Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ilovesmybrick · 26-02-2019 6:58pm

What Goes On in Those Brexit Talks in Brussels? ‘Nothing,’ Document Says

If this is really the case May will have to have something very concrete to get an extension.

The result, he said, was that Ms. May went into negotiations without a position and without anything to request. “She’s saying, ‘I need you to give me something. Tell me what it is,’ ” Professor Travers said...“The visit was just to win time, because content-wise it was nothing.”

Jamiekelly · 26-02-2019 7:06pm

The entire impact report is grim but the most worrying parts are clearly the tarrifs and Northern Ireland section 31-38.

-"The EU would introduce tariffs of around 70% on beef and 45% on lamb exports, and
10% on finished automotive vehicles."

-"Northern Ireland is particularly vulnerable given its
high proportion of, and reliance upon SMEs (75% of all private sector employment)
and the number of businesses who trade directly with Ireland (Northern Ireland’s
largest international export market). The agri-food sector is a disproportionately
large part of Northern Ireland’s economy and located predominantly in border / rural
areas. It is particularly vulnerable given its reliance on cross-border supply chains
in the production stage and in finished products"

The DUP can try and spin that however they wish, that's a disaster that can't be glossed over. No amount of "leave means leave" and "the will of the people" Brexiteer slogan slinging will keep the DUP safe in an election if there's a no deal Brexit. Between tarrifs of 45-70% being introduced and cross border integration with the Republic being ripped apart, NI won't have much of an agriculture sector left if the DUP get their way. How can anyone actually campaign for this?

-"Overall, the cumulative impact from a ‘no deal’ scenario is expected to be more
severe in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain, and to last for longer. This is
because of Northern Ireland’s unique circumstances, including in particular its
geographical position as the only part of the UK with a land border with the EU, and
the current lack of an Executive in Northern Ireland."

Interesting that they now have no problem pointing out the lack of Stormont in NI as a unique circumstance. They could have put plenty of other examples in place of that but didn't. They would usually skirt around it just to play safe. Also the DUP have been very soft in their language as of late so I suspect they may have been told firmly by TM that direct rule from Westminster is temporary and that she could throw the DUP under the bus by calling an election any time she pleases.

Imreoir2 · 26-02-2019 7:07pm

Having looked through it, I think this is one of the most significant sections:

Despite communications from the Government, there is little evidence that businesses are preparing in earnest for a no deal scenario, and evidence indicates that readiness of small and medium-sized enterprises in particular is low. For example, without an Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number, businesses would not be able to complete the necessary customs documentation for goods they are importing. As an EORI number registration is one of the most basic and straightforward parts of the process most businesses would need to undertake to prepare for no deal, this is assumed to be a generous indicator of overall readiness. As of February 2019 there had only been around 40,000 registrations for an EORI number, against an estimate of around 240,000 EU-only trading businesses. There is capacity to sign up 11,000 businesses per day, and so this position could change rapidly with behaviour change from businesses. In practice, the UK’s approach is based on, in the short-term, allowing hauliers to pass through the border without stopping, but they would be stopped if taking goods into France without the right paperwork. The lack of preparation for EU controls - of which this is an example - greatly increases the probability of disruption.

Less than 20% of EU-only trading UK businesses have completed "the most basic and straightforward parts of the process" to be able to trade with the EU post Brexit.

The population of the UK is clearly living in fantisy land when it comes to the reality of what is faceing them. If there was a no-deal Brexit on March 29th it would take nearly a month just to get all of the business that need an EORI number registered for one. Can you imagine the chaos in April when well over half of UK businesses that trade with the EU realise that they can't get the paperwork they need to continue trading and it could take a month before they can sort it out?

Expectations of traffic jams in Dover may well be exagerated, they wont have the bloody paperwork to leave the country so why bother driving down in the first place!

Itssoeasy · 26-02-2019 7:20pm

It's interesting to hear the R&A pipe up in relation to the open championship this year which is being held at royal port rush in Northern Ireland. They said they've a load of containers to ship starting in April for the event in June and they wanted clarity on what would happen ? You'd forget sometimes that sporting events aren't immune from brexit.

VinLieger · 26-02-2019 7:20pm

Im actually sad downcow et al arent around just to see the kind of bizarre spin they'd try put on this

Are there any pro brexit people left? If so whats your take on the report?

josip · 26-02-2019 7:24pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Having looked through it, I think this is one of the most significant sections:

Less than 20% of EU-only trading UK businesses have completed "the most basic and straightforward parts of the process" to be able to trade with the EU post Brexit.

The population of the UK is clearly living in fantisy land when it comes to the reality of what is faceing them. If there was a no-deal Brexit on March 29th it would take nearly a month just to get all of the business that need an EORI number registered for one. Can you imagine the chaos in April when well over half of UK businesses that trade with the EU realise that they can't get the paperwork they need to continue trading and it could take a month before they can sort it out?

Expectations of traffic jams in Dover may well be exagerated, they wont have the bloody paperwork to leave the country so why bother driving down in the first place!

Agreed. We're a tiny software firm based in Ireland with some customers in the UK.
Nevertheless, Enterprise Ireland alerted us some months ago about getting our EORI in order, based on VAT3 declarations that showed we trade with the UK.
Our UK customers say, "...I'm sure the politicians will sort something out..."

Ishmael · 26-02-2019 7:28pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So I've not been following today in detail but I watch a 1:50 minute video of Teresa May in the commons. So, let me get it straight. There will be a vote on Teresa mays deal on march 12th and if that is defeated then the next day there will be a vote of the no deal option and the day after there could be a vote on extending the A50 process. Do I have that mostly right ?

Essentially, yes.

She did indicate that they would not seek to extend beyond the June European elections and made a statement that there was no way to take a "No Deal" scenario off the table as to do that, they either need to agree a deal or cancel Brexit.

The votes do seem a little odd. Would it not make more sense to have the second vote as "Extension vs No Deal" and save themselves a day of faffing about.

Synode · 26-02-2019 7:29pm

Its laughable that the UK government think the threat of a no deal brexit is a bargaining chip that can be used against the EU. Akin to threatening to shooting yourself in the foot to get what you want

BonnieSituation · 26-02-2019 7:39pm

Synode wrote: »

Its laughable that the UK government think the threat of a no deal brexit is a bargaining chip that can be used against the EU. Akin to threatening to shooting yourself in the foot to get what you want

Someone was reading Fintan O'Toole today.

Synode · 26-02-2019 7:41pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Someone was reading Fintan O'Toole today.

Don't read newspapers. Was he saying the same thing?

john9876 · 26-02-2019 7:48pm

So No Deal is so catastrophic that it's probably going to be taken off the table ... for 3 months ... but then it will be ok to put back on the table again! Bizarre.

CelticRambler · 26-02-2019 7:53pm

Anyone know why they're stringing these three votes out over three days? They had six votes, one after the other, on those amendments a little while ago. Even if the motion needs to be debated (again ... :rolleyes: ), given the circumstances, why can't they schedule one vote for the morning, one for the afternoon and one for the evening? It's not like they've got the luxury of endless business days in which to act on the eventual outcome ...

54and56 · 26-02-2019 7:53pm

Ishmael wrote: »

Essentially, yes.

She did indicate that they would not seek to extend beyond the June European elections and made a statement that there was no way to take a "No Deal" scenario off the table as to do that, they either need to agree a deal or cancel Brexit.

The votes do seem a little odd. Would it not make more sense to have the second vote as "Extension vs No Deal" and save themselves a day of faffing about.

So let's (safely?) assume TM gets a few tweaks and clarifications written into the Political Declaration alongside a legally binding codicil that the EU will withdraw the backstop as soon as "Alternative Arrangements" are identified which meet X, Y & Z criteria thus allowing the British / EU border in Ireland to be as seamless as it currently is but that the ERG and DUP still aren't happy (are they ever?) so the negotiated WA is voted down a 2nd time.

Then, on the 2nd day a vote is held taking a No Deal off the table and that is successful but on the 3rd day the vote to apply for an extension of A50 is defeated, what happens then? With no deal agreed and no extension to A50 doesn't A50 carry on regardless of any vote against No Deal in the HoC and the UK will sleepwalk over the No Deal cliff on March 29th as the A50 notice remains binding and all EU treaties etc will no longer be applicable to the UK.

Is this a deeply clever chess move or just more ill thought through bumbling?

Confused.com

ancapailldorcha · 26-02-2019 7:55pm

Post deleted. No insults please.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-02-2019 7:56pm

This little fact from the preparedness document posted earlier should give some pause for thought :

Approximately 8 out of every 10 lorries in UK roads is an EU haulier

What could possibly go wrong ?

Imreoir2 · 26-02-2019 7:57pm

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

So let's (safely?) assume TM gets a few tweaks and clarifications written into the Political Declaration alongside a legally binding codicil that the EU will withdraw the backstop as soon as "Alternative Arrangements" are identified which meet X, Y & Z criteria thus allowing the British / EU border in Ireland to be as seamless as it currently is but that the ERG and DUP still aren't happy (are they ever?) so the negotiated WA is voted down a 2nd time.

Then, on the 2nd day a vote is held taking a No Deal off the table and that is successful but on the 3rd day the vote to apply for an extension of A50 is defeated, what happens then? With no deal agreed and no extension to A50 doesn't A50 carry on regardless of any vote against No Deal in the HoC and the UK will sleepwalk over the No Deal cliff on March 29th as the A50 notice remains binding and all EU treaties etc will no longer be applicable to the UK.

Is this a deeply clever chess move or just more ill thought through bumbling?

Confused.com

Surely the only possible way to comply with all three votes would be to revoke A50?

gooch2k9 · 26-02-2019 7:58pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Anyone know why they're stringing these three votes out over three days? They had six votes, one after the other, on those amendments a little while ago. Even if the motion needs to be debated (again ... :rolleyes: ), given the circumstances, why can't they schedule one vote for the morning, one for the afternoon and one for the evening? It's not like they've got the luxury of endless business days in which to act on the eventual outcome ...

Gives the whips time to work I'd imagine. Lots of comments on how May wouldn't be drawn on how the government would whip in any of these votes.

It's not like they actually debate the merits of any of these bills. Take turns standing up and asking May to commit to whatever they want/she said etc.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-02-2019 8:00pm

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I have to disagree on this. Lets say a 2nd referendum occurred do people honestly think that would be the end of it all?

There would 17.4 million royally pissed off people, there is over a 100 MPs who are part of or strongly support the ERG and that is before we even mention the media. These people are not all going to change their minds.

Tory voters are dying off at 2% a year due to old age.
So after three years that could be a million fewer in the 17.4 million.

What kind of message does that send ?

(Yes I know it wasn't all OAP's and even then the older generation that remembered the post war period voted remain, but still. )

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree. I don't know how close to the mark polls can get but the sheer levels of farce of the past 2 years exceeded everyone's expectations. Plus you have how many 15+ year olds from 2016 now able to vote.

BonnieSituation · 26-02-2019 8:10pm

We'll try that again...

Nigel is back again... probably lying too...

Mr Farage told Sky News's All-Out Politics: "Honestly, if we are offered Brexit in name only or Remain, why on Earth would I vote? I would go on holiday. It would be an outrage.

"Remain shouldn't even be on the ballot paper, but if we are forced to this, it would have to be Remain or a clean Brexit."

Mr Farage said if the choice was Mrs May's deal or Remain, "I wouldn't campaign and I wouldn't vote because it wouldn't offer me Brexit".

He suggested that a second referendum result would be invalid if significant numbers of Leave supporters followed his lead and refused to take part.

"You have to have a certain level of turnout for any referendum to be valid," he said.

How in the name of God does he still get away with this nonsense?

briany · 26-02-2019 8:11pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But Cameron did not call the referendum because he wanted Brexit, he just wanted to keep the Eurosceptics in his party happy. When he promised a referendum, he did not expect to win the next election. And when he called the referendum, he expected remain to win.

Someone said he expected another coalition with the Lib Dems. That's madness. The Conservatives systematically butchered key Lib Dem pledges (especially the tuition fees), and the Lib Dems went along with it. Lib Dem support plummeted accordingly. If Cameron couldn't see that Lib Dem support was flat-lining, what the hell was he doing all day every day? He can't read every poll, sure, but he has advisers to do that and report to him. Crazy stuff altogether.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We'll try that again...

Nigel is back again... probably lying too...

How in the name of God does he still get away with this nonsense?

If May cannot get her deal through parliament, whenever she decides to hold the next 'meaningful vote', she might as well forget it. Referendum with Brexit/No-Deal and Remain as the two options.

Zubeneschamali · 26-02-2019 8:13pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The population of the UK is clearly living in fantisy land when it comes to the reality of what is faceing them.

No, I think the population is grand. No Deal is impossible, it can't be done, it is a feeble bluff. Preparations for it would be a total waste, and businesses in the UK have more sense.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-02-2019 8:23pm

Peregrinus wrote: »

Fascinating trivial fact of the day: the entire EU public service employed by all the EU institutions (46,000, as stated) is smaller than the civilian staff of the UK Ministry of Defence, where 57,000 civil servants are employed to administer armed forces containing 135,000 active service personnel - a ratio of one civil servant for every 2.4 service personnel

Another trivial fact,
Of 133 big UK government projects, only 2 are rated Green - Successful delivery of the project on time, budget and quality appears highly likely

The Infrastructure and Projects Authority annual report made grim reading. Released last year using data from September 2017. So no major Brexit impact yet. It's more an indicator of how likely eborders and other techno-solutions are likely to be delivered.

Skip down to the 22nd page

PSBP Private Finance DfE
To rebuild 46 of the schools in the worst condition across England through Private Finance

Search and Rescue Helicopters
DfT To manage the delivery of a Search and Rescue Helicopter contract for the provision of search and rescue helicopter services for the UK.

prawnsambo · 26-02-2019 8:37pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, I think the population is grand. No Deal is impossible, it can't be done, it is a feeble bluff. Preparations for it would be a total waste, and businesses in the UK have more sense.

It's hardly impossible. It's the default if nothing else gets through the HoC. And it still looks like getting a bag of cats to turn their attention to getting out of the bag.

Leroy42 · 26-02-2019 8:45pm

While the report makes grim reading, my initial reaction is 'is that it?'. That is the summary of what could happen in a no deal?

Look at the section on Gibraltar, no details just vague words on hope and possibility.

The government is actively preparing for No Deal yet this is all they publish?

An Ciarraioch · 26-02-2019 9:09pm

And the one saving grace of a No Deal Brexit, duty-free, has been eliminated by legislation:

https://www.thejournal.ie/duty-free-brexit-4514601-Feb2019/

WomanSkirtFan8 · 26-02-2019 9:33pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We'll try that again...

Nigel is back again... probably lying too...

How in the name of God does he still get away with this nonsense?

he gets away with all of that rubbish because no british journalist or politician has the backbone or the balls to challenge him on what he says.

:rolleyes:

54and56 · 26-02-2019 9:35pm

Nicked from Reddit

There's a great big piece of that process missing i.e. what happens at the end of an extension period if a tweaked version of the WA won't pass the HoC???

Surely the only logical choice left at that point, given a No Deal won't pass the HoC, is to give the people a choice between the best and final version of TM's WA or Remain in a binding "confirmatory" referendum which instructs the HoC to proceed on the basis of the vote with no more amendments, delays or other faffing around.

In that scenario I could see the EU granting a 2nd extension in order to allow the HoC to pass the necessary legislation etc

Leroy42 · 26-02-2019 9:43pm

The end of the extension period without a deal means No deal. That is why this series of votes (if they ever take place) is so odd. If they actually vote against No Deal they they are effectively voting for TM deal (which they would have just voted against) or remain.

Of course they will aim for an extension but why would the EU offer anything when they are out of options? (They are out of options now anyway but still they pretend they are not.) So after 3 months, the EU has given nothing what do they do? Remain is the only option left unless they reopen the votes on Option 1 & 2, and then why not rerun the ref at that point?

I understand that TM & No 10 is simply trying to avoid the Cooper/Letwin vote winning and also avoiding more resignations, but I am not sure they have thought this one through properly.

CelticRambler · 26-02-2019 9:50pm

youcantakethat wrote: »

... but I am not sure they have thought this one through properly.

This one?

Is there anything they've done in the last three years that's been thought through properly? :rolleyes:

2ygb4cmqetsjhx · 26-02-2019 9:54pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

This one?

Is there anything they've done in the last three years that's been thought through properly? :rolleyes:

The SNAP election. May thought it through and properly thought she would get a majority based on polling but it backfired.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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