Brexit discussion thread IV

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0000pvm

Go to about 1:49 in to the program.

good lord - customers operating as border officials.

This lad doesn't understand what regulatory border checks are

just got to the passport bit - I'm slowly dying inside from the cringe factor

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

Gutteridge is a freelance journalist based in Brussels, and McTague is chief political correspondent for politico.eu, a Brussels-based joint venture between Politico in the US and Axel Springer Verlag in Germany, which focuses on European, particularly EU, politics. It's absurd to suggest that they "view the situation only from a British perspective".

You misunderstand my point. Both of them are looking at Brexit from how it impacts the UK. The rest of Europe is looking at it from how if affects them.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

After listening to that Pro-Brexit Tory MP on 5 live last night, it is pretty clear that they really haven't a notion what the whole thing entails.

John Redmond on Morning Ireland was displaying the same mix of ignorance and defiance.

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0000pvm

Go to about 1:49 in to the program.

Wow, it's worse than I expected. A reciprocal agreement for getting passports, and those in the Republic of Ireland can vote in British elections. Shame he had to break for the news, gave him a bit of time to regroup and open up google. Andrew Bridgen was the man of the hour, even panellists due to follow him on the show were in awe

https://twitter.com/EJWoolf/status/1051636380730822656

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

John Redmond on Morning Ireland was displaying the same mix of ignorance and defiance.

I haven't heard that, but based on last nights interview and lots of other I have heard/read. it is also clear that they really think this is a one way problem. That the UK won't need to do any of this. It is a purely NI/ROI problem.

Just on the happenings of yesterday, it is pretty clear from the timeline on events that a deal was expected. The EU embass being summounded, Raab flying over to meet Barnier.

So something happened. Something lead to the EU thinking a deal was agreed and Raab heading over to finalise, but within an hour he was leaving again. So what happened. Did Raab go against the tentative agreement? Did he not know what had been agreed and when told he couldn't agree?

Who agreed that Raab should go over and did they not understand what he was going over for?

The DUP are saying no, yet all the indicators are that they haven't seen the deal yet. Is May really going to continue without giving anyone any view on the actual deal?

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Wow, it's worse than I expected. A reciprocal agreement for getting passports, and those in the Republic of Ireland can vote in British elections. Shame he had to break for the news, gave him a bit of time to regroup and open up google.

Amazed he hung around to be honest... surprised that he didn't have a 'reason' to head off

Either way it cuts to the heart of the ignorance/disregard of all matters Irish where Tories are concerned.

They generally speaking do not see Ireland as something that they need to be informed about.

Sure the current Northern Ireland secretary gleefully admitted to be wholly ignorant of all matters Northern Ireland as it if it were a badge of honour. Speaks volumes to two things - firstly that an MP can be that willfully ill informed about a part of their own 'union' and their nearest neighbour and not see it as an embarrassment and secondly that the PM cared so little for a part of their 'union' as to knowingly appoint someone who was so proudly ignorant of their brief.

Peregrinus

Reading between the lines, Raab may have gone over to signal to the EU that May would like to do this deal, or something very like it, but doesn''t yet have the political cover for it at home, so she needs more time or more dressing up of the deal or she simply wants to postpone accepting it until its too late for her opponents to do anything about it.

As regards Foster not having seen the draft deal, of course she hasn't. She can't definitively reject it without having seen it, so naturally May isnt' going to show it to her.

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

I don’t think we are quite understanding the attitudes in the UK.

I am not even trying anymore.

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

Amazed he hung around to be honest... surprised that he didn't have a 'reason' to head off

Did he come back after the news? I'm still listening and Nolan said he can't get in touch and his phone is going straight to voicemail.

Seth Brundle

Hurrache wrote: »

Did he come back after the news? I'm still listening and Nolan said he can't get in touch and his phone is going straight to voicemail.

Apparently he hung up (Nolan said so @ 2:13).
The guy was completely ignorant of Ireland (North and South) but is possibly representative of the majority of Tories.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Did he come back after the news? I'm still listening and Nolan said he can't get in touch and his phone is going straight to voicemail.

I had to pause at the news (work related distraction) I presumed he did come back as I would have expected Kermit to have mentioned that he did run off..

now I hear the bit where he did indeed hang up and switch his phone off.

Ridiculous. Dangerously ill informed and then afraid to face up to it.. I'd put money on him repeating similar guff in the future though

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

Did he come back after the news? I'm still listening and Nolan said he can't get in touch and his phone is going straight to voicemail.

Not unless he came back on later, I didn't hear if he did and would be surprised if he did.

He wanted to talk in generalities, as is the norm with Brexiteers. Nolan, being from NI, wanted specifics. But the guy hadn't a monkeys. He hadn't really thought anything through, had no plan, hadn't considered the side effects of any of his ideas. And that is what they were. Ideas. Nothing wrong with coming up with ideas, but 18 months after the vote, a few days before the original signoff deadline, this needs more than simply ideas.

TBH, whilst I completely understand the passport thing being the headline, as it really was staggeringly ignorant, Nolan should have delved deeper into exactly what this plan of roving customs officers was about, who was going to pay for them, how many of them, would they be 24/7, would they be joint EU/UK. Would it also be roving inspectors in the GB? Where is the budget for it?

And what have they got to say to their own constituencies about the impact will have on their business. We know that there is a lot of trade from the UK to Ireland. What will borders and checks and tariffs so to those companies? There has been no answer.

EdgeCase

What worries me about that Nolan show interview is that there are people willing, at this stage in the brexit discussions, to engage in discussion about something highly technical using half facts and vague notions.

It's worrying that they think they can bluff a highly technocratic body like the EU. It's not a discussion with a tabloid newspaper or some people in the corner of a pub. They're dealing with legal experts and in the case of Barnier, he's literally one of the authors of the Lisbon Treaty and has deep knowledge of the Northern Irish situation.

But apart from the individuals involved, they are talking to a panel of leading experts on all of these issues, not some backbench MP from wherever he was from.

You can't just bluff your way past this.

We shouldn't be at the stage, a few months ahead of the absolute final deadline, where parties are still only figuring out what Northern Ireland or the CTA or any of these things are. It's utterly frightening that that's the level of focus.

This is a highly technical negotiation!

demfad

The DUP is now saying that Brexit could be an existential threat to NIs Union with GB. Clearly, the DUP backing remain was a huge blunder. How many in NI would now back remain in a second referendum. (Imagine the DUP's "campaign" ).

It's worth remembering how this came about: All Leave parties paid monies to AIQ. The police investigation into this appears to be being blocked by 10 Downing street. There are massive incentives behind the scenes for the UK to crash out with no-deal.

kowtow

Peregrinus wrote: »

Reading between the lines, Raab may have gone over to signal to the EU that May would like to do this deal, or something very like it, but doesn''t yet have the political cover for it at home, so she needs more time or more dressing up of the deal or she simply wants to postpone accepting it until its too late for her opponents to do anything about it.

As regards Foster not having seen the draft deal, of course she hasn't. She can't definitively reject it without having seen it, so naturally May isnt' going to show it to her.

That's more or less where my money would be as well.

The last thing May needs at the moment is a done deal, because - whilst Corbyn has been slippery as hell over Brexit - I don't think that when push comes to shove he wants to be painted as the guy who threw the country over the cliff for his own political reasons.

One of the only concrete pronouncements from Labour on Brexit (at least that I can recall) is that they would seek a whole UK customs union - they should have wiggle room enough to hold their noses and vote for this.

As things stand today Corbyn can refuse support on the basis that May has time to call an election. That route becomes less and less practical as March approaches.

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's worrying that they think they can bluff a highly technocratic body like the EU.

They don't.

They just think they can baffle the UK public, which seems to be working so far.

Seth Brundle

demfad wrote: »

The DUP is now saying that Brexit could be an existential threat to NIs Union with GB. Clearly, the DUP backing remain was a huge blunder.

Do you mean the DUP backing Brexit was a blunder?

lawred2

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Apparently he hung up (Nolan said so @ 2:13).
The guy was completely ignorant of Ireland (North and South) but is possibly representative of the majority of Tories.

You should listen on for a UKIP lad named Sandy attempt to argue that Andrew Bridgen was actually correct and that he's being misrepresented..

So there you go - even when you're wrong - you're right as far as the extremists are concerned. There can be no dialogue or evolution in mindset with people like this.

Hurrache

Coveney saying that the agreement on the backstop Britain made had no time limit, and someone posts a pic of the agreement backing what he says up in the thread below.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1051760868512452608

kuro68k

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

flatty

I think that even if corbyn votes against a deal, and whips the vote, it will damage him little. The more fervent in the press want a hard brexit in any case, and corbyn has been consistent in arguing for a softish brexit, and can continually point to this. The tories are carrying the parcel here. They will be foursquare landed with the backlash.
I've said before that in years to come, the drivers of the bus in the public eye, May, fox, Davis, bojo and Jrm will not be able to safely walk down a public street.

Itssoeasy

First Up wrote: »

John Redmond on Morning Ireland was displaying the same mix of ignorance and defiance.

I heard that interview. How they are still as blind to the reality and potential problems I'll never know. Even Brian Dobson was if not laughing he seemed to find it funny.

Hurrache

May supposed to be having a press conference on Brexit today. Commentators over there saying it's unusual as they're usually not given outside of the afters of meetings etc. Press photographers also saying that her team have been blocking the media, using cars, from taking any photos of her on her way into Number 10, taking her in through a side/back door.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Right. We're at very near 10,000 posts so I am locking this. New thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057920074