Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

sydthebeat

bet of the weekend for me is Edinburgh away +7 against ospreys

followed by scarlets +1 against ulster

on both, and a sneaky double too.

The real mccoy 91

Flicking through the outright markets today and some value caught my eye banahan @33/1 and naiyavoro @16/1 top tryscorer in the premiership I also think Lowe should be shorted than 6/1 for pro 14 top tryscorer so I've thrown a couple of doubles together

thomond2006

I took Munster -23. A bit of uncertainty given the lineups but I couldn't say no to that spread.

aloooof

thomond2006 wrote: »

I took Munster -23. A bit of uncertainty given the lineups but I couldn't say no to that spread.

Spread was 23 as well last year and they beat it comfortably, with Wootton getting 4 tries if I recall. It's a large spread to cover but I'd fancy them to repeat the trick again.

The real mccoy 91

Took a look to see if they had any games priced up for this weekend yesterday they had leicester as 5 point favourites against newcastle then last night they sacked Matt o Connor and this morning they are 7 point favourites I don't understand that at all

thomond2006

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Took a look to see if they had any games priced up for this weekend yesterday they had leicester as 5 point favourites against newcastle then last night they sacked Matt o Connor and this morning they are 7 point favourites I don't understand that at all

It makes perfect sense to me. When an unpopular coach gets sacked you normally see an improved performance almost immediately.

thomond2006

Kings +18 at the Dragons is interesting. It was 27-16 to Zebre last week before they scored a late try with two Kings players in the bin.

Del.Monte

Had a good outing with try scorers in last week's Munster vs Cheetahs game and the winnings all committed to the Wallabies v Boks match this weekend. The Boks are a shambles and the Wallabies are going to kill them - Folau is back in the squad too.

Taken

Wallabies to win @ 4/7

Wallabies to win by -5 @ 10/11

And the unlikely Draw @ 25/1

Money for jam.

The real mccoy 91

A few that have caught my eye for this week
Exeter -3 against wasps I'll also be looking to extend this handicap when it's priced up maybe around -8 or so I think wasps need sopoaga and le roux back before they will click into gear and Exeter very strong again.

Gloucester +3 against bath I expect big things from Gloucester this year and with cipriani looking to make a statement to keep his place in the England squad I think they have a much better backline than bath and will score plenty.

Australia -5 against sa with jantjies playing 10 I'll also be looking at a higher handicap he is simply dreadful and not good enough for the level imo I like the decision to play beale at 10 and expect and much better Aussie outfit this week especially with folau back -5 is generous

aloooof

Just had a look myself, Bristol +23 away to Saracens? Surprised it's that much, especially after Bristol's win over Bath last weekend.

sydthebeat

NZ -28
Aus - 5

singles
and a double on both

Aus to win +13 @ 23/10

Leinstertomas

Munster +8
Ulster -2.5 at HT
Double at 2/1

Also put a quid on both Murphy 9/1 and Coetzee 11/1 MOTM

Del.Monte

Del.Monte wrote: »

Had a good outing with try scorers in last week's Munster vs Cheetahs game and the winnings all committed to the Wallabies v Boks match this weekend. The Boks are a shambles and the Wallabies are going to kill them - Folau is back in the squad too.

Taken

Wallabies to win @ 4/7

Wallabies to win by -5 @ 10/11

And the unlikely Draw @ 25/1

Money for jam.

Lol - I just about got out with shirt intact. Fortunately, I was at home so no money was spent on drink.

The real mccoy 91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

A few that have caught my eye for this week
Exeter -3 against wasps I'll also be looking to extend this handicap when it's priced up maybe around -8 or so I think wasps need sopoaga and le roux back before they will click into gear and Exeter very strong again.

Gloucester +3 against bath I expect big things from Gloucester this year and with cipriani looking to make a statement to keep his place in the England squad I think they have a much better backline than bath and will score plenty.

Australia -5 against sa with jantjies playing 10 I'll also be looking at a higher handicap he is simply dreadful and not good enough for the level imo I like the decision to play beale at 10 and expect and much better Aussie outfit this week especially with folau back -5 is generous

2 out of 3 slightly hard done by with injuries for the Aussies and the handicap had went down to 2 but profit nonetheless

thomond2006

None of the Pro14 spreads stand out to me bar possibly Benetton +19. However as much as they've started well I get the feeling they are always close to taking a hammering and Scarlets look very strong. I'll keep an eye on the weather forecast for that one.

Flashdean

Edinburgh -8 against connacht is appealing ... looks like that's the bet for me ..

A different animal at home... 8wins from last 9 at home in pro 14..

thomond2006

There isn't much value I can see in the 'caps this weekend, though I might put a small bet on Tadhg Beirne try in 80 mins @ 4/1. He scored seven tries in the Pro14 last season.

sydthebeat

got on glasgow -7 earlier in the week (gone to -9 now)
and also gone with zebre +6

and a double on both

vapor trails

Ospreys have won their first two matches and top their pool. Can someone tell me why they are 24pts inferior to Munster?

kuang1

Wait for it...

Buer

vapor trails wrote: »

Ospreys have won their first two matches and top their pool. Can someone tell me why they are 24pts inferior to Munster?

They're putting out pretty much an entirely second string side.

Del.Monte

vapor trails wrote: »

Ospreys have won their first two matches and top their pool. Can someone tell me why they are 24pts inferior to Munster?

Mmmm!

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

got on glasgow -7 earlier in the week (gone to -9 now)
and also gone with zebre +6

and a double on both

Great weekend all round for me this time.

Id a few others which came in as well 😊including nugget as anytime try scorer.. And Duhan vdm as first try scorer.

thomond2006

Cheetahs +8 vs Ulster
Cardiff +2 vs Munster
Kings +24 vs Glasgow
Connacht scr vs Scarlets
Dragons -5 vs Zebre
Leinster -17 vs Edinburgh
Ospreys -11 vs Benetton

Benetton is probably the pick of those handicaps, followed by Munster. The bookies are still underrating Benetton, although Ospreys will likely put a full side after sending the U20s to Munster. Still, Benetton almost earned two points at Scarlets despite being down to 14 for the majority of the game.

sydthebeat

Yeah I'd expect munster to be more than 1 score ahead by the end.

Depends on munster line up but I expect a healthy enough 23

aloooof

Connacht favourites vs Leinster, surprised at that, even with it being in the Sports Ground.

sydthebeat

aloooof wrote: »

Connacht favourites vs Leinster, surprised at that, even with it being in the Sports Ground.

leinster 6 points ahead of 3rd placed scarlets already

im expecting a very much second string leinster team and a full strength connacht team.

personally i wouldnt be touching that bet until i saw the teams

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

Cheetahs +8 vs Ulster
Cardiff +2 vs Munster
Kings +24 vs Glasgow
Connacht scr vs Scarlets
Dragons -5 vs Zebre
Leinster -17 vs Edinburgh
Ospreys -11 vs Benetton

Benetton is probably the pick of those handicaps, followed by Munster. The bookies are still underrating Benetton, although Ospreys will likely put a full side after sending the U20s to Munster. Still, Benetton almost earned two points at Scarlets despite being down to 14 for the majority of the game.

:rolleyes:

aloooof

sydthebeat wrote: »

leinster 6 points ahead of 3rd placed scarlets already

im expecting a very much second string leinster team and a full strength connacht team.

personally i wouldnt be touching that bet until i saw the teams

Pretty much full strength Leinster, they've moved to 1/2. Some really big spreads this weekend, 5 of the 7 games have a 14+ point margin.

sydthebeat

aloooof wrote: »

Pretty much full strength Leinster, they've moved to 1/2. Some really big spreads this weekend, 5 of the 7 games have a 14+ point margin.

yeah theres been a 7 point swing already, and possibly might end up leinster -8 favs.

I got on at -4

Surprising team, but i wonder what that means for munster game.


bristol +1 against saints is my nap for the weekend