Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Options
1…7172747677…80

Comments

  • Options
    #2192
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    gabeeg wrote: »
    What could Met Eireann possibly have to suggest westerlies?

    There's zero evidence for that on any model. They're just occasionally crap

    For their week ahead,they reflect the latest ecm
    No effort is usually put into their week ahead other than that
    On a rare occasion they will talk about uncertainty
    As most of the suggestions for cold is Sunday onwards the forecast today from them is not surprising
    They don’t do speculation unlike bbc or uk met office forecasters
    So I wouldn’t worry too much tbh yet


  • Options
    #2193
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    I wasn't worrying. I was bristling with anger.


  • Options
    #2194
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I for one selfishly hope we don't get a pure easterly, but rather a northeasterly. An easterly will eliminate most of the east coast from say Meath down to Wexford from snow showers due to the short sea fetch over from Wales. Meath/Louth and Waterford/Cork would do well, on the other hand.

    Or if we get an easterly then hopefully we'll get some embedded lows tracking westwards over France to pep up the activity.


  • Options
    #2195
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Easterly,proper ones do tend to include Dublin in their Southern most shower fetch coverage as they start fetching in Liverpool bay
    I used live in Dundrum for instance and remember there in 1986 either January or February showers packing in
    Whereas much less so back in Arklow until a shallow low developed in the Irish Sea

    Anyway tonight in my opinion underlines why a thread is not yet warranted for this
    I’d expect enough of a filling of the bedroom pot by Thursday though for one or a postmortem


  • Options
    #2196
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Well what happened to not going totally over the top on run to run variations ?


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #2197
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Stratosphere charts updated to the 17th February.

    EbL3J8R.gif

    8g9J8ki.gif

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • Options
    #2198
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Well what happened to not going totally over the top on run to run variations ?

    Well to be fair,this ECM run wasn’t a variation it was a cancelation
    I do not think it’s going to be right


  • Options
    #2199
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Well to be fair,this ECM run wasn’t a variation it was a cancelation
    I do not think it’s going to be right

    The beast is about 400km too south at over 200 hrs, just a wobble at that range. Bigger picture is generally still the same. Hardly a cancellation?


  • Options
    #2200
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Rougies wrote: »
    The beast is about 400km too south at over 200 hrs, just a wobble at that range. Bigger picture is generally still the same. Hardly a cancellation?

    Going from the 00z solution to what’s on offer tonight is certainly an ECM cancelation because the promised goods are not delivered by that model tonight
    I did say I don’t think it’s right
    No reason other than gut feeling for that
    But I also think a few more days and we’ll know anyway
    I was serious about having a ‘will we ever watch the strat again’ thread if nothing comes of it’s warming


  • Options
    #2201
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Well to be fair,this ECM run wasn’t a variation it was a cancelation
    I do not think it’s going to be right

    It’s a variation of it’s last run , which was a variation of the one before that


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #2202
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    An easterly will eliminate most of the east coast from say Meath down to Wexford from snow showers due to the short sea fetch over from Wales.

    That depends on the instability. Showers do come on to the coast in direct easterlies. Granted unlikely to penetrate far inland.

    The shadows are the isle of man and holy head. If there is something to avoid it's those two rain shadows.

    A southeasterly direction is worst in my opinion. Great for the southeast coast of the north which can get buried though!


  • Options
    #2203
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    It’s a variation of it’s last run , which was a variation of the one before that

    Which was a variation of the one in 2002 yeah :p
    It’s result is a cancelatation of the proposed easterly though
    It’s next variation may be a cancelation of tonight’s cancelation

    I’ve found a simple explanation on the confusion on YouTube,with a reference even to 2012 at the end ;):p;)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BHQT3Omqtw


  • Options
    #2204
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    They don’t do speculation unlike bbc or uk met office forecasters
    So I wouldn’t worry too much tbh yet

    They don't do speculation if there are indications of much colder weather, as they don't want to get burnt so to speak. I have noticed over the years they will happily speculate(look further ahead) if we are in a prolonged cold or wet outlook and there are signs of warmer or drier weather.


  • Options
    #2205
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    They don't do speculation if there are indications of much colder weather, as they don't want to get burnt so to speak. I have noticed over the years they will happily speculate(look further ahead) if we are in a prolonged cold or wet outlook and there are signs of warmer or drier weather.

    Yeah but they said a BBQ Summer in 2009 and 2009-10 to be a mild Winter. :P

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • Options
    #2206
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yeah but they said a BBQ Summer in 2009 and 2009-10 to be a mild Winter. :P

    Yeah and i remember the 2009- 2010 cold period, they were only too happy to go beyond 10 days that December to mention a possible end to the cold weather. You would think they would extend the same courtesy to cold lovers at the moment:D


  • Options
    #2207
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pad199207 wrote: »
    An out of this world 18z. I’d say some of us are finding it very hard to not get excited now!

    Not really. Whilst I'm impressed it has been brought forward with the higher chance of convection to the east as early as Friday, it's still not going to get me hyped. If this continues to stay consistent towards mid-week, I might.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • Options
    #2208
    Soccarboy11
    Registered Users Posts: 579 ✭✭✭Soccarboy11


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/965358609315090432

    Well, maybe this is why I sat on my couch all day watching TV and reading Boards posts :p


  • Options
    #2209
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Not really. Whilst I'm impressed it has been brought forward with the higher chance of convection to the east as early as Friday, it's still not going to get me hyped. If this continues to stay consistent towards mid-week, I might.

    I know, but it's hard not to get excited when you see - 18 upper air in the north sea, and -13 uppers being depicted right to the west coast of Ireland.

    I have a decision to make. To book off a few days or not?


  • Options
    #2210
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I know, but it's hard not to get excited when you see - 18 upper air in the north sea, and -13 uppers being depicted right to the west coast of Ireland.

    Until you realise the date of arrival.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • Options
    #2211
    Soccarboy11
    Registered Users Posts: 579 ✭✭✭Soccarboy11


    If this came off, the image of the snow over Cork City from JCX BXC, I don't think you'd hear from us Corkonians about a snow shield for an entire month! ( From the FI thread)


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #2212
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Until you realise the date of arrival.

    You are wise well beyond your years syranbruen. But the thrill of the chase is exciting too and these charts are very rare especially with the background signal backup so I can understand the excitement, even knowing there's a good chance of "mild" disappointment. May as well enjoy the model output without being too pessimistic.


  • Options
    #2213
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Rougies wrote: »
    You are wise well beyond your years syranbruen. But the thrill of the chase is exciting too and these charts are very rare especially with the background signal backup so I can understand the excitement, even knowing there's a good chance of "mild" disappointment. May as well enjoy the model output without being too pessimistic.

    yes, if they were to come off we'd be looking back and marvelling at these charts in years to come, so, as you say, it's hard not to get carried way with what's being depicted.


  • Options
    #2214
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Of course the ECM could verify at day 8 and stall in that position such that Munster gets its own mini ice age and the rest of the country read about it here!

    Seriously though, I too think Ive seen this movie before. A Jan 1987 type event was a 3-1 shot, now its 10-1 I fear.....

    The ecm this morning is showing a form horse solution
    It’s not denying the SSW influence it has that
    It’s where it moves the high is key and it’s been able to work out a form horse solution for it
    It’s often right with form horse solutions in the end
    We’ll know by Thursday
    If it’s verified but with more attempts at Ireland out at 240+ I will lose interest in the mirage


  • Options
    #2215
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    ME is now forecasting cool rather than cold. For later this week. Temps of 6 to 8 C. Some rain showers.

    13C forecast for today!

    Has the cold been pushed to a further time period, or have things drastically changed?


  • Options
    #2216
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Weather ahead looks perfect to me, looks like plenty of dry and sunny weather. Bring it on


  • Options
    #2217
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    GFS sticking to its guns at +96hrs -

    gfsnh-0-96.png?6


  • Options
    #2218
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,127 ✭✭✭pad199207


    GFS 06z Cold is primed for westward journey towards us! That is potentially historic in East Europe.

    <blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/4yTj2"><a href="//imgur.com/4yTj2"></a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


  • Options
    #2219
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Gfs has the easterly nearly affecting Barbados at times it pushes so far west :D
    That’s not going to happen
    I’d have my doubts about modeling that’s prone to spurts of super exaggeration


  • Options
    #2220
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,738 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    hopefully we will know by Friday what way this is going. I feel we're still as far away from the lightly outcome as we were last week. We will either end up on the dry and settled edge of it or a brief few days of wintry weather. I doubt we're going to see anything remotely like 2010.

    At least much of the country gets a chance to dry out this week. I ain't buying a ticket unless there are epic charts within the 36 hour time frame, we've been burnt far too many times in the past, even in the reliable time frame.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #2221
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    pad199207 wrote: »
    GFS 06z Cold is primed for westward journey towards us! That is potentially historic in East Europe.

    Is eastern Europe definitely going to get a very cold period even if Ireland escapes it?


Advertisement