Exit poll: The post referendum thread. No electioneering.

fxotoole · 26-05-2018 07:43PM

I'd love to hear what that poster who said he'd "bust a nut" today when No won is doing tonight?

Shurimgreat · 26-05-2018 07:43PM

Ah jokes about abortion.

Its great isn't it!

Zubeneschamali · 26-05-2018 07:44PM

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Its great isn't it!

It really, really is. So, so happy since the polls last night.

Aidric · 26-05-2018 07:45PM

DubInMeath wrote: »

First that people were able to see past all the lies and bull of the no side, from both the official campaign and from posters on here and other online platforms. Perhaps actually together for yes should send them all big thank you posts because they definitely help push a lot of people towards yes.

The same sex marriage referendum showed the Irish electorate to be mature, fair, considerate, reflective and above all compassionate. It was the first time in our recent history a definitive statement on the conscious of the nation.

That result gave me quiet confidence that this vote would go the same way. The no campaign was defined by fudge and obfuscation. Moreover it was spearheaded by some pretty closeted headbangers who represent an Ireland of a different era. On mature reflection the contributions of the no side would have swung any undecided voters to the yes side.

An historic day by any benchmark. Congratulations to all those yes campaigners who led such an honest campaign.

circadian · 26-05-2018 07:45PM

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Ah jokes about abortion.

Its great isn't it!

Better than outright lies.

CruelCoin · 26-05-2018 07:45PM

fxotoole wrote: »

I'd love to hear what that poster who said he'd "bust a nut" today when No won is doing tonight?

Angry **** instead?

Justin Credible Darts · 26-05-2018 07:46PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They have learned not to do that in public. That's why they set up Iona, to be a lay charity group who just by coincidence agree with everything a Bishop ever said.

no no no...thats just a coincidence

amcalester · 26-05-2018 07:47PM

CruelCoin wrote: »

Angry **** instead?

self-flagellation probably.

freshpopcorn · 26-05-2018 07:48PM

I flicked on the live stream of mass there to see what the priest would say and the priest gave a sermon basically saying. You either with us or against us basically and make up your mind!

CruelCoin · 26-05-2018 07:49PM

amcalester wrote: »

self-flagellation probably.

I'm half expecting the local god botherers to be doing this around Dublin Castle:

January · 26-05-2018 07:50PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is it the government's position that it wants to legislate without restrictions to 12 weeks?

Without restriction as to reason. There will be plenty of restrictions such as the 72 hour waiting period and the fact a gp has to sign off on and report it.

Overheal · 26-05-2018 07:51PM

fxotoole wrote: »

I'd love to hear what that poster who said he'd "bust a nut" today when No won is doing tonight?

Something about renting a windowless van

wexie · 26-05-2018 07:52PM

freshpopcorn wrote: »

I flicked on the live stream of mass there to see what the priest would say and the priest gave a sermon basically saying. You either with us or against us basically and make up your mind!

one day they'll do that and then have a conniption when people start getting up to leave

fxotoole · 26-05-2018 07:52PM

My understanding is that it is restricted in the sense that abortion won't be provided in the case that the foetus is diagnosed with Downs Syndrome etc

suicide_circus · 26-05-2018 07:56PM

fxotoole wrote: »

My understanding is that it is restricted in the sense that abortion won't be provided in the case that the foetus is diagnosed with Downs Syndrome etc

So it's her body her choice....until the baby has downs. At which point she's booking a Ryanair flight?

Perfectly healthy baby's- abortion good up til 12 weeks but disabled babies are exempt from this fate?

_Dara_ · 26-05-2018 07:56PM

Aidric wrote: »

The same sex marriage referendum showed the Irish electorate to be mature, fair, considerate, reflective and above all compassionate. It was the first time in our recent history a definitive statement on the conscious of the nation.

That result gave me quiet confidence that this vote would go the same way. The no campaign was defined by fudge and obfuscation. Moreover it was spearheaded by some pretty closeted headbangers who represent an Ireland of a different era. On mature reflection the contributions of the no side would have swung any undecided voters to the yes side.

An historic day by any benchmark. Congratulations to all those yes campaigners who led such an honest campaign.

I hoped that would be true also but couldn’t bring myself to hope too hard.

amcalester · 26-05-2018 07:57PM

fxotoole wrote: »

My understanding is that it is restricted in the sense that abortion won't be provided in the case that the foetus is diagnosed with Downs Syndrome etc

That’s not checked for nor easily (if at all) diagnosed before 12 weeks.

Once the pregnancy is less than 12 weeks the woman will be allowed abort once the 72 hours has lapsed.

I’m not sure what happens if the 72 hours takes the pregnancy over the 12 week mark.

Most will occur weeks before that though.

Loafing Oaf · 26-05-2018 07:59PM

Overheal · 26-05-2018 08:15PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is it the government's position that it wants to legislate without restrictions to 12 weeks?

This is important because if we extrapolate the figures from the UK which is 190,000 abortions per year give or take and they are supposed to have restrictions in terms of medical need (mental health etc) and we apply an even laxer regime here to 12 weeks...

...then that means it is very likely that we could be seeing up to 16,000 abortions per year in Ireland in, say, 10 years.

Am I missing something or are people suggesting that Irish people are culturally so dissimilar to British that that would not be the case?

I'm not casting aspirations by the way. I'm just teasing out from the evidence from next door and the evidence suggests that abortions are going to increase very significantly among Irish women.

That 16,000 figure (if it came even close to it) has implications for the structure of the country's population pyramid as well which I did not see touched on at all. There is a potential serious economic cost here if we got close to that.

I think you’ve highlighted the danger of extrapolation.

There is more data to suggest that, within some number of years depending on how the rollout of access occurs, abortion rates will reach some peak rate per 1000 live births that will never be seen again because of being coupled with greater sex education and access to contraceptives. This was the case in the US also - 7 years after Roe vs Wade and those rates we’re never seen again.

Either way you can be certain that UK figures are going to dip in the next few years.

Sofiztikated · 26-05-2018 08:22PM

My prediction for number on the first year will be ~9k.

This will account for those that would travel anyway, those taking pills at home, those that could not otherwise access a termination, and those that will travel to the state for a termination (Northern Ireland citizens will find crossing to the border easier than getting a flight. )

Overheal · 26-05-2018 08:23PM

Sofiztikated wrote: »

My prediction for number on the first year will be ~9k.

This will account for those that would travel anyway, those taking pills at home, those that could not otherwise access a termination, and those that will travel to the state for a termination (Northern Ireland citizens will find crossing to the border easier than getting a flight. )

I don’t think the first year will be that high unless national rollout is swift. The peak rate will be seen in a few years, not immediately. It will take time to establish regulated alternative to the online ordered pills etc. and get people over the table.

spookwoman · 26-05-2018 08:38PM

You couldn't make this up

retro:electro · 26-05-2018 08:39PM

January · 26-05-2018 08:44PM

retro:electro wrote: »

Or Robert from Kilkenny... :pac:

Zubeneschamali · 26-05-2018 08:46PM

freshpopcorn wrote: »

the priest gave a sermon basically saying. You either with us or against us basically and make up your mind!

Fuhrer Ratzinger was keen on this idea - a much, much smaller church of much, much crazier people.

Pope Francis is more inclusive. I liked the smaller church Ratz had planned, because it was smaller.

spookwoman · 26-05-2018 08:47PM

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1000456759780298755

Shurimgreat · 26-05-2018 08:48PM

amcalester wrote: »

That’s not checked for nor easily (if at all) diagnosed before 12 weeks.

Once the pregnancy is less than 12 weeks the woman will be allowed abort once the 72 hours has lapsed.

I’m not sure what happens if the 72 hours takes the pregnancy over the 12 week mark.

Most will occur weeks before that though.

I'm afraid it can be checked for at an early stage and the technology continues to evolve.

http://www.irishhealth.com/article.html?id=8487

Zubeneschamali · 26-05-2018 08:49PM

Sofiztikated wrote: »

This will account for those that would travel anyway, those taking pills at home, those that could not otherwise access a termination, and those that will travel to the state for a termination )

What about the lady stand-up comedians who get pregnant so they can have an abortion for a laugh?

They were apparently weighing heavily on the minds of No voters, so they must be a significant percentage.

Zubeneschamali · 26-05-2018 08:50PM

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1000456759780298755

Is that what an actual neckbeard looks like?

January · 26-05-2018 08:50PM

Shurimgreat wrote: »

I'm afraid it can be checked for at an early stage.

http://www.irishhealth.com/article.html?id=8487

It also costs 500+ euro to do here and is not offered as standard to any woman. Its also a screening test not a diagnostic test.

Exit poll: The post referendum thread. No electioneering.

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