beef price tracker

morphy87 · 19-09-2018 11:27PM

3 75 slaney

kk.man · 19-09-2018 11:49PM

blue5000 wrote: »

Thanks Bass and Will for putting up the figures as they really are. Has anyone had the balls to ask their agent/procurement manager what Spring prices will be like? Or even after Brexit?

The agent/procurement manager doesn't know much and only follow instructions. They really would never give you a definite answer.
I've known alot of these for years and crystal ball forecasting is not their forte through no fault of their own.

Bass Reeves · 20-09-2018 07:19AM

blue5000 wrote: »

Thanks Bass and Will for putting up the figures as they really are. Has anyone had the balls to ask their agent/procurement manager what Spring prices will be like? Or even after Brexit?

No point most of us remember the bull debacle a few years ago after the horse meat scandal. Larry and Co bought loads of store HE bullocks in late August and Sept. They killed them before and after Christmas and backed up the Bulls. I remember being told that Autumn there be no issue with bulls under 24 months but not to let them go over the 24 months. We took 3.4/kg for R grade bulls. Winter finishing has never recovered from that lads took too much of a hit.

Until we have producer groups sanctioned in law and processors compelled to deal with producer groups there will never be forwarding pricing for ordinary farmers.

wrangler · 20-09-2018 08:48AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

No point most of us remember the bull debacle a few years ago after the horse meat scandal. Larry and Co bought loads of store HE bullocks in late August and Sept. They killed them before and after Christmas and backed up the Bulls. I remember being told that Autumn there be no issue with bulls under 24 months but not to let them go over the 24 months. We took 3.4/kg for R grade bulls. Winter finishing has never recovered from that lads took too much of a hit.

Until we have producer groups sanctioned in law and processors compelled to deal with producer groups there will never be forwarding pricing for ordinary farmers.

Padraig browne in Dunbia was flagging the problem with bulls for twelve mths before the whole thing blew up, he was telling us to talk to the processors before commiting to feeding bulls.....at the time bulls were a good trade and to be honest I was made little of when I flagged it at meetings.
Your last paragraph is unrealistic, to enforce a customer to buy your product whatever the quality wont happen. Get the quality right first and then try to sell it.
For a factory not to feed their own cattle to ensure supply would be the same as a good dairy farmer depending on buying in all their winter feed,...very foolish.

Willfarman · 20-09-2018 09:58AM

Padraig browne done no such flagging nor did teagasc.. and super shiney simon who was always excited about China and America and press release after press release of our entry into these markets.
was in a beef trading discussion group in 2013 and it was all Frisian bull and 1000eur gross margins.
Madness. But did we learn anything?
I’m not sure forward pricing would do much for my enterprise as it’s a trading system. I am reliant on dips and troughs in the market for a twist as only so much can be done on the production side.

Store price is everything to me and I often despise my competing buyers who don’t seem to care about a margin as much as I despise Larry. As I have said on this before. Buying from farmers to sell to Larry is a bad business model. I need my head examined!

blue5000 · 20-09-2018 10:57AM

I think we all have to use our own judgement as to what cattle we want to buy and when we would 'like' to sell them at a 'profit/loss:eek:'.
The peaks are going to be small next year IMHO, If feed is tight, and let's face it lads, it's not plentiful, let the factories finish cattle for the first half of the year I think.

wrangler · 20-09-2018 11:32AM

Willfarman wrote: »

Padraig browne done no such flagging nor did teagasc.. and super shiney simon who was always excited about China and America and press release after press release of our entry into these markets.
was in a beef trading discussion group in 2013 and it was all Frisian bull and 1000eur gross margins.
Madness. But did we learn anything?
I’m not sure forward pricing would do much for my enterprise as it’s a trading system. I am reliant on dips and troughs in the market for a twist as only so much can be done on the production side.

Store price is everything to me and I often despise my competing buyers who don’t seem to care about a margin as much as I despise Larry. As I have said on this before. Buying from farmers to sell to Larry is a bad business model. I need my head examined!

That's exactly the attitude I got from the meetings that I relayed Padraigs concerns to, with know alls telling me they had killed 450 +kg bulls that week etc. As you say profits from feeding bulls were unreal...a real pyramid scheme, there was only one way it was going to go....overdone
There's none so blind as those that don't want to see.

Cavanjack · 20-09-2018 08:01PM

wrangler wrote: »

That's exactly the attitude I got from the meetings that I relayed Padraigs concerns to, with know alls telling me they had killed 450 +kg bulls that week etc. As you say profits from feeding bulls were unreal...a real pyramid scheme, there was only one way it was going to go....overdone
There's none so blind as those that don't want to see.

I killed a good few bulls in late spring greater than 470kg and got €4.15 a kg for them. A few were greater than 500kg and no word of over weight. One was 530kg and got cut 10cent on him. Fair enough. Killed more earlier on in the year with average weights of not much less than 450kg.
There was nothing to suggest that they did not want them or did not have a market for them, quite the opposite in fact. If they come along this coming spring and cut hell out of the same type stock withough good warning then this is surely unfair. It's wouldn't be a big job to send a mail to every supplier on their books 6 months before they start feeding cattle.

patsy_mccabe · 20-09-2018 08:24PM

Would a Beef Future Pricing market put an end of all this madness? It seems to work well in the USA. Farmers could hedge against price fluctuations by buying futures.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/meats

Danzy · 21-09-2018 02:14PM

riemann wrote: »

In the short-term the processors have decided well in advance what their prices will be. They are aware of the nos coming on stream because of the 30 month limit.

Expect a bottom out in the next few weeks, with a stabilisation and slight recovery as we approach the Christmas market.

Medium term I always look to the previous few years as a guide, barring a horse meat like scandal one can expect price trends to realise.

As regards Brexit I'd be very weary of anyone soliciting advice, it's unknown territory. On a personal level I can see a massive delay, maybe even a 2nd referendum. The Irish beef industry is in a perilous position should a worst case senario materialise, in reality I can't see that happenning as there is simply too much as steak if you will. For me it's not a time for taking massive risks or over stocking, I'll be observing from as far as possible. It doesn't help that these are the years the new CAP will be calculated on, but common sense must prevail.

I'm upping numbers by about a third this year. I was doing it anyway and had silage ground reserved accordingly in the Spring. Just to a more appropriate stocking level, having had the place over 2 years. It was cut before the drying really caught growth.

As for Brexit, if it is a WTO trade terms deal, the ultimate hard Brexit, then Cattle will be a disaster in a way that might be worse than the 30s. Beef from a bullock at 3.85 a KG would be about 7.20 euro with tariffs in Britain and that would be before any shop or man got his cut there.

It is so unworkable as to not be a concern for us. Like what you'll do the weekend after a nuclear war.

3 or 4 years down the line Brexit could be different and a big worry then.

Ultimately a deal will be done, the Eu, more so the Eurozone has fallen down badly as a project in 2 key areas, job and growth.

The Eurozone used to be roughly the same size as America's economy, it is now about 50% smaller.

They can no more afford to turn their back on one of the biggest economies in the World, than the Brits can turn their back on it.

I says · 24-09-2018 09:20PM

3.75 base steers in thoroughbred country this week

morphy87 · 24-09-2018 10:55PM

3 75 south east bullocks

Cavanjack · 24-09-2018 11:05PM

morphy87 wrote: »

3 75 south east bullocks

Same in the north east. Hear 3.70 is going too.

Willfarman · 24-09-2018 11:31PM

You’d have to have cattle booked into slaney last week to be on 3.75. On 3.70 now.
A post up on Facebook about a bit of a stir brewing. A factory picket /boycott.

Cavanjack · 25-09-2018 08:49AM

Was talking to an agent over the weekend, he was told to find out who is feeding over the winter and how many. They are worried about supplies for the spring he said.

Pidae.m · 25-09-2018 09:24AM

Cavanjack wrote: »

Was talking to an agent over the weekend, he was told to find out who is feeding over the winter and how many. They are worried about supplies for the spring he said.

Only started buying for themselves with the last week down here for there own sheds

Base price · 25-09-2018 10:31AM

Willfarman wrote: »

You’d have to have cattle booked into slaney last week to be on 3.75. On 3.70 now.
A post up on Facebook about a bit of a stir brewing. A factory picket /boycott.

This?
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/new-beef-group-to-be-launched-406009

wrangler · 25-09-2018 10:39AM

Base price wrote: »

This?
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/new-beef-group-to-be-launched-406009

Competition Authority won't allow that and well the factories know it

Bass Reeves · 25-09-2018 11:49AM

Cavanjack wrote: »

Was talking to an agent over the weekend, he was told to find out who is feeding over the winter and how many. They are worried about supplies for the spring he said.

Pidae.m wrote: »

Only started buying for themselves with the last week down here for there own sheds

They have reason to be. Processors think that by reducing factory prices they can force store prices down. The only problem is that lads that are getting hit are finishers who have to go out and buy stores with less in there pocket. Most have struggled over the last few years to break even at finishing. It has becom too expensive. Risk are huge and lads have been well burnt paying for cattle and feed up front to find post Christmass factory's rushing to cut the price of finished beef. Lads then have to compete for expensive stores in spring to put to grass. As well by finishing over the winter you hit nitrates issues and this hits you ability to access envoirmental schemes

The out look is too poor even without taking Brexit into account. Rations 20% motre expensive and going up in price silage and straw at record prices and forward stores are still too erxpensive. The lad finishing 20-100 are exiting and any dairy farmer that used to finish a few cattle is targeting any fodder on hand at his cows this year. With the price silage and maize silage is making most lads that finished cattle in the eastern part of the country are taking the money.

Processors themselves buying cattle has runied finishers they use these to keep a lid on prices so as Willfarmer said in another thread there is no peaks and troughs to amke money. From around 2006-2014 I used to make a nice twist before and after Christmas. I used to finish 20-30 mostly friesian bulls killing 290-350 kgs. Used to buy at different stages. They left a nice margin. After the bull debacle a few years ago I exited that and then finished a few bullocks for a while. Now I have stopped that as well. Why would you put cattle into a shed with the risk's and costs involved.

Willfarman · 25-09-2018 12:08PM

Base price wrote: »

This?
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/new-beef-group-to-be-launched-406009

Yes. It has potential while the weather holds

Base price · 25-09-2018 02:34PM

wrangler wrote: »

Competition Authority won't allow that and well the factories know it

Why wrangler, I thought there was backing for producer groups from DAFM.

wrangler · 25-09-2018 03:56PM

Base price wrote: »

Why wrangler, I thought there was backing for producer groups from DAFM.

''If the response isn’t adequate, the plan proposes “not to send any cattle to a factory under a set price” and “not to send cattle to a particular factory at short notice”.

CA would be likely to regard that as price fixing

Pidae.m · 25-09-2018 03:56PM

Base price wrote: »

Why wrangler, I thought there was backing for producer groups from DAFM.

There is one in fermoy do, its called the Blackwater producer group. For example they've about 500 cull fr cows between them that they sell. Think they are a mix of dairy and dry stock

Base price · 25-09-2018 09:37PM

wrangler wrote: »

''If the response isn’t adequate, the plan proposes “not to send any cattle to a factory under a set price” and “not to send cattle to a particular factory at short notice”.

CA would be likely to regard that as price fixing

You are the only person that I know is in a producer group. I presume it works as follows - A number of farmers with simular type animals agree to join together to form a group in order to maximise their selling power. They make an arrangement (legal?) with a factory (one or more?) to supply a certain number of animals on a regular basis (weekly/fortnightly - for the year?) that fulfill a predetermined specification (weight/confirmation/fatscore etc) by the factory.
Is the price per kg agreed prior to supply and does the price hold for the year presuming specifications are met.

What happens if the group cannot supply the required number of animals.
What happens if there is an over supply of animals in any particular week - i.e is there a reduction in the price per kg.
Can members of the group sell to other factories that the group does not have an agreement with.
* What happens if another factory (that the group does not have an agreement with) have a higher price per kg for the specification.
** What happens if the price collapses due to a horse meat type scandal.
I've more questions that I thought about during the day but I've forgotten them at the min.

wrangler · 25-09-2018 09:59PM

Base price wrote: »

You are the only person that I know is in a producer group. I presume it works as follows - A number of farmers with simular type animals agree to join together to form a group in order to maximise their selling power. They make an arrangement (legal?) with a factory (one or more?) to supply a certain number of animals on a regular basis (weekly/fortnightly - for the year?) that fulfill a predetermined specification (weight/confirmation/fatscore etc) by the factory.
Is the price per kg agreed prior to supply and does the price hold for the year presuming specifications are met.

What happens if the group cannot supply the required number of animals.
What happens if there is an over supply of animals in any particular week - i.e is there a reduction in the price per kg.
Can members of the group sell to other factories that the group does not have an agreement with. I've more questions that I thought about during the day but I've forgotten them at the min.

We agree the bonuses (and penalties) at the start of the year and the base price is based on the journal quotes each week,
Each member tells them roughly how many we'll have each month but the numbers don't have to be that exact.
Generally members sell all to the group, if they have inspec lambs they won't do any better anywhere else but if they're not inspec they won't do well, some people haven't time to weigh every week/
Factory take whatever we supply every week, lorries get a time slot of when to arrive and get priority in those time slots, very seldom they would get delayed.
Our group is going since the late sixties and we have the same coordinator since then and he has a lot to do with the success of it
IF there was a problem with price you'd only have to set up with it and try to tighten up next years agreement, members seem happy enough with the way we're treated

Base price · 26-09-2018 02:25AM

wrangler wrote: »

We agree the bonuses (and penalties) at the start of the year and the base price is based on the journal quotes each week,
Each member tells them roughly how many we'll have each month but the numbers don't have to be that exact.
Generally members sell all to the group, if they have inspec lambs they won't do any better anywhere else but if they're not inspec they won't do well, some people haven't time to weigh every week/
Factory take whatever we supply every week, lorries get a time slot of when to arrive and get priority in those time slots, very seldom they would get delayed.
Our group is going since the late sixties and we have the same coordinator since then and he has a lot to do with the success of it
IF there was a problem with price you'd only have to set up with it and try to tighten up next years agreement, members seem happy enough with the way we're treated

So other than knowing what the bonuses and penalties are (+/- per kg) the producer group are taking the same price as everyone else?
We have a good friend who is a beef farmer in Texas. He can forward sell a percentage of his cattle at a guaranteed price per lb to the factories. He can buy an additional insurance policy to cover a price shift.

He can also forward purchase feed/minerals- maize, wheat, barley etc and he can also buy an insurance policy to cover any abrupt shift in price.

Other than the use of hormones in the USA why can't we Irish follow a simular plan

Fireside Solicitor · 26-09-2018 06:35AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

They have reason to be. Processors think that by reducing factory prices they can force store prices down. The only problem is that lads that are getting hit are finishers who have to go out and buy stores with less in there pocket. Most have struggled over the last few years to break even at finishing. It has becom too expensive. Risk are huge and lads have been well burnt paying for cattle and feed up front to find post Christmass factory's rushing to cut the price of finished beef. Lads then have to compete for expensive stores in spring to put to grass. As well by finishing over the winter you hit nitrates issues and this hits you ability to access envoirmental schemes

The out look is too poor even without taking Brexit into account. Rations 20% motre expensive and going up in price silage and straw at record prices and forward stores are still too erxpensive. The lad finishing 20-100 are exiting and any dairy farmer that used to finish a few cattle is targeting any fodder on hand at his cows this year. With the price silage and maize silage is making most lads that finished cattle in the eastern part of the country are taking the money.

Processors themselves buying cattle has runied finishers they use these to keep a lid on prices so as Willfarmer said in another thread there is no peaks and troughs to amke money. From around 2006-2014 I used to make a nice twist before and after Christmas. I used to finish 20-30 mostly friesian bulls killing 290-350 kgs. Used to buy at different stages. They left a nice margin. After the bull debacle a few years ago I exited that and then finished a few bullocks for a while. Now I have stopped that as well. Why would you put cattle into a shed with the risk's and costs involved.

Killing the last of 60 bullocks at the minute and that will be it. Have the silage sold to a dairy man given the price in our neck of the woods and a deal done with a sheepman to graze the place out over next few months. Wintering is dead. Will buy a few in the spring but seriously thinking of letting part of the place to the dairy man. I’m 60 and too old to go down that route myself. Will make a decision by Christmas. 4 other lads in our area have given up either beer or tillage in last couple of years.

wrangler · 26-09-2018 08:08AM

Base price wrote: »

So other than knowing what the bonuses and penalties are (+/- per kg) the producer group are taking the same price as everyone else?
We have a good friend who is a beef farmer in Texas. He can forward sell a percentage of his cattle at a guaranteed price per lb to the factories. He can buy an additional insurance policy to cover a price shift.

He can also forward purchase feed/minerals- maize, wheat, barley etc and he can also buy an insurance policy to cover any abrupt shift in price.

Other than the use of hormones in the USA why can't we Irish follow a simular plan

I can't see where a better price is going to come from if people keep using SFP to subsidise cattle prices. The annual roll out of ''cattle are making €250/hd in England'' means nothing as England can get imported beef at the same price any where else in Europe for catering, burgers, etc,
Until there's a crisis (which mightn't be too far way) where people stop feeding cattle this won't be sorted, as bad as this year is I guarantee that you'll see an increase in price and demand for store cattle when SFP arrives.
As for producer groups, they're not Utopia, but there's lots of people taking very little more than the journal quotes for their lamb and they're getting ripped off as well in the marts so it saves our farmers from that......some of our members might only be selling 50 or 100 lambs in the year. Factories won't compete for groups, sure everyone knows there's no cartel in factories :rolleyes:
What's your friend getting for beef, hormone are a huge help there

Fireside Solicitor · 26-09-2018 08:37AM

There is a businessman near us inherited the place off his father. It is a good farm with 20k sfp. Yer man if he looks at it once a week that’s it. He has 70 bullocks and tells me he doesn’t care if they make anything once they don’t cost him anything......he wouldn’t have clue what happens with them.He was joking with one of the lads that the farm was great for hiding expenses from the tax man. This man drives a 100k bmw. When the system treats him the same as me sure it will never be right

Danzy · 26-09-2018 10:45AM

Base price wrote: »

So other than knowing what the bonuses and penalties are (+/- per kg) the producer group are taking the same price as everyone else?
We have a good friend who is a beef farmer in Texas. He can forward sell a percentage of his cattle at a guaranteed price per lb to the factories. He can buy an additional insurance policy to cover a price shift.

He can also forward purchase feed/minerals- maize, wheat, barley etc and he can also buy an insurance policy to cover any abrupt shift in price.

Other than the use of hormones in the USA why can't we Irish follow a simular plan

I had cousins over from Queensland, 12000 acres stocked at one to three acres, no wintering, some baled silage for weaklings and all the witchiti bugs a man could eat.

Our grass is unsurpassable but our winters and their scale are the problem.

The man in Texas or my cousins wouldn't know what a pallet of fertilizer was. They get high quality grain for next to nothing.

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