blue5000 wrote: » Thanks Bass and Will for putting up the figures as they really are. Has anyone had the balls to ask their agent/procurement manager what Spring prices will be like? Or even after Brexit?
Bass Reeves wrote: » No point most of us remember the bull debacle a few years ago after the horse meat scandal. Larry and Co bought loads of store HE bullocks in late August and Sept. They killed them before and after Christmas and backed up the Bulls. I remember being told that Autumn there be no issue with bulls under 24 months but not to let them go over the 24 months. We took 3.4/kg for R grade bulls. Winter finishing has never recovered from that lads took too much of a hit. Until we have producer groups sanctioned in law and processors compelled to deal with producer groups there will never be forwarding pricing for ordinary farmers.
Willfarman wrote: » Padraig browne done no such flagging nor did teagasc.. and super shiney simon who was always excited about China and America and press release after press release of our entry into these markets. was in a beef trading discussion group in 2013 and it was all Frisian bull and 1000eur gross margins. Madness. But did we learn anything? I’m not sure forward pricing would do much for my enterprise as it’s a trading system. I am reliant on dips and troughs in the market for a twist as only so much can be done on the production side. Store price is everything to me and I often despise my competing buyers who don’t seem to care about a margin as much as I despise Larry. As I have said on this before. Buying from farmers to sell to Larry is a bad business model. I need my head examined!
wrangler wrote: » That's exactly the attitude I got from the meetings that I relayed Padraigs concerns to, with know alls telling me they had killed 450 +kg bulls that week etc. As you say profits from feeding bulls were unreal...a real pyramid scheme, there was only one way it was going to go....overdone There's none so blind as those that don't want to see.
riemann wrote: » In the short-term the processors have decided well in advance what their prices will be. They are aware of the nos coming on stream because of the 30 month limit. Expect a bottom out in the next few weeks, with a stabilisation and slight recovery as we approach the Christmas market. Medium term I always look to the previous few years as a guide, barring a horse meat like scandal one can expect price trends to realise. As regards Brexit I'd be very weary of anyone soliciting advice, it's unknown territory. On a personal level I can see a massive delay, maybe even a 2nd referendum. The Irish beef industry is in a perilous position should a worst case senario materialise, in reality I can't see that happenning as there is simply too much as steak if you will. For me it's not a time for taking massive risks or over stocking, I'll be observing from as far as possible. It doesn't help that these are the years the new CAP will be calculated on, but common sense must prevail.
morphy87 wrote: » 3 75 south east bullocks
Cavanjack wrote: » Was talking to an agent over the weekend, he was told to find out who is feeding over the winter and how many. They are worried about supplies for the spring he said.
Willfarman wrote: » You’d have to have cattle booked into slaney last week to be on 3.75. On 3.70 now. A post up on Facebook about a bit of a stir brewing. A factory picket /boycott.
Base price wrote: » This?https://www.farmersjournal.ie/new-beef-group-to-be-launched-406009
Pidae.m wrote: » Only started buying for themselves with the last week down here for there own sheds
wrangler wrote: » Competition Authority won't allow that and well the factories know it
Base price wrote: » Why wrangler, I thought there was backing for producer groups from DAFM.
wrangler wrote: » ''If the response isn’t adequate, the plan proposes “not to send any cattle to a factory under a set price” and “not to send cattle to a particular factory at short notice”. CA would be likely to regard that as price fixing
Base price wrote: » You are the only person that I know is in a producer group. I presume it works as follows - A number of farmers with simular type animals agree to join together to form a group in order to maximise their selling power. They make an arrangement (legal?) with a factory (one or more?) to supply a certain number of animals on a regular basis (weekly/fortnightly - for the year?) that fulfill a predetermined specification (weight/confirmation/fatscore etc) by the factory. Is the price per kg agreed prior to supply and does the price hold for the year presuming specifications are met. What happens if the group cannot supply the required number of animals. What happens if there is an over supply of animals in any particular week - i.e is there a reduction in the price per kg. Can members of the group sell to other factories that the group does not have an agreement with. I've more questions that I thought about during the day but I've forgotten them at the min.
wrangler wrote: » We agree the bonuses (and penalties) at the start of the year and the base price is based on the journal quotes each week, Each member tells them roughly how many we'll have each month but the numbers don't have to be that exact. Generally members sell all to the group, if they have inspec lambs they won't do any better anywhere else but if they're not inspec they won't do well, some people haven't time to weigh every week/ Factory take whatever we supply every week, lorries get a time slot of when to arrive and get priority in those time slots, very seldom they would get delayed. Our group is going since the late sixties and we have the same coordinator since then and he has a lot to do with the success of it IF there was a problem with price you'd only have to set up with it and try to tighten up next years agreement, members seem happy enough with the way we're treated
Bass Reeves wrote: » They have reason to be. Processors think that by reducing factory prices they can force store prices down. The only problem is that lads that are getting hit are finishers who have to go out and buy stores with less in there pocket. Most have struggled over the last few years to break even at finishing. It has becom too expensive. Risk are huge and lads have been well burnt paying for cattle and feed up front to find post Christmass factory's rushing to cut the price of finished beef. Lads then have to compete for expensive stores in spring to put to grass. As well by finishing over the winter you hit nitrates issues and this hits you ability to access envoirmental schemes The out look is too poor even without taking Brexit into account. Rations 20% motre expensive and going up in price silage and straw at record prices and forward stores are still too erxpensive. The lad finishing 20-100 are exiting and any dairy farmer that used to finish a few cattle is targeting any fodder on hand at his cows this year. With the price silage and maize silage is making most lads that finished cattle in the eastern part of the country are taking the money. Processors themselves buying cattle has runied finishers they use these to keep a lid on prices so as Willfarmer said in another thread there is no peaks and troughs to amke money. From around 2006-2014 I used to make a nice twist before and after Christmas. I used to finish 20-30 mostly friesian bulls killing 290-350 kgs. Used to buy at different stages. They left a nice margin. After the bull debacle a few years ago I exited that and then finished a few bullocks for a while. Now I have stopped that as well. Why would you put cattle into a shed with the risk's and costs involved.
Base price wrote: » So other than knowing what the bonuses and penalties are (+/- per kg) the producer group are taking the same price as everyone else? We have a good friend who is a beef farmer in Texas. He can forward sell a percentage of his cattle at a guaranteed price per lb to the factories. He can buy an additional insurance policy to cover a price shift. He can also forward purchase feed/minerals- maize, wheat, barley etc and he can also buy an insurance policy to cover any abrupt shift in price. Other than the use of hormones in the USA why can't we Irish follow a simular plan
