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Winter 2017-18: Discussion

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    #2162
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The strong negative NAO signal continues.

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/965131042804981760

    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/965247217861906432

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #2163
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Have to disagree there. There is not a thing wrong with Mild and Dry in Winter if theres no hope of cold and snow! :D:D:D

    Maybe I'm a bit baffled by February 2017 :P because of it being very dull, mild, wet with an easterly that was very weak and not that cold at all. Instead, all the easterly brought was cloud to the east with drizzle.

    I did give some praise to 2016-17 at times for being nice in parts of December and January.

    Let's not forget the phantom easterlies too of mid-December and the New Year on the models.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #2164
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Oh speaking of which, on one hand, I'm not looking forward to it because imagining all the traffic the weather forum will have.

    Ophelia was a nightmare with traffic on here!

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #2165
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    There's numerous precedents for easterlies in general than specifically strong or weak ones.

    Sorry, I missed you post earlier, thanks for that.

    I've never really experienced a proper easterly, was too young to take note of the one in '91 and don't think we've had a real one since. Some of the charts look fairly spectacular but its just hard to gauge what it'd actually be like


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    #2166
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Sorry, I missed you post earlier, thanks for that.

    I've never really experienced a proper easterly, was too young to take note of the one in '91 and don't think we've had a real one since. Some of the charts look fairly spectacular but its just hard to gauge what it'd actually be like

    This from January 2010 is the closest I know of to a beasterly here but all the cold air initially came from a northerly or northeasterly before the winds veered to an easterly on this day.

    NOAA_1_2010010918_2.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #2167
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Rather chilly on Thursday on the GFS 12z. The beast is on its way!

    H2BngYZ.png

    vGHUwlS.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #2168
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I just noticed this very intriguing coincidence. At the beginning of February 1991 when we were in the bitter easterly, the eastern US had record breaking warmth! The same places are expected to have as equal warmth this coming week and the next week after at the same time of us going into the freezer.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #2169
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    I annoyingly just don't remember the 1991 event for some reason.
    How long did it snow for?

    GFS is suggesting 5 days of more or less constant snowfall for the East. And that's just so far.


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    #2170
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,249 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Are these charts showing the whole country going into the freezer or just the east??


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    #2171
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,755 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I just noticed this very intriguing coincidence. At the beginning of February 1991 when we were in the bitter easterly, the eastern US had record breaking warmth! The same places are expected to have as equal warmth this coming week and the next week after at the same time of us going into the freezer.


    I remember watching that forecast Live as it aired. Our reception of BBC1 was never great back in those days with a snowy analogue reception at best that often turned black and white!

    I knew something serious was up with that forecast, however BBC never really illustrated the strength of the snow over eastern Ireland or Northern Ireland too well. Had at least a week off school due to that easterly. I think it was also the last proper easterly/winter from the 1980s era. I think it was 2000 before we saw proper snow again after that event.


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    #2172
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    leahyl wrote: »
    Are these charts showing the whole country going into the freezer or just the east??

    Oh the whole country, absolutely.


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    #2173
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Coming to a cinema near you soon!

    alI1Q5i.jpg

    James Madden - 10/10; would totally watch again.
    Nathan Rao - 10/10; best movie ever.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #2174
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    If some of these charts fruit
    The only tools needed to forecast snow will be radar and satellite and a map of any disturbances
    Anything else would be surplus to requirements even a thermometer


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    #2175
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    The beast from the east is unlikely to deliver snow to the western two thirds of the country.

    It will be cold and dry,nothing exciting about that.

    Oh gosh I sound just like those posters from the east during December , January and February.


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    #2176
    km79
    Registered Users Posts: 48,150 ✭✭✭✭km79


    squarecircles wrote: »
    The beast from the east is unlikely to deliver snow to the western two thirds of the country.

    It will be cold and dry,nothing exciting about that.

    Oh gosh I sound just like those posters from the east during December and February.

    Cold and DRY
    I’m very excited at the prospect of a few dry days


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    #2177
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    squarecircles wrote: »
    The beast from the east is unlikely to deliver snow to the western two thirds of the country.

    It will be cold and dry,nothing exciting about that.

    Oh gosh I sound just like those posters from the east during December and February.

    Welcome to our world squarecircles :P.

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    #2178
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,249 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    What’s the western 2/3rds of the country??


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    #2179
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,136 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    leahyl wrote: »
    What’s the western 2/3rds of the country??

    Everything that's not the Eastern 1/3rd :)


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    #2180
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Jean just put up a chart for next weekend with southerlies and fronts approaching from the west..,


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    #2181
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    leahyl wrote: »
    What’s the western 2/3rds of the country??

    M50 ,the pale, dublin 4 media,Dublin postcode rosary area etc.

    I.e not in my back yard,we want services but I we want to live in a field,Joe Scobbie lost down the country in regional Ireland that can't have light rail systems or densified urban centres with services our population densities,badly tarmacked drives and hair on our cheeks.


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    #2182
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Jean just put up a chart for next weekend with southerlies and fronts approaching from the west..,

    UKMO did warn that in their 30 day forecast.

    Is this where it all falls apart?

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #2183
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,136 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    UKMO did warn that in their 30 day forecast.

    Is this where it all falls apart?

    Relax! It's one run!


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    #2184
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    UKMO did warn that in their 30 day forecast.

    Is this where it all falls apart?

    Quite possibly
    Better to get it over quick
    We’ll have the ‘will we ever watch the strat temp again’ thread up instead of an event thread


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    #2185
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    UKMO did warn that in their 30 day forecast.

    Is this where it all falls apart?

    The first sign of the rot.
    Jerry Murphy must be on smelling salts with the charts as they are.Might be a good time for him to take anual leave to Genoa,i believe there will be a nice low with soft rain there next week,not much room for schleet showers in this set up.

    Meanwhile Jean is anticipating wearing her tinfoil spandex dress next week from circa December 2010


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    #2186
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I just noticed this very intriguing coincidence. At the beginning of February 1991 when we were in the bitter easterly, the eastern US had record breaking warmth! The same places are expected to have as equal warmth this coming week and the next week after at the same time of us going into the freezer.

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/965282158746185728


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    #2187
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    What could Met Eireann possibly have to suggest westerlies?

    There's zero evidence for that on any model. They're just occasionally crap


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    #2188
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,136 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    gabeeg wrote: »
    What could Met Eireann possibly have to suggest westerlies?

    There's zero evidence for that on any model. They're just occasionally crap

    No hint of westerlies, it's a easterly turning into a southerly as it reaches Ireland, as all charts were suggesting.


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    #2189
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Relax! It's one run!

    Just again, sick of the disappointment.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #2190
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    leahyl wrote: »
    What’s the western 2/3rds of the country??

    And cork naturally, because,SnowShield. Even
    In fantasy island (sigh) but we breached it once this year!!! Maybe again?


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    #2191
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    gabeeg wrote: »
    What could Met Eireann possibly have to suggest westerlies?

    There's zero evidence for that on any model. They're just occasionally crap

    It's usually a sign somethings up,they go into ultra conservative,coy, odd default meltdown mode when the Irish climate goes into pigmuck reversal mode,jerry Murphy has probably locked himself in a broom cupboard with the model output,Jean Byrne is trying on spandex dresses in anticipation for some serious forecasts next week,Joanna Donnelly is working on her serious post apocalyptic Ophelia face ,while Evelyn is psyching herself up in the jack's..."let's do this s*it."

    Let's hope their Siberian Vulcan airmass wing graphics return promptly and...

    May God have mercy on our souls.


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