Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

prawnsambo · 08-02-2018 06:34PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

Scotland to win -5 at evens is my only bet for the weekend based on my very scientific analysis:

1) French teams don't travel.
2) Scotland are pissed off after Cardiff.
3) No slam for the French and they will lose interest.

God loves a trier.

All of the above except:

1) Scotland still don't have a pack
2) France will be pretty pleased that they didn't concede a try and scored one
3) The French like a chamopionship win and a grand chelem isn't a given for anyone.

Bit of doubt creeping in there?

joseywhales · 10-02-2018 08:32PM

France @80/1 to win the championship

Stranger things have happened i.e. Wales last championship win after a day one home loss.
They have a bp and England in paris.

V unlikely but 80/1????

FACECUTTR · 10-02-2018 08:34PM

joseywhales wrote: »

France @80/1 to win the championship

Stranger things have happened i.e. Wales last championship win after a day one home loss.
They have a bp and England in paris.

V unlikely but 80/1????

It's worth a fiver.

Del.Monte · 10-02-2018 08:40PM

FACECUTTR wrote: »

It's worth a fiver.

It's not worth tuppence and after tomorrow at Murrayfield even less.

joseywhales · 10-02-2018 08:49PM

Enough 5 Euro bets on well priced outsiders and you can have an entertaining time at least. I'm hardly betting as a revenue stream

sydthebeat · 13-02-2018 11:02PM

Wales +10 looks like good value right now

13-02-2018 11:13PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

Wales +10 looks like good value right now

I can't believe the spread and how short Ireland are, 2/9. That's unbackable imo.

The real mccoy 91 · 14-02-2018 12:21PM

Any details on exactly how long henshaw will be out for? All I can see is the rest of the 6 nations but sarries +6 against Leinster is suddenly looking very attractive I don't see it being 6 on the day

thomond2006 · 20-02-2018 01:22PM

Benetton are +1 at home to Connacht on PP. Given the respective recent form that seems like a fantastic bet.

aloooof · 20-02-2018 01:25PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Benetton are +1 at home to Connacht on PP. Given the respective recent form that seems like a fantastic bet.

I'd say if you'd been backing the Italian teams to beat the spread all year, you'd have a handsome profit.

sydthebeat · 20-02-2018 01:35PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Benetton are +1 at home to Connacht on PP. Given the respective recent form that seems like a fantastic bet.

agreed, and i think kings +38 is actually value as well.

20-02-2018 04:30PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

agreed, and i think kings +38 is actually value as well.

Leinster are going to have a joke of a team out so yeah potentially.

thomond2006 · 21-02-2018 10:44AM

sydthebeat wrote: »

agreed, and i think kings +38 is actually value as well.

Yeah I've plumped for Treviso to win and Kings +38.

I still can't believe Wales are still available at +9. If I had no stake in the game I would be lumping on.

aloooof · 23-03-2018 12:16PM

Got Leinster to top their conference at 5/6, considering hedging, Scarlets are currently 11/2. Any thoughts?

Current ranking is:
Leinster 64
Scarlets 61

Remaining fixtures:
Leinster:
Ospreys (a)
Zebre: (h)
Bennetton Treviso (h)
Connacht (a)

Scarlets:
Munster (a)
Glasgow (h)
Edinburgh (a)
Dragons (a)

thomond2006 · 23-03-2018 12:21PM

aloooof wrote: »

Got Leinster to top their conference at 5/6, considering hedging, Scarlets are currently 11/2. Any thoughts?

Current ranking is:
Leinster 64
Scarlets 61

Remaining fixtures:
Leinster:
Ospreys (a) - 4 points
Zebre: (h) - 5 points
Bennetton Treviso (h) - 5 points
Connacht (a) - 1 point

Scarlets:
Munster (a) - 1 point
Glasgow (h) - 4 points
Edinburgh (a) - 4 points
Dragons (a) - 5 points

Leinster to finish on 79 points with Scarlets on 75 points. Scarlets have to win their remaining four games to have any chance IMO. Leinster will definitely win at Ospreys and at home to the Italians. Connacht away is a potential trap game.

aloooof · 23-03-2018 12:23PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Current ranking is:
Leinster 64
Scarlets 61

Remaining fixtures:
Leinster:
Ospreys (a) - 4 points
Zebre: (h) - 5 points
Bennetton Treviso (h) - 5 points
Connacht (a) - 1 point

Scarlets:
Munster (a) - 1 point
Glasgow (h) - 4 points
Edinburgh (a) - 4 points
Dragons (a) - 5 points

Leinster to finish on 79 points with Scarlets on 75 points.

A lot hinges on this weekend. Scarlets beat us in Thomond last year and we've been in worse form of late.

Buer · 23-03-2018 12:27PM

aloooof wrote: »

Got Leinster to top their conference at 5/6, considering hedging, Scarlets are currently 11/2. Any thoughts?

Current ranking is:
Leinster 64
Scarlets 61

Remaining fixtures:
Leinster:
Ospreys (a)
Zebre: (h)
Bennetton Treviso (h)
Connacht (a)

Scarlets:
Munster (a)
Glasgow (h)
Edinburgh (a)
Dragons (a)

They're decent odds on Scarlets but I can't see Leinster blowing it from here. Aside from the Dragons, I can't see the Scarlets getting a BP win in any game. Even if they win against Munster, Glasgow and Edinburgh, I'd expect Leinster to have a 5 point cushion going into the final game.

Leinster really should win their next 3 games. We'll see what teams are named shortly for the Ospreys match but I'd expect Leinster to have a fairly good side out but the Ospreys are likely to be without those from the Welsh 23, I would imagine.

thomond2006 · 26-03-2018 09:32AM

Racing 92 are +5 on PP, tempting.

thomond2006 · 03-04-2018 10:53AM

Benetton -7 at home to Dragons. I'd like to think they will cover -7 comfortably.
Edinburgh -5 at home to Ulster is tempting also.

sydthebeat · 03-04-2018 11:21AM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Benetton -7 at home to Treviso. I'd like to think they will cover -7 comfortably.
Edinburgh -5 at home to Ulster is tempting also.

theyve a -7 handicap when playing themselves?? thats not really fair

:D:D

aloooof · 04-04-2018 03:53PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Edinburgh -5 at home to Ulster is tempting also.

I've backed this, seems too good a price. They've won their last 5 matches and have beaten the spread in each:

Connacht (a) by 10
Munster (h) by 5
Dragons (a) by 8
Ulster (a) - (won in Kingspan by a point, but not sure of the spread. Would assume Ulster were favourites at home)
Leinster (h) by 10

Credit to Cockerill, he's putting some results together.

sydthebeat · 16-04-2018 08:14AM

Champions cup semi final spreads are out

Leinster - 11
Racing - 4

I think leinster could be about 4 points too generous there.

Racing is a hard one to call. Munster isnt a team that suffer too much from away day gitters, but I think they need everyone playing at 100% to even have a chance here. I think the spread is just about right, maybe it could push to 5 or 6.

Del.Monte · 21-04-2018 06:45AM

Surely the bet of the weekend on PP - Johnny Sexton to score a try, conversion, penalty and drop goal @ 100/1. I see Halfpenny is on the same odds but sure we all know Scarlets are going to be nilled.

Del.Monte · 21-04-2018 08:48PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

Surely the bet of the weekend on PP - Johnny Sexton to score a try, conversion, penalty and drop goal @ 100/1. I see Halfpenny is on the same odds but sure we all know Scarlets are going to be nilled.

Damn it, but Johnny nearly did it - just the drop goal was missing.

sydthebeat · 26-04-2018 03:57PM

bet of the weekend

ulster +2

Buer · 26-04-2018 04:05PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

bet of the weekend

ulster +2

I'd wait to see Munster's team before touching that. I'd imagine they'll have all of their bench from last week starting anyway which includes lads like Zebo, Ryan, Marshall, Cronin etc.

If they throw in one or two others who are eager to shake off last week and want to play, I could see them having enough to win.

prawnsambo · 26-04-2018 04:31PM

Buer wrote: »

I'd wait to see Munster's team before touching that. I'd imagine they'll have all of their bench from last week starting anyway which includes lads like Zebo, Ryan, Marshall, Cronin etc.

If they throw in one or two others who are eager to shake off last week and want to play, I could see them having enough to win.

Always wise to wait for the teams. I've been caught out once. Never again.

sydthebeat · 26-04-2018 04:47PM

Buer wrote: »

I'd wait to see Munster's team before touching that. I'd imagine they'll have all of their bench from last week starting anyway which includes lads like Zebo, Ryan, Marshall, Cronin etc.

If they throw in one or two others who are eager to shake off last week and want to play, I could see them having enough to win.

A strong munster selection will push the spread out.

Yes munster might want to get back on the horse here, but with literally nothing to play for and Ulster, who should be foaming at the mouth to chalk up points here.
I can see munster starting with Hart and jj and resting their starting back row from last week, and possibly second row too. They'll probably start earls zebo and Wotton as their back three and that's where the danger will be.

Del.Monte · 26-04-2018 07:15PM

I'm on Munster -2 @ 10/11 as surely another defeat is unthinkable?

Also on Racing to win against Leinster @ 11/4 in the final.

prawnsambo · 26-04-2018 07:18PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

I'm on Munster -2 @ 10/11 as surely another defeat is unthinkable?

Also on Racing to win against Leinster @ 11/4 in the final.

I need to check the charter, but I'm pretty sure that betting against your own province is a bannable offence.

And there's a reason why the odds are good...

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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