Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Peregrinus · 29-11-2018 02:06AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Of course in "real terms" the people of the UK will be poorer because of inflation . . .

Depends on whether the Bank of England graph is modelling nominal GDP, or GDP in real terms, which I haven't checked.

The impact on GDP of a property price crash is factored into the Bank's model, and reflected in the graph. It's not an additional cost.

Worth pointing out, though, that the costs of Brexit (or any other adverse economic impact) are not likely to be evenly spread. The costs of a fall in employment, for example, are disproportionately born by those who actually lose their jobs, although the entire community suffers to some extent through lower wage rises, difficulty for young adults in entering the job market, etc. The costs of a property price crash are borne by, duh, property owners, then lenders. Renters can actually do quite well out of it. Etc, etc.

Once you have enough of the basics to feed, clothe and shelter yourself and your dependents, a large part of the impact of poverty is not material deprivation in itself, but the feeling of alienation and exclusion that comes from not sharing what your friends and neighbours have, and take for granted. If you can't take your kids on holiday while everybody else can, that's very hard, whereas if we're all miserable together we are, it turns out, less miserable.

A signficant part of the UK's underperformance will be its underperformance relative to other European economies. But your typical Brit is not comparing himself with a Belgian or a Dane or a Spaniard; he's comparing himself with the typical Brit that lives next door. If the UK manages its tax and social protection policies so as to spread the economic impact of Brexit fairly across society, people won't feel it so much and it's possible that the Brexiter line that this is worth it so as to assert independence, sovereignty, yadda, yadda, yadda may find some traction. However the politicians who spin this line tend to overlap to a high degree with the politicians who advocate policies that will do the precise opposite of increasing solidarity and ensuring social protection.

Tell me how · 29-11-2018 04:18AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Once you have enough of the basics to feed, clothe and shelter yourself and your dependents, a large part of the impact of poverty is not material deprivation in itself, but the feeling of alienation and exclusion that comes from not sharing what your friends and neighbours have, and take for granted. If you can't take your kids on holiday while everybody else can, that's very hard, whereas if we're all miserable together we are, it turns out, less miserable.

Pity they didn't put that on the side of the bus.

LuckyLloyd · 29-11-2018 05:40AM

prinzeugen wrote: »

Yes. Britex has been disaster even although it has not happened yet.

I support all socialist ideals. I will grow a beard and pretend to be educated.

All articles in the Guardian are fact.

I am only allowed to post anti British and anti britex posts.

Do I get to join the politics forum club?

Will a certain mod reply to my PM?

Boring dreary aul nonsense. You’ve not been persecuted on this thread sir, your posts are just frequently wrong and easily pulled apart.

Enzokk · 29-11-2018 06:09AM

prinzeugen wrote: »

Yes. Britex has been disaster even although it has not happened yet.

I support all socialist ideals. I will grow a beard and pretend to be educated.

All articles in the Guardian are fact.

I am only allowed to post anti British and anti britex posts.

Do I get to join the politics forum club?

Will a certain mod reply to my PM?

I don't know how you can complain about the tone of discussion of the Brexit topic when you have a post like this. How does this forward the discussion at all? You posted that all reasonable discussion was stopped years ago and I asked you what topics you would like to discuss on Brexit that is reasonable, but no reply.

You claimed that we will be forced into Schengen and I also asked you to provide examples where Ireland were undermined during this whole fiasco so far. You could also help the discussion on here by listing examples of countries being asked/forced by the EU as you posted so we can discuss if this will be good or bad for Ireland.

But just ignoring posts and posting about what is on the back of the 50 euro note is also not contributing to this thread that you are complaining about. Or maybe it is like the Brexiteers, who seem to have shifted from saying that Brexit will be a success to Brexit is a disaster because of the people negotiating it.

Enzokk · 29-11-2018 06:31AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Strictly speaking, though, she's correct. The forecasts are not saying that, with Brexit, the UK will be poorer in (say) 2023 than it is in 2018. They are saying that it will be poorer in 2023 than it would have been, but for Brexit; but still richer than it is now in 2018.

The chart in this post makes the point:

In all scenarios, even the worst, UK GDP is higher in 2021 than it was in 2016, when the referendum vote was held. It's lower than it needs to be; the UK will be noticeably underperforming comparable and neighbouring economies; there will, in the more extreme scenarios, have been massive disruption and dislocation; in general it will be a dismal experience. But, on these predictions, the UK will not actually have be poorer than it was in 2016.

The interesting thing is that Brexiteers are correct the BOE forecasts are just that and will most likely not be accurate. There will be events that will happen that they will not know what impact it will have on the economy. But what they forget is that it cuts both way so while their forecasts could well be low in terms of the impact of Brexit, it could also be higher than what could happen.

Let's say Trump starts feeling the heat from the investigations in the US and starts pressing the nuclear buttons to try and steer the gaze of the world off himself and his family, how would that impact the world? Depends who decided to remove from the world and no-one will know and there are no forecasts that can model for this.

The way the Brexit dream has been shown to be a mirage it would not surprise me that the likes of Suella Braverman will be proven correct that the forecasts will not be accurate. Unfortunately for most people it will be worse than predicted if they go for what she and the likes of JRM advocates.

Peregrinus · 29-11-2018 06:58AM

Enzokk wrote: »

The interesting thing is that Brexiteers are correct the BOE forecasts are just that and will most likely not be accurate. There will be events that will happen that they will not know what impact it will have on the economy . . .

Two thoughts:

The first thing is that these forecasts - all forecasts, really - just model one variable. What they are essentially saying is that, if the UK brexits on these terms, we predict that GDP in (say) 2023 will be 5% lower than if would have been if the UK had not brexited, but history had otherwise unfolded in the same way.

What is being projected here is the relative gap between the scenario if the UK brexits, and the scenario in which it doesn't. The absolute figures for GDP in both these scenarios are almost certainly going to be wrong because, as you point out, events unrelated to Brexit will occur between now and then to affect GDP. But those events will happen whether or not the UK brexits. If, as history unfolds, beneficial events happen which exactly offset the GDP impact of brexit, that wouldn't mean that the UK hadn't been harmed by brexit. Arguing that would be like arguing that the Great Depression caused no harm because its effects were offset by the economic boom associated with rearmament in the 1930s.

The second point is that, yes, all projections are somewhat unreliable, and after the event we can often measure how unreliable they were. For what it's worth, the projections we are discussing here come from economists whose projections made two-and-a-half years ago of the effect of the Brexit referendum have proven so far to be the most accurate - they came closest to correctly predicting current economic performance. While the 2016 projections which have proven so far to be the least accurate, the ones which have turned out to be most wildly off, are those of Prof. Patrick Minford, pretty much the only economist that Brexiters ever cite.

Enzokk · 29-11-2018 07:03AM

James O'Brien had very interesting calls yesterday where he was discussing the situation with Brexiteers. He breaks down their arguments because there are no arguments that will leave the UK better off outside the EU.

First up we have a caller who was wrong from the his first statement, and it didn't get any better.

Then we have a Leave voter who voted to Leave because he was concerned about regulations on the financial sector. He believes it stifles innovation and his call didn't go any better either.

Then we have a third call where a caller was shown to have voted to have less foreigners in the country. The headline says it all really, his argument in the end was about ending holidays.

In all these cases all three people were confronted with the facts of the situation and they refused to either listen or even think about the position they find themselves in. Now if there were a second referendum I would not want James O'Brien fighting my side for me as he can be abrasive but that doesn't mean he is not stating the facts. The people will refuse to believe it and will continue double down that they are correct and the other side is wrong.

Capt'n Midnight · 29-11-2018 08:24AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

In all scenarios, even the worst, UK GDP is higher in 2021 than it was in 2016, when the referendum vote was held. It's lower than it needs to be; the UK will be noticeably underperforming comparable and neighbouring economies; there will, in the more extreme scenarios, have been massive disruption and dislocation; in general it will be a dismal experience. But, on these predictions, the UK will not actually have be poorer than it was in 2016.

It's not 2016, it's nearly 2019. And a no deal Brexit means it could be 2024 to get back to the current levels.

And that graph doesn't take inflation into account. The £20Bn promised to the NHS will get eaten by that.
You'll have more £ in your pocket , but each one will buy less.

And that's before you factor in any fall in sterling.

Austerity is supposed to be over, instead it will have to continue.

Peregrinus · 29-11-2018 08:48AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's not 2016, it's nearly 2019. And a no deal Brexit means it could be 2024 to get back to the current levels.

And that graph doesn't take inflation into account. The £20Bn promised to the NHS will get eaten by that.
You'll have more £ in your pocket , but each one will buy less.

And that's before you factor in any fall in sterling.

Austerity is supposed to be over, instead it will have to continue.

Yes, of course. All forms of Brexit are bad, economically speaking, and some are very bad.

Nevertheless the badness mostly takes the form of lower, slower or retarded growth - which, don't get me wrong, is bad. But even lower, slower retarded growth is still growth. In the short term there may be actual contraction, but the real damage that Brexit will do is long-term damage due to permanent disadvantage to the UK economy. And the long term damage takes the form of depressed growth which, in the end, is going to cost the UK far more than a short period of economic contraction.

The point here is that much of the dire warnings about the more disastrous Brexit scenarios focus on the short term =- the disruption, the chaos, the rationing. But that does risk a response along the lines of "yes, it will be rough, but change is always painful and we we can deal with that in order to carry through a worthwhile change". But the real point is that the change isn't worthwhile. After the chaos and the disruption has passed and the UK has negotiate the deals it hopes to negotiate and adapted itself to its new circumstances, it still suffers from a lasting disadvantage which will produce year after year after year of sub-par performance. And that's going to add up to a much bigger negative impact than the short period of chaos and disruption.

Iderown · 29-11-2018 08:57AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes, of course. All forms of Brexit are bad, economically speaking, and some are very bad.

... it still suffers from a lasting disadvantage which will produce year after year after year of sub-par performance. And that's going to add up to a much bigger negative impact than the short period of chaos and disruption.

Are you thinking of something like a lowering of educational standards and opportunities? Could affect industries for many years.

First Up · 29-11-2018 08:59AM

Looking at UK growth rates in isolation is missing the point.

If a business is increasing sales by 5% but its competitors are increasing by 10%, then the business is losing market share and heading for trouble.

If the UK's growth rate is lower than the EU or world average, then it is falling behind and getting relatively poorer.

Peregrinus · 29-11-2018 09:04AM

Iderown wrote: »

Are you thinking of something like a lowering of educational standards and opportunities? Could affect industries for many years.

No, I'm thinking primarily of increased tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.

RobMc59 · 29-11-2018 09:27AM

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know how you can complain about the tone of discussion of the Brexit topic when you have a post like this. How does this forward the discussion at all? You posted that all reasonable discussion was stopped years ago and I asked you what topics you would like to discuss on Brexit that is reasonable, but no reply.

You claimed that we will be forced into Schengen and I also asked you to provide examples where Ireland were undermined during this whole fiasco so far. You could also help the discussion on here by listing examples of countries being asked/forced by the EU as you posted so we can discuss if this will be good or bad for Ireland.

But just ignoring posts and posting about what is on the back of the 50 euro note is also not contributing to this thread that you are complaining about. Or maybe it is like the Brexiteers, who seem to have shifted from saying that Brexit will be a success to Brexit is a disaster because of the people negotiating it.

If you have a thread about Brexit it's likely there will be British posters who may have different views.Hanging on to the past helps no one,whether it's dreaming of past perceived glorious history or past gripes people may have with various nations.
If people have different opinions and views that's good isn't it?-Unless sticking it to "the brits"is all that matters.

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-11-2018 09:33AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

If people have different opinions and views that's good isn't it?-Unless sticking it to "the brits"is all that matters.

It is only good if those views can at least be backed up with a semblence of fact or rationality. It surely is not good if someone believes the Earth is flat and offers no reasoning behind their view and ignores all the evidence put forward by others to counter that belief

Peregrinus · 29-11-2018 09:42AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you have a thread about Brexit it's likely there will be British posters who may have different views.Hanging on to the past helps no one,whether it's dreaming of past perceived glorious history or past gripes people may have with various nations.
If people have different opinions and views that's good isn't it?-Unless sticking it to "the brits"is all that matters.

It's good that people have different views, but there's not much point in posting your views to a discussion board unless you're going to, well, discusss them.

Prinzeugen has a habit of raising points that might well be worthy of discussion but then, when people try to discuss them, running way while yelling insults over his shoulder in the hope of distracting attention from the fact that he is running away - like accusing people of being selective when they address issues that he, in fact, selected. This isn't helpful.

I get that, if you're an advocate for Brexit, you're in a small minority on this board and that's not always a comfortable place to be. But if you feel you're the sole defender of Brexit that does make it all the more important not to behave in a way that gives the strong impression that you haven't got any arguments that you're willing to stand over. That's probably not going to do a lot for the cause.

Captain Obvious · 29-11-2018 10:23AM

Enzokk wrote: »

James O'Brien had very interesting calls yesterday where he was discussing the situation with Brexiteers. He breaks down their arguments because there are no arguments that will leave the UK better off outside the EU.

First up we have a caller who was wrong from the his first statement, and it didn't get any better.

Then we have a Leave voter who voted to Leave because he was concerned about regulations on the financial sector. He believes it stifles innovation and his call didn't go any better either.

Then we have a third call where a caller was shown to have voted to have less foreigners in the country. The headline says it all really, his argument in the end was about ending holidays.

In all these cases all three people were confronted with the facts of the situation and they refused to either listen or even think about the position they find themselves in. Now if there were a second referendum I would not want James O'Brien fighting my side for me as he can be abrasive but that doesn't mean he is not stating the facts. The people will refuse to believe it and will continue double down that they are correct and the other side is wrong.

I've been listening to his show when I can. I'm not a great fan of his manner of presenting but the people who ring in are just hard to believe. The often accept his arguments but then say they will still be Brexiters. And they don't really have a reason.

Zubeneschamali · 29-11-2018 10:40AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

If the UK manages its tax and social protection policies so as to spread the economic impact of Brexit fairly across society, people won't feel it so much

If they make it to 2023, they will be able to soldier on. Worse off then they should be, but on an upward trajectory.

The risk in that disorderly graph is the catastrophic drop in 2019 - that's where the mass unemployment, food shortages, medicine rationing and so forth would be happening. I do think you can add riots, baton charges, worldwide press coverage of bloody casualties on Westminster bridge after mounted police charge crowds trying to get at parliament, 3rd world scenes...

If that starts, who knows where the graph goes.

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-11-2018 10:43AM

Scottish daily newspaper was refused access by the Tories to the Prime Minister press conference yesterday in Scotland

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1067891884125614080

and the local MP was not informed of the visit

https://twitter.com/GavNewlandsSNP/status/1067900142634848257

RobMc59 · 29-11-2018 10:45AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's good that people have different views, but there's not much point in posting your views to a discussion board unless you're going to, well, discusss them.

Prinzeugen has a habit of raising points that might well be worthy of discussion but then, when people try to discuss them, running way while yelling insults over his shoulder in the hope of distracting attention from the fact that he is running away - like accusing people of being selective when they address issues that he, in fact, selected. This isn't helpful.

I get that, if you're an advocate for Brexit, you're in a small minority on this board and that's not always a comfortable place to be. But if you feel you're the sole defender of Brexit that does make it all the more important not to behave in a way that gives the strong impression that you haven't got any arguments that you're willing to stand over. That's probably not going to do a lot for the cause.

Maybe British posters are in the minority on a thread about Brexit.But not all British people are Brexiteers(I'm certainly not)and I can see why Irish posters would feel aggrieved by the way the UK has lurched from one bad decision to another regarding brexit which will affect Ireland which is very closely connected to the UK (that works both ways,Britain relies on Ireland too)old gripes and grudges shouldn't be part of it.I realise there will be posts saying that's not the case but in reality it is.

jaykay74 · 29-11-2018 10:50AM

Sorry if its been posted already but I dont see it in the last page or 2.

It seems like polling shows a lot of confusion over what the public want now and depending on how a question is asked you can takeaway the outcome you wish from it. Surely it can only be no deal since thats the default position when no consensus can be agreed.

stolen from one of the replies to explain the pie charts quickly... "The point of it being shown this way is it shows most voters prefer Remain to the May deal, that they prefer the May Deal to no deal, and that they prefer no deal to remain."

https://twitter.com/m2matthijs/status/1067824093922131968

Zubeneschamali · 29-11-2018 10:54AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

If the UK manages its tax and social protection policies so as to spread the economic impact of Brexit fairly across society, people won't feel it so much

The other point I meant to make in response is that unless something changes, the Tories will be in power until 2022, right through the catastrophe on the graph.

Their entire philosophy is Make Britain Dickensian Again, so you can forget about a fair spread of the impact: it is going to land bang on top of those least able to weather it.

29-11-2018 11:02AM

jaykay74 wrote: »

Sorry if its been posted already but I dont see it in the last page or 2.

It seems like polling shows a lot of confusion over what the public want now and depending on how a question is asked you can takeaway the outcome you wish from it. Surely it can only be no deal since thats the default position when no consensus can be agreed.

stolen from one of the replies to explain the pie charts quickly... "The point of it being shown this way is it shows most voters prefer Remain to the May deal, that they prefer the May Deal to no deal, and that they prefer no deal to remain."

https://twitter.com/m2matthijs/status/1067824093922131968

https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/1067938513813995522

It was an error, and even if it weren't, the person who decided to present the data like that shouldn't be trusted with presenting data.

CelticRambler · 29-11-2018 11:32AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Maybe British posters are in the minority on a thread about Brexit.But not all British people are Brexiteers ... old gripes and grudges shouldn't be part of it.I realise there will be posts saying that's not the case but in reality it is.

You need to remember that boards.ie is, at its heart, a forum for Irish people, so not a natural port of call for British contributors from either camp, unless they happen to be resident in - or have contact with - Ireland. I'm a member of a French anglophone forum, and the Brexit threads there are overwhelmingly dominated by British contributors, almost all anti-Brexit but like here, the discussion tends to be very fact-based on the Remainer side and very "emotional" on the Brexiteer side.

Those "French" Brits have a personal stake in the future EU-UK relationship, as it's likely to impact their lives far more than anyone contributing to this board, or indeed those Brits-in-Britain who want to sail off into the Great Brexit-blue Yonder. Questions about residency entitlements, ease of travel, having friends over to work in the family business, health care, etc, etc.

The discussion here, as you acknowledge, is largely concentrated on the economic impact for Ireland of Britain's decision, and even though the real people behind the pseudonyms will be affected to some extent, the discussion is largely academic - almost a spectator sport. Most posts that would fall into the category of "old gripes and grudges" are more tongue-in-cheek than genuine opinion, but there is a big difference in perspective on the GB-Ireland relationship between our two populations.

To refer back to the earlier "fight them on the beaches" comment: in England, that is symbolic of Britain's fight against the German Oppressor, often coupled with the declaration "if it weren't for those brave boys, we'd all be speaking German now". But at the time young Willie McBride was fighting and dying in the Green Fields of France, our oppressor was Britain, and we ended up speaking English instead of Irish, hence our low nausea threshold.

Fast forward to the 21st Century, and that language question is still a bone of contention in one part of the island, so actually not so old a gripe after all. It's this level of Britain's entanglement with Irish history that was ignored by the Brexiteers (and pretty much all of the Remainers and the British media) before the referendum, yet led to the backstop that so hobbled negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement.

I think it was before your arrival, but back in the third or fourth iteration of this discussion, we had one Brexit-supporting contributor (Solo ... greatly missed) who did try to engage constructively in the debate, and was respected for his participation. Since then, though, the quality of Leave advocates is greatly diminished.

Skelet0n · 29-11-2018 11:49AM

Anyone listening to James O'Brien? There was just a proper tinfoil hat UKIP New World Order Brexiter on.

Will post a link once it's put on youtube.

Leroy42 · 29-11-2018 12:11PM

It turns out that Brexit has had quite the impact on EU immigration into the UK.

https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1068079696598974464

But it has also seen an increase (highest since 2004) in the non-EU nationals immigration (248k non EU vs 74k EU).

Now a caveat, these are estimates since they don't actually has actual numbers, but these are the very same system that the Brexiteers used to decry the number of foreigners coming to the UK so it is a consistent (if flawed) process.

So the part of immigration that the UK have complete and total control over they are currently seeing 3.35 times more immigration from and doing nothing at all about it.

judeboy101 · 29-11-2018 12:30PM

Corby v may, BBC 8pm Sunday before the vote. She has insisted it be a panel, whatever that means.

Water John · 29-11-2018 12:33PM

Would that mean no studio audience? A Panel seems to indicate a range of views, all the way from Remain to Crash out Brexiteer.

Enzokk · 29-11-2018 12:36PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

It turns out that Brexit has had quite the impact on EU immigration into the UK.

https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1068079696598974464

But it has also seen an increase (highest since 2004) in the non-EU nationals immigration (248k non EU vs 74k EU).

Now a caveat, these are estimates since they don't actually has actual numbers, but these are the very same system that the Brexiteers used to decry the number of foreigners coming to the UK so it is a consistent (if flawed) process.

So the part of immigration that the UK have complete and total control over they are currently seeing 3.35 times more immigration from and doing nothing at all about it.

It's almost like a country that relies on immigration will swap one kind for another when the need arises. Another shocking conclusion that was in no way obvious to anyone beforehand.

LeinsterDub · 29-11-2018 12:37PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

Corby v may, BBC 8pm Sunday before the vote. She has insisted it be a panel, whatever that means.

Labour haven't confirmed yet . Unless you're info is hot off the presses?

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-11-2018 12:38PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

Corby v may, BBC 8pm Sunday before the vote. She has insisted it be a panel, whatever that means.

I have no idea what this is trying to achieve

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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