Cheltenham 2018 - Day 1

NinetyTwoTeam · 12-03-2018 9:01pm

looking forward to seeing all those profits from 5th placed horses and those tenners being successfully used to pick champion race winners at decent prices then so. these specials ALWAYS work out great.

can always spot a lifetime loser when they are so bitter to 'fools getting roasted at Cheltenham'. if you really knew so much you'd know these specials are just to get you sucked in. they offer 5 places because that will get ppl to back more than one horse, stuff like that.

i never said i was an expert, but betting horses each way bc of an each way extra place and scrounging for tenner bets doesn't scream expert to me either. that's Granny at the grand national type carry on.

anyway im not here to fight, just trying to point out that you need to be realistic about the usefulness of special offers. if they fit something you already wanted to do, then fine. but a tenner in the champion Hurdle tomorrow is all but useless.

my prediction for day 1. Footpad, BD and AJ all win. the talk will be about how bad the bookies got bashed, in contrast to last year only one 'good thing' won on day 1 and he was 1/4. that actually hurts the books as punters get turned off too early.

then day 2 all the profits go on Samcro and the bookies get it back when he gets stuffed.

kiers47 · 12-03-2018 9:16pm

NinetyTwoTeam wrote: »

looking forward to seeing all those profits from 5th placed horses and those tenners being successfully used to pick champion race winners at decent prices then so. these specials ALWAYS work out great.

can always spot a lifetime loser when they are so bitter to 'fools getting roasted at Cheltenham'. if you really knew so much you'd know these specials are just to get you sucked in. they offer 5 places because that will get ppl to back more than one horse, stuff like that.

i never said i was an expert, but betting horses each way bc of an each way extra place and scrounging for tenner bets doesn't scream expert to me either. that's Granny at the grand national type carry on.

anyway im not here to fight, just trying to point out that you need to be realistic about the usefulness of special offers. if they fit something you already wanted to do, then fine. but a tenner in the champion Hurdle tomorrow is all but useless.

my prediction for day 1. Footpad, BD and AJ all win. the talk will be about how bad the bookies got bashed, in contrast to last year only one 'good thing' won on day 1 and he was 1/4. that actually hurts the books as punters get turned off too early.

then day 2 all the profits go on Samcro and the bookies get it back when he gets stuffed.

I'm not going to try to be condescending and tbh I've no opinion on the tenner free bet or whatever it is.
But the enhanced place terms that Bet365 offer on a regular basis are definitely not profitable for them. These books are renowned for being over broke for the bookies and you will usually struggle at finding a bookie on course offering 1/4 odds first 4 in a 16 runner handicap for this reason. 1/5 odds is a different story and would usually offset this.

These terms are absolutely exceptional value for the punter and for anyone that can get on with bet365 I would highly recommend perming up doubles on these markets. Where feasible.
Pick 3 or 4 from each race in some cross doubles.
It's probably an account closer but if you stick with it allowing for variance you certainly will not lose over a period of time.

BumperD · 12-03-2018 9:18pm

A lot of money pouring on Le Rocher generally 16/1 cd winner and loves heavy ground 5:30. Has solid form right through from its days in France I’ve had a good ew bet on it.

FatRat · 12-03-2018 9:31pm

NinetyTwoTeam wrote: »

looking forward to seeing all those profits from 5th placed horses and those tenners being successfully used to pick champion race winners at decent prices then so. these specials ALWAYS work out great.

can always spot a lifetime loser when they are so bitter to 'fools getting roasted at Cheltenham'. if you really knew so much you'd know these specials are just to get you sucked in. they offer 5 places because that will get ppl to back more than one horse, stuff like that.

i never said i was an expert, but betting horses each way bc of an each way extra place and scrounging for tenner bets doesn't scream expert to me either. that's Granny at the grand national type carry on.

anyway im not here to fight, just trying to point out that you need to be realistic about the usefulness of special offers. if they fit something you already wanted to do, then fine. but a tenner in the champion Hurdle tomorrow is all but useless.

my prediction for day 1. Footpad, BD and AJ all win. the talk will be about how bad the bookies got bashed, in contrast to last year only one 'good thing' won on day 1 and he was 1/4. that actually hurts the books as punters get turned off too early.

then day 2 all the profits go on Samcro and the bookies get it back when he gets stuffed.

Christ are you really gonna make me do this.

I'm putting more than a 10er down with 365 tomorrow and that is largely due to the value they offer - which is always superior to competitive bookmakers (barring maybe Skybet). It just so happens they are also giving me a 10 free bet, simply for betting with them, which I was going to do anyway. To say a 10er free bet on the champion hurdle is all but useless just proves what little you know about betting. First off if the favourite is guaranteed to win then great! I'll back him with the 10er and make a guaranteed 5er I didn't have before - a 5er that cost me nothing and didn't inconvenience me whatsoever. But being more realistic, the only market available is not the win market you know? In fact you can actually back a totally different race whereby the favourite isn't even included... amazing!

Also bookies do not make massive margins as some might suspect. Even by going 1/4 odds on races that should be 1/5 odds, bet365 are taking a hit with the value they're offering the customer. They do not have to do this as the industry standard is 1/5. A disciplined well punter (not saying I am) is absolutely laughing at the fact that they offer these e/w odds simply because they're working on such tight margins that they'll take any extra value they can find. I understand that these offers are here to attract customers, but they did not need to attract me, I was always going to be betting with them anyway.For someone who doesn't know what they're talking about to be on such a high horse (no pun intended) is quite funny. And lets be clear I was not bitter to any 'fool getting roasted'.

Anyway, took Slate House at 25/1 and I reckon he has a very valid each way shout, accounting for Summerville boy a few months over course and distance on soft. I think 25/1 is massively wrong and can see him heading off around the 16/1 mark. There is some decent value in this supreme race in my opinion, largely due to Getabird still not reaching his correct price of around 3/1.

Gringo180 · 12-03-2018 9:35pm

Bet 365 are the best online bookie there is. No doubt about it.

kiers47 · 12-03-2018 9:37pm

More added to my previous point on each way terms and I'm not sure why I'm bothering but this may help someone. I see a lot of people quoting prices of just their favorite bookie. It's great that people want to be loyal customers. But for good sake shop around people. Where allowed that is. The value around has never been better especially if you are a €0-€20 punter.

handsfree2 · 12-03-2018 9:51pm

posturingpat wrote: »

After all the excitement in the weeks leading up i'm rather disinterested now(in relevant terms) can see all kinds of funny results happening over the week and the form not being worth much at all

I know what you're saying but come on, it's Cheltenham.

The winter form will hold up so it's probably more straight forward in the graded races. I'll be betting in fewer races but having larger bets on the ones I do go for.

The handicaps are a minefield now IMO.

Slattsy · 12-03-2018 9:56pm

Getabird aside, the Supreme is extremely open. Personally i cant have Kalashnikov at that price.

But i've been drawn to Debuchet at 28/1 5 places with Bet365. A very good bumper horse, handles Cheltenham, will go on the ground and he always striked me as wanting a bit of a trip. He wasnt a million miles behind Palomo Blue (12s) lto and i think he's worth a play.

WickIow Brave · 12-03-2018 10:03pm

handsfree2 wrote: »

I know what you're saying but come on, it's Cheltenham.

The winter form will hold up so it's probably more straight forward in the graded races. I'll be betting in fewer races but having larger bets on the ones I do go for.

The handicaps are a minefield now IMO.

Spot on, fella. This is exactly how I feel aswell.

In terms of the graded races I think it will be a very memorable festival. Just cos it's 5.5 on the going stick instead of 6.5 doesn't mean it's going to be sh*t.

carq · 12-03-2018 10:03pm

Rathvinden is getting a lot of love here

But his age goes against the trends

Last 14/15 winners were 6,7 or 8 I believe so a ten year old, I ruled him out

kiers47 · 12-03-2018 10:07pm

carq wrote: »

Rathvinden is getting a lot of love here

But his age goes against the trends

Last 14/15 winners were 6,7 or 8 I believe so a ten year old, I ruled him out

Ive no strong opinion on the race but I'd imagine that this is because there are probably a minimal amount of animals over 9 running in the race due to it being a novice event. So I wouldn't think it's an entirely relevant trend.

akelly02 · 12-03-2018 10:08pm

Just watched all of st calvados races. He’s a ****ing monster. I’m worried

Footpad backer here

gazza1 · 12-03-2018 10:29pm

akelly02 wrote: »

Just watched all of st calvados races. He’s a ****ing monster. I’m worried

Footpad backer here

5yr olds have a poor record in the race since the allowance was dropped in '08 but yes he is a beast.
One for the future

Gavin "shels" · 12-03-2018 10:32pm

Slattsy wrote: »

You should know better for a start.

Mon Bohs!

Awh you were after the bites from the blow-ins (I kid lads) :pac: :pac:

"Big Club" :rolleyes:

I'll have a nap for each race now please Slattsy!

akelly02 · 12-03-2018 10:38pm

gazza1 wrote: »

5yr olds have a poor record in the race since the allowance was dropped in '08 but yes he is a beast.
One for the future

Just hope footpad can keep tabs on him.

He jumps very low I can see him counting one pretty hard

Gavin "shels" · 12-03-2018 10:40pm

Slattsy wrote: »

But i've been drawn to Debuchet at 28/1 5 places with Bet365. A very good bumper horse, handles Cheltenham, will go on the ground and he always striked me as wanting a bit of a trip. He wasnt a million miles behind Palomo Blue (12s) lto and i think he's worth a play.

Having a small ew on Debuchet too for the 5 places. I'm on Paloma Blue too. :P

Francie Barrett · 12-03-2018 10:54pm

Ignore all the guff you hear, the going stick reading is 5.3 which is proper heavy ground with the possibility that it might even get worse with another 10mm of rain expected to come. First race or two might not be too bad, but by the end of the day, the ground is going to be fairly cut up, which should make the final race of the day interesting. Think Rocklander in that one might just be one of the last still going and would fancy it to be there or thereabouts. 33/1 best price.

handsfree2 · 12-03-2018 10:56pm

akelly02 wrote: »

Just watched all of st calvados races. He’s a ****ing monster. I’m worried

Footpad backer here

I put a max bet on footpad.

I just can't see Saint Calvados finishing. I don't like his jumping style for Cheltenham, he's too low and he's going to trip up on the downhill section.

dave81 · 12-03-2018 11:04pm

I'm getting more confident on No Comment, even the nags 20l behind him the last day beating very decent horses. Every line of form works out (until tomorrow).

I said earlier, Jack Kennedy to win last ew bet.

Other bets: Getabird. Unoriginal and I tried find reasons not to back him but remained have too many q"s. Debuchet could be a good tip by previous punters to run into a place.

I like course form so I can't get away from Single farm payment, his pu last day shook my confidence, but no reason why others who ran against him should finish ahead this year. Pipe had a bottom weight and he could be outsider of the day. sneaky, sneaky little fellow at the bottom.

Good luck

Motivator · 12-03-2018 11:04pm

handsfree2 wrote: »

I put a max bet on footpad.

I just can't see Saint Calvados finishing. I don't like his jumping style for Cheltenham, he's too low and he's going to trip up on the downhill section.

Hey, can you give me a loan of that crystal ball of yours?

Earendil · 12-03-2018 11:05pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Getabird aside, the Supreme is extremely open. Personally i cant have Kalashnikov at that price.

But i've been drawn to Debuchet at 28/1 5 places with Bet365. A very good bumper horse, handles Cheltenham, will go on the ground and he always striked me as wanting a bit of a trip. He wasnt a million miles behind Palomo Blue (12s) lto and i think he's worth a play.

I took Debuchet at 50s on Sunday with BV when the ground started to turn to ****e.

Don’t know why I’m talking to you Slattsy, you’re just a selfish pig that wants the meeting rearranged to suit your bets! :pac:

Johner · 12-03-2018 11:06pm

1.30 - Mengli Khan 14/1 e/w.

Price looks too big, should enjoy the hill.

2.10 Footpad

Can't see him being beat.

2.50 Cogry 16/1

One who'll love the conditions at a price.

3.30 Mick Jazz 40/1 e/w

Hopefully pick up the pieces late on and sneak a place, cant see Buveur D'air being beat.

4.10 Will probably throw Apples Jade into a double with Footpad.

Nothing for the last two.

Earendil · 12-03-2018 11:08pm

Motivator wrote: »

Hey, can you give me a loan of that crystal ball of yours?

mod edit: <snip>
Please don't insult other posters

Slattsy · 12-03-2018 11:14pm

Earendil wrote: »

I took Debuchet at 50s on Sunday with BV when the ground started to turn to ****e.

Don’t know why I’m talking to you Slattsy, you’re just a selfish pig that wants the meeting rearranged to suit your bets! :pac:

Good spot. I'd no real angle on the race up until this evening, having a proper look at the form. Hopefully it can sneak in for us.

I'm still hoping it will be rearranged. The good ground God's are with me! I've sent a few emails to the BHA, Simon Claisse and Donald Trump.

dave81 · 12-03-2018 11:15pm

I'm looking forward to the rage that is unleashed on the first aftertimer tomortow. It will be epic!! Forget about the opening cheer, this will be the highlight!!

Motivator · 12-03-2018 11:19pm

Earendil wrote: »

Listen man, nothing against you...even with your mental ‘Cheltenham right handed’ nonsense the other day.... but do you not think you’ve made a bollix enough of yourself on here for a while?

What’s with the aggression? Can you not take a joke?

A simple mistake, quickly corrected, was the only thing you could throw back at me regarding the point I was making. Nice one!

Enjoy the week, I hope you find a winner or two. Hopefully it cheers you up a bit.

handsfree2 · 12-03-2018 11:22pm

Motivator wrote: »

Hey, can you give me a loan of that crystal ball of yours?

It's just my opinion, we'll see tomorrow. I'm going to place lay him.

WickIow Brave · 12-03-2018 11:24pm

HAD GETABIRD GET THE **** INNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!

Motivator · 12-03-2018 11:27pm

handsfree2 wrote: »

It's just my opinion, we'll see tomorrow. I'm going to place lay him.

I think he’s so quick and efficient over his fences he could be very hard to beat tomorrow. Haven’t had a bet in the race, yet. I don’t see any value in any of the top three at the moment and that could change tomorrow but I wouldn’t be quick in ruling out Saint Calvados. He’s a serious horse.

HarshOstrich · 12-03-2018 11:27pm

I was thinking of doing the favourite Acca tomorrow with apples jade, buveur d’air,getabird and footpad, the weak link tho I think is footpad,petit mouchoir probably has the beating of him with a clear round judged on his last run and all previous hurdle runs v footpad.footpad would have been at his best the last day where PM was coming back from a set back and hit a fence or two quite hard and wasn’t giving a tough race(wasn’t even hit with whip).
It was also only PM 2nd run over fences
So I’m expecting a big run from him, footpad is definetly not banker material here, and on the balance of there careers so far PM is the better horse he just hasn’t had a chance to prove it over fences yet but there will be no excuses tomorrow .

5.30 I like testify as he will love the ground is a front runner and keeps finding when challenged

Gold present in the 2.50

No comment 4.50

Cheltenham 2018 - Day 1

Comments