Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

pad199207

_Dara_ wrote: »

Lads, ye’re such a clique. It’s very childish and unbecoming. I guess that why some of you feel cocky enough to give out mod instructions on thread.

Whatever, you make yourselves look bad. Willingly apparently. Give someone enough rope...

Oh and I come from a county that frequently posts the highest temperatures. And live in one of the driest places in the country.

Where’s that?

Xenji

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Histogram coming up. :cool:

For Claremorris from 2010-2017 I think the average mean summer temperature for those 8 years is 18.1C.

_Dara_

Xenji wrote: »

Your memory must be a bit fuzzy if you think those tempratures are really common and come with regularity, since 2010 and with the exception of this year and 2013 mean summer tempratures in Mayo average between 17C-18C.

Not at all. Nothing wrong with my memory. I said it wasn’t all the time but those temperatures are hit regularly enough as to be unremarkable. If you get 20 days in the summer hitting those temperatures, you won’t bat an eyelid at them. Hell, even fifteen days.

One thing I’ve noted on the weather forum is that many here are married to stats without thinking about how they slot into the human experience. Very ‘computer says this’. It’s interesting to observe.

Which why the hot, gloomy shite that was 2003 is frequently brought up as a great summer because the gloom was technically classed as hazy sunshine but was much more like cloud.

giveitholly

Think we could do with a shower to cool things down,the heat seems to be getting to people

sryanbruen

_Dara_ wrote: »

One thing I’ve noted on the weather forum is that many here are married to stats without thinking about how they slot into the human experience.

Probably because it's my obsession and thing I study on a daily basis.

mg1982

giveitholly wrote: »

Think we could do with a shower to cool things down,the heat seems to be getting to people

I agree wheres the jet stream when you need it.:D

Speak Now

Still 21c in Waterford city.

Franz Von Peppercorn

pad199207 wrote: »

Where’s that?

Definitely not mayo, because mayo is no where near the driest or hottest county.

BLIZZARD7

_Dara_ wrote: »

One thing I’ve noted on the weather forum is that many here are married to stats without thinking about how they slot into the human experience. Very ‘computer says this’. It’s interesting to observe.

Which why the hot, gloomy shite that was 2003 is frequently brought up as a great summer because the gloom was technically classed as hazy sunshine but was much more like cloud.

'computer says this'... Err stats are our record of what happened in reality, of course there will be local variations, at times large ones, but that doesn't take away from the fact that these stats are our most accurate record of past weather.

And for the record I remember 2003 as quite a nice summer at times, humid yes but my memory isn't of it being too gloomy - the point here being that memory is subjective and local variations play a bigger role at times.

_Dara_

sryanbruen wrote: »

Probably because it's my obsession and thing I study on a daily basis.

But as I said, stats can mask people’s actual experience of a season. How many days went well above the average, temperature-wise? Was that recorded sunny haze actually more like cloud? Was summer 1995 not that great because June wasn’t? What about the Indian summer that year?

Personally, I believe no weather reportage or stats-collecting to be complete if not accompanied by wide and varied accounts by people on the ground. Laypeople. They’re not obsessing about stats but they know when they are experiencing something out of the ordinary. My granny had no knowledge of statistics, having only a primary school education, but kept detailed weather records. Are they worthless?

Like the day I was lying in a hospital bed in January 2008 and it was sweltering in the ward. That day, parts of the country hit 18c. People notice things. And low 20s temperatures in summer are not out of the ordinary. Even in the sh1tty, sh1tty summer of 2012 when I got rained upon many, many times walking to and from work, there were days in between with temperatures that warm.

sharper

giveitholly wrote: »

Think we could do with a shower to cool things down,the heat seems to be getting to people

Another month of this weather and counties will start to secede. Battles will be fought over who gets to control the Shannon and the NI border will be purely to hold back the barbarians.

Has anyone noticed forecasted night time temperatures regularly miss the mark by a wide margin? Forecast says it should be 16 degrees in Kildare but met.ie reports 20. Netatmo map shows low 20s which is how it feels https://weathermap.netatmo.com/

There's zero breeze so opening a window is a waste of time. This is the worst night in at least a week despite the daytime temperatures not being as high as seen previously.

JanuarySnowstor

Another uncomfortable night here in Cork.
There's just no air or freshness now for like 3 weeks non stop!!
Starting to wish the jetstream would come back

Oneiric 3

Here is a historgram showing the most frequent max temp profiles in Claremorris, Co. Mayo, for all of the Julys up from 1950 up to last year:



While Xoini is correct in that mid- to high teens are the most frequently occurring July temp, temps in the low 20s, as Dara suggests, are not all that uncommon, though relatively infrequent compared to average.


Data from Met Eireann.

sryanbruen

_Dara_ wrote: »

Personally, I believe no weather reportage or stats-collecting to be complete if not accompanied by wide and varied accounts by people on the ground. Laypeople. They’re not obsessing about stats but they know when they are experiencing something out of the ordinary.

There will always be disadvantages with everything in life and stats are no different. I will take stats over human memories any day personally. But I agree with you on this point that I quoted above from your comment, a good weather history article to me contains some stats, some pics, some reports from people of their experience etc. The reports of people are especially important in scenarios of extreme events like say the North Sea surge of early 1953 or diary entries from history when stats weren't available.

Anyway, I'm getting off topic here.

_Dara_

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

'computer says this'... Err stats are our record of what happened in reality, of course there will be local variations, at times large ones, but that doesn't take away from the fact that these stats are our most accurate record of past weather.

And for the record I remember 2003 as quite a nice summer at times, humid yes but my memory isn't of it being too gloomy - the point here being that memory is subjective and local variations play a bigger role at times.

It was “quite nice” indeed. Warm. Quite nice is fairly lukewarm sentiment, don’t you think? It was at times pleasant. That’s the best I can grant it. I lived in the southern UK in summer 2010. So it was during the sh1tty string of summers that afflicted Ireland and the UK. But the weather almost reached 2003 standards. 23 or higher pretty much every day. Some cloud, some sun. And that was considered a pretty so-so to crappy summer there.

As for the 2003 gloom, I used to be a member of a now-defunct weather forum where someone much more knowledgeable that me had the exact same problems with that season as I did. We bitched about it a lot.

Not all memories are unreliable either. My folks were in the UK when the temperature record was broken. I very clearly remember how envious I was that they were basking in the sun whilst only over the pond in Dublin, we were experiencing the most oppressive conditions I’d ever encountered in Ireland, and which haven’t been topped since, not even on the grumpy rush hour bus I experienced in the dying days of the 2006 heatwave.

Ultimate Seduction

Nostalgia.. I'll believe stats before I believe my own memory.

ANDREWMUFC

Bring back the snow and rain

_Dara_

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Here is a historgram showing the most frequent max temp profiles in Claremorris, Co. Mayo, for all of the Julys up from 1950 up to last year:



While Xoini is correct in that mid- to high teens are the most frequently occurring July temp, temps in the low 20s, as Dara suggests, are not all that uncommon, though relatively infrequent compared to average.


Data from Met Eireann.

Thank you, yes. It’s not going to be 20, 21, 22 every day. But those temperatures are frequent enough that nobody is going to really wonder at them.

Oneiric 3

Will have to respectively disagree with Syran just a small bit here. While I think stats are very useful for putting past weather into some sort of context, they don't substitute for the real experience of it.


For example, I recently looking at the temp stats for the east during the thundery spell of July 1985. They weren't that spectacular (high teens/low twenties) but reading the stories on the actual 1985 thread, many people described the air as being exceptionally 'heavy' and oppressive before the great event. Of course, the high humidity would have played a part in the 'feel' of temp, but the real experience in cases like this do, in my opinion, trump cold, hard stats.

_Dara_

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Nostalgia.. I'll believe stats before I believe my own memory.

Nostalgia, at least in the most commonly used sense, tends to refer to warm memories. Does it seem like all my recollections are doing that? People tend to remember things as better than they were. Some of my memories buck that trend.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Will have to respectively disagree with Syran just a small bit here. While I think stats are very useful for putting past weather into some sort of context, they don't substitute for the real experience of it.


For example, I recently looking at the temp stats for the east during the thundery spell of July 1985. They weren't that spectacular (high teens/low twenties) but reading the stories on the actual 1985 thread, many people described the air as being exceptionally 'heavy' and oppressive before the great event. Of course, the high humidity would have played a part in the 'feel' of temp, but the real experience in cases like this do, in my opinion, trump cold, hard stats.

That's the same case with the North Sea surge of 1953 example I gave. Previous depressions of that Winter were even deeper than the one on 31 January/1 February 1953 but the one in question here gave higher mortality and bigger impacts because of other factors.

Alls I said was I'll take stats over human memories any day personally - that's just a me thing. Stats have disagreed with my memories several times. I'm not to say that stats are better than human memories, just I take them personally over human memories.

_Dara_

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Will have to respectively disagree with Syran just a small bit here. While I think stats are very useful for putting past weather into some sort of context, they don't substitute for the real experience of it.


For example, I recently looking at the temp stats for the east during the thundery spell of July 1985. They weren't that spectacular (high teens/low twenties) but reading the stories on the actual 1985 thread, many people described the air as being exceptionally 'heavy' and oppressive before the great event. Of course, the high humidity would have played a part in the 'feel' of temp, but the real experience in cases like this do, in my opinion, trump cold, hard stats.

I could cry. I was expecting an uphill battle on this point from all corners. I know you might not be fully agreeing with me but it’s nice that somebody kinda gets what I’m trying to say here.

Oneiric 3

_Dara_ wrote: »

Thank you, yes. It’s not going to be 20, 21, 22 every day. But those temperatures are frequent enough that nobody is going to really wonder at them.

Claremorris is the nearest station to me (though still too far away to be all that representative) so going from my own stats, temps into the high teens, very low twenties would seem to be the most common maxes (I don't have a long term record like Claremorris) Having said that, I would consider temps over 23c to be the exception rather than the rule, though admittedly, this summer so far, the opposite is true!

pauldry

In the long line of Irish Summers this year is exceptional.

Since May 1st how many wet days have there been 3? 4?
How many days has there been over 7mm of rain in Dublin 2? 3?
How many washouts in West or misty days or drizzly days?
4 or 5?
No other Summer since 1976 has these stats...so far. Only 50 days of this left 😀

Meteorite58

Mod Note: _Dara_ et al. Can we now move on from this as it has been more then discussed enough and is dragging the thread off topic.

Lets keep it civil please.

pad199207

I do have to agree with Dara though....

Gaoth Laidir

Casement still 20.4 at 11 pm. The only station above 20.0

_Dara_

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Claremorris is the nearest station to me (though still too far away to be all that representative) so going from my own stats, temps into the high teens, very low twenties would seem to be the most common maxes (I don't have a long term record like Claremorris) Having said that, I would consider temps over 23c to be the exception rather than the rule, though admittedly, this summer so far, the opposite is true!

Yes, over 23 is getting into notable territory. Sure, a lot of summer 1995 wouldn’t have breached 25 degrees and that was notable weather, and it being prolonged was especially unusual. To me 20-22c is very different from 23c+. You go from pleaaant enough to warm.

_Dara_

Is it correct that the Dublin area hasn’t seen rain since the end of April? I was amazed at how green the grass was down west this weekend, whilst my apartment complex grass in Dublin is scorched.

sryanbruen

_Dara_ wrote: »

Is it correct that the Dublin area hasn’t seen rain since the end of April? I was amazed at how green the grass was down west this weekend, whilst my apartment complex grass in Dublin is scorched.

I posted Dublin Airport rainfall stats very recently in the drought thread, see the links below.

The last time Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall with 4mm or more was April 24th. The last time Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall with 3mm or more was May 27th.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107459386&postcount=299
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107457330&postcount=285

EDIT: Thanks MJohnston.