Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

Kermit.de.frog

There are some bullish indications that the warm, dry and mostly sunny weather will be returning from Friday. Later in the weekend and for the early days of next week, depending on how the high pressure orientates itself, we could be seeing temperatures getting well up to the mid to high twenties away from windward coasts.

Just to note in advance one other outcome is that high pressure retrogresses in to the Atlantic or toward Greenland leaving us in a cool northerly flow. This is not a likely outcome based on the models at the moment. Favored is the very warm or hot route with high pressure stationed near or over Ireland and increasingly continental type flow.

The potential for high temperatures is one thing but the real story here could could be the very dry or even drought like conditions in the east and south which have not seen appreciable amounts of rain now for some months.

The normal pattern after high pressure is positioned over us for a few days is to see high pressure fall away southeast allowing low pressure and increasing humdity from Biscay to move up from south, this brings even hotter air but potentially very unstable and we may get thunderstorms at that stage.




Again on the UKMO we see high pressure building toward the country from the southwest and the Atlantic fronts pushed well to the northwest. (not to say there won't be cloud at this stage, there will still be some mostly morning gloom but should be burning off quickly)



If temperature records are to be tested it is the right time of year and it looks tentatively on the cards if we get any kind of continental influence.

To recap temperatures rising from Friday with increasing amounts of sunshine. No appreciable rain in the east and south in the meantime. (Some heavy rain in the northern half of the country tomorrow) One fly in the ointment is that for the far north and northwest this process takes a little longer so add a couple of days to clear Atlantic dross here.

It should also become increasingly uncomfortable though next week for sleeping conditions at night.

Potential hazards (next week):

High Temperature

Clonmel1000

How long could this last Kermit?

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

How long could this last Kermit?

Let's get the pattern going before we worry about when it's going to end. Nobody knows.

The CFSv2 weekly anomalies show high pressure over top of Ireland all the way through its latest run which goes out to the 15th July. Whilst this like any other model is open to change quickly, it has been very bullish of this for weeks now and I remember at the start of May that it was showing a classic May with lots of high pressure influences. I posted about this in the FI Charts for Spring 2018 thread. It was certainly right then, let's hope it's right again. Throughout the run, it also shows significantly drier and warmer than conditions for the entirety of Ireland.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z seems to be an upgrade so far from its 0z and 06z runs. Less influence from the jet stream and high pressure more centred over the country. Sunday 24th for comparison on each of the runs.

0z



06z



12z

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

How long could this last Kermit?

Is hard to tell, the last event nearly ended a few times but powered on.

sryanbruen

UKMO is back in line with what the other models were showing. Classic high over top of us! A plus is cold air being sent to Iberia on this UKMO run which could in turn send the heat up to us.



The ICON performed very well with the Beast From the East so let's see if it will this time. Similar in line with other models, warm and dry.

BLIZZARD7

A warm to toasty run from the GEM also, still waiting on the ECM to appear.

giveitholly

And to think some people were throwing the toys out of the pram a few days ago saying summer was over

JCX BXC

Not a bad GFS run either, wants to bring the wet back in towards the end of the run but that's typical GFS

Gonzo

I would love to see Ireland's temperature record being beaten at some stage during my lifetime, preferably this summer, to see somewhere reach 34C would be great.

I am hoping for proper warmth this time around with the Irish Sea having much less of an impact on temperatures.

Artane2002

Good news... the ECM agrees with the other models. The potential for a heatwave is there but we can't be sure yet.

Artane2002

Artane2002 wrote: »

Good news... the ECM agrees with the other models. The potential for a heatwave is there but we can't be sure yet.

To add onto that, it is showing 30c in Kildare on the 28th of June at 1pm. Could get even higher at 3-4pm. Again, don't get overly excited just yet because it is too far out. (If that were to verify I would say 30c would be a bit more widespread than what the ECM is showing)

sryanbruen

Yep, another ECM run to bank. Definitive heatwave conditions. Has a 1976 look to it. 1976 holds Ireland's second highest temperature on record, 32.3c.

These have to be the most summery charts I've seen in my model watching years (I wasn't here for July 2013).

Kermit.de.frog

Yep, on track for now.

sdanseo

Whatever about June, I'm going all in. The 33.3C record will be broken somewhere in Ireland between now and the end of July.

It's been a year for it. Record wind, record snow (not all time records but damn close on both accounts) - why not record heat too.

The really interesting question is what happens next. Does the recent change toward more extreme weather keep growing? Does it speed up? Or does everything go back to boring normal after the summer?

Mutant z

Its not the heat that bothers me but the intense humidity we had i like dry sunny weather without the uncomfortable humidity that makes it harder to sleep during the night.

Mooooo

Didn't think I'd be saying this a month ago but could really do with a blast of rain before this comes in. As much as we complain about it, it's rain that is the reason our grass grows as much as it does!

sryanbruen

ECM is not a mild outlier in its ensembles either! Excellent ensemble mean.

sdanseo

Mooooo wrote: »

Didn't think I'd be saying this a month ago but could really do with a blast of rain before this comes in. As much as we complain about it, it's rain that is the reason our grass grows as much as it does!

Agreed, water supplies are under enough pressure as they need as well at the moment. Noticeable brown patches on a lot of grass verges too.

Artane2002

It's been over 3 weeks since I've seen rain making the ground wet. That's how dry it's been here in D5.

sryanbruen

In some ways, the wet year of 2017-18 (June to April) was needed or else we'd be in severe drought conditions. From July 2016 to May 2017, the large majority of the months were very dry with a notable absence of rain particularly from October 2016 to January 2017. This combined with May and June 2018 would make for some very bad drought conditions like the 1974-76 drought so we're kinda lucky it went that way this time. We would need a long run of below average rainfall months again to be on par with that drought. I think this is Mother Nature's balancing act with the exceptionally wet Winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16 (also 2014-15 to some extent in the northwest). A Summer drought has been a long time coming.

Meteorite58

Great to see a buzz about the increasingly possible warm or dare I say hot spell coming up from the weekend into next week. Similar type set up to a couple of weeks ago with very warm continental air moving up over the country and with the area of LP off Portugal /Spain the body of air is bound to be humid . The position of that area of LP will determine rain bands . Will we see another big thunderstorm event ? Im thinking possible. A very interesting spell of weather to observe and learn from. As sryanbruen said 2018 really is shaping up to be a memorable year weather wise.

This is still a long way off normally confined to the FI thread but it has been trending this way for a couple of days, may change , but just to show the potential.

jArgHA

Thanks for all the model interpretations folks, can someone tell me technically how can one define a spell of hot weather as a 'heatwave'. I'm sure the tabloids will all be on board in the next day or two but I was just curious when can one officially declare there is indeed a heatwave in progress.

Pa ElGrande

I could do with some thunder showers at this stage to keep my garden plants alive, most of the garden is half dead already and I'm recycling the water from the shower to keep my tomato plants going.

Definitely should be a wise move to limit consumption of water in the east of the country given that outlook.

Meteorite58

jArgHA wrote: »

Thanks for all the model interpretations folks, can someone tell me technically how can one define a spell of hot weather as a 'heatwave'. I'm sure the tabloids will all be on board in the next day or two but I was just curious when can one officially declare there is indeed a heatwave in progress.

Met Office

What is a heatwave?
A heatwave refers to a prolonged period of hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity. We currently use the World Meteorological Organization guidelines, which is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C, the normal period being 1961-1990". They are common in the northern and southern hemisphere during summer, but classification and impacts vary globally.

sryanbruen

jArgHA wrote: »

Thanks for all the model interpretations folks, can someone tell me technically how can one define a spell of hot weather as a 'heatwave'. I'm sure the tabloids will all be on board in the next day or two but I was just curious when can one officially declare there is indeed a heatwave in progress.

The Weather Meteorological Organization defines a heatwave as 5 or more consecutive days with temperatures at least +5c above average. However, the Met Éireann definition (which I go by when I'm doing stats) is for 5 or more consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 25c. Previous heatwaves in Ireland have occurred in 2017, 2013, 2006, 1995, 1989, 1983, 1976, 1975, 1972, 1955 and 1947. There are more years where it has done so but these are all the main ones that come to mind (bar 1972 which is a very odd one).

EDIT: Meteorite58 answered in regards to the WMO definition!

Harry Palmr

I work in horticulture and this topic came up again in conversation today, I'm in East Waterford where it's already verging on drought conditions for growing purposes. The summer of 2016 was dry here as was the autumn. It feels like we're heading for a replay of that.

On another note, looking at the records, it's striking how we now get rain in bursts . The Ireland of soft days is with O'Leary in the grave.

worded

Body and soul on this weekend. Could be a sizzler

Bonzo Delaney

Any indication on the water levels at Poulaphucha reservoir
They'll surely start reducing water pressure shortly in a few days with a prolonged spell forcast to conserve supplies

Agent_47

Mooooo wrote: »

Didn't think I'd be saying this a month ago but could really do with a blast of rain before this comes in. As much as we complain about it, it's rain that is the reason our grass grows as much as it does!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooo!

Winter was long enough, there will be rain soon enough

JCX BXC

Well aren't we all being quite bullish this evening!

Looks hot following a warning trend, is it record breaking hot, remains well to be seen.

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

Well aren't we all being quite bullish this evening!

Looks hot following a warning trend, is it record breaking hot, remains well to be seen.

I'm just waiting for the dreaded downgrades and then everything goes kerpow in here as they do. :rolleyes:

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'm just waiting for the dreaded downgrades and then everything goes kerpow in here as they do. :rolleyes:

Nice reverse psychology :pac:

sryanbruen

I thought it'd be fun here to look at the driest Junes on record at Cork Airport and Dublin Airport because both stations' totals for June 2018 are running well below average with 8.3 and 4.5mm respectively.

Dublin Airport's driest Junes on record (records go back to 1941). So June 2018 currently ranks as the second driest June on record here.

Rank|Year|Rainfall total (mm)
1.|1942|4.0
2.|1967|11.4
3.|1995|11.6
4.|2015|14.1
5.|1975|14.9
6.|1973|20.2
7.|1996|20.8
8.|1994|21.2
9.|1949|22.3
10.|1976|22.5


Cork Airport's driest Junes on record (records go back to 1962). June 2018 currently ranks as the driest June on record here, following its second wettest April on record.

Rank|Year|Rainfall total (mm)
1.|2006|14.6
2.|1975|20.2
3.|1974/1995|21.3
4.|1973|25.1
5.|1992|26.4
6.|1972|34.2
7.|1999|35.4
8.|1967|35.9
9.|1977|36.4
10.|1994|45.9


Data comes from Met Éireann.

SleetAndSnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

I thought it'd be fun here to look at the driest Junes on record at Cork Airport and Dublin Airport because both stations' totals for June 2018 are running well below average with 8.3 and 4.5mm respectively.

Dublin Airport's driest Junes on record (records go back to 1941). So June 2018 currently ranks as the second driest June on record here.

Cork Airport's driest Junes on record (records go back to 1962). June 2018 currently ranks as the driest June on record here, following its second wettest April on record.

Data comes from Met Éireann.

Definitely noticing that dryness. While I haven't seen any grass go a browny colour yet (its a lighter shade of green definitely), the earth is starting to break away from the concrete and is shrinking as its dry. Very interesting to see!

sryanbruen

Looks like a sensational Pub Run for the third consecutive time.

kod87

anything over 22/23 degrees is physically painful for me, so hopefully not too hot. I would like to be able to move about and function

Oneiric 3

Heatwaves aren't only defined by maximum temps, but also by the minima.

Thankfully, the days will be getting shorter from next week onwards. Won't be all that noticeable for another good month or so, but every second counts.


Tick tock.. tick tock.. tick..

mg1982

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Heatwaves aren't only defined by maximum temps, but also by the minima.

Thankfully, the days will be getting shorter from next week onwards. Won't be all that noticeable for another good month or so, but every second counts.


Tick tock.. tick tock.. tick..

You must be a winter person its too early to be talking about shorter days for a few months yet. Those high temps are looking uncomfortable im just hoping the humidity wont be as bad this time. Once it goes above 23 or 24 i struggle to function.

Donegal Storm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Definitely noticing that dryness. While I haven't seen any grass go a browny colour yet (its a lighter shade of green definitely), the earth is starting to break away from the concrete and is shrinking as its dry. Very interesting to see!

Definitely noticeable around here in Kildare, grass around trees, near kerbs, manholes etc is all yellow and anywhere in direct sunlight is a lighter shade of green than usual. We've had quite a few light showers this week which should help slightly but not had any notable rain for a month now.

Charts are fairly spectacular at the moment as well with no real rain in sight after tomorrow night, could be a long hot summer ahead if high pressure keeps reloading but lets not jinx it

squarecircles

add 2 or 3 degrees to these maximums if this were to come off,west coast on fire and on par with southern England if not hotter and mainland Europe.

km79

I’m going on 2 weeks holiday Sunday
Dear god WHY

pc7

km79 wrote: »

I’m going on 2 weeks holiday Sunday
Dear god WHY

Yes but in Spain you'll have a nice pool and beach to enjoy, no work, it'll be great.

jr86

Wow I know its early days and all that - and not to jinx it (!) - but could we be even looking at surpassing 2013 overall?

Could be heading for the best summer since 95

SweetCaliber

kod87 wrote: »

anything over 22/23 degrees is physically painful for me, so hopefully not too hot. I would like to be able to move about and function

Im only back from lisbon where the temperature reached 37 degrees celcius yesturday. It was unbearable to say the least.

Gonzo

Have we ever had a red alert issued for a heat warning in this country?

Met Eireann would issue a red heat warning if:

Maxima in excess of 30C or minima in excess of 20C expected and persisting for two or more consecutive nights.

I am sure we meet that criteria back in 1995, but not sure we have had that since.

I would really be excited if we finally see the all time temperature record of 33.3C being comfortably beaten this summer. A 34C somewhere would be great, or even a 35. Are those sort of temperatures even possible in this country?

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

Have we ever had a red alert issued for a heat warning in this country?

Met Eireann would issue a red heat warning if:

Maxima in excess of 30C or minima in excess of 20C expected and persisting for two or more consecutive nights.

I am sure we meet that criteria back in 1995, but not sure we have had that since.

I would really be excited if we finally see the all time temperature record of 33.3C being comfortably beaten this summer. A 34C somewhere would be great, or even a 35. Are those sort of temperatures even possible in this country?

It's certainly possible, especially with the dried up ground. The highest temperatures here tend to come after days of very dry conditions and the sun being abundant, as such happened in June 1887 and June 1976. 2006's highest temperature of 32.3c was recorded on 19th July, around the middle of the Summer following the driest June since 1995 and the driest start to July for some since 1982. This can also translate to some cold conditions at night though as like a desert climate. For example, the start of August 1976 brought a frost with grass temperatures getting below freezing and the same happened in July 2006 before 32.3c was recorded with a grass minimum of -1.3c at Birr on the 13th. In basic summary, it's very possible but extremely difficult and going by historical occurrences here, we need certain paremeters to be set before hand and then get the heat in.

30c has not been achieved in June for 23 years now.

Here's the charts of Ireland's hottest days on record to compare.

19th July 2006



14th July 1983



29th June 1976



26th June 1887

pad199207

Minima in excess of 20c would be stunning to experience in this country!

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

Minima in excess of 20c would be stunning to experience in this country!

I reckon the minima in excess of 20C would be even more difficult to achieve than a few locations hitting 30C+, especially with sea breezes keeping things much cooler near the coast.

If the temperature record is going to be beaten this summer, I think we would need another heatwave later in the season, a perfect 7day+ heatwave with the perfect fetch of heat, very little wind and minimal sea effect cooling.

Next week's spell is probably still too early in the season to smash the all time temperature heat record. Maybe a 30C in the midwest, is probably the best we can hope for in June.

JCX BXC

pad199207 wrote: »

Minima in excess of 20c would be stunning to experience in this country!

Stunning, or painful?

Had a few nights where it failed to get below 17c last spell, that was enough heat for our Irish house. Any hotter and I'll be exchanging the fan for an AC unit!

highdef

JCX BXC wrote: »

Stunning, or painful?

Had a few nights where it failed to get below 17c last spell, that was enough heat for our Irish house. Any hotter and I'll be exchanging the fan for an AC unit!

I'd go with stunning. Off with the bed sheets and any bed clothes... Love it