nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

looksee

I was just looking at the 5 day forcast on Met E, and the wind gusts do not seem to be nearly as strong as suggested by the charts here. Any thoughts, has the situation changed?

andyournameis

The media are really going to town on this storm.:cool: Anyone have any update to date graphs?

bnt

looksee wrote: »

I was just looking at the 5 day forcast on Met E, and the wind gusts do not seem to be nearly as strong as suggested by the charts here. Any thoughts, has the situation changed?

The charts are showing different things. The ones here are mostly wind gust speeds, while other charts show average speeds. Some French vocabulary may help, since that French site gets used a lot:

résumé -> summary
vent -> wind
moyen -> average
rafales -> gusts
eau précipitable -> rain
neige -> snow

P.S. keep an eye on the height of the winds on the chart. For surface winds, look for a height figure like 2m or 10m. If the chart says a number like "850 HPa" or lower, it's not showing surface winds.

okatied

Looks like NECG are meeting later today.
https://www.independent.ie/weather/storm-callum-officials-concerned-some-schools-will-not-be-in-a-position-to-open-tomorrow-37408092.html

Underground

Wonder how likely a red warning is?

randomname2005

Underground wrote: »

Wonder how likely a red warning is?

I think at this stage it would require a big shift to the east.

Gavlor

I’m more concerned by the rain event in the south east on Saturday that I am about tonight’s storm. It’s looking like a wet one!

Hooter23

It would not surprise me if this storm track shifts last minute...if the storm does not deepen as rapidly or deepens later than forecast...is all it would take to bring the storm closer to us

frosty123

andyournameis wrote: »

The media are really going to town on this storm.:cool: Anyone have any update to date graphs?

the media need to be careful they don't hype it too much....otherwise if its a damp squib people won't take further storm warnings seriously

harr

I am in kildare and just got a text from child’s school saying that it is unlikely the school will open tomorrow and that they will make that decision this evening.
We are only in an orange area , going by what people are saying here and the charts it definitely doesn’t look like school closers are needed just yet.
The media are definitely ramping this up as someone else said if it doesn’t materialise you are at the risk of people not taking future warnings seriously.

Rikand

harr wrote: »

I am in kildare and just got a text from child’s school saying that it is unlikely the school will open tomorrow and that they will make that decision this evening.
We are only in an orange area , going by what people are saying here and the charts it definitely doesn’t look like school closers are needed just yet.
The media are definitely ramping this up as someone else said if it doesn’t materialise you are at the risk of people not taking future warnings seriously.

Better safe than sorry

Sycamore Tree

harr wrote: »

I am in kildare and just got a text from child’s school saying that it is unlikely the school will open tomorrow and that they will make that decision this evening.
We are only in an orange area , going by what people are saying here and the charts it definitely doesn’t look like school closers are needed just yet.
The media are definitely ramping this up as someone else said if it doesn’t materialise you are at the risk of people not taking future warnings seriously.

I believe Kildare is in the Yellow warning list.

I agree, over-hyping these events will lead to apathy.

Storm Callum: South to southeast winds will gust to between 90 and 110 km/h. A spell of heavy rain will accompany the winds.
Valid from Friday 12 October 2018 00:01 to Friday 12 October 2018 09:00

Oscar Bravo

Cork airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 60 knots between midnight and 2am.strong enough.

knipex

KingBobby wrote: »

I have a 16ft trampoline in a fairly exposed location. I've nothing to tie it down to and at the moment i've been using 12x 20kg sand bags to secure it. It shifted a fair bit in the last storm so i'm a bit worried now for tonight. I just got another 5x 25kg bags. Should I get more?

Just disconnect the springs and remove the bed. You can fold that up and put it away for the winter. Without all that surface area the risk of it blowing away will be far less.

nim1bdeh38l2cw

KingBobby wrote: »

I have a 16ft trampoline in a fairly exposed location. I've nothing to tie it down to and at the moment i've been using 12x 20kg sand bags to secure it. It shifted a fair bit in the last storm so i'm a bit worried now for tonight. I just got another 5x 25kg bags. Should I get more?

Just move it to the neighbours garden. It'll be back in yours by tomorrow morning.

Storm 10

KingBobby wrote: »

I have a 16ft trampoline in a fairly exposed location. I've nothing to tie it down to and at the moment i've been using 12x 20kg sand bags to secure it. It shifted a fair bit in the last storm so i'm a bit worried now for tonight. I just got another 5x 25kg bags. Should I get more?

Guys as was posted yesterday can we stay on the Storm, surely you can decide for yourself what to do around your house, this is just getting silly now.

[Deleted User]

I've a feeling I'll go to bed on an orange warning and wake up to red. So I'll bring the laptop home this evening just to be safe

limericklad87

KingBobby wrote: »

I have a 16ft trampoline in a fairly exposed location. I've nothing to tie it down to and at the moment i've been using 12x 20kg sand bags to secure it. It shifted a fair bit in the last storm so i'm a bit worried now for tonight. I just got another 5x 25kg bags. Should I get more?

Can you not just flip it over

Mr Velo

limericklad87 wrote: »

Can you not just flip it over

I did that for Ophelia. Turned it upside down (obviously netting etc was taken off it) and put some sandbags on undercarriage.

Villain

He is getting going now!

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1050347505123291137

TopOfTheHill

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Cork airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 60 knots between midnight and 2am.strong enough.

Hi,

Where can this be seen?
I have 6AM flight from Cork, so want to keep an eye on as much as possible.

Cheers

jimbobaloobob

What is the expected landfall time on the west coast Galway, West Conamara, thank you

Storm 10

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

What is the expected landfall time on the west coast Galway, West Conamara, thank you

Roughly around midnight, I passed Galway Docks this morning and the tide was nearly up to the top of the quay, the tides are currently very high so with storm force winds and a low pressure system flooding will be a major concern.

loveisdivine

Does seem like maybe we could go to bed with one warning and wake up to a different one. Thankfully, my employer automatically closes on a red warning. The boss knew one of the people that died in the Ophelia so now he takes no risks.

Oscar Bravo

TopOfTheHill wrote: »

Hi,

Where can this be seen?
I have 6AM flight from Cork, so want to keep an eye on as much as possible.

Cheers

I cant comment on the 6am flight but the worst of the winds will have passed that area by then. the TAF will update at 6pm and again at Midnight.

Tombo2001

Neighbours house was quite badly damaged by trampoline in storm three weeks ago, smashed their window.

On a separate note - the storm three weeks ago for me anyway was beyond what I had expected; I'd actually say its the worst storm I've ever seen in terms of damage done, maybe the worse since Hurricane Charlie; and regardless of whether it was red or orange or yellow, I didnt really pick up much sense of urgency about it from Met Eireann or from the media before the event.

cherryghost

Can we have a technical discussion thread please, this is getting a bit silly

asteroids over berlin

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Neighbours house was quite badly damaged by trampoline in storm three weeks ago, smashed their window.

On a separate note - the storm three weeks ago for me anyway was beyond what I had expected; I'd actually say its the worst storm I've ever seen in terms of damage done, maybe the worse since Hurricane Charlie; and regardless of whether it was red or orange or yellow, I didnt really pick up much sense of urgency about it from Met Eireann or from the media before the event.

didn't think it was that bad? Trees suffered most as they still had their full head of leaves on them!

PLL

Lots of road closure from this afternoon in galway city due to flood risk.

https://www.facebook.com/148746965181554/posts/1973581919364707/

Meteorite58

Quick scan of the current charts would suggest to me that they are displaying wind speeds up again from the previous two runs. Can see a large swathe of gusts 110 to 115 sweeping up over Munster in the early hours. Also showing gusts 120km/ h + over kerry and possibly Cork. The SE has been increasing in speeds also showing 120+ on the coast, 110 + inland.

I think S kerry / Dingle Peninsula could see around 130Km/ h . The coastal W up again , 130 km/ h maybe more. I think the models have brought the core winds closer to the W coast . Fri Afternoon split in models re strong winds in the S, SE E , will need to monitor.

Next model runs will be key.