Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

May has called an emergency conference call with the cabinet. Unknown why just yet.

VinLieger wrote: »

Haven't they done this already countless times by claiming they are being punished for leaving as they won't keep all the benefits of membership? Enough idiots swallow that illogical garbage to keep the express and mail in business.

The knowledge level around the whole EU/Brexit is still absurdly low. Sky News have a regular panel type thing at various locations around the UK and a guy this morning, local business owner, when asked what he think should happen if May's deal is voted down said that the only option is to go back to the EU and get a better deal.

The emergency cabinet conference call is suspected to be due to a move to delay the vote.

Hurrache wrote: »

The knowledge level around the whole EU/Brexit is still absurdly low. Sky News have a regular panel type thing at various locations around the UK and a guy this morning, local business owner, when asked what he think should happen if May's deal is voted down said that the only option is to go back to the EU and get a better deal.

The emergency cabinet conference call is suspected to be due to a move to delay the vote.

Unsurprising really considering in the poll last week on Mays deal that was the most popular response and the only one to achieve above 50%

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's quite possible that Ireland will come under severe pressure to change the backstop.

It's the EU's backstop, not Ireland's. And pressure from who?

Hurrache wrote: »

It's the EU's backstop, not Ireland's. And pressure from who?

Ireland is central to any decision around the backstop. Pressure from the EU and Britain.

robinph wrote: »

If the options for tomorrow become the deal or no brexit, does that give the deal more chance of getting through now though?

When it was the deal or "something else we've not yet figured out" then people from both sides could vote for the ??? option and claim that was the one that best fitted their aims. Are the Brexiteers really going to vote for the no brexit option just because they don't like May's deal?

The EU could have just handed May the way of getting the deal agreed upon as the brexiteers hate the deal, but they hate no brexit more.

If it's down to No Brexit or May's deal then it's a hard choice for the Brexiteers, I think they would go with the May's deal, scheme a coup later on and some sort of disruption. It gives them options, albeit limited. But they don't have enough numbers, I'd argue. It's the Tory Remainers and Labour who will decide. Second ref is the best course of action thereafter to wash their hands and give up any responsibility for Brexit. But isn't the Parliament sovereign? So if the sovereign Parliament rejects the WA but public referendum approves it then isn't that a bit of an impasse and contradictory? The logic dictates that the parliament should trump the referendum as it's sovereign, the people aren't. Unless the referendum is made legally binding explicitly.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I would like to see that happening but such is the atmosphere in Britain now, I can't see how they would simply remain without tearing the country apart.

Not unless it's decided by a referendum. But I agree regardless of the outcome, the country remains divided and politically broken. And the Brexiteers won't go away ever, they'll keep poisoning the British politics. While important issues are not addressed (NHS, austeriry, stagnating wages, immigration reform, poverty, inequality, backward regions, constitutional arrangement etc.).

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's quite possible that Ireland will come under severe pressure to change the backstop. Apart from the implicit and explicit nasty threats to our economy emanating from Tory politicians as they try to ditch the backstop, it also is in the EU's economic interest to ensure that there isn't a hard Brexit. If the only impediment to the deal going through is the backstop, then I expect much communication between Dublin, London and Brussels as to how this might be fudged.

yeah because two years of standing firm on the backstop - now is when the EU will do a volte face to help out some anti EU Tories in their hour of need

seriously?

lawred2 wrote: »

yeah because two years of standing firm on the backstop - now is when the EU will do a volte face to help out some anti EU Tories in their hour of need

seriously?

Umm, yes seriously. Not to help Tories but to suit the EU, in the context of the EU seeing May's agreement as they best option for avoiding a hard Brexit. I think it's a possibility, not a probability, that just right now there is a lot of communication between Dublin, London and Brussels as to how the backstop might be fudged to get the deal through parliament. In fact, I'd be very surprised if there was no talk at all about how it might be fudged. I doubt if it can be fudged enough to suit all, though.

McGiver wrote: »

Not unless it's decided by a referendum. But I agree regardless of the outcome, the country remains divided and politically broken. And the Brexiteers won't go away ever, they'll keep poisoning the British politics.

That's the thing nobody is really talking about. Even if there were another referendum, with 'Remain' on the ballot, and even if that option won, you'd still have this extremely deep divide through the public and politicians. Nobody has any idea how to fix it, but it's not a state you want to be running a country in. It's like trying to run a marathon while suffering from a large leg wound. Possibly doable for a time, but it'll take you out of the race eventually.

Similarly, if the divide is not healed, the Brexiteers will be back, and angrier than ever. And the little bit of time that a Remain vote might have bought will look like a nothing folly in the big picture of history.

cml387 wrote: »

Difinitely major speculation now that vote will be called off. Watch sterling in the next few hours.

just called off? and then what?

May's press conference, assuming she gives one, will be very interesting. Will she adopt a more combative stance with the EU? Will she be playing for more time to convince her own party? She could even resign - I would if I were her.

Hurrache wrote: »

No backstop on the border issue would have suited the EU from the outset and made things a lot lot easier a long time ago.

Absolutely. Brexit would be done and dusted by now.

lawred2 wrote: »

just called off? and then what?

More cakeism or perhaps more kick-the-can-down-the-road-ism? :cool:
But - tick tock is an issue