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Brexit discussion thread IV

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    #842
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,720 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    ... and as someone commented on one of the twitter threads: that cartoon must surely have taken longer to produce than the time available during the Chequers Lock-In, so what exactly what the point of yesterday's pantomime?

    And de-annexing Fermanagh from NI ... :D Perfectly sums up both the amateurishness of the administration and the irrelevance of NI to the Great British Public.


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    #843
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,581 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Who of them has any real authority?

    It's just a catalogue of people going through the motions doing something they ultimately don't believe in..

    Whether it's leaving the EU in any form or not leaving the EU enough..

    Total joke.

    Cabal of traitors and liars.


    Wasn't it leaked from one of our negotiators at the EU that we don't want to talk to David Davis and only want to talk to Ollie Robbins, seeing that he is the one actually leading the negotiations. DD has nothing to do it seems, he is only there for the photo ops.


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    #844
    flatty
    Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭flatty


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    flatty wrote: »
    You need to understand the UK domestic temperature. It is a start. Your points are all correct, I didn't argue otherwise, but there are definite signs that the politicians are finally waking up to brexit. I'd argue that it is indeed a start, and the EU should try not to publicly deride it. Its an opening gambit at long long last.

    I suspect the way Barnier will play it will be essentially to say "It's a start, but we need a commitment on services", then when that concession is made, he'll drop in the need for legal text on the Border. Ultimately, we'll arrive at EEA plus, but one doesn't get from Lancaster House to there all in one go.
    That would be my take as more of a possibility now than before. Its very late, but may needs to shove things as gently as possible to prepare the ground for a capitulation. The optics are extremely important though.


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    #845
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,433 ✭✭✭McGiver


    flatty wrote: »
    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    flatty wrote: »
    You need to understand the UK domestic temperature. It is a start. Your points are all correct, I didn't argue otherwise, but there are definite signs that the politicians are finally waking up to brexit. I'd argue that it is indeed a start, and the EU should try not to publicly deride it. Its an opening gambit at long long last.

    I suspect the way Barnier will play it will be essentially to say "It's a start, but we need a commitment on services", then when that concession is made, he'll drop in the need for legal text on the Border. Ultimately, we'll arrive at EEA plus, but one doesn't get from Lancaster House to there all in one go.
    That would be my take as more of a possibility now than before. Its very late, but may needs to shove things as gently as possible to prepare the ground for a capitulation. The optics are extremely important though.
    How? All red lines are still there and even now officially confirmed as the UK's negotiating position. Unless they are going drop them one by one by a salami method, for which there isn't time, I don't see how EEA could be the result.


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    #846
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,433 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Patser wrote: »
    Can they get anything right.

    Theresa May released a lovely cartoony video showing exactly what she's proposing. Now ignoring that again it's day dream stuff with no specifics - ie no hard border on Ireland or between NI and UK.

    They also forgot to include Fermanagh, Arlene Fosters county, in their images of the UK.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1015337051355480064

    [url]

    The funny thing is that the Brexiteers actually say that this latest agreed cakeism isn't cakeist enough!

    Andrea Jenkyns, who quit as a ministerial aide in order to speak more freely about Brexit, said she would be willing to help trigger a leadership contest if the deal left the UK "one foot in, one foot out" of the EU.

    "I am not a hypocrite," the Morley and Outwood MP said in an interview recorded for the BBC's Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

    "I am standing up for the 17.4 million people who wanted these red lines and who wanted to ensure we did not have a half in-half out Brexit."


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    #847
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    The whole thing is still totally unrealistic and they're presenting it to the British media and public as if it were a 'deal' already. They've only done a deal with themselves so far, and I'm not even convinced that's going to stick as the Brexiteers start to push back.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if the position is unravelled again by Wednesday.


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    #848
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    The whole thing is still totally unrealistic and they're presenting it to the British media and public as if it were a 'deal' already. They've only done a deal with themselves so far, and I'm not even convinced that's going to stick as the Brexiteers start to push back.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if the position is unravelled again by Wednesday.

    Fairly easy to do a deal when you give everyone what they want. Unfortunately they now have to make a lovely roast beef while also being vegan friendly


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    #849
    yermanoffthetv
    Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭yermanoffthetv


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    The whole thing is still totally unrealistic and they're presenting it to the British media and public as if it were a 'deal' already. They've only done a deal with themselves so far, and I'm not even convinced that's going to stick as the Brexiteers start to push back.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if the position is unravelled again by Wednesday.

    I dont see much of a difference between this one and the one the EU forensically dismantled a few months ago. Id say they'll be fairly blunt in their response. Wednesday is optimistic!


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    #850
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Nothing new in this that I can see. Same old cherry picking rubbish from Britain in the belief they are the main body of the dog rather than the tail.
    Not overly surprised that the hard Brexiteers haven`t jumped ship. Dumb as they are they are smart enough to see that the EU will not accept this and they will get their hard Brexit by the usual media suspects whipping up a storm over an unreasonable EU being the cause.


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    #851
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,830 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    You are missing the point! It is not something the EU can decide, it is a WTO requirement. The only way you can have a trade deal with better terms than most favored nation is to enter into a customs union, this is what Turkey did. It can’t have a separate policy because the block trades as a single unit with the senior partner being responsible for trade negotiations etc...

    Even if the EU were to agree to this nonsense, it hard to see how WTO members would agree to it. .
    It won't even get to WTO. The WTO is the backstop.

    The other sixty countries with EU treaties could demand the same entitlement as the UK, based on default level of most favoured nation compared to the deal they have.


    It would cost the EU an absolute bloody fortune to let the UK off the hook on any deal unless the conditions imposed are as stringent as anyone else already getting the same deal. Considering how much of Brexit is based on money it's shocking that the UK hasn't acknowledged this.


    Of the 27 other countries in the EU how many of them will allow the UK similar rights without being bound by the ECJ like they are ?




    Have the UK expressed any red lines for the EFTA Court either ?
    Then again the Swiss and Norwegians and Iceland and don't forget Liechtenstein aren't exactly bending over to allow the UK take the lions share by remaining in the EFTA or EEA. And besides the UK would still need to accept ECJ for most dealings with the EU, which is why it hasn't come up.

    Instead the UK solution is still 50:50 or rather 50% for UK and less than 2% for each of the other 27 countries ??


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    #852
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭fash


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    Fairly easy to do a deal when you give everyone what they want. Unfortunately they now have to make a lovely roast beef while also being vegan friendly
    That metaphor offers some great opportunities to describe Brexit without referring to cake:
    "Brexit: the Halal pork chop"


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    #853
    Trasna1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Trasna1


    fash wrote: »
    That metaphor offers some great opportunities to describe Brexit without referring to cake:
    "Brexit: the Halal pork chop"

    Can I just say the constant referring to "cake" and "unicorns" on this thread is not befitting of a serious political discussion and more inportantly, really annoying.

    It's more suited to Twitter tbh.


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    #854
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,714 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Trasna1 wrote: »
    Can I just say the constant referring to "cake" and "unicorns" on this thread is not befitting of a serious political discussion and more inportantly, really annoying.

    It's more suited to Twitter tbh.

    Are you ever in the thread bar a fleeting monthly visit.

    I can't imagine it annoys a non contributor that much tbh


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    #855
    judeboy101
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,246 ✭✭✭judeboy101


    Trasna1 wrote: »
    Can I just say the constant referring to "cake" and "unicorns" on this thread is not befitting of a serious political discussion and more inportantly, really annoying.

    It's more suited to Twitter tbh.

    In fairness the UK are talking about unicorns so much, voldemort is lining up for some serious bloodsucking.


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    #856
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,269 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Trasna1 wrote: »
    Can I just say the constant referring to "cake" and "unicorns" on this thread is not befitting of a serious political discussion and more inportantly, really annoying.

    It's more suited to Twitter tbh.
    It would potentially become a serious political discussion if there were two adults at the table doing negotiation; at the moment there's adults on one side and a bunch of children screaming on the opposite side. It's a bit hard having a serious discussion in such a situation esp. when the children refuses to even accept basic facts about reality. As a side note the cake was added by Boris himself; a key player after all.


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    #857
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,499 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    The term cake is annoying, but as pointed out it was officially used by both Boris and IDS so it is part of the language of Brexit.

    In terms of the Chequers Brexit agreement, I really cannot see how the likes of Boris et al can continue on in Government. The thinking seems to be that the EU will reject it anyway, but what has actually happened it the PM has gone in almost the complete opposite direction that they have been calling for. Have they fundamentally changed their view on what Brexit means or have they concluded that all their talk in the campaign was unrealistic (easy trade deals etc).

    Surely the likes of Gove and Boris, being as they were very much at the head of the campaign, must now acknowledge that since they have had a major change of heart that the only correct thing to do is to extend that to the people. Another vote based on the actual realities that they now accept? I cannot understand why the media is not all over that point. They seem to be almost gleeful that an agreement has been researched, forgetting that A) this is only a deal within the UK government itself and B) is marks a complete waste of 2 years on behalf of the government.

    What of Liam Fox? All his hard work getting all these trade deals ready to go seems to have been wasted. He must be gutted.


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    #858
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    http://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1015627581012566021/photo/1


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    #859
    mickoneill31
    Registered Users Posts: 855 ✭✭✭mickoneill31


    Trasna1 wrote: »
    Can I just say the constant referring to "cake" and "unicorns" on this thread is not befitting of a serious political discussion and more inportantly, really annoying.

    It's more suited to Twitter tbh.

    We had the PM rabbiting "Brexit means Brexit" for months. Was that befitting a serious discussion?
    More recently shes been talking about the Brexit dividend that we know exists as much as a unicorn does.

    Then we could have a look at Gove, Johnson, Fox, Rees Mogg or IDS etc. etc.

    When they're serious, we can stop talking about cake.


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    #860
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    It's basically a weird scenario of a total leadership vacuum on both sides of the house and a ridiculous proposal that nobody's willing to call out as undeliverable. So instead, they're willing to walk the country into an economic disaster.

    It's the Emperor's New Clothes of political objectives and absolutely nobody who has any power to do anything about it is willing to call it for what it is : sheer idiocy.

    They either end up with a hard Brexit that causes economic chaos and unsettles the fragile Northern Ireland peace process, amongts other things.

    Or they get a soft Brexit which reduces them to an associate member of the EU that has to comply with all the rules while having no input into how they're formed.

    Or, they could call the whole thing off and keep their highly privileged existing arrangement where they're on the inner circle of the EU but have more opt outs than a Hollywood prenuptial agreement.


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    #861
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,499 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    And this is the point I was trying to make. Everytime anyone does raise any concerns they are met with "The will of the people" or some version of the people voted for Brexit.

    But clearly the likes of Boris, Gove, Davies and Fox have now all decided that the version of Brexit that they portrayed during the campaign and up until two days ago, is no longer (it never was but in terms of what they believed) available.

    So surely the will of the people is a nonsense, since the people never voted for this. And the vote should be held again. I cannot understand how they can simply continue on as if everything is the way it was planned


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    #862
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,581 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    http://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1015627581012566021/photo/1


    Here is a link to the article from the tweet.
    Under her plan for UK-EU relations - agreed by cabinet on Friday - unlimited immigration from the EU will end.

    But speaking to the BBC, Mrs May did not rule out preferential treatment for EU citizens after Brexit.

    "We recognise that people will still want to have opportunities in each other's countries," she said.

    Asked if it was possible EU citizens might get some preferential treatment, the prime minister said: "We are going to decide. What we're going to do is say what works for the UK, what's right for the United Kingdom?"

    As for us stop talking about cakes and unicorns, here we have the UK Government telling us they will stop free movement of people but somehow they will still have no borders. Can someone please tell them to get real. You cannot pick and choose what you want to abide by from the EU. If you want frictionless trade you take all that comes with that. If you don't want some of what the EU wants, you will not have frictionless trade and you will have to decide whether to uphold the GFA and have an border in the Irish Sea, or you tear up the GFA and have a border between the UK and the EU.

    My hope is that Theresa May has set herself up to allow for her to row back on her promises. She has now said she will do what is right for the UK. I foresee an almighty fudge where she will dress up "membership" of the EU as a free choice by the UK and in no way going against the referendum. She will sell that, or try to sell it, to the people as them taking back control.


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    #863
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,559 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    And this is the point I was trying to make. Everytime anyone does raise any concerns they are met with "The will of the people" or some version of the people voted for Brexit.

    But clearly the likes of Boris, Gove, Davies and Fox have now all decided that the version of Brexit that they portrayed during the campaign and up until two days ago, is no longer (it never was but in terms of what they believed) available.

    So surely the will of the people is a nonsense, since the people never voted for this. And the vote should be held again. I cannot understand how they can simply continue on as if everything is the way it was planned

    The problem with having another vote is the possibility of another slim majority one way or the other. It points to problem as big as, or bigger than, Brexit itself - namely a political class and electorate who are hopelessly divided and at war with themselves. In a very real sense, the UK has found itself in a spot where democracy hasn't really worked because democracy is all about doing right by the majority, but the word almost rings hollow when the minority is so very large that it could become the majority by a whisker if public opinion shifts even a little.

    It's true that you can have compromise in a democracy, which would be the normal solution, but to add to the UK's woes we're talking about an issue where too many on either side are diametrically opposed. So, that combination of two halves being so opposed makes me wonder how much another vote would solve.

    I notice that ever since the vote, there's still been a lot of fear being peddled by Remain, which I think is the wrong tack. They're essentially trying to combat negative feelings toward the EU with more negativity, and they've been trotting out far too many middle-class intellectuals and celebrities to stump up for the cause. I'm not knocking those kinds of people, but it shows a weird out-of-touch mentality when you had Eddie Izzard going around in lipstick and a pink beret advocating for the EU, and I like Eddie Izzard as a comedian but it doesn't take much to see how he's not going to connect with Joe Soap up in Sunderland. Funny, but I think Danny Dyer with his rant on the ineptitude of Brexit has done more for Remain's cause than the past two years of debates and Question Times.


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    #864
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,499 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Not another vote just on leave or stay, but leave with no deal or stay.

    That dramatically, at least IMO, changes the nature of the debate. There would be no big bus. No we can have everything we want.

    Leave and this is the outcome. That was diluted the last time with made up nonsense and dreams.


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    #865
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,559 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Not another vote just on leave or stay, but leave with no deal or stay.

    That dramatically, at least IMO, changes the nature of the debate. There would be no big bus. No we can have everything we want.

    Leave and this is the outcome. That was diluted the last time with made up nonsense and dreams.

    You could put that vote to the people, and I think Remain would win, but if you phrased the choice like that, you're giving the anti-EU crowd huge capital to work with. They can go to the public and say, "Well, it looks like the EU and their buddies in Westminster got what they wanted - they (deliberately) fudged the deal, that would have been mutually agreeable, and then put a gun to the head of the public."

    You still have to take a Remain vote and then salve concerns about EU membership, such that UKIP isn't the majority party in 10 years, because they'll definitely be re-grouping.


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    #866
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,499 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Yeah, didn't say it was going to be easy, and of course the likes of UKIP would argue that it was all a vast conspiracy.

    But who would be on the leave side. Can't be any of the current minister as the first question to all of them is why they did not get a better deal the first time - Davies in particular would have to concede that it was his fault. The others would have to argue directly against the PM.

    So Boris, a leading light of the Leave campaign would be gone. Same to for Gove. And on and on. Bascially, you are left with JRM and Farage. They would certainly bring people along with them, but the plan would surely be to focus on their plan.

    The last campaign was really all about how terrible the EU was, with the implication that Leave would make everything better, and new one should really all be about what am I voting leave for?

    Anyway, its academic. There will not be a vote. The UK will probably not have another ref for at least a generation, because as you alluded to it will really solve nothing in terms of the divisions


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    #867
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,483 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    briany wrote: »
    You still have to take a Remain vote and then salve concerns about EU membership, such that UKIP isn't the majority party in 10 years, because they'll definitely be re-grouping.

    The thing is that people know that voting Leave didn't grant the promised utopia. It simply exposed how divided and incompetent the Conservative party is.

    A referendum on the final deal with the option to retain EU membership would succeed in my opinion because it forces both sides onto equal footing. No more magical promises made on the sides of buses, no more meaningless rhetoric about glorious trade deals, regulatory bonfires or magical border control. No, both sides would be rooted in tangible circumstances whereas in 2016, only one side was which helped to cost them the referendum.

    This is why so many are so opposed to another referendum. Farage, Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Banks, Cummings & co know that they just about edged this thing over the line thanks to the perfect storm I mentioned above. Take away any one piece, the refugee crisis, the NHS bus, Greece, economic stagnation and it doesn't make the cut. The result is that we now have a government which is still negotiating what it wants not with Mr. Barnier, but with itself. Did it ever even start negotiating with the EU because so far it seems that they've just capitulated?

    According to this, 48 percent of voters in a survey want a "People's vote" while only 25 percent did not. The vote has revealed what a mess UK politics is at the moment and, arguably has been in a long time with governments who haven't won the majority of votes cast implementing policies most of the public didn't vote for and in some cases actively opposed. Remaining in the EU won't fix the UK's problems but it's a good starting point.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #868
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    The ERG are stirring (in all ways):

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1015665066832809985


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    #869
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,864 ✭✭✭trellheim


    The ERG are stirring (in all ways):

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/s...65066832809985

    Though in fairness, stripped of the rhetoric he's not wrong.

    Edit - the obvs next step is to kill this in favour of no deal as its the worst of all worlds for the ERG


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    #870
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    briany wrote: »
    You still have to take a Remain vote and then salve concerns about EU membership, such that UKIP isn't the majority party in 10 years, because they'll definitely be re-grouping.

    A referendum on the final deal with the option to retain EU membership would succeed in my opinion because it forces both sides onto equal footing.

    That option is not available to the UK. Any other ideas?


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    #871
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,293 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    briany wrote: »
    The problem with having another vote is the possibility of another slim majority one way or the other. It points to problem as big as, or bigger than, Brexit itself - namely a political class and electorate who are hopelessly divided and at war with themselves. In a very real sense, the UK has found itself in a spot where democracy hasn't really worked because democracy is all about doing right by the majority, but the word almost rings hollow when the minority is so very large that it could become the majority by a whisker if public opinion shifts even a little.

    It's true that you can have compromise in a democracy, which would be the normal solution, but to add to the UK's woes we're talking about an issue where too many on either side are diametrically opposed. So, that combination of two halves being so opposed makes me wonder how much another vote would solve.

    I notice that ever since the vote, there's still been a lot of fear being peddled by Remain, which I think is the wrong tack. They're essentially trying to combat negative feelings toward the EU with more negativity, and they've been trotting out far too many middle-class intellectuals and celebrities to stump up for the cause. I'm not knocking those kinds of people, but it shows a weird out-of-touch mentality when you had Eddie Izzard going around in lipstick and a pink beret advocating for the EU, and I like Eddie Izzard as a comedian but it doesn't take much to see how he's not going to connect with Joe Soap up in Sunderland. Funny, but I think Danny Dyer with his rant on the ineptitude of Brexit has done more for Remain's cause than the past two years of debates and Question Times.

    Middle class intellectuals? As opposed to what other types of intellectuals?

    Who is it you'd prefer to hear from?


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