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Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

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    #272
    pilly
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,005 ✭✭✭pilly


    JanuarySnowstor wrote:
    I personally don't particularly buy the argument that after a severe storm trees are weakened. You could also use the argument that so many trees have fallen that not many more can so less damage!?


    Around where I live I've noticed today that a lot of trees and branches have just been thrown up on verges. They could blow back on the road with more strong winds.


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    #273
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    I personally don't particularly buy the argument that after a severe storm trees are weakened.
    You could also use the argument that so many trees have fallen that not many more can so less damage!?

    Back to the here and now this next storm is certainly an orange warning for the southwest

    Im not talking about Ophellia but another argument I hear at times is that trees in Donegal are more used to high winds and that a similar wind speed down south would do a lot more damage to trees there than in Donegal. I cant get my head around this, is it nonsense? If anything you would think trees in Donegal would be weaker.


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    #274
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Pangea wrote: »
    Im not talking about Ophellia but another argument I hear at times is that trees in Donegal are more used to high winds and that a similar wind speed down south would do a lot more damage to trees there than in Donegal. I cant get my head around this, is it nonsense? If anything you would think trees in Donegal would be weaker.

    Ah no i think it's sensible. I live at 336m above sea level and we get higher wind speeds. Trees, while growing, adapt to the stronger winds. A tree that has only ever experienced gusts up to 120km per hr is not case hardened to winds like a tree in Donegal that has experienced 150km gusts numerous times.


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    #275
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    sdanseo wrote: »
    I wonder if Danny Healy-Rae will believe in global warming if Kerry gets battered twice in a week?

    I doubt it, from some of the things I've heard him say, the only thing he believes in is himself :D

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



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    #276
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Latest GFS takes this a little further north. Not looking good for the southwest.

    gfs-0-54.png?18


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    #277
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    A thorough forecast here from Met UK https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155262263029209&id=287501884208


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    #278
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Latest ICON shows strong gusts in to the Southwest coast up to 120 - 130 or even 140km/h on Friday evening

    iconeu_uk1-11-49-0.png?18-23


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    #279
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    nagdefy wrote: »
    Ah no i think it's sensible. I live at 336m above sea level and we get higher wind speeds. Trees, while growing, adapt to the stronger winds. A tree that has only ever experienced gusts up to 120km per hr is not case hardened to winds like a tree in Donegal that has experienced 150km gusts numerous times.

    You're right, fascinating read here https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/news/2014/may/19/weatherwatch-how-trees-learn


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    #280
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/920773123213021185


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    #281
    Liffey4A
    Registered Users Posts: 154 ✭✭Liffey4A


    Pangea wrote: »
    A thorough forecast here from Met UK https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155262263029209&id=287501884208

    Excellent forecast, very detailed.


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    #282
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Latest ICON shows strong gusts in to the Southwest coast up to 120 - 130 or even 140km/h on Friday evening

    iconeu_uk1-11-49-0.png?18-23

    Does that model not tend to overplay wind strength? It seemed to for Ophelia anyway.

    Looking at the met office U.K. Forecast the system seems to weaken when it reaches our shores although not sure if they meant weakening over Ireland or before the uk!


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    #283
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Villain wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/920773123213021185

    960 is pretty bad i take it?


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    #284
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Pangea wrote: »
    You're right, fascinating read here https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/news/2014/may/19/weatherwatch-how-trees-learn

    I find it a bit like sport Pangea. Be it gaelic, soccer, rugby etc if you're thrown in to a higher level things can be pretty hairy the first day out! Whereas over time you adapt to the pace, the hits, intensity and so on.


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    #285
    littlema
    Registered Users Posts: 251 ✭✭littlema


    Strong winds for the North-West region on Saturday according to the GEM run


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    #286
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Does that model not tend to overplay wind strength? It seemed to for Ophelia anyway.

    Looking at the met office U.K. Forecast the system seems to weaken when it reaches our shores although not sure if they meant weakening over Ireland or before the uk!

    Interesting in that the ECM and GFS don't show the centre of the low panning out like the UK Met forecast.

    Sorry they actually do but the winds to the south of the centre retain a very tight gradient.


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    #287
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,550 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    I’ve a feeling that if these charts pan out, the general perception could be that this is worse than Ophelia, because it’ll come with a fair amount of rain, and it’ll last for many from Friday night through till Saturday.


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    #288
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    MJohnston wrote: »
    I’ve a feeling that if these charts pan out, the general perception could be that this is worse than Ophelia, because it’ll come with a fair amount of rain, and it’ll last for many from Friday night through till Saturday.

    If the centre tracks that bit further north it's deja vu for the south of the country. And that's often the way with an atlantic depression. Very tight gradient to the south of that low on the models.


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    #289
    littlema
    Registered Users Posts: 251 ✭✭littlema


    Strong winds for the North-West region on Saturday according to the GEM run


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    #290
    Steopo
    Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Steopo


    Storm Checklist
    - Is it a hurricane: No
    - Is it as bad as Darwin/Debbie/Ophelia: No (if you struggle with the concept of regional impacts then answer Yes)
    - Does it have a name: Not officially yet, but if classified as a storm it will be called Brian (quite likely)
    - Will it be Red National Warning: No
    - Will there be any red warnings: looking likely Orange for South/South West with possible Red Kerry/Cork. Yellow maybe orange elsewhere
    - How will they decide which counties are Red/Orange/Yellow: don't ask, it's been a long few days!
    - Will my flight leave from Dublin Airport: Yes
    - Will my flight leave from Cork Airport: Eventually
    - Will it disrupt my power coming back: if not back by Friday then quite likely
    - Will it be wet: yes very wet everywhere
    - Will there be flooding: much more rain & higher tides than Monday make some flooding a possibility especially in South/Cork
    - Will I be able to play my sports on Saturday: if born pre 1990's you'll be grand otherwise heed the warnings but you will be wet
    - Will more trees fall than Monday: yes the ground will be much wetter
    - Will more trees fall than Monday: no it won't be as windy
    - Will more trees fall than Monday: yes trees are weaker than recent storm
    - Will more trees fall than Monday: no all the weak ones have fallen
    - Do you know what you're talking: haven't a breeze

    - Will there be any deaths: banter is great but main point of Met E and these discussions is to inform so accidents are avoided


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    #291
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,374 ✭✭✭jirafa


    There's more stormy weather to come in the forecast as another deep low approaches, though there is a brief calmer spell on Friday. Matt Taylor has all the detail for the next few days and looks a little further ahead too.


    http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/41674625


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    #292
    mikeecho
    Registered Users Posts: 5,085 ✭✭✭mikeecho


    FFS.. I'm all for weather but not for power cuts.

    Seriously considering getting a generator, if these regular storms are going to become a common occurrence.

    I've dumped a at least €200 of food today.

    Long term, it might make financial sense.. and there is the convenience /comfort factor.


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    #293
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    According to the GFS : 10m Gust Chart / Pressure and Precipitation

    Fri Evening

    45-102UK_pro0.GIF

    Gusts

    4Opmry0.png?1


    Early Morning Sat 21

    57-102UK_mxg8.GIF


    z7WoZmR.png?1


    Afternoon Sat 21

    66-102UK_fku0.GIF

    qTLVSbB.png?1


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    #294
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    ECM has it peaking in intensity well out in the Atlantic before starting to occlude and fill. Occluding systems curve to the left (north), so still some small scope for a shift by Friday night. The exact interaction of the tropical moisture tomorrow with a small low out that's out at 40W at the moment may be a source of some error as the two circulations merge, however the system will be filling as it approaches through Friday.

    100 m winds Friday morning, hurricane force (gold). Lowest pressure acheived 964 hPa.
    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101812_045.jpg

    Saturday morning. 975 hPa, storm force (purple).
    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101812_066.jpg


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    #295
    Tzmaster90
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭Tzmaster90


    I am hosting a bbq on Saturday should I call it off or change it to friday


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    #296
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tzmaster90 wrote: »
    I am hosting a bbq on Saturday should I call it off or change it to friday


    MOD NOTE: Adhere to the forum charter.


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    #297
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,134 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    DunnoKidz wrote: »
    Will flights into Dublin airport be able to land on Friday?

    As of Tuesday early morning, flights were still being diverted due to windshear: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=104995629&postcount=6123

    As has been said countless times, YES!

    There was no flights diverted on Tuesday by the way.


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    #298
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    00Z ECMWF has the low deeper and a tad further north on the west coast.

    431023.jpg


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    #299
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    Is the time on that chart above 1am on Saturday in Ireland?


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    #300
    paska
    Registered Users Posts: 334 ✭✭paska


    Could one of the ladies or lads on here with a good knowledge give us an idea what to expect looking a the situation now? I know it might develop a bit different but an educated guess would be great.
    It's being hyped up by the media but we all know this is the place to get a proper view.
    This is one of the most beneficial fourms on Boards. Thanks for your expertise. I am sure it has saved lives we will never know about.


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    #301
    fletch
    Registered Users Posts: 7,392 ✭✭✭fletch


    "BREAKING: Storm Brian To Develop Into An Explosive 'Weather Bomb' In The Next 24 Hours" - lol


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