Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

looksee · 11-10-2018 10:36AM

I was just looking at the 5 day forcast on Met E, and the wind gusts do not seem to be nearly as strong as suggested by the charts here. Any thoughts, has the situation changed?

andyournameis · 11-10-2018 11:07AM

The media are really going to town on this storm.:cool: Anyone have any update to date graphs?

bnt · 11-10-2018 11:08AM

looksee wrote: »

I was just looking at the 5 day forcast on Met E, and the wind gusts do not seem to be nearly as strong as suggested by the charts here. Any thoughts, has the situation changed?

The charts are showing different things. The ones here are mostly wind gust speeds, while other charts show average speeds. Some French vocabulary may help, since that French site gets used a lot:

résumé -> summary
vent -> wind
moyen -> average
rafales -> gusts
eau précipitable -> rain
neige -> snow

P.S. keep an eye on the height of the winds on the chart. For surface winds, look for a height figure like 2m or 10m. If the chart says a number like "850 HPa" or lower, it's not showing surface winds.

okatied · 11-10-2018 11:17AM

Looks like NECG are meeting later today.
https://www.independent.ie/weather/storm-callum-officials-concerned-some-schools-will-not-be-in-a-position-to-open-tomorrow-37408092.html

Underground · 11-10-2018 11:22AM

Wonder how likely a red warning is?

randomname2005 · 11-10-2018 11:26AM

Underground wrote: »

Wonder how likely a red warning is?

I think at this stage it would require a big shift to the east.

Gavlor · 11-10-2018 11:34AM

I’m more concerned by the rain event in the south east on Saturday that I am about tonight’s storm. It’s looking like a wet one!

Hooter23 · 11-10-2018 11:35AM

It would not surprise me if this storm track shifts last minute...if the storm does not deepen as rapidly or deepens later than forecast...is all it would take to bring the storm closer to us

frosty123 · 11-10-2018 11:59AM

andyournameis wrote: »

The media are really going to town on this storm.:cool: Anyone have any update to date graphs?

the media need to be careful they don't hype it too much....otherwise if its a damp squib people won't take further storm warnings seriously

harr · 11-10-2018 12:08PM

I am in kildare and just got a text from child’s school saying that it is unlikely the school will open tomorrow and that they will make that decision this evening.
We are only in an orange area , going by what people are saying here and the charts it definitely doesn’t look like school closers are needed just yet.
The media are definitely ramping this up as someone else said if it doesn’t materialise you are at the risk of people not taking future warnings seriously.

Rikand · 11-10-2018 12:13PM

harr wrote: »

I am in kildare and just got a text from child’s school saying that it is unlikely the school will open tomorrow and that they will make that decision this evening.
We are only in an orange area , going by what people are saying here and the charts it definitely doesn’t look like school closers are needed just yet.
The media are definitely ramping this up as someone else said if it doesn’t materialise you are at the risk of people not taking future warnings seriously.

Better safe than sorry

Sycamore Tree · 11-10-2018 12:13PM

harr wrote: »

I am in kildare and just got a text from child’s school saying that it is unlikely the school will open tomorrow and that they will make that decision this evening.
We are only in an orange area , going by what people are saying here and the charts it definitely doesn’t look like school closers are needed just yet.
The media are definitely ramping this up as someone else said if it doesn’t materialise you are at the risk of people not taking future warnings seriously.

I believe Kildare is in the Yellow warning list.

I agree, over-hyping these events will lead to apathy.

Storm Callum: South to southeast winds will gust to between 90 and 110 km/h. A spell of heavy rain will accompany the winds.
Valid from Friday 12 October 2018 00:01 to Friday 12 October 2018 09:00

Oscar Bravo · 11-10-2018 12:14PM

Cork airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 60 knots between midnight and 2am.strong enough.

knipex · 11-10-2018 12:19PM

KingBobby wrote: »

I have a 16ft trampoline in a fairly exposed location. I've nothing to tie it down to and at the moment i've been using 12x 20kg sand bags to secure it. It shifted a fair bit in the last storm so i'm a bit worried now for tonight. I just got another 5x 25kg bags. Should I get more?

Just disconnect the springs and remove the bed. You can fold that up and put it away for the winter. Without all that surface area the risk of it blowing away will be far less.

nim1bdeh38l2cw · 11-10-2018 12:23PM

KingBobby wrote: »

I have a 16ft trampoline in a fairly exposed location. I've nothing to tie it down to and at the moment i've been using 12x 20kg sand bags to secure it. It shifted a fair bit in the last storm so i'm a bit worried now for tonight. I just got another 5x 25kg bags. Should I get more?

Just move it to the neighbours garden. It'll be back in yours by tomorrow morning.

Storm 10 · 11-10-2018 12:31PM

KingBobby wrote: »

I have a 16ft trampoline in a fairly exposed location. I've nothing to tie it down to and at the moment i've been using 12x 20kg sand bags to secure it. It shifted a fair bit in the last storm so i'm a bit worried now for tonight. I just got another 5x 25kg bags. Should I get more?

Guys as was posted yesterday can we stay on the Storm, surely you can decide for yourself what to do around your house, this is just getting silly now.

11-10-2018 12:31PM

I've a feeling I'll go to bed on an orange warning and wake up to red. So I'll bring the laptop home this evening just to be safe

limericklad87 · 11-10-2018 12:31PM

KingBobby wrote: »

I have a 16ft trampoline in a fairly exposed location. I've nothing to tie it down to and at the moment i've been using 12x 20kg sand bags to secure it. It shifted a fair bit in the last storm so i'm a bit worried now for tonight. I just got another 5x 25kg bags. Should I get more?

Can you not just flip it over

Mr Velo · 11-10-2018 12:34PM

limericklad87 wrote: »

Can you not just flip it over

I did that for Ophelia. Turned it upside down (obviously netting etc was taken off it) and put some sandbags on undercarriage.

Villain · 11-10-2018 12:35PM

He is getting going now!

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1050347505123291137

TopOfTheHill · 11-10-2018 12:37PM

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Cork airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 60 knots between midnight and 2am.strong enough.

Hi,

Where can this be seen?
I have 6AM flight from Cork, so want to keep an eye on as much as possible.

Cheers

jimbobaloobob · 11-10-2018 12:39PM

What is the expected landfall time on the west coast Galway, West Conamara, thank you

Storm 10 · 11-10-2018 12:43PM

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

What is the expected landfall time on the west coast Galway, West Conamara, thank you

Roughly around midnight, I passed Galway Docks this morning and the tide was nearly up to the top of the quay, the tides are currently very high so with storm force winds and a low pressure system flooding will be a major concern.

loveisdivine · 11-10-2018 12:43PM

Does seem like maybe we could go to bed with one warning and wake up to a different one. Thankfully, my employer automatically closes on a red warning. The boss knew one of the people that died in the Ophelia so now he takes no risks.

Oscar Bravo · 11-10-2018 12:46PM

TopOfTheHill wrote: »

Hi,

Where can this be seen?
I have 6AM flight from Cork, so want to keep an eye on as much as possible.

Cheers

I cant comment on the 6am flight but the worst of the winds will have passed that area by then. the TAF will update at 6pm and again at Midnight.

Tombo2001 · 11-10-2018 12:46PM

Neighbours house was quite badly damaged by trampoline in storm three weeks ago, smashed their window.

On a separate note - the storm three weeks ago for me anyway was beyond what I had expected; I'd actually say its the worst storm I've ever seen in terms of damage done, maybe the worse since Hurricane Charlie; and regardless of whether it was red or orange or yellow, I didnt really pick up much sense of urgency about it from Met Eireann or from the media before the event.

cherryghost · 11-10-2018 12:47PM

Can we have a technical discussion thread please, this is getting a bit silly

asteroids over berlin · 11-10-2018 12:48PM

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Neighbours house was quite badly damaged by trampoline in storm three weeks ago, smashed their window.

On a separate note - the storm three weeks ago for me anyway was beyond what I had expected; I'd actually say its the worst storm I've ever seen in terms of damage done, maybe the worse since Hurricane Charlie; and regardless of whether it was red or orange or yellow, I didnt really pick up much sense of urgency about it from Met Eireann or from the media before the event.

didn't think it was that bad? Trees suffered most as they still had their full head of leaves on them!

PLL · 11-10-2018 12:52PM

Lots of road closure from this afternoon in galway city due to flood risk.

https://www.facebook.com/148746965181554/posts/1973581919364707/

Meteorite58 · 11-10-2018 12:56PM

Quick scan of the current charts would suggest to me that they are displaying wind speeds up again from the previous two runs. Can see a large swathe of gusts 110 to 115 sweeping up over Munster in the early hours. Also showing gusts 120km/ h + over kerry and possibly Cork. The SE has been increasing in speeds also showing 120+ on the coast, 110 + inland.

I think S kerry / Dingle Peninsula could see around 130Km/ h . The coastal W up again , 130 km/ h maybe more. I think the models have brought the core winds closer to the W coast . Fri Afternoon split in models re strong winds in the S, SE E , will need to monitor.

Next model runs will be key.

Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST