Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LuckyLloyd · 12-12-2018 10:10pm

gimli2112 wrote: »

JRM came up with some math that if you discount the MPs on her payroll she lost and it's a terrible result for her.

His crew love spinning math. :rolleyes: He's had his shot and lost, that's the bottom line. Though he'll be well suited with this result as he can stand on the sidelines and roar and shout irrelevancies about how she should go to the Queen, his favourite.

Folkstonian · 12-12-2018 10:10pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well, now what we've got past that Tory naval gazing she still has to get this deal through parliament which looks extremely unlikely.

Just the small matter of a deficit of 117 of her own party, plus 10 DUP votes, to claw back from elsewhere in the house.

Piece of cake for Theresa, right?

devnull · 12-12-2018 10:10pm

gimli2112 wrote: »

JRM came up with some math that if you discount the MPs on her payroll she lost and it's a terrible result for her.

Yet spent the whole of the last year saying that you cannot exclude votes from the Brexit vote because everybodies vote counts and that would be against democracy.

It's laughable, typical little rich boy, changes the rules when he loses because he is so used to getting his own way yet doesn't like it when people do the same.

He's the very worst of selfish, arrogant politicians.

seamus · 12-12-2018 10:10pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well, now what we've got past that Tory naval gazing she still has to get this deal through parliament which looks extremely unlikely.

She claimed she has a legal solution for the backstop.

This should be fun, because she doesn't. And now she's going to prove it, turn the Tories into an even bigger laughing stock and there's nothing they can do about it.

Water John · 12-12-2018 10:10pm

What does she do coming up to 21st Jan? Corbyn is right to wait, he wouldn't win it.
HoC will force a Ext of Art50 and 2nd Ref.

Professor Moriarty · 12-12-2018 10:10pm

gimli2112 wrote: »

JRM came up with some math that if you discount the MPs on her payroll she lost and it's a terrible result for her.

Nasty little insinuation about fellow Tories. Par for the course for Jacob.

An Ciarraioch · 12-12-2018 10:11pm

That effectively kills off the Withdrawal Agreement, presumably.

Enzokk · 12-12-2018 10:11pm

Seems that opinion is split on whether there is good news for her or not. Labour supporters are calling it as a blow while her supporters are ecstatic with the result.

It really doesn't matter as her deal is still not getting through parliament so she may have a majority of support in her party but if she cannot get it through the HoC then it really doesn't matter.

thecretinhop · 12-12-2018 10:12pm

corbyn will have the uk as a third world state if he gets in.

Professor Moriarty · 12-12-2018 10:13pm

thecretinhop wrote: »

corbyn will have the uk as a third world state if he gets in.

Yes, that's his cunning plan.

dr.fuzzenstein · 12-12-2018 10:13pm

devnull wrote: »

63% backing her is a clear mandate if you consider that the ERG consider 52% is a clear mandate for Brexit.

Now the Tories have to wait 12 months for another heave.
Though according to Brexiteers you cannot ever have another vote on the same subject ever again, because that would be undemocratic.
Unless of course it is something completely, entirely different if it is about something they want.

Strazdas · 12-12-2018 10:14pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

Just the small matter of a deficit of 117 of her own party, plus 10 DUP votes, to claw back from elsewhere in the house.

Piece of cake for Theresa, right?

Tony Connelly saying 117 is bad news for the deal : he says those same MPs will turn all their attention to voting it down now.

awec · 12-12-2018 10:14pm

It's really hard to see how we avoid a vote of some description from this point, either an election or a people's vote.

listermint · 12-12-2018 10:15pm

thecretinhop wrote: »

corbyn will have the uk as a third world state if he gets in.

As would 117 Tories it seems.

Follow the money. There's chaos investments made there...

Dyr · 12-12-2018 10:16pm

thecretinhop wrote: »

corbyn will have the uk as a third world state if he gets in.

He'd wanna crack on so, cos the Tories are beating him to it

Capt'n Midnight · 12-12-2018 10:16pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

All of Scotland hates the tories - except of course those who voted in 13 Conservative MPs at the last general election.

Which is 12 more than the previous election.

And probably 12 more than the next unless they can deliver on fishing rights and other Brexit related stuff. And we aren't even talking Hard Brexit.

I’d expect any other PM to resign. Theresa has a different outlook though, so all bets are off.

The lady's not for turning.

seamus · 12-12-2018 10:16pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

Just the small matter of a deficit of 117 of her own party, plus 10 DUP votes, to claw back from elsewhere in the house.

That's not how party politics work. You toe the party line or you leave. She only needs to find someone to replace the DUP.
As much as the SNP hate them, Sturgeon might be the one to turn to, in exchange for assurances about Scottish interests.

UsedToWait · 12-12-2018 10:18pm

awec wrote: »

It's really hard to see how we avoid a vote of some description from this point, either an election or a people's vote.

I think it's really hard to see anything but a complete breakdown / eventual reorganisation of the UK polity at this stage.

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 10:18pm

Interesting point made on Sky that in the leadership campaign which she won two years ago, she only got 199 votes in the second ballot. She got one more.

Of course, she was going against 2 people.

Enzokk · 12-12-2018 10:18pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

Just the small matter of a deficit of 117 of her own party, plus 10 DUP votes, to claw back from elsewhere in the house.

Piece of cake for Theresa, right?

Not just the 117, you would have people who voted for her and who will still vote against the deal as they don't want a Brexiter coming in but cannot support the deal.

Let's just remember,

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1072962227127418909

James O'Brien, "Even tonight, nothing substantive has changed since the ‘red lines’ met the Good Friday Agreement, and the weaponisation of free movement met the indivisibilty of the four freedoms. Literally nothing.
As you were."

Also if there was a no confidence motion in the house, how will those 117 that voted against her be able to argue that she is not good enough for the Conservative Party but she is good enough to be PM?

12-12-2018 10:18pm

devnull wrote: »

63% backing her is a clear mandate if you consider that the ERG consider 52% is a clear mandate for Brexit.

Its a clear mandate within the Tory party only. As to the overall situation, nothing has really moved on. Unintentionally we now know more than we did a few minutes ago as to how many Tories would have voted against TM’s deal had it gone before the HoC, ie, it would have been crushed when combined with the opposition of Labour, the SNP, DUP etc. With the EU declaring that the WA can’t be changed, I’m not sure what the British government can do now to satisfy their own domestic audience.

Royale with Cheese · 12-12-2018 10:19pm

The presenter on BBC to Rees Mogg just before he signed off - You must have a busy night of plotting ahead of you

end of the road · 12-12-2018 10:20pm

i don't particularly like may or what she stands for but i'm glad she has survived the vote. the deal she got was the best that was going to be got, and while it pleases no-body, perhapse it might ultimately cause the downfall of brexit (maybe that is her plan but perhapse i'm giving her a bit to much credit)
my view is that she is the only one who can lead the conservatives that is being realistic about what kind of brexit can actually be delivered. i dread to think what would have happened had she not survived, mog or johnson as her replacement would have been horrific as they have delusians of grandure in my view and i fear any new "deal" they would have got would be a lot worse.
ultimately the only really good deal is remain.

devnull · 12-12-2018 10:21pm

Can't believe Richard Drax on Sky News now.

He's stating that there was a clear mandate for leave and that people didn't want to be half in and half out and wanted to be out and the people clearly thought this but there shouldn't be a second vote because the people have spoken.

He then goes on without taking much of a brath saying that despite the fact May has won the vote she doesn't have a big enough mandate and too many people voted against confidence in her so with such a small majority she should not continue and she should resign.

What a bunch of hypocrites - notice how they change their definition of mandate and what a small majority is depending on what vote they are talking about, so many contradictions and different rules for different things, they are really a disgrace.

Infini · 12-12-2018 10:23pm

awec wrote: »

It's really hard to see how we avoid a vote of some description from this point, either an election or a people's vote.

2nf referendum would be a possibility expecially if combined with an A50 withdrawal. 2nd ref would also have to be between the WA and Remain. No Deal will have to be removed as a factor. A referendum isnt gonna solve anything UNLESS of course Labour
decides to campaign on the remain platform and with Corbyn right now thats not a certainty unlrss he can be armtwisted into it in return for the PMs job.

Water John · 12-12-2018 10:24pm

ERG tie themselves close to the DUP. TM needs the DUP to govern, that's their leverage.
Soubry makes the point, far less bitter than JRM, that in effect the majority of backbenchers did not support her.

Professor Moriarty · 12-12-2018 10:33pm

Soubry and Buckland tearing into each other on Sky. Thought Buckland was going to headbutt her at one stage.

J Mysterio · 12-12-2018 10:34pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

All of Scotland hates the tories - except of course those who voted in 13 Conservative MPs at the last general election.

Shocking result for May in the ballot - one hundred votes against her is catastrophic I think.

I’d expect any other PM to resign. Theresa has a different outlook though, so all bets are off.

Corbyn lost a confidence vote of 172-40 for Labour leader, not a bother on him. I think she did well, all things considered.

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 10:34pm

Brave woman to use part of her speech to talk about domestic governance.

Interesting that she mentioned going to Europe to look for political and legal assurances about the backstop. Did not hint that she will be looking for or expecting changes.

FrancieBrady · 12-12-2018 10:36pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Soubry and Buckland tearing into each other on Sky. Thought Buckland was going to headbutt her at one stage.

I am not aware of a political mess as big as this where shots weren't eventually fired.

The multiple sides seem completely irreconcilable.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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