Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

It's the EU's backstop, not Ireland's. And pressure from who?

Ireland is central to any decision around the backstop. Pressure from the EU and Britain.

seamus

Yeah, I don't think the EU is going to be seeking concessions on the backstop to make the WA sweeter. If anything they'll be holding out olive branches to cancel Brexit completely; that's what is in everyone's best interests. The WA needs to remain unattractive, but just slightly more attractive than no deal at all.

McGiver

robinph wrote: »

If the options for tomorrow become the deal or no brexit, does that give the deal more chance of getting through now though?

When it was the deal or "something else we've not yet figured out" then people from both sides could vote for the ??? option and claim that was the one that best fitted their aims. Are the Brexiteers really going to vote for the no brexit option just because they don't like May's deal?

The EU could have just handed May the way of getting the deal agreed upon as the brexiteers hate the deal, but they hate no brexit more.

If it's down to No Brexit or May's deal then it's a hard choice for the Brexiteers, I think they would go with the May's deal, scheme a coup later on and some sort of disruption. It gives them options, albeit limited. But they don't have enough numbers, I'd argue. It's the Tory Remainers and Labour who will decide. Second ref is the best course of action thereafter to wash their hands and give up any responsibility for Brexit. But isn't the Parliament sovereign? So if the sovereign Parliament rejects the WA but public referendum approves it then isn't that a bit of an impasse and contradictory? The logic dictates that the parliament should trump the referendum as it's sovereign, the people aren't. Unless the referendum is made legally binding explicitly.

Professor Moriarty

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, I don't think the EU is going to be seeking concessions to make the deal sweeter. If anything they'll be holding out olive branches to cancel Brexit completely; that's what is in everyone's best interests.

I would like to see that happening but such is the atmosphere in Britain now, I can't see how they would simply remain without tearing the country apart.

McGiver

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I would like to see that happening but such is the atmosphere in Britain now, I can't see how they would simply remain without tearing the country apart.

Not unless it's decided by a referendum. But I agree regardless of the outcome, the country remains divided and politically broken. And the Brexiteers won't go away ever, they'll keep poisoning the British politics. While important issues are not addressed (NHS, austeriry, stagnating wages, immigration reform, poverty, inequality, backward regions, constitutional arrangement etc.).

Professor Moriarty

McGiver wrote: »

Not unless it's decided by a referendum. But I agree regardless of the outcome, the country remains divided and politically broken. And the Brexiteers won't go away ever, they'll keep poisoning the British politics. While important issues are not addressed (NHS, austeriry, stagnating wages, immigration reform, poverty, inequality, backward regions, constitutional arrangement etc.).

Indeed. The Brexiteers have finally lied their way into prominence and conflated people's genuine grievances into a fantasy that promises Utopia once the dastardly EU is cut off. The Brexiteers aren't going away.

lawred2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's quite possible that Ireland will come under severe pressure to change the backstop. Apart from the implicit and explicit nasty threats to our economy emanating from Tory politicians as they try to ditch the backstop, it also is in the EU's economic interest to ensure that there isn't a hard Brexit. If the only impediment to the deal going through is the backstop, then I expect much communication between Dublin, London and Brussels as to how this might be fudged.

yeah because two years of standing firm on the backstop - now is when the EU will do a volte face to help out some anti EU Tories in their hour of need

seriously?

Mc Love

Mc Love wrote: »

Vote is going ahead as planned tomorrow. No idea what the conference call was for.

Bloomberg reporting vote will be called off now

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-10/may-seeks-last-minute-changes-to-deal-before-vote-brexit-update?srnd=premium-europe

Professor Moriarty

lawred2 wrote: »

yeah because two years of standing firm on the backstop - now is when the EU will do a volte face to help out some anti EU Tories in their hour of need

seriously?

Umm, yes seriously. Not to help Tories but to suit the EU, in the context of the EU seeing May's agreement as they best option for avoiding a hard Brexit. I think it's a possibility, not a probability, that just right now there is a lot of communication between Dublin, London and Brussels as to how the backstop might be fudged to get the deal through parliament. In fact, I'd be very surprised if there was no talk at all about how it might be fudged. I doubt if it can be fudged enough to suit all, though.

cml387

Mc Love wrote: »

Bloomberg reporting vote will be called off now

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-10/may-seeks-last-minute-changes-to-deal-before-vote-brexit-update?srnd=premium-europe

Difinitely major speculation now that vote will be called off. Watch sterling in the next few hours.

briany

McGiver wrote: »

Not unless it's decided by a referendum. But I agree regardless of the outcome, the country remains divided and politically broken. And the Brexiteers won't go away ever, they'll keep poisoning the British politics.

That's the thing nobody is really talking about. Even if there were another referendum, with 'Remain' on the ballot, and even if that option won, you'd still have this extremely deep divide through the public and politicians. Nobody has any idea how to fix it, but it's not a state you want to be running a country in. It's like trying to run a marathon while suffering from a large leg wound. Possibly doable for a time, but it'll take you out of the race eventually.

Similarly, if the divide is not healed, the Brexiteers will be back, and angrier than ever. And the little bit of time that a Remain vote might have bought will look like a nothing folly in the big picture of history.

Professor Moriarty

Mc Love wrote: »

Bloomberg reporting vote will be called off now

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-10/may-seeks-last-minute-changes-to-deal-before-vote-brexit-update?srnd=premium-europe

Kussenberg reporting the same thing. Looks like no vote tomorrow.

lawred2

cml387 wrote: »

Difinitely major speculation now that vote will be called off. Watch sterling in the next few hours.

just called off? and then what?

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Umm, yes seriously. Not to help Tories but to suit the EU, in the context of the EU seeing May's agreement as they best option for avoiding a hard Brexit. I think it's a possibility, not a probability, that just right now there is a lot of communication between Dublin, London and Brussels as to how the backstop might be fudged to get the deal through parliament. In fact, I'd be very surprised if there was no talk at all about how it might be fudged. I doubt if it can be fudged enough to suit all, though.

No backstop on the border issue would have suited the EU from the outset and made things a lot lot easier a long time ago.

Professor Moriarty

May's press conference, assuming she gives one, will be very interesting. Will she adopt a more combative stance with the EU? Will she be playing for more time to convince her own party? She could even resign - I would if I were her.

cml387

lawred2 wrote: »

just called off? and then what?

I'd say this was the result of conversations with Dublin and Brussels yesterday.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

No backstop on the border issue would have suited the EU from the outset and made things a lot lot easier a long time ago.

Absolutely. Brexit would be done and dusted by now.

hill16bhoy

VinLieger wrote: »

By all accounts there is and always has been a majority of MP's in favour of remain, the only problem is such a vote in parliament would more than definitely split the Tory party and leave the Labour party completely fractured and close to a split too. Neither parties leadership want such a vote as they know the consequences could be disastrous for their parties, once again they are both putting party before country.

British politics would benefit if both the Tories and Labour split.

If you had five "major" parties rather than three (it's really two at the moment, in truth, as the Lib Dems are always trailing the other two considerably), majority government in the UK would become a thing of the past, and first past the post would be shown up as the disastrous system it is.

McGiver

lawred2 wrote: »

just called off? and then what?

More cakeism or perhaps more kick-the-can-down-the-road-ism? :cool:
But - tick tock is an issue

McGiver

hill16bhoy wrote: »

British politics would benefit if both the Tories and Labour split.

If you had five "major" parties rather than three (it's really two at the moment, in truth, as the Lib Dems are always trailing the other two considerably), majority government in the UK would become a thing of the past, and first past the post would be shown up as the disastrous system it is.

It would require a change of the voting system, towards PR. And I would argue soft/europhilic/liberal-Tories (and perhaps some of the centrist Labourists) would likely join Lib Dems in that scenario. The centrists (assuming Lib Dems here) would be the strongest force under PR in the UK.

ArmaniJeanss

hill16bhoy wrote: »

British politics would benefit if both the Tories and Labour split.

If you had five "major" parties rather than three (it's really two at the moment, in truth, as the Lib Dems are always trailing the other two considerably), majority government in the UK would become a thing of the past, and first past the post would be shown up as the disastrous system it is.

Cart and horse, as long as you have FPTP you will have 2 max 3 parties.

Speech to HoC at 3.30pm by PMTM - probably just more 'nothing has changed, let me be clear' stuff rather than a resignation. The latter is usually on the steps outside 10DS.

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's quite possible that Ireland will come under severe pressure to change the backstop. Apart from the implicit and explicit nasty threats to our economy emanating from Tory politicians as they try to ditch the backstop, it also is in the EU's economic interest to ensure that there isn't a hard Brexit. If the only impediment to the deal going through is the backstop, then I expect much communication between Dublin, London and Brussels as to how this might be fudged.

Doesn't look like the EU agree
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1072100394250199041

seamus

lawred2 wrote: »

just called off? and then what?

Does anyone know the answer at this stage?

If the reason it's being cancelled is because it's clear that May is going to lose the vote badly, then we could see the opposition call a no-confidence vote anyway.

Is Leo talking to the EU about making concessions on the backstop? I don't know.

I've always said that this is a seminal issue for the EU. What happens to Ireland in Brexit is important for the entire EU, because it illustrates what the EU will do when the sh1t hits the fan. Will it fight for the union? Or will small states be sacrificed in the economic interests of the big ones?
If it's the latter, then Brexit is just the beginning and insular, anti-EU sentiment will build across Europe.

Markets definitely aren't liking it. They're not expecting this to go well for the UK. Which suggests that they're expecting that no WA means no deal.

No deal is about the only way May can hold onto power at this stage. Her party want a renegotiation which is not possible. The DUP won't accept anything except a hard border.

She can't stay in the PM seat unless they just go for no deal.

10000maniacs

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

cml387

This is bad for May.
She can hardly turn around and go back to EU for concessions, after banging on for weeks about how the WA is the best there is.
Then pulling the vote after sending her ministers out to expressly deny it.

Unless the EU has said something over the weekend that she can point to.

Hurrache

10000maniacs wrote: »

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

Many don't seem to realise that the backstop only applies in perpetuity if they don't sort out a future agreement.

joeysoap

10000maniacs wrote: »

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

Leo softens on the back stop = SF gain in popularity next election. He’d want to dress it up in a Santa outfit to have any chance of it not being exposed as a cave in.

Water John

If TM delays vote until the New Year, what she wants to push is my Deal or Crash out.
Time for Parliament to take control from her hands, in that case.

10000maniacs

cml387 wrote: »

This is bad for May.
She can hardly turn around and go back to EU for concessions, after banging on for weeks about how the WA is the best there is.
Then pulling the vote after sending her ministers out to expressly deny it.

Unless the EU has said something over the weekend that she can point to.

Sky News did a calculation that May would have lost by over 200 votes on Tuesday so it is not surprising that it's called off.
However, Europe still won't budge on the backstop regardless of how much the UK sulks and postures as it would split the EU down the middle. A lot of countries are on Irelands side.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Doesn't look like the EU agree
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1072100394250199041

Looks pretty firm. Pity, a fudge that suits all would be in everyone's interest right now.