Homelessness on the rise

NIMAN · 26-04-2017 12:54pm

If the Government built 100,000 new homes this year, there would still be homeless people next year.

Homelessness exists in every country. It will never be eradicated in Ireland.

Tony EH · 26-04-2017 1:03pm

There is such a thing a damage limitation. At the moment, homelessness is rising month on month and there's bugger all being done about it. Just a load of smoke being blown up people's arses by a government who are happy to pass it onto the next crowd that come in.

Not a good situation.

antoinolachtnai · 26-04-2017 1:35pm

NIMAN wrote: »

If the Government built 100,000 new homes this year, there would still be homeless people next year.

Homelessness exists in every country. It will never be eradicated in Ireland.

You would still have homelessness, but you would also have less of it.

Shortage of accommodation also has other big negative impacts on the economy. In particular it drives up living costs and wages.

Slydice · 26-05-2017 1:54am

The April figures have been released:
http://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/homeless_report_-_april_2017.pdf

Homelessness on the rise. I've updated the two charts based on the totals they give.

Homelessness (Adults)

Family Homelessness

The latest report has changed to have this as the first line:

The long term solution to the current homeless issue is to increase the supply of homes

Same day as this:
Housing Crisis: Fury as families sleep in Garda stations
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/housing-crisis-fury-as-families-sleep-in-garda-stations-450911.html

The Dáil heard that there are 61,600 households that qualify for social housing and one in five of those have been on the list for five years, there are more than 60,000 people in severe mortgage distress.

Nationwide, there are 7,472 homeless people and this number has now increased 32% since March 2016.

Same week as this:
'Highest number' of rough sleepers recorded in Dublin
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/highest-number-of-rough-sleepers-recorded-in-dublin-791047.html

The highest number of rough sleepers was recorded in Dublin last night according to Inner City Helping Homeless.
Three Inner City Helping Homeless (ICHH) teams found that 173 people were sleeping rough.
They said that 133 were male, 38 were female, and 2 were children.

NIMAN · 26-05-2017 9:32am

What is the No1 factor causing people to become homeless in Ireland?

Does anyone know?

We know that people in mortgage arrears are rarely kicked out of their homes, so can't be that.

Is it landlords pushing people out to sell up?

jamesthepeach · 26-05-2017 10:04am

myshirt wrote: »

Is it correct that we set up our economy (mostly through borrowing which the current generation are paying off) to allow baby boomers and generation X to buy property at average wages even, but today we still permit them to focus on the more profitable side of the market only, ie working professionals, couples without kids, or room by room rentals to professionals in order to get more from the property.
Op
Time for some social rebalancing in favour of equality here. Very aggressively, landlords should be made take on social welfare tenants. Very aggressively.

At the moment it's a piss poor lip service from our laws. I'd hammer, and I mean truly hammer any landlord who believes they've some god given right to focus on the "less riskier" side of the market only.

I have some rental properties I'm going to flog.
PM and you can buy them off me and then give them to whoever you like.
The risk Vs reward is out the window now and I don't see it getting any better.
But maybe you can make a go of it where I can't.

By the way you would have to be able to do it while making a loss as you wouldn't be allowed to charge anymore than 55% of what the same apartment next door is renting for, due to rent controls. And if the place needs a spruce up that has to come out of your own pocket because you can't increase the rent to cover the cost.

Good luck with it though.

antoinolachtnai · 26-05-2017 10:09am

The rental capacity is full and getting more full as people sell up and the stock reduces. The only way landlords can take on more social welfare tenants is by kicking out non-social welfare tenants. Is that really going to provide a solution?

Loads of people in public, private and charitable sector would love nothing more than to build houses for social welfare tenants on long-term contracts. But it doesn't actually make any economic sense.

Wheeliebin30 · 26-05-2017 10:13am

NIMAN wrote: »

What is the No1 factor causing people to become homeless in Ireland?

Does anyone know?

We know that people in mortgage arrears are rarely kicked out of their homes, so can't be that.

Is it landlords pushing people out to sell up?

Many are foreign nationals. The families who presented themselves to garda stations the other night were mostly romas who arrived in the country that day.

How do you stop that? You can't really.

And a lot are people who just want to jump the q for a house.

2,000 houses turned down last year by people looking for a social house.

It's a joke it really is.

mel123 · 26-05-2017 11:01am

NIMAN wrote: »

What is the No1 factor causing people to become homeless in Ireland?

Does anyone know?

We know that people in mortgage arrears are rarely kicked out of their homes, so can't be that.

Is it landlords pushing people out to sell up?

I have to be a negative nancy here and say the amount of people claiming to be homeless who are not, they just want the 'free house', has to be one of the contributing factors for sure

antoinolachtnai · 26-05-2017 2:05pm

NIMAN wrote: »

What is the No1 factor causing people to become homeless in Ireland?

Does anyone know?

We know that people in mortgage arrears are rarely kicked out of their homes, so can't be that.

Is it landlords pushing people out to sell up?

The No1 factor causing people to become homeless in Ireland is lack of accommodation. Demand exceeds supply. The only other factor you could talk about is strong economic growth in the populated areas.

26-05-2017 2:10pm

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

The No1 factor causing people to become homeless in Ireland is lack of accommodation. Demand exceeds supply. The only other factor you could talk about is strong economic growth in the populated areas.

What about the 2000 social housing offers that have been turned down?

NIMAN · 26-05-2017 2:16pm

mel123 wrote: »

I have to be a negative nancy here and say the amount of people claiming to be homeless who are not, they just want the 'free house', has to be one of the contributing factors for sure

If this is true, then I kinda feel sorry for those who have to answer in the media for homelessness numbers that seem to be exploding.

I heard a woman on the other day, she was the Director for some housing committee or something, being grilled about the people who had to go to a Garda station. She really is fighting a losing battle, isn't she?

I bet she would love to say "if we have such a homelessness crisis, why are people turning down homes", but she would be ripped apart for speaking the truth.

Tony EH · 26-05-2017 2:29pm

Let's get some perspective here.

This "2000" rejections is from 2014 (according to the IT - I can't find any updated story) and it was out of a housing list of 130,000. Plus, we don't know why these 2000 rejections were given in the main - although no doubt there are some questionable ones as there are in everything. Also, prospective council tenants get a couple of offers and if they are rejected, those same prospective tenants get put further down the list.

Even so, out of 130,000 - 2000 is pretty mickey mouse, not to mention there is absolutely no context whatsoever.

Mrs OBumble · 26-05-2017 2:29pm

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

The No1 factor causing people to become homeless in Ireland is lack of accommodation. Demand exceeds supply. The only other factor you could talk about is strong economic growth in the populated areas.

Demand exceeds houses being offered for rent.

But it does not exceed the number of empty houses.

The problem is with the incentives for landlords and property owners.

NIMAN · 26-05-2017 2:31pm

In Donegal I think we had a % refusal rate in the mid-40s up until a couple of years ago.

Now I appreciate that there isn't the demand in Donegal that there is in Dublin, but this should mean that there should be next to no refusals in Dublin area.

Tony EH · 26-05-2017 3:15pm

NIMAN wrote: »

In Donegal I think we had a % refusal rate in the mid-40s up until a couple of years ago.

Now I appreciate that there isn't the demand in Donegal that there is in Dublin, but this should mean that there should be next to no refusals in Dublin area.

There were over 42,000 people on Dublin's housing list a couple of years ago and about 240 refusals according to the Irish Times.

That's less than .5%.

So, yes, "next to no refusals" if you take the grand scheme of things into account.

Zubeneschamali · 26-05-2017 3:18pm

Tony EH wrote: »

There were over 42,000 people on Dublin's housing list a couple of years ago and about 240 refusals according to the Irish Times.

That's less than .5%.

42,000 people on the list - how many offers? That would be the relevant percentage.

Tony EH · 26-05-2017 3:20pm

Can't find that. If you can work away.

Carlos Orange · 26-05-2017 3:37pm

Tony EH wrote: »

There were over 42,000 people on Dublin's housing list a couple of years ago and about 240 refusals according to the Irish Times.

That's less than .5%.

So, yes, "next to no refusals" if you take the grand scheme of things into account.

It was 20% in Dublin in 2015. I think the rules on refusals were changed last year with the intent to encourage people not to refuse so maybe it is down a bit since then.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/fiasco-as-up-to-half-of-housing-offers-are-rejected-34261067.html

Tony EH · 26-05-2017 3:47pm

So that equates to about 20% of 1200 offers.

Not that crazy IMO.

Certainly not something to be running up a flagpole and trying minimise the very real crisis we have in the this island re: housing. Plus, without any real context, it's all just blowing numbers in the air.

What I find personally shocking, though, is the low amount of offers.

pilly · 26-05-2017 3:53pm

Tony EH wrote: »

So that equates to about 20% of 1200 offers.

Not that crazy IMO.

Certainly not something to be running up a flagpole and trying minimise the very real crisis we have in the this island re: housing. Plus, without any real context, it's all just blowing numbers in the air.

What I find personally shocking, though, is the low amount of offers.

Yeah, I feel the same, if they keep going at that rate it will take 35 years to deal with the list.

pwurple · 26-05-2017 3:55pm

So, there are no houses to rent... shortage, prices go up. Bottom of the market cannot afford anything.

To my mind, a free-market solution would be to encourage landlord to build rent-appropriate homes. Lots of them. And don't crucify them with tax. I hope everyone knows that ~50% of rent goes straight to the taxman, before it gets to paying the mortgage, insurance or maintenance. Unless you are a vulture fund, in which case it's 12 or 13%. What do you think is being encouraged here with that tax regime?

Nermal · 26-05-2017 4:06pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

The families who presented themselves to garda stations the other night were mostly romas who arrived in the country that day.

How do you stop that? You can't really.

Yes we can.

NIMAN · 26-05-2017 4:55pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Many are foreign nationals. The families who presented themselves to garda stations the other night were mostly romas who arrived in the country that day.

How do you stop that? You can't really.

Well maybe you can.

I don't mean to sound harsh here, but why can't Ireland have rules on entry? Whats the point letting people into the country if they immediately become a burden on the State?

Its madness to let uncontrolled entry happen if every person is likely to want somewhere to live from Day 1.

pilly · 26-05-2017 5:14pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote:

Many are foreign nationals. The families who presented themselves to garda stations the other night were mostly romas who arrived in the country that day.

Where's the link to prove this claim?

athtrasna · 26-05-2017 7:58pm

Mod note

This is not the place to discuss immigration or associated issues.

Mrs OBumble · 26-05-2017 11:36pm

pwurple wrote: »

To my mind, a free-market solution would be to encourage landlord to build rent-appropriate homes. Lots of them. And don't crucify them with tax. I hope everyone knows that ~50% of rent goes straight to the taxman, before it gets to paying the mortgage, insurance or maintenance. Unless you are a vulture fund, in which case it's 12 or 13%. What do you think is being encouraged here with that tax regime?

Not actually true.

The portion of the rent pays for insurance, maintenance and 75% of the mortgage-interest is tax free.

It's the rest that is taxed at 50%. I agree it's harsh (I've got a rental property myself). But no need to overstate the case.

I suspect that it's a lot of other facts - especially rent control - are encouraging people to avoid landlording.

Rodin · 26-05-2017 11:56pm

NIMAN wrote: »

In Donegal I think we had a % refusal rate in the mid-40s up until a couple of years ago.

Now I appreciate that there isn't the demand in Donegal that there is in Dublin, but this should mean that there should be next to no refusals in Dublin area.

Probably enough empty house in Donegal to cater for all Dublin's homeless.

jamesthepeach · 27-05-2017 6:52am

For me it's not the tax that's forcing me out. It's definitely the rent control.
If they fixed the tax situation and kept rent control I would still be out.
If they got rid of rent control I might consider staying in since the sale isn't complete yet.
But while their are rent controls I'm definitely selling up.

The_Conductor · 27-05-2017 9:05am

Tony EH wrote: »

Let's get some perspective here.

This "2000" rejections is from 2014 (according to the IT - I can't find any updated story) and it was out of a housing list of 130,000. Plus, we don't know why these 2000 rejections were given in the main - although no doubt there are some questionable ones as there are in everything. Also, prospective council tenants get a couple of offers and if they are rejected, those same prospective tenants get put further down the list.

Even so, out of 130,000 - 2000 is pretty mickey mouse, not to mention there is absolutely no context whatsoever.

2,000 rejections of social housing- and there was a list of reasons given- including one particular gem that had me burst out laughing- the prospective tenant feared they'd get seasick, because the property had a sea view.........

17,800 HAP offers rejected- variety of reasons- including, but not limited to people terrified they would loose their 'opportunity to get a forever home, because I'm entitled to it like' (and no, this quote is not from Erica Flemming).

Affordable Housing scheme- officially and finally stood down in 2016- as per the court case against a claw back on the discounted purchase prices.

2,682 Local authority housing units repossessed between 2014 and 2016- predominantly for antisocial behaviour or illegal activities (a few gems in the list- a couple of enterprising people had grow-houses which were detected by thermal imaging on the Garda helicopter, a few more were engaged in the world's oldest profession- and there was a bizarre and meandering list of other misdemeanors).

Also- we now have 73,000 households who are statistically 'in severe mortgage distress' and at risk of becoming homeless at any given time. Of this 73,000- over 40,000 have not made a mortgage payment in over a year.

So- there are a variety of reasons out there- and even our worsening homeless figures hide a myriad of associated issues- predominantly the fact that our lenders have been told hands off non-performing mortgages- AIB in particular is being hamstrung by this one. The government do not need another 40k homeless households overnight- its more palatable to keep our banks as basket cases.

The homeless problems- are getting worse- but are being artificially massaged so as not to show the true extent of the issues...........

By the way- of the 22 families who slept on the floor of Garda stations (figures from the AGSI) on Tuesday night of this week- all but 5 were non-nationals, and 14 of the 22 families had been in the country for less than 10 days. I'm not sure what exactly this means or depicts- but we seem to be attracting people to the country- who don't have accommodation, and don't have the means of providing accommodation for themselves.

Homelessness on the rise

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