After Hours Exit Poll

Donald Trump · 28-10-2018 10:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes he won, no doubt about that, but ask yourself why did the other four do so badly?
Did they switch to prevent a Casey win, or did they really like MDH?

If they switched to avoid a Casey win, why?

That's mad.

Are you trying to imply that MDH only won because people switched their votes from the other 4 candidates to him in order to make sure Casey wasn't elected?

I've heard it all now

28-10-2018 10:53PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

That's mad.

Are you trying to imply that MDH only won because people switched their votes from the other 4 candidates to him in order to make sure Casey wasn't elected?

I've heard it all now

Here was a distinct polarisation of the vote in many constituencies, so it isn't mad (Ted).

Austria! · 28-10-2018 11:06PM

23% isn't to be dismissed so lightly.

Here's an opinion poll from this year

FG: 36 FF: 23 SF: 16 Lab: 5 Grn: 3 SPBP: 1 SD: ~1 Ind/Oth: ~15

With PR 23% support is significant even if you ignore any other context which makes the 23% more impressive, and likely to grow.

Context:
1. MDH was the incumbent and had a big advantage in a low key election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incumbent#Incumbency_advantage

2. Peter Casey was not a very presidential or impressive, poor in debates and failed to alert islanders to a shark. He was on 2% until last week. His support was in spite of his shortcomings as a candidate.

3. The rise was sudden and eye-catching. People are going to discuss the issue, and that 23% could expand.

4. Despite the media reaction, his comments were not that radical. Leo himself said he was for people who get up in the morning.

Donald Trump · 28-10-2018 11:12PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Here was a distinct polarisation of the vote in many constituencies, so it isn't mad (Ted).

Plenty of anecdotal evidence on here of people switching from Mickey-D to non-pc PC in the last week of election.

I would say that as many, if not more, votes originally intended for other candidates went to PC as a protest vote. Given that a lot of voters for independent candidates do it as a form of "sticking it to the establishment" anyway.

But switching to MDH to prevent PC getting in............they'd have to not understand how single transferable voting works!

Silentcorner · 28-10-2018 11:12PM

dav3 wrote: »

Some people need to look at the map below. It is a map of Ireland, it is a map of every constituency in Ireland.

Michael D Higgins won every single constituency.

Michael D Higgins won the urban and rural vote, he won the male vote, the female vote, the young vote, the elderly vote. He won the working class vote and the middle class vote.

He has ended up with the largest vote ever in the history of the state.

In 2011 Michael D Higgins won 36 out of 43 constituencies.
Sean Gallagher won 6 constituencies.
Martin McGuinness won 1.

In 2018 Michael D Higgins won 40 out of 40 constituencies.

In 2011 Michael D Higgins received 701,101 1st preference votes giving him 39.6% of the vote.
Second place Sean Gallagher, running as a bloke off tv putting it up to the establishment and 'telling it like it is', received 504,964 1st preference votes giving him 28.5% of the vote.

In 2018 Michael D Higgins increased his vote to 822,566 1st preference votes giving him 55.8% of the vote.
Second place Peter Casey received 342,727 1st preference votes giving him 23.3% of the vote.

There is no rural/urban divide. That is clear. A small whinging minority will not shape Irish politics.

The Casey supporters need to remember that they are a small minority. Like the Sean Gallagher vote, they will not be pandered to.

There is no growing anti-traveller, anti-Irish, anti-working class vote. The majority of Peter Casey voters will die over the next 10-20 years. There is no rise of right-wing thinking or right wing politics in Ireland. It has been the exact opposite. The right is slowly dying out in Ireland and there is nothing coming through. The people of Ireland have been moving away from the right in the huge numbers over the past number of years. Not just 5 or 10 years, but for almost half a century.

Before the right realise what is happening to them, they’ll be already dead. The silent majority spoke on Friday and returned Michael D Higgins in greater numbers than the last election. To use a phrase popular in politics these days, Michael D won, get over it.

Peter Casey finished 2nd in every one of those constituencies, he did this on a spend of €70,000, without a national organisation, for the last 9 days of this race he was called racist/bigot/#insert any number of emotive insults# by EVERYONE in Irish media and Irish politics including the Taoiseach!!

Michael D spent €340,000 with LAB/FF/Fg supporting him, along with the entire National Media infrastructure from RTE, TV3, Irish Times, Irish Indo, Newstalk, Today FM....we did not see a single poll in those days when Caseys support was surging from 2% to 23%.

Higgins did not have to answer any difficult questions because the difficult questions were not asked...the dogs on the street know Michael D Higgins is not what he presents himself to be!

The first time Higgins got elected, he was elected largely because of the actions of RTE and Sinn Fein.

This time he got assisted by the media again, if you cannot see what is staring you in the face you shouldn't be consuming media....you're not able to know when you are being fooled! This is not the first time Irish media have pulled stunts like this and it won't be the last.

Donald Trump · 29-10-2018 12:07AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Peter Casey finished 2nd in every one of those constituencies, he did this on a spend of €70,000, without a national organisation, for the last 9 days of this race he was called racist/bigot/#insert any number of emotive insults# by EVERYONE in Irish media and Irish politics including the Taoiseach!!

Michael D spent €340,000 with LAB/FF/Fg supporting him, along with the entire National Media infrastructure from RTE, TV3, Irish Times, Irish Indo, Newstalk, Today FM....we did not see a single poll in those days when Caseys support was surging from 2% to 23%.

Higgins did not have to answer any difficult questions because the difficult questions were not asked...the dogs on the street know Michael D Higgins is not what he presents himself to be!

The first time Higgins got elected, he was elected largely because of the actions of RTE and Sinn Fein.

This time he got assisted by the media again, if you cannot see what is staring you in the face you shouldn't be consuming media....you're not able to know when you are being fooled! This is not the first time Irish media have pulled stunts like this and it won't be the last.

Eh, it was the media which gave Casey's comments so much airtime which pushed him in front of other 4 candidates.

To suggest anything otherwise is ludicrous

Silentcorner · 29-10-2018 12:19AM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Eh, it was the media which gave Casey's comments so much airtime which pushed him in front of other 4 candidates.

To suggest anything otherwise is ludicrous

It was all negative, viciously negative I would say.

They didn't once even mention the surge in support or even suggest perhaps merit in what was said.

Have you any idea how difficult it is to challenge a negative media narrative?

Liamalone · 29-10-2018 12:20AM

Who won?

Silentcorner · 29-10-2018 12:21AM

Liamalone wrote: »

Who won?

That's a good question!

29-10-2018 12:28AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

It was all negative, viciously negative I would say.

They didn't once even mention the surge in support or even suggest perhaps merit in what was said.

Have you any idea how difficult it is to challenge a negative media narrative?

It's very easy when you see that it clearly goes against what you see with your own eyes!

blinding · 29-10-2018 08:04AM

Liamalone wrote: »

Who won?

Political correctness got a good going over .

Lets stop denying Truths .

We have done enough of that in the past ,

Is Matt Cooper now a Bishop of Political Correctness . He and his fellow travellers will not dictate what People think / believe / talk about .

We never made him Bishop of Truth . We are not that Daft !

enricoh · 29-10-2018 09:22AM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Eh, it was the media which gave Casey's comments so much airtime which pushed him in front of other 4 candidates.

To suggest anything otherwise is ludicrous

Eh, yeah his comments got plenty of airtime in an otherwise dull as ditchwater election.
All the airtime was negative to blow him out of water and dissuade anyone else to bring it up again.
He went from 1 to 23% though, so its fairly safe to say it backfired!

AndrewJRenko · 29-10-2018 09:51AM

blinding wrote: »

Political correctness got a good going over .

Lets stop denying Truths .

We have done enough of that in the past ,

Is Matt Cooper now a Bishop of Political Correctness . He and his fellow travellers will not dictate what People think / believe / talk about .

We never made him Bishop of Truth . We are not that Daft !

Isn't all this just a grossly exaggerated position. No-one has dictated what people think/believe/talk about.

You're really talking about being challenged on BS opinions, right?

Silentcorner · 29-10-2018 10:00AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It's very easy when you see that it clearly goes against what you see with your own eyes!

I'm from Limerick, I have witnessed how damaging a negative media narrative can be and how impossible it is to challenge.

Next you'll be telling me Limerick should be grateful for basking in the media attention!

Squatter · 29-10-2018 10:00AM

Austria! wrote: »

4. Despite the media reaction, his comments were not that radical. Leo himself said he was for people who get up in the morning.

Yep that's the irony of the whole thing. Simply by making a couple of pretty basic, no-brainer observations, the somewhat incoherent Casey managed to get the entire media Snowflake cohort get their collective thongs and knickers in a massive twist. With Myers and Hook driven off the stage, he is the new Irish contrarian. Best of all, he appears to have enough personal wealth not to be beholden to anyone or togive a tuppenny damn about what anyone thinks of him!

He'll be on RTE Radio 1 in the next few minutes an I'm looking forward to hear his latest plans and proposals. My Nespresso is loaded and ready to go as strong coffee is a must!

AndrewJRenko · 29-10-2018 10:03AM

Squatter wrote: »

He'll be on RTE Radio 1 in the next few minutes an I'm looking forward to hear his latest plans and proposals.

Hope they work out better for him than his announcement on Saturday about him becoming spokeperson for the STardust families.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/peter-casey-accused-exploiting-stardust-15341160

Sycamore Tree · 29-10-2018 10:05AM

I haven't posted since the election - too busy spending my winnings

My thoughts on the result;

SF & LNR: Disastrous election. They made all the wrong decisions and it backfired spectacularly. LNR was the only seasoned politician apart from MDH and did well in the debates but the decisions they made for the campaign were shockingly poor when you consider SF's experience. They started way too late, they tried to play down her SF allegiance for some odd reason (posters & bus), they didn't give her a way to answer the inevitable IRA terrorism and Cahill and Average Industrial Wage questions. The result showed how capped and yet fickle the SF vote is.

Casey: The man is a bit of a fool when it comes to politics and he really cant put coherent thoughts together on the fly. The fact that he doesn't think the traveller comment had an effect on his meteoric rise just shows he is dishonest. However I am really glad he said and did what he did because it has exposed the anger amongst the middle class over welfare spongers. Casey should walk away now before he makes a bigger fool of himself. The hope for many now is that a secular right(ish) wing party emerges to represent the squeezed/angry middle. We will wait and see.

Gallagher and Duffy: These guys should be embarrassed. I don't know how they even got one vote to be honest. What earthly reason was there to vote for these two? I am still shocked that Gallagher did so well in 2011. So little substance. Arrogant Spoofers.

Freeman: Nice lady but as Yates said a one trick pony. I did hope she would get her expenses back but it was a long shot.

MDH: Only proper statesmen of the lot and the only one who understands the role. His reputation is tarnished somewhat not but I have no doubt he will do us proud. Hopefully he lasts the 7 years healthy.

Squatter · 29-10-2018 10:08AM

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Hope they work out better for him than his announcement on Saturday about him becoming spokeperson for the STardust families.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/peter-casey-accused-exploiting-stardust-15341160

...... Best of all, he appears to have enough personal wealth not to be beholden to anyone or to give a tuppenny damn about what anyone thinks of him!

That includes you, Andy boy!

blinding · 29-10-2018 10:14AM

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Isn't all this just a grossly exaggerated position. No-one has dictated what people think/believe/talk about.

You're really talking about being challenged on BS opinions, right?

The Politically Correct Clergy have been deciding what we get to talk about .

Control , Contro , Control .

Just like that other Clergy before them .

AndrewJRenko · 29-10-2018 10:17AM

Squatter wrote: »

That includes you, Andy boy!

Are you his spokesman? If so, you might want to advise him to keep his mouth shut a bit. Two rejected advances in two days (Stardust families and FF). He was really so utterly lacking in self-awareness to speak about himself as a future Taoiseach.

Send him on an Emotional Intelligence course for a start.

Donald Trump · 29-10-2018 10:18AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

It was all negative, viciously negative I would say.

They didn't once even mention the surge in support or even suggest perhaps merit in what was said.

Have you any idea how difficult it is to challenge a negative media narrative?

Evil media are giving PC another platform now. Granted it's just on the main national radio station so only maybe 100 people will hear him despite the censoring. Being interviewed by Miriam O'Callaghan

Oppressing poor Peter and his message. Preventing him from getting out. Well he was interviewed for 20 mins or so on Sat. but I didn't hear him on yesterday. The pricks!

Donald Trump · 29-10-2018 10:20AM

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

I haven't posted since the election - too busy spending my winnings
MDH: Only proper statesmen of the lot and the only one who understands the role. His reputation is tarnished somewhat not but I have no doubt he will do us proud. Hopefully he lasts the 7 years healthy.

He'll be grand. The oul' coke and hookers do wonders for longevity

AndrewJRenko · 29-10-2018 10:22AM

blinding wrote: »

The Politically Correct Clergy have been deciding what we get to talk about .

Control , Contro , Control .

Just like that other Clergy before them .

How did that work now? Did this Clergy control George Hook? Or John Waters? Or David Quinn? Or any other of the media martyrs who tell us ALL the time about how they're being silenced?

blinding · 29-10-2018 10:29AM

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

How did that work now? Did this Clergy control George Hook? Or John Waters? Or David Quinn? Or any other of the media martyrs who tell us ALL the time about how they're being silenced?

Mentioning People that have been chase-ed out by the Politically Correct Clergy is hardly good for your point of view .

omega man · 29-10-2018 10:32AM

Liamalone wrote: »

Who won?

Casey, clearly. Everyone and their mother knew Higgins was going to win the election and so he did. Everyone is talking about Casey in he aftermath though.

AndrewJRenko · 29-10-2018 10:48AM

blinding wrote: »

Mentioning People that have been chase-ed out by the Politically Correct Clergy is hardly good for your point of view .

Who's been chased where? Hook is still on the radio. Quinn is in the papers at least once a week. Waters was being interviewed for his pro-blasphemy proposals last week.

Is that what you call 'silenced'?

Gentleman Off The Pitch · 29-10-2018 10:52AM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Evil media are giving PC another platform now. Granted it's just on the main national radio station so only maybe 100 people will hear him despite the censoring. Being interviewed by Miriam O'Callaghan

Oppressing poor Peter and his message. Preventing him from getting out. Well he was interviewed for 20 mins or so on Sat. but I didn't hear him on yesterday. The pricks!

The outrage on Twitter as a result is telling, many simply cannot comprehend why the media are giving airtime to someone with an opinion different to their own

blinding · 29-10-2018 10:57AM

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Who's been chased where? Hook is still on the radio. Quinn is in the papers at least once a week. Waters was being interviewed for his pro-blasphemy proposals last week.

Is that what you call 'silenced'?

He was chased off his daytime show and moved to Saturday largely at the Behest of the Politically Correct Clergy's Inquisition .

Waters was / is largely sidelined bar some token pieces . Inquisition again .

blinding · 29-10-2018 11:01AM

Gentleman Off The Pitch wrote: »

The outrage on Twitter as a result is telling, many simply cannot comprehend why the media are giving airtime to someone with an opinion different to their own

They are so used to controlling the narrative they have really spit the dummy and unmasked themselves . Thanks Mr Peter Casey .

How dare people think and discuss stuff for themselves . The Politically Correct Inquisition Knows best and shall not be questioned . Their Bishops and Cardinals are above reproach and heading for infallibility .

It sounds very similar to what has happened in Ireland very recently .

DChancer · 29-10-2018 11:05AM

blinding wrote: »

He was chased off his daytime show and moved to Saturday largely at the Behest of the Politically Correct Clergy's Inquisition .

Waters was / is largely sidelined bar some token pieces . Inquisition again .

He lost his weekday show for abusing a rape victim and basically stating that she asked for it!
He's lucky to be allowed broadcast at all after that!

After Hours Exit Poll

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