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Brexit discussion thread IV

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    #782
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,790 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Why would any brexiteers feel isolated when they are aware it flies in the face of EU rules.

    Won't fly. Crash out.


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    #783
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,441 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Inquitus wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1015324539335725059

    Read the agreement there, it won't fly with the EU, its Cherry Picked Unicorns on a Cake.

    But it is a step towards a soft Brexit, with the option for including services and FOM. Then they have 'Brexit in name only' and 'why bother'.

    They then have 'Let us put it to the people - Accept offer or remain.

    Remain wins.


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    #784
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,272 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Inquitus wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1015324539335725059

    Read the agreement there, it won't fly with the EU, its Cherry Picked Unicorns on a Cake.
    Finally picking a fight only to come out with a document EU said two years ago will not be allowed; Go UK!


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    #785
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,748 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    But it is a step towards a soft Brexit, with the option for including services and FOM. Then they have 'Brexit in name only' and 'why bother'.

    They then have 'Let us put it to the people - Accept offer or remain.

    Remain wins.

    Granted its a huge climb down and the beginnings of the path to a viable soft Brexit, but a lot in there will never fly with the EU.


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    #786
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,578 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    But it is a step towards a soft Brexit, with the option for including services and FOM. Then they have 'Brexit in name only' and 'why bother'.

    They then have 'Let us put it to the people - Accept offer or remain.

    Remain wins.

    Just phrasing the question like that is going to make hardcore Brexiteers incandescent with rage. If they don't like the deal, then it's just a question of 'Sh*t or sh*ttier?' to them. They'll be wanting their 'No deal - Crash out' option.


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    #787
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    [QUO

    But it is a step towards a soft Brexit, with the option for including services and FOM. Then they have 'Brexit in name only' and 'why bother'.

    They then have 'Let us put it to the people - Accept offer or remain.

    Remain wins.
    Accept offer or remain is not an option. The choice is accept offer or crash out.


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    #788
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,272 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Here's a brief comment on the statement broken down from my perspective based on EU's position; pretty much every bullet point has Unicorn and fairy dust sprinkled on them...
    Point 3 - Cheery picking; you can't pick which of the 4 freedoms to allow
    Point 4a - Diversion from the single market rules & no oversight
    Point 4b - EU does not do reciprocal deals for a good reason nor does EU allow UK to keep lower requirements when EU raises the bar as you propose
    Point 4c - Diverging from EU court control & ignoring court rulings while remaining in the single market
    Point 4d - EU already stated no third party state will ever be allowed to collect customs on their behalf yet that is exactly UK's proposal
    Point 5 - No; the agreement does not resolve the "Withdrawal Agreement issues"
    Point 6a - Nice how they skipped out the minor part about fishing policy which directly ties into to being allowed to export fish etc. as a requirement for alignment; once again showing complete lack of understanding of EU law
    Point 6b - Trying to sneak in UK being allowed to sell services with a diverging regime and EU should be happy about it
    Point 6c - UK issue; EU don't care
    Point 6d - Which flies directly against your claim to want a common set of laws for single market with EU by ignoring EU law that require the fishing policy to be approved by EU for any third party country for imports
    Point 6e - You can't be in the single market and have your own trade policy
    Point 6f - Nice attempt to try to state that UK can do what ever they want but we will not, trust us, because you might remove some access if we do
    Point 6g - Flies against the single market once again; EU courts has to be the overall arbitrator
    Point 6h - Ending free movement and setting your own whims on letting people in
    Point 6i - Only to turn around and ask EU to implement special rules to let UK citizens to continue travel as before
    Point 6j - Stop paying anything to EU for having access to the single market; that one will go down swell I'm sure
    Point 6k - Oh so UK should have "operational capabilities" and "suitable arrangements to work with EU if required"; so EU should be at UK's call as needed but not the other way around
    Honestly it's so dripped in faery dust and unicorn blood I wonder if the author was either a) high on LSD/cocaine or b) has not read any discussions or comments from EU for the last three years because pretty much every single point has already been thrown out by EU to date (exception being one around internal lines in UK which EU don't care about).


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    #789
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,895 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Look at the comments here, this is going to be a forest fire by Monday morning:

    https://order-order.com/2018/07/06/cabinet-backs-softest-brexit/

    And thats the unicorn deal they have no hope of getting!


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    #790
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,441 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    First Up wrote: »
    Accept offer or remain is not an option. The choice is accept offer or crash out.

    Agreed, but crash out is not an option for any sane person.

    However, that supposes they are sane.

    A crash out will destroy the car industry in Britain, and the aerospace industry, and most multinational industries.

    Will not affect those who had the foresight to plan ahead, like Nigel Lawson getting his French residency, or JRM moving his operation to Dublin, or Farage making sure his kids have German passports.

    Will GBP rise or fall on this 'agreement'?


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    #791
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,677 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    That's poor enough for nearly a year and a half into a two year process. Have the DUP been consulted yet ?


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    #792
    flatty
    Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭flatty


    It's a start though.


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    #793
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,272 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    flatty wrote: »
    It's a start though.
    No; a start would actually contain any single element EU could actually approve. Based on their document there is not a single point EU can actually agree to because it's all cherry picking rules allowing UK to play by their own rules, do their own thing and not being under any EU jurisdiction while selling into the single market.


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    #794
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    First Up wrote: »
    Accept offer or remain is not an option. The choice is accept offer or crash out.

    Agreed, but crash out is not an option for any sane person.
    It is the only option other than accept what the EU offers them. The leave next May. End of.


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    #795
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Where would this leave the border?

    Barnier yesterday again saying it should be in Irish sea.


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    #796
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,954 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    So two years after the referendum people will find out what they were voting for ?

    Or at least what the UK govt's starting point for is for the negotiations.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44747444
    The main details of the "Chequers statement" are as follows:

    ...
    The UK will be able to control its own tariffs and develop an independent trade policy

    The jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice will end but the UK will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force.
    Turkey doesn't get to develop an independent trade policy in most areas so the UK , must get lesser access.
    So it's Canada.

    ECJ / EHCR are red lines for May too, so lots of little things fall apart too.
    So it's not Canada plus plus


    5a394c31160000783ecf2154.jpeg


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    #797
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Where would this leave the border?

    Barnier yesterday again saying it should be in Irish sea.

    Their aim is that the FCA and FTA would essentially be rebranded SMCU arrangements, making the backstop redundant, but the restrictions on services and FoM drive a cart and horses through EU rules.


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    #798
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    I see Farage's happy!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1015334183068192768


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    #799
    zapitastas
    Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭zapitastas


    flatty wrote: »
    It's a start though.

    Would have been a start two years ago. Now is just too little too late. Has to be the worst organised negotiations from a state


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    #800
    flatty
    Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭flatty


    Nody wrote: »
    flatty wrote: »
    It's a start though.
    No; a start would actually contain any single element EU could actually approve. Based on their document there is not a single point EU can actually agree to because it's all cherry picking rules allowing UK to play by their own rules, do their own thing and not being under any EU jurisdiction while selling into the single market.
    You need to understand the UK domestic temperature. It is a start. Your points are all correct, I didn't argue otherwise, but there are definite signs that the politicians are finally waking up to brexit. I'd argue that it is indeed a start, and the EU should try not to publicly deride it. Its an opening gambit at long long last.


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    #801
    Infini
    Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Where would this leave the border?

    Barnier yesterday again saying it should be in Irish sea.

    Realistically the only WORKABLE option is to have the border in the Irish Sea. Checks at ports and airports are the only manageble solution. Absolutely no chance of it working on a windy 500mile border. Our own diplomats would have already well briefed the EU on its history and how porous it is. Its just not realistic to even bother trying to enforce any border in Ireland no matter how much the DUP whinges. It's been proven to be a collossal and unworkable failure in the past as its design is too erratic. To even HAVE a workable border would mean the UK would have to cede significant territory to the republic to straigten it out and even at that it would face massive local opposition. I think realistically the only way they could walk out the way they like to, would be to cede NI to the Republic. Would be the only way for them to eliminate the border issue as then The UK would only be their island and not ours.


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    #802
    flatty
    Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭flatty


    zapitastas wrote: »
    flatty wrote: »
    It's a start though.

    Would have been a start two years ago. Now is just too little too late. Has to be the worst organised negotiations from a state
    The timing is irrelevant in that the UK has always had three options only. They withdraw a50, they take what the EU offer them in order to keep trade going in its current form, or they exit without a deal.
    These are still the only three options, haven't changed, and won't. There is nothing to negotiate. To my mind, option two is starting to have the way prepared for it.


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    #803
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,790 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    flatty wrote: »
    You need to understand the UK domestic temperature. It is a start. Your points are all correct, I didn't argue otherwise, but there are definite signs that the politicians are finally waking up to brexit. I'd argue that it is indeed a start, and the EU should try not to publicly deride it. Its an opening gambit at long long last.

    It's nothing of that sort.

    Literally and physically typed it's nonsense.


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    #804
    Sheeps
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    I feel bad for Theresa May.


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    #805
    Infini
    Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    Sheeps wrote: »
    I feel bad for Theresa May.

    Wouldnt lose any sleep over it. This mess is her own making she would've had alot less trouble if she'd reigned in those gombeens in her cabinet sooner and not called an unnessesary election.


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    #806
    ARNOLD J RIMMER
    Closed Accounts Posts: 215 ✭✭ARNOLD J RIMMER


    It’s clear that this was set up for rejection by the EU. May will do a Cameron and get out before they crash out.


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    #807
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,578 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Infini wrote: »
    I think realistically the only way they could walk out the way they like to, would be to cede NI to the Republic. Would be the only way for them to eliminate the border issue as then The UK would only be their island and not ours.

    There are specific provisions under which the constitutional status of NI can change found within the GFA. UK simply ceding the territory to RoI with no democratic mandate from NI is not one of them AFAIK, and is roughly as realistic as the defence forces of RoI marching up there and annexing the place, i.e. a disaster.


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    #808
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    flatty wrote: »
    You need to understand the UK domestic temperature. It is a start. Your points are all correct, I didn't argue otherwise, but there are definite signs that the politicians are finally waking up to brexit. I'd argue that it is indeed a start, and the EU should try not to publicly deride it. Its an opening gambit at long long last.

    I suspect the way Barnier will play it will be essentially to say "It's a start, but we need a commitment on services", then when that concession is made, he'll drop in the need for legal text on the Border. Ultimately, we'll arrive at EEA plus, but one doesn't get from Lancaster House to there all in one go.


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    #809
    Sheeps
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    Infini wrote: »
    Wouldnt lose any sleep over it. This mess is her own making she would've had alot less trouble if she'd reigned in those gombeens in her cabinet sooner and not called an unnessesary election.

    She had to call an election, it just didn't go her way. She also voted to remain. She's one of the few willing to step up and guide the UK through the terrible outcome when few would.

    I think what ever happens, her efforts in an incredibly difficult situation should be acknowledged and respected.


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    #810
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    flatty wrote: »
    zapitastas wrote: »
    flatty wrote: »
    It's a start though.

    Would have been a start two years ago. Now is just too little too late. Has to be the worst organised negotiations from a state
    The timing is irrelevant in that the UK has always had three options only. They withdraw a50, they take what the EU offer them in order to keep trade going in its current form, or they exit without a deal.
    These are still the only three options, haven't changed, and won't. There is nothing to negotiate. To my mind, option two is starting to have the way prepared for it.
    They were always the options. It just remains to be seen which one the tragi-comedy of UK politics and media ends up choosing - and what is left of their political system after.


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    #811
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,790 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Sheeps wrote: »
    She had to call an election, it just didn't go her way. She also voted to remain. She's one of the few willing to step up and guide the UK through the terrible outcome when few would.

    I think what ever happens, her efforts in an incredibly difficult situation should be acknowledged and respected.

    You know aswell as everyone else here.

    She didn't have to call any election nor did she have to put in redlines.

    She has been given a plethora of outs including the Russian collusion to head off any challenge to her authority but she didn't take them


    Terrible leader worse negotiator


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