Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

aloooof

Saracens 28 points favourites vs Bath at the Allianz, surprised the spread is that big.

Leinstertomas

Benneton, Zebre and Connacht all to win at 60/1. Worth a quid

thomond2006

Friday:
Edinburgh -14 vs Cheetahs
Glasgow -25 vs Zebre
Ulster -8 vs Connacht

Saturday:
Scarlets -8 vs Ospreys
Dragons +5 vs Cardiff
Leinster -9 vs Munster
Benetton -19 vs Kings

Cardiff -5 stands out here.

sydthebeat

treviso -19 looks tasty

they are well able to put up a big score (45+) at home... just wonder if their defense can hold tight enough to less than 3 tries

Juwwi

There isn't one + cap that overly stands out to me as a good bet .

thomond2006

I took Munster +9 against my better judgement.

sydthebeat

Ulster spread dropping...... connacht now +7

Del.Monte

Gone with a famous Munster win at 3/1 - easy money.

Del.Monte

Del.Monte wrote: »

Gone with a famous Munster win at 3/1 - easy money.

Oh well, but for the third week in a row I'm well ahead on PP - thanks to Aaron Smith this time.

Elvisjuice

Del.Monte wrote: »

Oh well, but for the third week in a row I'm well ahead on PP - thanks to Aaron Smith this time.

how are you well ahead with 3 losing bets ?

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

treviso -19 looks tasty

they are well able to put up a big score (45+) at home... just wonder if their defense can hold tight enough to less than 3 tries

Happy days...

Great day all round actually.
I don't like after timing but I was delighted with my Ross Byrne MOTM @8/1
and James Lowe @7/1 first try scorer.

And put onto that singles on treviso - 19 and Cardiff - 5 and a double on those two.

Del.Monte

Elvisjuice wrote: »

how are you well ahead with 3 losing bets ?

It's not really that complicated surely - it depends how much was on each bet. I am up more than 30%.

sydthebeat

hard to see exeter -7 not being great value currently...... even if mathewson is deemed fit.

munsters discipline is a real problem and exeter play a very, very suffocating pressurising game ... steensons on fire
giving home advantage as a 7 pointer that would assume these teams are on parity which i dont think is the case at all.

add a days less repair for munster, after a titanic game against leinster, and exeters relatively easy away 5 pointer v bath.

sydthebeat

Munster drifting out to +9 now

The wet weather normally equals things out, but in the case probably works to Exeters favour.

I don't expect the spread to move much from here...

razorblunt

Wasps 4/5 for +15.5 is there chat they’re sending out a weakened team or something?

sydthebeat

razorblunt wrote: »

Wasps 4/5 for +15.5 is there chat they’re sending out a weakened team or something?

Maybe not by choice.
Robson is a big player for them and he's long term injured now.
Hughes will probably be looking at a ban.

Put on that the fact they're playing very inconsistently.... They're third in league but very much "best of the rest" with a pd of only +1

On a dry track leinster should eat them up at home

Zzippy

sydthebeat wrote: »

Maybe not by choice.
Robson is a big player for them and he's long term injured now.
Hughes will probably be looking at a ban.

Put on that the fact they're playing very inconsistently.... They're third in league but very much "best of the rest" with a pd of only +1

On a dry track leinster should eat them up at home

Have you seen the forecast for Fiday?

sydthebeat

Zzippy wrote: »

Have you seen the forecast for Fiday?

Yep

sydthebeat

a quick word on some of the spread movements

Leinster stared at -14 and gone to -17
Looks like it might actually be dry and breezy for the game so that could still equate to value if they are chasing a TBP with 15 to go.

Munster started at +7 and gone to +9.
Looks like the worst of the weather will have passed by the time they kick off at 3:15
Exeter will have their sights firmly on reaching the latter stages and will be looking to put down a marker in this game against a traditional European stronghouse. Munster were better away against leinster than they have been away so far this season, however exeter is a different challange, and play in a manner that really doesnt suit this current munster team..... but still, its munster in europe, and as 2017 showed, they can never be discounted..... +9 looks about 2 or 3 points value to exeter imo.

Ulster started -3 and have shortened to -2.
This game is a hard call as both teams arent playing to their potential, with backroom turmoil in Leicester and injury table turmoil in ulster.
However, with relegation a real possibility for Leicester this season they may just be holding their powder for the premiership and home european games. leceister are coming from a really really galvanising win against saints last weekend, where they put out their strongest possibly team. Toomua is back, tuilagi is back humming, Jonny may has some question marks but could be likely.....

im on the fence here... definitely one to wait to see the team sheets to see what team Leicester send over which will be a strong indication as to how they will approach the game

no odds yet on connacht v begles
again, form is hard to gauge here as the french teams continue their schizophrenic home / away trait... with bordeaux having beating both la rochelle and clermont at home this season, and yet lost away to bottom feeders grenoble and agen ......

edit: at a guess, id have connacht -5

sydthebeat

bordeaux sending their seconds over...... connacht -12 is worth a punt for me.

The real mccoy 91

Just checked this week's prices how are Leinster only -7 away in Toulouse? That could possibly be my biggest bet ever

sydthebeat

edinburgh -4 for me

the last time leinster won away in france by more than 9 points was 7 years ago.......

i expect a very hard dogged win by less than 10 myself.

sydthebeat

typhoony

Connacht +17.5pts I think it will be a lot closer than that, worth a decent bet

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

i was way out on the acca but that was only for a bit of fun (it was a 48/1 return)

Embra the big one came in with miles to spare, and i certainly didnt foresee that level of capitulation from Toulon.

A quick look forward to this weekend to see if theres any value currently... both zebre and edinburgh coming in off great wins so no value in edinburgh -7

im not touching leinster -8 v treviso as they have had hard times away in italy over the years, and they will be down to the seconds squad.

cardiff blues +2 away to cheetahs is perhaps the only current value ive seen. the blues are on a bit of a roll in the pro 14 and wont want to give up their league position too easily. the cheetahs won this fixture last season by 2 points, but are a much weakened squad this year, with only 1 draw to their name so far (a crazy game at home to ulster)

so im going on blues +2


there may also be some value in waikato -6 at home to otago in the semi of the mitre 10. Im conscious that otago won this fixture by 4 points only 2 weeks ago in which they took the Ranfurly ..... but waikato were extremely slow out of the blocks that day and you can bet they will be very much up for this and out for revenge.

so something small on waikato -6 as well.


getting both at 11/10 on PP with power ups

ClanofLams

Backed Connacht +7, don’t expect that handicap to last when teams are named with Connacht gonna be close to full strength and Ospreys missing 9 Welsh internationals.

ClanofLams

ClanofLams wrote: »

Backed Connacht +7, don’t expect that handicap to last when teams are named with Connacht gonna be close to full strength and Ospreys missing 9 Welsh internationals.

Handicap is now Connacht minus 1 with paddy power or scratch with boyles.

thomond2006

ClanofLams wrote: »

Backed Connacht +7, don’t expect that handicap to last when teams are named with Connacht gonna be close to full strength and Ospreys missing 9 Welsh internationals.

ClanofLams wrote: »

Handicap is now Connacht minus 1 with paddy power or scratch with boyles.

Good spot Clan! Hope it goes well.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

there may also be some value in waikato -6 at home to otago in the semi of the mitre 10. Im conscious that otago won this fixture by 4 points only 2 weeks ago in which they took the Ranfurly ..... but waikato were extremely slow out of the blocks that day and you can bet they will be very much up for this and out for revenge.

so something small on waikato -6 as well.


getting both at 11/10 on PP with power ups

One down, as waikato win 36 - 13

sydthebeat

selections for the weekend