Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

Cantona's Collars

Met Eireann issued a yellow rain warning with 30-50mm forecast. The wet ground could cause problems with the wind at the weekend as weakened trees may come down.

JCX BXC

In terms of disruption to flights, I confidently forsee none.

Winds wont be strong enough to cause any major disruption at any Irish airport. Dublin may be using RWY16, which would cause delays (operations are slow due to lack of fast exit taxiways) but should not cause any real problems or disruption.

We get yellow level wind warnings all year round, never any issues. I wouldn't even consider the possibility of not being able to fly due to weather this weekend.

To get slightly more technical:
Google "TAF Dublin" nearer the date if you want some information yourself, you'll get a decoded one on most websites. For extra information, the crosswind limit on Ryanair's 737-800NG is 33kts, and on Aer Lingus' A320's it's 38kts. Due to the headings of Dublin's runway, you'd need gusts of near or over 40kts in order to go out of limits for most aircraft, and that is assuming the worst possible wind direction (220°/040° for Dublin)

JCX BXC

TopOfTheHill wrote: »

Ryanair had a flight due to land in Cork at 12:10 on Monday lunchtime (right when storm was due to hit). Even though all Aer Lingus flights were cancelled the previous evening, and most Ryanair flights were cancelled, this one was not cancelled until we were in the queue to board the plane. Every dog in the street knew there was no way of landing at that time, but maybe airline had a different view on what was possible - however, this is a story for another thread.

So, you can never count on a flight being cancelled, even in the worst weather situations.

Was that the flight due in from Palma, Majorca (PMI?). That was due for takeoff at 9:25am Irish time from Majorca but never took off as the weather had gone massively downhill by that time.

As you say often some flights can be left to chance just in case the forecast winds don't come off (for example, Dublin airport on Monday didn't see disruptive winds until after 9pm, all bar one of the flights that were still operating before this time got away without issue (not without delay however).

MJohnston

TopOfTheHill wrote: »

Ryanair had a flight due to land in Cork at 12:10 on Monday lunchtime (right when storm was due to hit). Even though all Aer Lingus flights were cancelled the previous evening, and most Ryanair flights were cancelled, this one was not cancelled until we were in the queue to board the plane. Every dog in the street knew there was no way of landing at that time, but maybe airline had a different view on what was possible - however, this is a story for another thread.

So, you can never count on a flight being cancelled, even in the worst weather situations.

No I wasn't saying that airlines will always cancel when they should - I'm saying that airlines may sometimes cancel when they end up not having needed to because of precautions about forecasts.

DOCARCH

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Met Eireann issued a yellow rain warning with 30-50mm forecast. The wet ground could cause problems with the wind at the weekend as weakened trees may come down.

This is a separate 'event' so I have started a separate thread in relation to same. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057798952

Busy times!

Storm 10

The press at it already

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/

Akrasia

pjohnson wrote: »

Similar question for 4.30pm Saturday.

And general question so I can somewhat monitor myself, What level warning/wind speed is needed before flights start to come into question?

It depends on crosswinds and visability

A plane can land if even a strong wind is blowing down the runway, but even moderate winds blowing across the runway will force it to divert.

TopOfTheHill

JCX BXC wrote: »

Was that the flight due in from Palma, Majorca (PMI?).

That's the one. A long day in the airport 7.45AM until 23:30PM .

The plane arrived in from Cork, so can see why we were there - in case it was possible to turn it around and fly out again.

I just thought it was a bit funny, that all flights for the day were cancelled, except for the one that was due to land at the same time as the storm was predicted to be at its height.

JCX BXC

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ophelia-flood-alert-coming-for-cork-city-120000-remain-without-power-nationally-810311.html

Apparently a flood alert to be issued for Cork. Very poor referring to the storm as Storm Brian, it's unlikely it'll be named it all (actually, I'm probably wrong, however point stands it's not named yet.)

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ophelia-flood-alert-coming-for-cork-city-120000-remain-without-power-nationally-810311.html

Apparently a flood alert to be issued for Cork. Very poor referring to the storm as Storm Brian, it's unlikely it'll be named it all.

While I agree that's poor form, I disagree that the naming for this is unlikely - some of the coastal winds around Wales look just strong enough for an Orange warning.

Gaoth Laidir

The crosswind limits of planes are greatly reduced if the runway is wet.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The crosswind limits of planes are greatly reduced if the runway is wet.

Should have mentioned that, however I still foresee little disruption as the direction looks fine for RWY16

GhostyMcGhost

Storm 10 wrote: »

The press at it already

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/

The absolute irony of that ****

The Met Office is yet to name the storm system as it is too early to determine its eventual power and path.

Didn’t stop them determining in big doomsday-esque font that it could blitz the U.K.

Pure dirt

Oscar Bravo

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
An Atlantic Depression is expected to track eastwards over parts of Ireland on Saturday. South to southeasterly winds on Friday night will veer northwesterly on Saturday and are expected to reach yellow warning criteria, at this stage. There is potential for mean wind speeds of 50 to 60km/h and gusts of 90 to 110km/h, especially in coastal counties.

Issued:Wednesday 18 October 2017 16:00
Valid:Friday 20 October 2017 18:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 23:59

pad199207

Latest 12z ICON has it more northwards again and I don’t want to cause panic or anything but gusts of 140KMH in the SW again meeting RED criteria.

Gaoth Laidir

pad199207 wrote: »

Latest 12z ICON has it more northwards again and I don’t want to cause panic or anything but gusts of 140KMH in the SW again meeting RED criteria.

Above 90 kph seems to be Red criteria nowadays...

pad199207

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Above 90 kph seems to be Red criteria nowadays...

Yeah I agree with you there

Autochange

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Trying to decide whether to cancel an underage hurling match at 3pm on Saturday in Galway. What do ye think?

It'll toughen them up. Play ball

JanuarySnowstor

Storm Brian looking increasingly menacing.
Also places worst hit in Ophelia are hit again
Certainly orange might even be red
Friday night though so little disruption to schools

Harry Palmr

Fecks sake.

Tzmaster90

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Fecks sake.

Tell m.t cratium to kill it with fire or talk to the models to please downgrade it

munsterlegend

Tzmaster90 wrote: »

Tell m.t cratium to kill it with fire or talk to the models to please downgrade it

The GFS model has upgraded it for Ireland and particularly down south. The ECM will be out later so we'll see what that has to say.

squarecircles

These more traditional Atlantic systems usually trend more northwards, hopefully the west can get some action.

sumtings

munsterlegend wrote: »

The GFS model has upgraded it for Ireland and particularly down south. The ECM will be out later so we'll see what that has to say.

The GFS 12z looks a bit lighter on the south coast than the 06z.

pjohnson

This thing has my nerves in bits

M.T. Cranium

Tzmaster90 wrote: »

Tell m.t cratium to kill it with fire or talk to the models to please downgrade it

You're closer to it than I am.

munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

You're closer to it than I am.

You've a better line to the weather gods though.

km79

squarecircles wrote: »

These more traditional Atlantic systems usually trend more northwards, hopefully the west can get some action.

Why?
I'd enough action Monday and there are a LOT of dodgy looking trees around
No thanks

M.T. Cranium

Not in real life ... Arpege seems to be lagging behind in the northward trend but is also fairly strong for the south coast. GEM is more or less same as GFS, track appears to be Clare to Meath for the low centre.

pauldry

Looks bad on latest run in same places as Ophelia but not as strong

120kph likely in many places on coastal south.

A very late developing storm which is Hugely Dangerous

E.g people might look at charts Thursday n see f all and carry on Friday n Friday night