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Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

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Comments

  • #4082
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Still 21c in Waterford city.


  • #4083
    Franz Von Peppercorn
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Where’s that?

    Definitely not mayo, because mayo is no where near the driest or hottest county.


  • #4084
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,002 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    _Dara_ wrote: »

    One thing I’ve noted on the weather forum is that many here are married to stats without thinking about how they slot into the human experience. Very ‘computer says this’. It’s interesting to observe.

    Which why the hot, gloomy shite that was 2003 is frequently brought up as a great summer because the gloom was technically classed as hazy sunshine but was much more like cloud.

    'computer says this'... Err stats are our record of what happened in reality, of course there will be local variations, at times large ones, but that doesn't take away from the fact that these stats are our most accurate record of past weather.

    And for the record I remember 2003 as quite a nice summer at times, humid yes but my memory isn't of it being too gloomy - the point here being that memory is subjective and local variations play a bigger role at times.


  • #4085
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Probably because it's my obsession and thing I study on a daily basis.

    But as I said, stats can mask people’s actual experience of a season. How many days went well above the average, temperature-wise? Was that recorded sunny haze actually more like cloud? Was summer 1995 not that great because June wasn’t? What about the Indian summer that year?

    Personally, I believe no weather reportage or stats-collecting to be complete if not accompanied by wide and varied accounts by people on the ground. Laypeople. They’re not obsessing about stats but they know when they are experiencing something out of the ordinary. My granny had no knowledge of statistics, having only a primary school education, but kept detailed weather records. Are they worthless?

    Like the day I was lying in a hospital bed in January 2008 and it was sweltering in the ward. That day, parts of the country hit 18c. People notice things. And low 20s temperatures in summer are not out of the ordinary. Even in the sh1tty, sh1tty summer of 2012 when I got rained upon many, many times walking to and from work, there were days in between with temperatures that warm.


  • #4086
    sharper
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,216 ✭✭✭sharper


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Think we could do with a shower to cool things down,the heat seems to be getting to people

    Another month of this weather and counties will start to secede. Battles will be fought over who gets to control the Shannon and the NI border will be purely to hold back the barbarians.

    Has anyone noticed forecasted night time temperatures regularly miss the mark by a wide margin? Forecast says it should be 16 degrees in Kildare but met.ie reports 20. Netatmo map shows low 20s which is how it feels https://weathermap.netatmo.com/

    There's zero breeze so opening a window is a waste of time. This is the worst night in at least a week despite the daytime temperatures not being as high as seen previously.


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  • #4087
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,424 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Another uncomfortable night here in Cork.
    There's just no air or freshness now for like 3 weeks non stop!!
    Starting to wish the jetstream would come back


  • #4088
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,249 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Here is a historgram showing the most frequent max temp profiles in Claremorris, Co. Mayo, for all of the Julys up from 1950 up to last year:

    elT9g48.png

    While Xoini is correct in that mid- to high teens are the most frequently occurring July temp, temps in the low 20s, as Dara suggests, are not all that uncommon, though relatively infrequent compared to average.


    Data from Met Eireann.

    New Moon



  • #4089
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,100 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    _Dara_ wrote: »
    Personally, I believe no weather reportage or stats-collecting to be complete if not accompanied by wide and varied accounts by people on the ground. Laypeople. They’re not obsessing about stats but they know when they are experiencing something out of the ordinary.

    There will always be disadvantages with everything in life and stats are no different. I will take stats over human memories any day personally. But I agree with you on this point that I quoted above from your comment, a good weather history article to me contains some stats, some pics, some reports from people of their experience etc. The reports of people are especially important in scenarios of extreme events like say the North Sea surge of early 1953 or diary entries from history when stats weren't available.

    Anyway, I'm getting off topic here.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • #4090
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    'computer says this'... Err stats are our record of what happened in reality, of course there will be local variations, at times large ones, but that doesn't take away from the fact that these stats are our most accurate record of past weather.

    And for the record I remember 2003 as quite a nice summer at times, humid yes but my memory isn't of it being too gloomy - the point here being that memory is subjective and local variations play a bigger role at times.

    It was “quite nice” indeed. Warm. Quite nice is fairly lukewarm sentiment, don’t you think? It was at times pleasant. That’s the best I can grant it. I lived in the southern UK in summer 2010. So it was during the sh1tty string of summers that afflicted Ireland and the UK. But the weather almost reached 2003 standards. 23 or higher pretty much every day. Some cloud, some sun. And that was considered a pretty so-so to crappy summer there.

    As for the 2003 gloom, I used to be a member of a now-defunct weather forum where someone much more knowledgeable that me had the exact same problems with that season as I did. We bitched about it a lot.

    Not all memories are unreliable either. My folks were in the UK when the temperature record was broken. I very clearly remember how envious I was that they were basking in the sun whilst only over the pond in Dublin, we were experiencing the most oppressive conditions I’d ever encountered in Ireland, and which haven’t been topped since, not even on the grumpy rush hour bus I experienced in the dying days of the 2006 heatwave.


  • #4091
    Ultimate Seduction
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭Ultimate Seduction


    Nostalgia.. I'll believe stats before I believe my own memory.


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  • #4092
    ANDREWMUFC
    Closed Accounts Posts: 484 ✭✭ANDREWMUFC


    Bring back the snow and rain


  • #4093
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Here is a historgram showing the most frequent max temp profiles in Claremorris, Co. Mayo, for all of the Julys up from 1950 up to last year:

    elT9g48.png

    While Xoini is correct in that mid- to high teens are the most frequently occurring July temp, temps in the low 20s, as Dara suggests, are not all that uncommon, though relatively infrequent compared to average.


    Data from Met Eireann.

    Thank you, yes. It’s not going to be 20, 21, 22 every day. But those temperatures are frequent enough that nobody is going to really wonder at them.


  • #4094
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,249 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Will have to respectively disagree with Syran just a small bit here. While I think stats are very useful for putting past weather into some sort of context, they don't substitute for the real experience of it.


    For example, I recently looking at the temp stats for the east during the thundery spell of July 1985. They weren't that spectacular (high teens/low twenties) but reading the stories on the actual 1985 thread, many people described the air as being exceptionally 'heavy' and oppressive before the great event. Of course, the high humidity would have played a part in the 'feel' of temp, but the real experience in cases like this do, in my opinion, trump cold, hard stats.

    New Moon



  • #4095
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    Ultimate Seduction wrote: »
    Nostalgia.. I'll believe stats before I believe my own memory.

    Nostalgia, at least in the most commonly used sense, tends to refer to warm memories. Does it seem like all my recollections are doing that? People tend to remember things as better than they were. Some of my memories buck that trend.


  • #4096
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,100 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Will have to respectively disagree with Syran just a small bit here. While I think stats are very useful for putting past weather into some sort of context, they don't substitute for the real experience of it.


    For example, I recently looking at the temp stats for the east during the thundery spell of July 1985. They weren't that spectacular (high teens/low twenties) but reading the stories on the actual 1985 thread, many people described the air as being exceptionally 'heavy' and oppressive before the great event. Of course, the high humidity would have played a part in the 'feel' of temp, but the real experience in cases like this do, in my opinion, trump cold, hard stats.

    That's the same case with the North Sea surge of 1953 example I gave. Previous depressions of that Winter were even deeper than the one on 31 January/1 February 1953 but the one in question here gave higher mortality and bigger impacts because of other factors.

    Alls I said was I'll take stats over human memories any day personally - that's just a me thing. Stats have disagreed with my memories several times. I'm not to say that stats are better than human memories, just I take them personally over human memories.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • #4097
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Will have to respectively disagree with Syran just a small bit here. While I think stats are very useful for putting past weather into some sort of context, they don't substitute for the real experience of it.


    For example, I recently looking at the temp stats for the east during the thundery spell of July 1985. They weren't that spectacular (high teens/low twenties) but reading the stories on the actual 1985 thread, many people described the air as being exceptionally 'heavy' and oppressive before the great event. Of course, the high humidity would have played a part in the 'feel' of temp, but the real experience in cases like this do, in my opinion, trump cold, hard stats.

    I could cry. I was expecting an uphill battle on this point from all corners. I know you might not be fully agreeing with me but it’s nice that somebody kinda gets what I’m trying to say here.


  • #4098
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,249 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    _Dara_ wrote: »
    Thank you, yes. It’s not going to be 20, 21, 22 every day. But those temperatures are frequent enough that nobody is going to really wonder at them.

    Claremorris is the nearest station to me (though still too far away to be all that representative) so going from my own stats, temps into the high teens, very low twenties would seem to be the most common maxes (I don't have a long term record like Claremorris) Having said that, I would consider temps over 23c to be the exception rather than the rule, though admittedly, this summer so far, the opposite is true!

    New Moon



  • #4099
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,556 ✭✭✭pauldry


    In the long line of Irish Summers this year is exceptional.

    Since May 1st how many wet days have there been 3? 4?
    How many days has there been over 7mm of rain in Dublin 2? 3?
    How many washouts in West or misty days or drizzly days?
    4 or 5?
    No other Summer since 1976 has these stats...so far. Only 50 days of this left 😀


  • #4100
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,876 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note: _Dara_ et al. Can we now move on from this as it has been more then discussed enough and is dragging the thread off topic.

    Lets keep it civil please.


  • #4101
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,370 ✭✭✭pad199207


    I do have to agree with Dara though.... :o


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  • #4102
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Casement still 20.4 at 11 pm. The only station above 20.0


  • #4103
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Claremorris is the nearest station to me (though still too far away to be all that representative) so going from my own stats, temps into the high teens, very low twenties would seem to be the most common maxes (I don't have a long term record like Claremorris) Having said that, I would consider temps over 23c to be the exception rather than the rule, though admittedly, this summer so far, the opposite is true!

    Yes, over 23 is getting into notable territory. Sure, a lot of summer 1995 wouldn’t have breached 25 degrees and that was notable weather, and it being prolonged was especially unusual. To me 20-22c is very different from 23c+. You go from pleaaant enough to warm.


  • #4104
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    Is it correct that the Dublin area hasn’t seen rain since the end of April? I was amazed at how green the grass was down west this weekend, whilst my apartment complex grass in Dublin is scorched.


  • #4105
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,100 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    _Dara_ wrote: »
    Is it correct that the Dublin area hasn’t seen rain since the end of April? I was amazed at how green the grass was down west this weekend, whilst my apartment complex grass in Dublin is scorched.

    I posted Dublin Airport rainfall stats very recently in the drought thread, see the links below.

    The last time Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall with 4mm or more was April 24th. The last time Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall with 3mm or more was May 27th.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107459386&postcount=299
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107457330&postcount=285

    EDIT: Thanks MJohnston.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • #4106
    MJohnston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,747 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    _Dara_ wrote: »
    Is it correct that the Dublin area hasn’t seen rain since the end of April? I was amazed at how green the grass was down west this weekend, whilst my apartment complex grass in Dublin is scorched.


    Dublin rainfall graph from a post by syranbruen:


    UtAU4Tz.png


  • #4107
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,249 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    _Dara_ wrote: »
    Yes, over 23 is getting into notable territory. Sure, a lot of summer 1995 wouldn’t have breached 25 degrees and that was notable weather, and it being prolonged was especially unusual. To me 20-22c is very different from 23c+. You go from pleaaant enough to warm.

    Maybe it is to do with Viking blood or something, but anything over 19-20c becomes a little too much for me, especially it if is experienced over long periods.

    New Moon



  • #4108
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I posted Dublin Airport rainfall stats very recently in the drought thread, see the links below.

    The last time Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall with 4mm or more was April 24th. The last time Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall with 3mm or more was May 27th.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107459386&postcount=299
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107457330&postcount=285

    EDIT: Thanks MJohnston.

    Thanks, I knew I had saw that here, couldn’t think where. It makes sense, when you look at the grass.


  • #4109
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    Today was stifling hot in Clondalkin. Airless. I went to Bray in the late afternoon as it was much cooler and fresher last week. It was a little better but so humid and some sort of haze or mist over the water making visibility out to sea poor enough. Away from the seafront even just a little bit up the base of Bray Head was really sticky. A horrible day all round. And still way too warm now back in Clondalkin.

    The state of the grassy area along Bray prom is shocking. Even in the space of a week since my last visit it has deteriorated hugely. Crazy to think you'd ever miss the sight of green grass in Ireland. God help the cattle!


  • #4110
    Calibos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Shepard Wailing Tentacle wrote: »
    Today was stifling hot in Clondalkin. Airless. I went to Bray in the late afternoon as it was much cooler and fresher last week. It was a little better but so humid and some sort of haze or mist over the water making visibility out to sea poor enough. Away from the seafront even just a little bit up the base of Bray Head was really sticky. A horrible day all round. And still way too warm now back in Clondalkin.

    The state of the grassy area along Bray prom is shocking. Even in the space of a week since my last visit it has deteriorated hugely. Crazy to think you'd ever miss the sight of green grass in Ireland. God help the cattle!

    I'm one road back from the seafront and today felt the hottest and muggiest of the Summer so far. I installed a Hive Smart Central Heating system about a month ago and have been logging in to check the house temperatures every night and tonight is the hottest so far with 27º in the Attic bedroom where I am and 24.5º upstairs and 23.5º downstairs. My bedside fan isn't going to help me tonight methinks. If this is what the rest of ye inland have been dealing with for the last few weeks then God Love Ye! I've been saying to people that I am glad parts of the country hit 30º this Summer just because it meant we weren't the poor relation of the UK Summer weatherwise this year but at the same time I neither wanted 30º temps in my neck of the woods nor envied those that had it. Even more appreciative of the cooling sea breezes we had in Bray up to now making the temps bearable.

    As for the grass on the promenade. Mad isn't it! Yellow now and starting to turn to dust with all the foot traffic!


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  • #4111
    BliainanAir
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 145 ✭✭BliainanAir


    https://www.farmersjournal.ie/ken-rings-irish-weather-forecast-for-2018-334283

    Ken Ring was a bit out with the snow in June but no doubt he won't mention that but emphasise how he got the end of June and start of July right. Some charlatan.


This discussion has been closed.
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