Why would anyone give away good tips.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-09-2017 03:28PM

That Ballet Shoes is taking a bit of a price crash, just watched it go @34 into 26, 23, 21, now @17.

Edit: @13 now.

Guffy · 10-09-2017 03:36PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

1.55 DARK INTENTION 19.00
1.55 IN THE RED 23.00
1.55 DESTROYER 17.00

3.05 ARDMOONEY 13.00
3.05 DUKE OF FIRENZE 34.00
3.05 SON OF REST 9.00

3.20 ANTIMATTER 8.0
3.20 MATIN DANJOU 21.00

3.40 BALLET SHOES 34.00

4.15 BROTHER BEAR 21.00
4.15 VERBAL DEXTERITY 7.50
4.15 COAT OF ARMS 34.00
4.15 BECKFORD 4.33
4.15 ROSTROPOVCIH 17.00

4.50 DARMOUTH 8.50
4.50 WICKLOW BRAVE 17.00
4.50 WESTERN HYMN 26.00
4.50 MOUTH MORIAH 26.00
4.50 TWILIGHT PAYMENT 41.00
4.50 LORD YEATS 51.00

The order of play with his tips today . Easy to keep track

Are they all 1 point ew selections?

BorneTobyWilde · 10-09-2017 03:38PM

Guffy wrote: »

Are they all 1 point ew selections?

Yep.
That's the instruction from tipster, All 1 point ew

Guffy · 10-09-2017 03:43PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Yep.
That's the instruction from tipster, All 1 point ew

O sorry, thought you had gotten your sytem up and running. Picking a few from the same race

cardwizzard · 10-09-2017 03:51PM

Aurora Tiny Garbage wrote: »

That Ballet Shoes is taking a bit of a price crash, just watched it go @34 into 26, 23, 21, now @17.

Edit: @13 now.

Surly worth laying 1pt if it comes in by this much?

If your on at 33s and give 14/16s seems decent to myself win or lose.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-09-2017 03:57PM

cardwizzard wrote: »

Surly worth laying 1pt if it comes in by this much?

If your on at 33s and give 14/16s seems decent to myself win or lose.

Sure or just back one of the shorter ones also, 34 into 13 was a major price movement. It had a chance but not today 3:40 Results:

1st 7 Happily (IRE) 13/2
2nd 8 Magical (IRE) 9/4
3rd 10 September (IRE) 4/1

Esse85 · 10-09-2017 05:28PM

I.55 DARK INTENTION 19.00 WON
1.55 IN THE RED 23.00 LOST
1.55 DESTROYER 17.00 LOST

3.05 ARDMOONEY 13.00 LOST
3.05 DUKE OF FIRENZE 34.00 LOST
3.05 SON OF REST 9.00 PLACED

3.20 ANTIMATTER 8.0 PLACED
3.20 MATIN DANJOU 21.00 PLACED

3.40 BALLET SHOES 34.00 LOST

4.15 BROTHER BEAR 21.00 LOST
4.15 VERBAL DEXTERITY 7.50 WON
4.15 COAT OF ARMS 34.00 LOST
4.15 BECKFORD 4.33 PLACED
4.15 ROSTROPOVCIH 17.00 LOST

4.50 DARMOUTH 8.50 LOST
4.50 WICKLOW BRAVE 17.00 PLACED
4.50 WESTERN HYMN 26.00 LOST
4.50 MOUTH MORIAH 26.00 PLACED
4.50 TWILIGHT PAYMENT 41.00 LOST
4.50 LORD YEATS 51.00 LOST

the whole year inn · 10-09-2017 06:03PM

Esse85 wrote: »

I.55 DARK INTENTION 19.00 WON
1.55 IN THE RED 23.00 LOST
1.55 DESTROYER 17.00 LOST

3.05 ARDMOONEY 13.00 LOST
3.05 DUKE OF FIRENZE 34.00 LOST
3.05 SON OF REST 9.00 PLACED

3.20 ANTIMATTER 8.0 PLACED
3.20 MATIN DANJOU 21.00 PLACED

3.40 BALLET SHOES 34.00 LOST

4.15 BROTHER BEAR 21.00 LOST
4.15 VERBAL DEXTERITY 7.50 WON
4.15 COAT OF ARMS 34.00 LOST
4.15 BECKFORD 4.33 PLACED
4.15 ROSTROPOVCIH 17.00 LOST

4.50 DARMOUTH 8.50 LOST
4.50 WICKLOW BRAVE 17.00 PLACED
4.50 WESTERN HYMN 26.00 LOST
4.50 MOUTH MORIAH 26.00 PLACED
4.50 TWILIGHT PAYMENT 41.00 LOST
4.50 LORD YEATS 51.00 LOST

Profit for the say?

mayoman1973 · 10-09-2017 07:40PM

the whole year inn wrote: »

Esse85 wrote: »

I.55 DARK INTENTION 19.00 WON
1.55 IN THE RED 23.00 LOST
1.55 DESTROYER 17.00 LOST

3.05 ARDMOONEY 13.00 LOST
3.05 DUKE OF FIRENZE 34.00 LOST
3.05 SON OF REST 9.00 PLACED

3.20 ANTIMATTER 8.0 PLACED
3.20 MATIN DANJOU 21.00 PLACED

3.40 BALLET SHOES 34.00 LOST

4.15 BROTHER BEAR 21.00 LOST
4.15 VERBAL DEXTERITY 7.50 WON
4.15 COAT OF ARMS 34.00 LOST
4.15 BECKFORD 4.33 PLACED
4.15 ROSTROPOVCIH 17.00 LOST

4.50 DARMOUTH 8.50 LOST
4.50 WICKLOW BRAVE 17.00 PLACED
4.50 WESTERN HYMN 26.00 LOST
4.50 MOUTH MORIAH 26.00 PLACED
4.50 TWILIGHT PAYMENT 41.00 LOST
4.50 LORD YEATS 51.00 LOST

Profit for the say?

Unfortunately I have to make adjustments to those results.
The win and place in the 4:15 are subject to rule 4 deductions of 50p so brings them down to placer @ 3.0 and 4.50 winner approx.
Also unless you got an extra place in the 4:50 then Wicklow brave was not a placer, 4th.
In total todays stats are
20 picks, 40 pts staked, 50pts won, +10pts profit.
Overall: 293 picks, 586pts staked, Bank = +238pts.

Keyzer · 11-09-2017 09:12AM

Not much on today apart from Brighton and Newton Abbot.

Any tips for either today?

mayoman1973 · 11-09-2017 09:27AM

Nah, alls quiet on the western front. No ££ yet in the exchange to get the pot stirring.

Keyzer · 11-09-2017 09:31AM

No worries, I'm on the twitter machine if something crops up.

mayoman1973 · 11-09-2017 10:18AM

For anyone thinking they can cash in on these steaming in by laying off I can tell you right now that has been tried. Means spending time watching markets to decide when/if to lay off. Long term you might be maybe 1 or 2% better off but if you put a price on your time, and you should, then you could never justify the additional time spent. What happens is you end up missing another one while faffin about chasiing a few pennies. These are fire and forget.

cardwizzard · 11-09-2017 11:09AM

I hear what your saying and agree for the most part, but reducing risk appeals to me.

Have followed on twitter and v interested as its a concept i havnt come across before. Fair play for putting in the time and effort... Im playing small stakes with your selections to see how we get on for few weeks :-)

mayoman1973 · 11-09-2017 11:33AM

Thing about betting and laying off to reduce risk is it does nothing more than line Betrairs allready well lined pockets. Period. I started off doing a bit of matched betting and did ok ish. I layed everything off. I recorded everything. 6 mths down the line I looked at my spread sheet of close to 3000 bets. Maybe £5000 profit. But it was alot of work for that few quid which was ok as I had zero risk. But ... Then I noticed if I had just took the value price the bookie was offering and left it at that I would have had over £10000 profit. I had basically handed £5000 to betfair in comms. The latter option would have been less than half the work for over twice the profit. What people laying off don't do is put a value on their time. When I put on a £20 ew bet, I don't see that as anything other than £X earned. Doesn't matter if bet wins or not. I am on the right side of the value and I know given sufficient number of bets that I will meet my target %. Some people just don't understand the importance of getting the best price for your bet because its not the losers that matter, it is the winners that matter. Getting 15.0 for a winner is no good when it could have been 17.0 if you shopped around. Spend your time shopping around for the best price for your bet. Spend time documenting every bet you make regardless of size. Spend time opening a few new accounts. Don't be wasting time laying off and handing money to betfair for nothing.
Results after few 1000 bets are what you should be focusing on

cardwizzard · 11-09-2017 11:58AM

Totally get what your saying, and it makes complete sense, especially re time spent and valuing that. And getting the max price is vital in all regards.

My point earlier in the thread was if your in at 33s and lay at 16s thats good business in my book. Basically a 17/1 free bet excluding time spent laying. Probably not worth the time and effort for laying 5s to 7/2 or 4s for example for same stake depending on your appetite.

But i hear ya loud and clear and Im a bit intrigued truth be told...

eric hoone · 11-09-2017 01:33PM

just a heads up, 16.55 brighton- 4 non-runners has left paddy very exposed with his 4 places special offer, only 10 left in the field...

BorneTobyWilde · 11-09-2017 01:34PM

Sometimes you post a tip at say 34.00 Betfred, tip could be posted at 1pm, but history of that selection would show it was never 34.00 at time of post.
It might have opened at that price at 5am in morning, and then to 30.00 9am and then to 24.00 11am and then to 17.00 at 1pm time of post. How could I ever get that price.

Keyzer · 11-09-2017 02:02PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Sometimes you post a tip at say 34.00 Betfred, tip could be posted at 1pm, but history of that selection would show it was never 34.00 at time of post.
It might have opened at that price at 5am in morning, and then to 30.00 9am and then to 24.00 11am and then to 17.00 at 1pm time of post. How could I ever get that price.

He posts everything on Twitter. I have a notification on my phone to inform me whenever he tweets. I'm only using PP at the moment and, most of time, the odds are close if not exactly what he tweets (at the time of tweeting of course).

mayoman1973 · 11-09-2017 02:05PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Sometimes you post a tip at say 34.00 Betfred, tip could be posted at 1pm, but history of that selection would show it was never 34.00 at time of post.
It might have opened at that price at 5am in morning, and then to 30.00 9am and then to 24.00 11am and then to 17.00 at 1pm time of post. How could I ever get that price.

Only ever put them up if I have taken the price myself. Once I click that button I'm no longer checking if the price moved. I just tweet it there and then. Plenty show up where bookie price is long gone that I don't get myself but for some reason when you look on the bookie site price is still there till you put it in your betslip. I just leave them ones alone. Betfred/Totepool are notorious for that so if their "live" pricing is not correct it would be a stretch to expect their historical data to be correct.

mayoman1973 · 11-09-2017 02:10PM

eric hoone wrote: »

just a heads up, 16.55 brighton- 4 non-runners has left paddy very exposed with his 4 places special offer, only 10 left in the field...

Will Paddy still pay the extra place? Its like nailing jelly to the ceiling with Paddy. They wriggle out of everything to the point now where Paddy is well down the list of books if one pops up that is available on most. Them extra places can make things very profitable but it is as if the markets have already adjusted for them and they rarely seem to pop up in those particular races. Saturdays would be the exception with more money washing about

4068ac1elhodqr · 11-09-2017 02:10PM

The @34 yesterday was available at the place in a couple of places, was only in the last hour or two, that it went southwards into 26,23,19,17,13(SP). The only problem was it didn't win. So don't think there is any foul pay regarding prices.

4068ac1elhodqr · 11-09-2017 02:24PM

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Will Paddy still pay the extra place? Its like nailing jelly to the ceiling with Paddy. They wriggle out of everything to the point now where Paddy is well down the list of books if one pops up that is available on most. Them extra places can make things very profitable but it is as if the markets have already adjusted for them and they rarely seem to pop up in those particular races. Saturdays would be the exception with more money washing about

looks valid, as per the popup terms:

If there are less than 8 starters we will pay 3 places

(more than 8 but less than 16 and it's 4pl, more than 16 guess it's 5pl). There are currently '10' listed, so barring x3 NR's looks good.

mayoman1973 · 11-09-2017 07:26PM

Today: 5 picks, 10 pts staked, returns 9.9pts, +0pts
Overall: 298 picks, 596pts staked, Bank = +238pts.

mayoman1973 · 12-09-2017 09:18PM

Today: 4 picks, 8 pts staked, returns 0pts, -8pts
Overall: 302 picks, 604pts staked, Bank = +230pts

mayoman1973 · 13-09-2017 10:46PM

Today: 11 picks, 22 pts staked, returns 9pts, -13pts
Overall: 313 picks, 626pts staked, Bank = +217pts
34% profit
We're in the inevitable correction phase. Still, onwards we go.

mayoman1973 · 14-09-2017 11:10PM

Another bad day

Today: 15 picks, 30 pts staked, returns 19pts, -11pts
Overall: 328 picks, 656pts staked, Bank = +206pts

ballyargus · 14-09-2017 11:14PM

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Another bad day
Today: 15 picks, 30 pts staked, returns 19pts, -11pts
Overall: 328 picks, 656pts staked, Bank = +206pts

I didn't follow religiously but managed to get lucky with two of your each way shots today.

Car99 · 15-09-2017 07:56AM

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Another bad day
Today: 15 picks, 30 pts staked, returns 19pts, -11pts
Overall: 328 picks, 656pts staked, Bank = +206pts

Still above 30 percent.

mayoman1973 · 15-09-2017 09:53AM

ballyargus wrote: »

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Another bad day
Today: 15 picks, 30 pts staked, returns 19pts, -11pts
Overall: 328 picks, 656pts staked, Bank = +206pts

I didn't follow religiously but managed to get lucky with two of your each way shots today.

That the way this game goes, one of the guys following seemed to only ever get the losers, another guy has done about 1/4 the bets and has got on any big winner there has been. Say there are 2000 bets. Two different people do 1000 bets each and by some fluke they manage to do 1000 different ones each. Both can expect to be within +/- 5% of each others profit totals.

Why would anyone give away good tips.

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