Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ziggyman17 · 02-02-2019 9:22pm

so if the UK crashes out with a no-deal, will that make them untrustworthy among other nations when looking to set up trading deals ? To me they have always been untrustworthy but now the world will get to see them for what they really are.......

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2019 9:23pm

McGiver wrote: »

no amount of appeasement or compromising will make HMG a trustworthy negotiating party, it seems rather the opposite.

Does the UK need reminding about the dangers of appeasement ?

And is the Withdrawal Agreement to be treated as just a piece of paper ?

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 9:32pm

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Generally that includes Silema, St.J and many other nearby urban areas which are all a stones throw away. Again check your figures as 480 is wrong, as it calling Cork (city area) anywhere near to 1/2m.

My figures for Malta seem to be wrong on the high side - CIA factbook as the whole country (including Gozo) at 450k. Where have you seen 550k?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mt.html

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Val already has (developed) docklands, hence all the crusie ships. There are similaraities as others have mentioned driving on left, 3pin plugs, and even red postboxes/phoneboxes. Not to mention 'tax friendly' factors in both. The 4th Ind Rev generally won't lend itself towards heavy industry/manufacturing.

Their docklands are already developed - so where are all the new offices and residential buildings for migrating companies to go?

It's a pretty silly argument to suggest that 'Valetta City' (pop. 6000 or so) is effectively the whole of Malta all the way across to Melieha Bay.

I'm sure you will also have noted how long it takes to travel around Malta. Travelling from Ballincollig to Carrigaline will take you a while, but not nearly as long as it would take to cross from one side of 'Valleta City' (i.e. Malta apparently) to the other...

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-02-2019 9:44pm

Anthracite wrote: »

My figures for Malta seem to be wrong on the high side

I'm sure you will also have noted how long it takes to travel around Malta. Travelling from Ballincollig to Carrigaline will take you a while, but not nearly as long as it would take to cross from one side of 'Valleta City' (i.e. Malta apparently) to the other...

Ah yes about 460, not sure where 550 came from lol.

Essentialy it's more urban (they don't stop building at the 8th floor), the 460k is mainly centrally located on the SE (CBD) of the island (316 km² total area), easy to access quickly on scooter, whereas Cork (and county) is dispersed over 7,500 km² - a bit of a drive about alright.

To me Cork is more of a large town, and somewhat remote (it would a whole hour less in time to drive to Belfast from Dublin, than Dublin to Cork.)

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2019 9:48pm

ziggyman17 wrote: »

so if the UK crashes out with a no-deal, will that make them untrustworthy among other nations when looking to set up trading deals ? To me they have always been untrustworthy but now the world will get to see them for what they really are.......

The most important trade deal of all has already been completed!

http://twitter.com/KristinaHafoss/status/1090994250169356289

bob mcbob · 02-02-2019 10:06pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

We fought the Establishment and the Establishment lost.

I heard it described differently - That the English working class decided to make a protest about the bed they were sleeping in by sh**ing in it .

For Forks Sake · 02-02-2019 10:09pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The most important trade deal of all has already been completed!

http://twitter.com/KristinaHafoss/status/1090994250169356289

I thought they were prohibited from signing any deals whilst still in the EU?

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-02-2019 10:16pm

Assuming hard exit, will the regular Joe on the street, face some rations?
(council taxes, transport, public services, tv licence and most essentials going up in price regardless).

The green bookies have these items listed, with a shortening price on Beef produce (20/1) to be the 1st to be withheld.
Milk also a possibility (12, or 11/1). UHT/Powder white just isn't the same in the breakfast tea.

Come to think of it, there has been widespread 'veg burger/sausages' promotions recently.
Will there be regular lethargic queues weighing outside Greggs stores on the horizon?

Strazdas · 02-02-2019 10:31pm

For Forks Sake wrote: »

I thought they were prohibited from signing any deals whilst still in the EU?

Well the Faroe Islands is not an independent country : it is a devolved region of Denmark (similar to Wales and NI's status within the UK)

tuxy · 02-02-2019 10:36pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Well the Faroe Islands is not an independent country : it is a devolved region of Denmark (similar to Wales and NI's status within the UK)

But they are outside the customs area of Denmark so when it comes to trade they are independent.

Water John · 02-02-2019 10:42pm

So UK have signed a deal with Mainland.

briany · 02-02-2019 11:08pm

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Assuming hard exit, will the regular Joe on the street, face some rations?
(council taxes, transport, public services, tv licence and most essentials going up in price regardless).

The green bookies have these items listed, with a shortening price on Beef produce (20/1) to be the 1st to be withheld.
Milk also a possibility (12, or 11/1). UHT/Powder white just isn't the same in the breakfast tea.

Come to think of it, there has been widespread 'veg burger/sausages' promotions recently.
Will there be regular lethargic queues weighing outside Greggs stores on the horizon?

When you put the prospect of shortages to true blue Brexiteers, their response seems to be either that it is scaremongering or that firms will find a way to import whatever's necessary to meed demand. Companies like Tesco are such major business concerns that they will be able work around whatever obstacles are put in place by a no-deal Brexit, is their reasoning. And there's very little you can say to convince such Brexiteers otherwise. Maybe they think a no-deal will be the second coming of the cockney spiv who can get you anything for a bob.

It just seems to me that there is a chasm that cannot be bridged between whatever people say will happen after Brexit, and whatever will actually happen after Brexit. It's a bit like the mystery of death - many people have an idea one way or another, but by the point that it is known for sure, it will be too late to go back and tell everyone.

Graphs and statistics just bounce off the skulls of Brexiteers like Nerf darts.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2019 11:08pm

For Forks Sake wrote: »

I thought they were prohibited from signing any deals whilst still in the EU?

Fish.

UK and Faroe Islands sign trade continuity agreement
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-faroe-islands-sign-trade-continuity-agreement

The new UK-Faroe Islands agreement replicates the existing trading arrangements as far as possible. It will come into effect as soon as the implementation period ends in January 2021, or on 29 March 2019 if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

CelticRambler · 02-02-2019 11:25pm

briany wrote: »

And there's very little you can say to convince such Brexiteers otherwise. Maybe they think a no-deal will be the second coming of the cockney spiv who can get you anything for a bob.

Well, yerman the other day was talking about smuggling lettuces over from France ... I suppose it's only to be expected that a certain amount of lawbreaking is to be condoned by people who believe in a referendum that was won on the back of criminal activity. :rolleyes:

Meanwhile, about that Faroe trade deal. I'm confused:

The new UK-Faroe Islands agreement replicates the existing trading arrangements as far as possible.

this agreement will allow imports to continue tariff-free and enable businesses to trade as freely as they do now.

Consumers in the UK will potentially benefit from greater choice and lower prices for fish and seafood

How will UK consumers benefit from "greater choice and lower prices" by replicating the existing (tariff-free) arrangements?

Oh well, at least the hungry Brit won't be disappointed if he follows Sammy's advice to "go down the chippy." :pac:

Harry Palmr · 02-02-2019 11:32pm

A breakaway party is threatened - from the Labour side which means they'll have a meeting, be unable to outline a basic policy platform, get bored and go home with no party actually formed.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2019 11:37pm

Oh gawd... this doesn't bode well for the Rest Of The World deals.

The new UK-Faroe Islands agreement replicates the existing trading arrangements as far as possible. ie. the UK is NOT taking back control of fishing.

It took two years to do a status quo deal with a single product island nation of 51,000. And the UK has not won any concessions from them even though the Faroese are totally dependent on selling fish which forms 98% of exports.

This means the Faroese can continue to sell fish caught in UK waters back to the UK :rolleyes:
https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/supply-trade/mackerel-deal-between-eu-and-faroe-islands-is-criticized-by-scottish-commercial-fishing-groups

Scottish boats did not catch any mackerel in Faroese waters in 2015, while Faroese boats caught 33,000 metric tons of mackerel in E.U. waters – mostly in the Scottish EEZ – according to a report by U.K. authority Seafish.

In a press release, the Scottish Pelagic Fishermen and the Scottish Pelagic Processors Association said the bilateral deal is “heavily skewed” in favor of the Faroese and pushed for a fairer access agreement to be negotiated.

Anthracite · 03-02-2019 12:20am

It's not a good day when you get your pants pulled down by the mighty Faroe Islands.

EdgeCase · 03-02-2019 12:26am

I'd assume that if the EU just sits and waits that the UK will eventually end up signing a trade deal on EU terms anyway.

They've absolutely zero leverage other than pure arrogance and bluster.

Strazdas · 03-02-2019 12:27am

briany wrote: »

When you put the prospect of shortages to true blue Brexiteers, their response seems to be either that it is scaremongering or that firms will find a way to import whatever's necessary to meed demand. Companies like Tesco are such major business concerns that they will be able work around whatever obstacles are put in place by a no-deal Brexit, is their reasoning. And there's very little you can say to convince such Brexiteers otherwise. Maybe they think a no-deal will be the second coming of the cockney spiv who can get you anything for a bob.

It just seems to me that there is a chasm that cannot be bridged between whatever people say will happen after Brexit, and whatever will actually happen after Brexit. It's a bit like the mystery of death - many people have an idea one way or another, but by the point that it is known for sure, it will be too late to go back and tell everyone.

Graphs and statistics just bounce off the skulls of Brexiteers like Nerf darts.

Virtually the only thing that will register with Leave voters is if they succeed in crashing the economy. When you watch the discussions on forums and Twitter, they are not actually engaging in debate.....they are merely spouting Vote Leave slogans and soundbites. Anyone who says anything critical about Brexit is dismissed as spreading lies or scaremongering.

Seth Brundle · 03-02-2019 12:38am

MSNBC's take on Brexit (things are bad when the American media can explain it better than some of the UK stations!)...

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1091409385178439681?s=19

branie2 · 03-02-2019 12:43am

No deal Brexit - disaster in my book

Leonard Hofstadter · 03-02-2019 12:46am

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'd assume that if the EU just sits and waits that the UK will eventually end up signing a trade deal on EU terms anyway.

They've absolutely zero leverage other than pure arrogance and bluster.

And that's exactly why our Government must not give them an inch regarding the backstop. I don't think they will, otherwise they will be absolutely decimated in any subsequent election. No deal means absolute chaos and they will have no leverage on anything with the EU, to paraphrase a Leave campaign phrase, 'they need us more than we need them', so item number one in any free trade deal will be the backstop, closely followed by the €45 billion.

briany · 03-02-2019 12:47am

Strazdas wrote: »

Virtually the only thing that will register with Leave voters is if they succeed in crashing the economy. When you watch the discussions on forums and Twitter, they are not actually engaging in debate.....they are merely spouting Vote Leave slogans and soundbites. Anyone who says anything critical about Brexit is dismissed as spreading lies or scaremongering.

It's crazy. If you watch Question Time on BBC, it's the same exact points being made by audience members of both persuasions, week in and week out. It's nearly even the same wording.

"..... so it should be put back to the people!!....." (round of applause)

".....17.4 million!!...." (round of applause)

I think the sloganeering is going on with both sides. Both sides are absolutely entrenched. There's as much chance of the line moving as there was for the Western Front in 1916.

Strazdas · 03-02-2019 12:58am

briany wrote: »

It's crazy. If you watch Question Time on BBC, it's the same exact points being made by audience members of both persuasions, week in and week out. It's nearly even the same wording.

"..... so it should be put back to the people!!....." (round of applause)

".....17.4 million!!...." (round of applause)

I think the sloganeering is going on with both sides. Both sides are absolutely entrenched. There's as much chance of the line moving as there was for the Western Front in 1916.

It's more like a cult or a political ideology, rather than 'having a position on the referendum result'. People are coming from it as if the political ideology is the right one no matter what and are fitting all their arguments around it.

They're going to wreck their country because of it though. If they cannot compromise and they insist on the ideology being implemented, it can only end very badly. They are like a bunch of punch drunk Marxists who suddenly have the opportunity to make the UK a Marxist country via a referendum result.

Capt'n Midnight · 03-02-2019 1:05am

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So, as I understand it:
The SUV is currently built in Japan,

No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,

We do not know the reason this would have happened

Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn

It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

You can argue about one product in one plant, but when the entire industry is drawing in their horns ?
n 2015, car manufacturers invested £2.5bn in the UK. Since then it has fallen ever year and in 2018 was just £589m. '

Inward investment fell 46.5% to £588.6m last year from £1.1bn in 2017, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) says.

Production fell 9.1% to 1.52m vehicles, with output for the UK and for export falling 16.3% and 7.3% respectively.

To put that in perspective, both VW and Ford have margins of 4%
So the £600m investment shortfall would represent £15 billion of income.

Rain Ascending · 03-02-2019 2:23am

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So, as I understand it:
The SUV is currently built in Japan,

No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,

We do not know the reason this would have happened

Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn

It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

We'll know one way or the other on Monday -- there are media reports that there will be an announcement then.

But either way, this narrative ignores one of the major problems with a no-deal Brexit: having a 10% tariff slapped on a firm's product line makes a marginal business case deeply negative. In other words, the first big casualties of Brexit will be those firms, those investment proposals that were struggling in the first place.

Here's an example from Ireland. Not long after the Brexit vote, the resulting drop in the value of the pound with respect to the Euro put a mushroom producer out of business. Their main market with the UK and it was a low margin business that couldn't withstand the shock of the currency shift.

A mushroom producer in Ireland out of business; major car manufacturer in the UK cancelling future investment. The weaker companies first.

But the disruption of Brexit on the business world is just beginning and will extend into healthier businesses. For a sense of the scale of it, consider this report from the UK Institute of Directors showing that 29% of their members are considering making or have already made Brexit-related investments in the EU. That's investment being diverted from the UK and will be a significant drag on the UK economy that's very hard to reverse with the UK dropping out of the Single Market and the customs union.

A large, stable market is always going to leach investment out of a neighboring small unstable one... And that is why the Republic of Ireland, to touch on another discussion here, won't jeopardize its membership of the Single Market.

Rain Ascending · 03-02-2019 2:35am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

To put that in perspective, both VW and Ford have margins of 4%

Thanks for this figure!

So slapping on a 10% no-deal WTO tariff becomes hugely problematic. If demand is highly elastic, i.e. very price sensitive, then those margins can easily disappear. The best place for production then has to be from within the biggest market (in this case the EU) or in countries with a trade agreement with that market (e.g. Japan). What might have been a long protracted investment discussion between the CEO and his/her direct reports, becomes very, very short indeed...

MPFGLB · 03-02-2019 3:08am

Well the Brexiter economist predicted (and welcomed) the winding down of the car industry in the UK..its a good thing seemingly

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/devastating-future-welsh-manufacturing-predicted-15323164

Zubeneschamali · 03-02-2019 8:04am

MPFGLB wrote: »

Well the Brexiter economist predicted (and welcomed) the winding down of the car industry in the UK..its a good thing seemingly

From that article, in the runup to the referendum in 2016, he said: Obviously protection will be removed quite slowly in response to free trade agreements around the world so it won’t all happen overnight but probably, if you are looking [10 years ahead] we will see it moving up, becoming more productive really.”

This is not at all what is going to happen in a crash-out.

jochenstacker · 03-02-2019 8:05am

MPFGLB wrote: »

Well the Brexiter economist predicted (and welcomed) the winding down of the car industry in the UK..its a good thing seemingly

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/devastating-future-welsh-manufacturing-predicted-15323164

It really goes to show that there are mainly two types of brexiteers.
The first is the type who fell for the lies and the deception of the leave side, who promised them unicorns and rainbows.
The second ones are the leave campaigners who will destroy the lives of the very people who voted for them by destroying the labour market as it exists today.
Brexit is their wet dream, by eroding worker's rights, decimating wages and putting millions of people on the dole.
A desperate workforce is one that will accept any job at any pay and conditions.
And people will gladly vote for their doom if you just bang the propaganda drum hard enough.
This demonstrates the weakness of democracy. The electorate can be exploited by unscrupulous people who manipulate them with lies and deception.

In short, over the next few years the British people will find out that the leave vote was an orchestrated coup by a group of disaster capitalists to get enormously rich by deliberately crashing the country onto a cliff.
IMO they should be tried for treason.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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