After Hours Exit Poll

Mookie Blaylock

honeybear wrote: »

Any way to see individual ballot areas-would say my area might be near 50% Casey

Your local newspapers during the week would normally carry the results.

AndrewJRenko

blinding wrote: »

A lot of it was a Law and order Vote . Rural People have had enough of being intimidated , thieved from and burgled .

Hopefully the political establishment get the message . It would be very remiss of them to ignore the message .

Was it really though? I heard him on about housing, and camping on other people's land, and about not paying tax - did he play the crime card too?

And how much of rural crime is down to Travellers anyway?

Kivaro

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

And how much of rural crime is down to Travellers anyway?

From my experience, the majority of it.

AndrewJRenko

honeybear wrote: »

Any way to see individual ballot areas-would say my area might be near 50% Casey

Connect with your local political parties who would have been at the count and see if they will share the tallies with you. I heard that some count centres had precious few tallyers.

AndrewJRenko

Kivaro wrote: »

From my experience, the majority of it.

Basing public policy or political movements on anecdotal evidence isn't a very smart strategy.

blinding

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Was it really though? I heard him on about housing, and camping on other people's land, and about not paying tax - did he play the crime card too?

And how much of rural crime is down to Travellers anyway?

The Rural Voters are sick of Intimidation , Thievery , Burglary overwhelmingly carried out by Travellers .

Theses voters used this unexpected opportunity to send a message to the Political establishment . They would be wise to listen to it and act upon it .

AndrewJRenko

blinding wrote: »

The Rural Voters are sick of Intimidation , Thievery , Burglary overwhelmingly carried out by Travellers .

Theses voters used this unexpected opportunity to send a message to the Political establishment . They would be wise to listen to it and act upon it .

Could we just stick to some facts here for a minute?


1) Did Casey raise the issue of crime carried out by travellers?
2) What proportion of crime in rural areas is carried out by travellers?

blinding

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Could we just stick to some facts here for a minute?


1) Did Casey raise the issue of crime carried out by travellers?
2) What proportion of crime in rural areas is carried out by travellers?

Voters are more than capable of putting their own nuance on why they vote for someone .

I would say that at least 90% of Rural Crime is done by Travellers . It is also a vert nasty type of crime . Often terror-ising secluded old people in their own homes .

It is very low nasty crime .

Rubberchikken

It is always disappointing to see voters willing to waste a vote on a candidate who.is willing to spout whatever he thinks will get him press.

Nothing is going to change.
If more voters had put casey into the aras his willingness to milk the system/sit on his ass/and attempt to represent our country would soon curb his willingness to make populist comments.

blinding

blinding wrote: »

Voters are more than capable of putting their own nuance on why they vote for someone .

I would say that at least 90% of Rural Crime is done by Travellers . It is also a vert nasty type of crime . Often terror-ising secluded old people in their own homes .

It is very low nasty crime .

how's that nuance exressed in a tick then

blinding

Deleted User wrote: »

how's that nuance exressed in a tick then

Its politicians job to work out the nuance .

Didn’t Socks Leo proclaim that the message had been received .

Rural Law and Order will be big in the next General Election Campaign . The Parties will get that nuance .

jimwallace197

It would be good to see a political party with an apetite for actually doing something about the social welfare and crime epidemic in this country.

From Leo Varadkars government, we are seeing a continous shift towards liberalism in all its forms both socially and economically while sweeping the real issues under the carpet.

I myself would like to see more done about the mass exploitation of the social welfare system in ireland, the claim culture, the punitive rate of taxation on ordinary working citizens, the leniency in the courts for both petty and serious crime.

It seems this government are big on portraying the image of a party who are very progressive all the while screwing the ordinary citizen who hasnt really benefitted at all from recovery at all.

AndrewJRenko

blinding wrote: »

Voters are more than capable of putting their own nuance on why they vote for someone .

I would say that at least 90% of Rural Crime is done by Travellers . It is also a vert nasty type of crime . Often terror-ising secluded old people in their own homes .

It is very low nasty crime .

So I guess that's a No to question 1 - he didn't raise the issue of rural crime, but apparently, some/many people voted for him on this issue anyway, because he took a dig at an easy target.


As regards question 2, I was hoping for something a bit more than personal anecdotes.



Yes, these kinds of crimes are low and nasty. That doesn't mean that travellers have a monopoly of such crimes.

topper75

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

... because he took a dig at an easy target.

A target yes - the 'easy' adjective is rather strange. I can't conceive how you would call them an easy target.
They are some of the toughest, devil-may-care, brass-necked people you will meet in the entire island of Ireland.
And that is saying something.

robbiezero

topper75 wrote: »

A target yes - the 'easy' adjective is rather strange. I can't conceive how you would call them an easy target.
They are some of the toughest, devil-may-care, brass-necked people you will meet in the entire island of Ireland.
And that is saying something.

Ya, easy target is a strange one. You are taking on the entire media establishment, the Twitter borg, most of the political establishment, even having the taoiseach come out against you.

Donald Trump

robbiezero wrote: »

Ya, easy target is a strange one. You are taking on the entire media establishment, the Twitter borg, most of the political establishment, even having the taoiseach come out against you.

How did he "take on" anyone


Just made a few inflammatory statements in the hope it would get him his expenses back. Now he's free to slink off into the night. Doesn't have to answer to anyone.

robbiezero

Donald Trump wrote: »

How did he "take on" anyone


Just made a few inflammatory statements in the hope it would get him his expenses back. Now he's free to slink off into the night. Doesn't have to answer to anyone.

Mention anything negative about travellers and you will be vilified in the media as a racist and the twitter hive and social media which is what happened and is still happening. There was no guarantee that he would actually get the support he did. Even the Taoiseach called on people to send him a message by not voting for him.
I repeat, hardly an easy target.

dxhound2005

robbiezero wrote: »

Mention anything negative about travellers and you will be vilified in the media as a racist and the twitter hive and social media which is what happened and is still happening. There was no guarantee that he would actually get the support he did. Even the Taoiseach called on people to send him a message by not voting for him.
I repeat, hardly an easy target.

He doesn't have the wit to come up with this strategy. He must have some clever handlers, who observed what Trump and Farage achieved by using the same tactics.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump wrote: »

How did he "take on" anyone


Just made a few inflammatory statements in the hope it would get him his expenses back. Now he's free to slink off into the night. Doesn't have to answer to anyone.

He just said what a lot of people think and "the establishment" doesn't like him for upsetting the apple cart by commenting on things they would prefer to sweep under the carpet whenever possible.

AndrewJRenko

topper75 wrote: »

A target yes - the 'easy' adjective is rather strange. I can't conceive how you would call them an easy target.
They are some of the toughest, devil-may-care, brass-necked people you will meet in the entire island of Ireland.
And that is saying something.

It's easy for Casey because he'll never have to face them directly.


I see Casey has demonstrated his deep emotional intelligence further over the weekend, with his clumsy claim to become a spokesman for the Stardust families


https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/peter-casey-accused-exploiting-stardust-15341160


But I guess he learnt from that with his sensitive approach to Fianna Fail.

AndrewJRenko

robbiezero wrote: »

Mention anything negative about travellers and you will be vilified in the media as a racist

No you won't.



If you mention anything negative about specific travellers, you won't be villified as a racist.


If you mention anything negative about ALL travellers based on the actions of some travellers, you will be vilified in the media as a racist.

Donald Trump

Deleted User wrote: »

He just said what a lot of people think and "the establishment" doesn't like him for upsetting the apple cart by commenting on things they would prefer to sweep under the carpet whenever possible.

He was basically your average outraged and disgrunted boards.ie poster except with a microphone instead of a keyboard.




Hardly a hero for the ages now was he.


Maybe your wan Malala Yousafzai will share some of her awards with him :pac:

dav3

Some people need to look at the map below. It is a map of Ireland, it is a map of every constituency in Ireland.



Michael D Higgins won every single constituency.

Michael D Higgins won the urban and rural vote, he won the male vote, the female vote, the young vote, the elderly vote. He won the working class vote and the middle class vote.

He has ended up with the largest vote ever in the history of the state.

In 2011 Michael D Higgins won 36 out of 43 constituencies.
Sean Gallagher won 6 constituencies.
Martin McGuinness won 1.

In 2018 Michael D Higgins won 40 out of 40 constituencies.

In 2011 Michael D Higgins received 701,101 1st preference votes giving him 39.6% of the vote.
Second place Sean Gallagher, running as a bloke off tv putting it up to the establishment and 'telling it like it is', received 504,964 1st preference votes giving him 28.5% of the vote.

In 2018 Michael D Higgins increased his vote to 822,566 1st preference votes giving him 55.8% of the vote.
Second place Peter Casey received 342,727 1st preference votes giving him 23.3% of the vote.

There is no rural/urban divide. That is clear. A small whinging minority will not shape Irish politics.

The Casey supporters need to remember that they are a small minority. Like the Sean Gallagher vote, they will not be pandered to.

There is no growing anti-traveller, anti-Irish, anti-working class vote. The majority of Peter Casey voters will die over the next 10-20 years. There is no rise of right-wing thinking or right wing politics in Ireland. It has been the exact opposite. The right is slowly dying out in Ireland and there is nothing coming through. The people of Ireland have been moving away from the right in the huge numbers over the past number of years. Not just 5 or 10 years, but for almost half a century.



Before the right realise what is happening to them, they’ll be already dead. The silent majority spoke on Friday and returned Michael D Higgins in greater numbers than the last election. To use a phrase popular in politics these days, Michael D won, get over it.

enricoh

Yeah mickey d won the 18-25 student vote hands down. When they start paying taxes every week to be squandered on wasters i wonder will they be as left wing economically?

freshpopcorn

dav3 wrote: »

Some people need to look at the map below. It is a map of Ireland, it is a map of every constituency in Ireland.



Michael D Higgins won every single constituency.

Michael D Higgins won the urban and rural vote, he won the male vote, the female vote, the young vote, the elderly vote. He won the working class vote and the middle class vote.

He has ended up with the largest vote ever in the history of the state.

In 2011 Michael D Higgins won 36 out of 43 constituencies.
Sean Gallagher won 6 constituencies.
Martin McGuinness won 1.

In 2018 Michael D Higgins won 40 out of 40 constituencies.

In 2011 Michael D Higgins received 701,101 1st preference votes giving him 39.6% of the vote.
Second place Sean Gallagher, running as a bloke off tv putting it up to the establishment and 'telling it like it is', received 504,964 1st preference votes giving him 28.5% of the vote.

In 2018 Michael D Higgins increased his vote to 822,566 1st preference votes giving him 55.8% of the vote.
Second place Peter Casey received 342,727 1st preference votes giving him 23.3% of the vote.

There is no rural/urban divide. That is clear. A small whinging minority will not shape Irish politics.

The Casey supporters need to remember that they are a small minority. Like the Sean Gallagher vote, they will not be pandered to.

There is no growing anti-traveller, anti-Irish, anti-working class vote. The majority of Peter Casey voters will die over the next 10-20 years. There is no rise of right-wing thinking or right wing politics in Ireland. It has been the exact opposite. The right is slowly dying out in Ireland and there is nothing coming through. The people of Ireland have been moving away from the right in the huge numbers over the past number of years. Not just 5 or 10 years, but for almost half a century.



Before the right realise what is happening to them, they’ll be already dead. The silent majority spoke on Friday and returned Michael D Higgins in greater numbers than the last election. To use a phrase popular in politics these days, Michael D won, get over it.

Casey was on 2% of the vote in opinion polls and ended up on over 23%. That says a lot.

dav3

enricoh wrote: »

Yeah mickey d won the 18-25 student vote hands down. When they start paying taxes every week to be squandered on wasters i wonder will they be as left wing economically?

He won 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65+

More than all the other candidates combined.

https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2018/10/296718-rte-exit-poll-oct-2018-final-report.pdf

blinding

dav3 wrote: »

Some people need to look at the map below. It is a map of Ireland, it is a map of every constituency in Ireland.



Michael D Higgins won every single constituency.

Michael D Higgins won the urban and rural vote, he won the male vote, the female vote, the young vote, the elderly vote. He won the working class vote and the middle class vote.

He has ended up with the largest vote ever in the history of the state.

In 2011 Michael D Higgins won 36 out of 43 constituencies.
Sean Gallagher won 6 constituencies.
Martin McGuinness won 1.

In 2018 Michael D Higgins won 40 out of 40 constituencies.

In 2011 Michael D Higgins received 701,101 1st preference votes giving him 39.6% of the vote.
Second place Sean Gallagher, running as a bloke off tv putting it up to the establishment and 'telling it like it is', received 504,964 1st preference votes giving him 28.5% of the vote.

In 2018 Michael D Higgins increased his vote to 822,566 1st preference votes giving him 55.8% of the vote.
Second place Peter Casey received 342,727 1st preference votes giving him 23.3% of the vote.

There is no rural/urban divide. That is clear. A small whinging minority will not shape Irish politics.

The Casey supporters need to remember that they are a small minority. Like the Sean Gallagher vote, they will not be pandered to.

There is no growing anti-traveller, anti-Irish, anti-working class vote. The majority of Peter Casey voters will die over the next 10-20 years. There is no rise of right-wing thinking or right wing politics in Ireland. It has been the exact opposite. The right is slowly dying out in Ireland and there is nothing coming through. The people of Ireland have been moving away from the right in the huge numbers over the past number of years. Not just 5 or 10 years, but for almost half a century.



Before the right realise what is happening to them, they’ll be already dead. The silent majority spoke on Friday and returned Michael D Higgins in greater numbers than the last election. To use a phrase popular in politics these days, Michael D won, get over it.

One doth suggest

That

You doth protest too much .

Casey 1% to 23% in little over a week has sure rattled some Gilded Cages !

Anyway Leo got the message so a Clampdown on Rural Crime is in the Sock Drawer . Give it Socks Leo....or Else .

dav3

dav3 wrote: »

He won 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65+

More than all the other candidates combined.

https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2018/10/296718-rte-exit-poll-oct-2018-final-report.pdf

Yes he won, no doubt about that, but ask yourself why did the other four do so badly?
Did they switch to prevent a Casey win, or did they really like MDH?


If they switched to avoid a Casey win, why?

Coillte_Bhoy

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes he won, no doubt about that, but ask yourself why did the other four do so badly?
Did they switch to prevent a Casey win, or did they really like MDH?


If they switched to avoid a Casey win, why?

What? If anything MDH's vote suffered from the Casey surge

Coillte_Bhoy

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

What? If anything MDH's vote suffered from the Casey surge

No, it polarised the vote between the two.
Those who preferred the status quo and those who wanted a change in direction.