on its own two feet, as the sixth biggest economy in the world, and which still exports more outside the EU than to within the EU.