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beef price tracker

49801

any interest in having a factory beef price tracker on here?

got 4 hiefers to go, 3rs and 1o

got the following quotes for base price on Mon 23 Jan

4.10e/kg aibp bandon
4.15e/kg aibp cahir

quotes including bord bia
am holding tough as hoping for 4.25e/kg

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Danzy

riemann wrote: »

In the short-term the processors have decided well in advance what their prices will be. They are aware of the nos coming on stream because of the 30 month limit.

Expect a bottom out in the next few weeks, with a stabilisation and slight recovery as we approach the Christmas market.

Medium term I always look to the previous few years as a guide, barring a horse meat like scandal one can expect price trends to realise.

As regards Brexit I'd be very weary of anyone soliciting advice, it's unknown territory. On a personal level I can see a massive delay, maybe even a 2nd referendum. The Irish beef industry is in a perilous position should a worst case senario materialise, in reality I can't see that happenning as there is simply too much as steak if you will. For me it's not a time for taking massive risks or over stocking, I'll be observing from as far as possible. It doesn't help that these are the years the new CAP will be calculated on, but common sense must prevail.

I'm upping numbers by about a third this year. I was doing it anyway and had silage ground reserved accordingly in the Spring. Just to a more appropriate stocking level, having had the place over 2 years. It was cut before the drying really caught growth.

As for Brexit, if it is a WTO trade terms deal, the ultimate hard Brexit, then Cattle will be a disaster in a way that might be worse than the 30s. Beef from a bullock at 3.85 a KG would be about 7.20 euro with tariffs in Britain and that would be before any shop or man got his cut there.

It is so unworkable as to not be a concern for us. Like what you'll do the weekend after a nuclear war.

3 or 4 years down the line Brexit could be different and a big worry then.

Ultimately a deal will be done, the Eu, more so the Eurozone has fallen down badly as a project in 2 key areas, job and growth.

The Eurozone used to be roughly the same size as America's economy, it is now about 50% smaller.

They can no more afford to turn their back on one of the biggest economies in the World, than the Brits can turn their back on it.

patsy_mccabe

Would a Beef Future Pricing market put an end of all this madness? It seems to work well in the USA. Farmers could hedge against price fluctuations by buying futures.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/meats

Cavanjack

wrangler wrote: »

That's exactly the attitude I got from the meetings that I relayed Padraigs concerns to, with know alls telling me they had killed 450 +kg bulls that week etc. As you say profits from feeding bulls were unreal...a real pyramid scheme, there was only one way it was going to go....overdone
There's none so blind as those that don't want to see.

I killed a good few bulls in late spring greater than 470kg and got €4.15 a kg for them. A few were greater than 500kg and no word of over weight. One was 530kg and got cut 10cent on him. Fair enough. Killed more earlier on in the year with average weights of not much less than 450kg.
There was nothing to suggest that they did not want them or did not have a market for them, quite the opposite in fact. If they come along this coming spring and cut hell out of the same type stock withough good warning then this is surely unfair. It's wouldn't be a big job to send a mail to every supplier on their books 6 months before they start feeding cattle.

wrangler

Willfarman wrote: »

Padraig browne done no such flagging nor did teagasc.. and super shiney simon who was always excited about China and America and press release after press release of our entry into these markets.
was in a beef trading discussion group in 2013 and it was all Frisian bull and 1000eur gross margins.
Madness. But did we learn anything?
I’m not sure forward pricing would do much for my enterprise as it’s a trading system. I am reliant on dips and troughs in the market for a twist as only so much can be done on the production side.

Store price is everything to me and I often despise my competing buyers who don’t seem to care about a margin as much as I despise Larry. As I have said on this before. Buying from farmers to sell to Larry is a bad business model. I need my head examined!

That's exactly the attitude I got from the meetings that I relayed Padraigs concerns to, with know alls telling me they had killed 450 +kg bulls that week etc. As you say profits from feeding bulls were unreal...a real pyramid scheme, there was only one way it was going to go....overdone
There's none so blind as those that don't want to see.

blue5000

I think we all have to use our own judgement as to what cattle we want to buy and when we would 'like' to sell them at a 'profit/loss:eek:'.
The peaks are going to be small next year IMHO, If feed is tight, and let's face it lads, it's not plentiful, let the factories finish cattle for the first half of the year I think.

Willfarman

Padraig browne done no such flagging nor did teagasc.. and super shiney simon who was always excited about China and America and press release after press release of our entry into these markets.
was in a beef trading discussion group in 2013 and it was all Frisian bull and 1000eur gross margins.
Madness. But did we learn anything?
I’m not sure forward pricing would do much for my enterprise as it’s a trading system. I am reliant on dips and troughs in the market for a twist as only so much can be done on the production side.

Store price is everything to me and I often despise my competing buyers who don’t seem to care about a margin as much as I despise Larry. As I have said on this before. Buying from farmers to sell to Larry is a bad business model. I need my head examined!

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

No point most of us remember the bull debacle a few years ago after the horse meat scandal. Larry and Co bought loads of store HE bullocks in late August and Sept. They killed them before and after Christmas and backed up the Bulls. I remember being told that Autumn there be no issue with bulls under 24 months but not to let them go over the 24 months. We took 3.4/kg for R grade bulls. Winter finishing has never recovered from that lads took too much of a hit.

Until we have producer groups sanctioned in law and processors compelled to deal with producer groups there will never be forwarding pricing for ordinary farmers.

Padraig browne in Dunbia was flagging the problem with bulls for twelve mths before the whole thing blew up, he was telling us to talk to the processors before commiting to feeding bulls.....at the time bulls were a good trade and to be honest I was made little of when I flagged it at meetings.
Your last paragraph is unrealistic, to enforce a customer to buy your product whatever the quality wont happen. Get the quality right first and then try to sell it.
For a factory not to feed their own cattle to ensure supply would be the same as a good dairy farmer depending on buying in all their winter feed,...very foolish.

Bass Reeves

blue5000 wrote: »

Thanks Bass and Will for putting up the figures as they really are. Has anyone had the balls to ask their agent/procurement manager what Spring prices will be like? Or even after Brexit?

No point most of us remember the bull debacle a few years ago after the horse meat scandal. Larry and Co bought loads of store HE bullocks in late August and Sept. They killed them before and after Christmas and backed up the Bulls. I remember being told that Autumn there be no issue with bulls under 24 months but not to let them go over the 24 months. We took 3.4/kg for R grade bulls. Winter finishing has never recovered from that lads took too much of a hit.

Until we have producer groups sanctioned in law and processors compelled to deal with producer groups there will never be forwarding pricing for ordinary farmers.

kk.man

blue5000 wrote: »

Thanks Bass and Will for putting up the figures as they really are. Has anyone had the balls to ask their agent/procurement manager what Spring prices will be like? Or even after Brexit?

The agent/procurement manager doesn't know much and only follow instructions. They really would never give you a definite answer.
I've known alot of these for years and crystal ball forecasting is not their forte through no fault of their own.

morphy87

3 75 slaney

riemann

blue5000 wrote: »

Has anyone had the balls to ask their agent/procurement manager what Spring prices will be like? Or even after Brexit?

In the short-term the processors have decided well in advance what their prices will be. They are aware of the nos coming on stream because of the 30 month limit.

Expect a bottom out in the next few weeks, with a stabilisation and slight recovery as we approach the Christmas market.

Medium term I always look to the previous few years as a guide, barring a horse meat like scandal one can expect price trends to realise.

As regards Brexit I'd be very weary of anyone soliciting advice, it's unknown territory. On a personal level I can see a massive delay, maybe even a 2nd referendum. The Irish beef industry is in a perilous position should a worst case senario materialise, in reality I can't see that happenning as there is simply too much as steak if you will. For me it's not a time for taking massive risks or over stocking, I'll be observing from as far as possible. It doesn't help that these are the years the new CAP will be calculated on, but common sense must prevail.

charolais0153

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Just as a matter of interest looking at these two bunches of bulls what are they worth. The first lad has put weights up we assume he is totally correct. looking at the second lot I put a guess at 450kgs. WE will assume that R grade bulls make 4/kg after Christmas.

https://www.donedeal.ie/beefcattle-for-sale/124-feeding-bulls-14-18-months-450-550kgs/19864596

https://www.donedeal.ie/beefcattle-for-sale/cheap-feeding-bulls/19773205.

The first ones are accurate in weight anyways they have 60-70 kilos on them compared to the other lads.
First lads 1000
900 for the other lads.

Who2

blue5000 wrote: »

Thanks Bass and Will for putting up the figures as they really are. Has anyone had the balls to ask their agent/procurement manager what Spring prices will be like? Or even after Brexit?

Mine told me he’s optimistic for February on but reckons it’s to get worse from now to then

blue5000

Thanks Bass and Will for putting up the figures as they really are. Has anyone had the balls to ask their agent/procurement manager what Spring prices will be like? Or even after Brexit?

Bass Reeves

Just as a matter of interest looking at these two bunches of bulls what are they worth. The first lad has put weights up we assume he is totally correct. looking at the second lot I put a guess at 450kgs. WE will assume that R grade bulls make 4/kg after Christmas.

https://www.donedeal.ie/beefcattle-for-sale/124-feeding-bulls-14-18-months-450-550kgs/19864596

https://www.donedeal.ie/beefcattle-for-sale/cheap-feeding-bulls/19773205.

Bass Reeves

mf240 wrote: »

What do you think they will be like in March or April.

Stores will be dearer than now but I expect that they will not be on fire. Hearing of more lads that winter finish not doing it this year. Kill could stay well below 30K from after Christmas to June. If it dose beef prices will be higher than last spring. But even if 30c/kg high will the extra 100 euro cover the extra cost of ration and straw. As well silage being fed is valued at 35/bale. The lighter weigh and poorer grading of cattle that is killing lads at present just as much as the extra cost in the system.

Those Friesians I am killing will have eaten 40-50 ish euro of ration over last 7-9 weeks. The real killer was they were in the shed for 5 weeks longer in the spring that is another 35 euro in cost. Killing 20kgs lighter than normal and on the farm 20 days longer along with a lower grade is costing 150 euro on end price IMO. They are leaving a miniscule margin.

Like I said the killer is a similar store this year would only cost 450 euro maybe a tad less this would have softened the hit a bit.

mf240

What do you think they will be like in March or April.

Bass Reeves

Willfarman wrote: »

It seems to be a badly kept secret all right bass! 3.60 is what the bottom will be is the story being put out. I know it’s in line with previous years but it’s putting the carrot on a disastrous year for my summer grazing enterprise.

50 cattle bought 480kgs @960€; inc commission last oct. mix of fr aa and fair to good continentals. 7 month winter then after a good initial thrive complete stall and back to silage and meal feeding into a falling market. 40 gone to date and scarcely clearing €1400. averaging over half a tone of ration with 10 still eating 6 kgs a day and won’t be fit for a month.

We are all in the same boat. Was luck enough early in the year shifted cattle that left margin. But over last month cattle going out are leaving nothing.Bought light Friesians in the yard at 540 last August they are only averaging 1K exactly on the hook. More to go this week. Real killer is not being able to avail of cheaper stores because of fodder situation.

Willfarman

It seems to be a badly kept secret all right bass! 3.60 is what the bottom will be is the story being put out. I know it’s in line with previous years but it’s putting the carrot on a disastrous year for my summer grazing enterprise.

50 cattle bought 480kgs @960€; inc commission last oct. mix of fr aa and fair to good continentals. 7 month winter then after a good initial thrive complete stall and back to silage and meal feeding into a falling market. 40 gone to date and scarcely clearing €1400. averaging over half a tone of ration with 10 still eating 6 kgs a day and won’t be fit for a month.

Bass Reeves

Heard that the processors intend to pull prices by 10c/kg next week. Base price to be 3.65/3.70/kg depending on where in the country you are. Store prices are getting too strong again in there opinion and lads killing cattle at 2+/3- rather than winter finish or feed on these cattle.

Cavanjack

Any quotes for bullocks this week?

blue5000

CHOPS01 wrote: »

What do you reckon is the weight loss on cattle travelling/waiting lets say 8/9 hours longer?

Fat cover is what gets burnt off them when they're stressed.

Attie

Don't know if there are still "discussions" on hot and cold weight but used too be a regular occurrence.
Many animals were put back over the cold bridge so owner could verify the weight I presume it's still the case.
I'm talking about cattle here this is where the live bridge came into it's own once you know how well the animals are feed and live weight you can have a good stab at dead weight.

Bass Reeves

Attie wrote: »

T

Perhaps on welfare grounds.

Whenever Mr Goodman took over Newry first thing out the door was the live bridge.[/QUOTE]

Nothing to do with welfare. His opinion on it was cattle standing in a strange lairage lost weight. He said it cost him 1-2% on killout depending on how long they stood there. The processors charge you 2% between fresh and cold weight no point in giving them another 1-2%.

On the live weigh brdge you would expect that it would be a helpfull management tool for farmers. I weighed cattle now and again before slaughter on 1-2 places %'s will vary very little. But I slaughtered overage cattle a few ago a bit of a distance away, a few of the K/O %'s were all over the place with 1-2 completely ridicilous.

wrangler

Attie wrote: »

It's one great management tool.
Used properly it'll bring you eye in.

Definitely, everyone should have one at home, you don't be long finding out which factories have the severest trim etc. as you say it trains your eye as well...we'd always put our comment beside some lambs numbers when we're weighing and then see were we right when the grades come back.
But animals have to be fasted before weighing as well or else it means nothing.
Having a live scales at the factory would only be another excuse for complaint

Attie

wrangler wrote: »

Why would they want to weigh them live....only one scales that counts

It's one great management tool.
Used properly it'll bring you eye in.

coolshannagh28

wrangler wrote: »

That must be it so....yea right

You are less cynical than I thought .

wrangler

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Exactly , keep them in the dark....

That must be it so....yea right

coolshannagh28

wrangler wrote: »

I could imagine the rows that it'd cause

Exactly , keep them in the dark....

wrangler

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

The farmer that just puts them on the lorry has no idea of live weight so cant even guestimate K/O % or dead weight .
Its a highly prized skill on this forum estimating live weights back from dead weight , grades etc this is ridiculous in this day and age with a commodity valued at up to 2k per unit ?

I could imagine the rows that it'd cause....I know some get very upset when their lambs don't kill out well and they have a scales.
lambs can kill out between 40 and 50%, liveweight means nothing.
Some people weigh the tractor trailer on a local weighbridge on their way, but they really should have their own weigh cells. Farmers won't believe the factory live scales is right as usual so why have one