100 Bets to Broke Festival Fever

National Hunt Chase

I've been looking at this race quite a few times in the last few days and I just can't get past Arbe De Vie at a huge looking price for one with such potential. I'm not sure how many of these would be capable of a very unlucky second in a top 2m4 handicap hurdle of a mark of 144 on Good Ground. He has also finished 4th at the festival in the Alfred Bartlet when he looked a sure stayer even when that was on softer ground. He again ran well enough in the Coral Cup last year when possibly left with a bit too much to do but still finished in 10th only 5 lengths of the winner. I think he will be better on decent ground here and if his run behind the subsequently very good Acapella Bourgeois can be taken at face value, where he was only 4 lengths away in 2nd, this form stacks up well against the other Irish horses at the top of the market here. He jumped really well in that race and the whole package of a Good Ground stayer that can jump and with a bit speed is just about perfect for this race where the first lap is often slow enough. I'll go for a win bet now at the huge looking price of 25/1 but might top up again on the day if 4 places are available. Im not that concerned which one Paddy chooses here, but I think he will be making a mistake not to be one the selection unless possibly Bellshill goes for this instead of the RSA.

2 Points win 25/1 365/VC/betfair

2:50
I'm loosing the plot here because i picked A Good Skin earlier while on the boat over and when I eventually get here he has been backed into 25/1 from 33/1 earlier. I still feel he is the value play EW here as he is 3 lbs lower than last years second to Cause or Causes. He is getting weight from nearly everything and has surly been readied for this race all year. I had a bigger bet in mind at the 33/1 price but well reduce it to a standard 1pt EW. I feel the place part is very good with his course form and 5 places.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 places 365/hills/paddy/vc 6 Places sky

The only bet left from my Subscription service is MTOY, he still looks a bit of value now even at 20/1 in the ground.
Champion Hurdle Ante-Post

Last year I went for My Tent or Yours ew and he ran a great race after a long absence. I think he is being underestimated again this year. He is one of the only horses in the field with genuine Champion Hurdle form which is all that counts in this race. He hasn’t been great this year but between soft ground and not having the race run to suit at Christmas I think he could well be a different horse after a break at the festival. Of the shorter priced horses half won’t run and the other half are just out of novice company and don’t even look like the top of the novice tree from last year either. 50/1 NRNB is massive now with Faugheen out and when he turns up here he is a 20/1 shot at best. I’d be going for a bigger bet if there were more bookies at the 50/1 but we’ll leave it at 1 pt ew.
 
1 Point EW 50/1 NRNB totesport/Fred

2:10


Ive been flipping coins as to which of the big priced horses to go for in the EW market here and the dart has landed on A Hare Breath. His last run needs to be forgiven but that is always the case with a 50/1 shot. He strikes me as one that could run well in this race and can pick up the pieces to run into a place. He had a great run in the  Greatwood hurdle this year and on ratings 50/1 is simply too big. He looks a 4 or 5/1 shot to place here so 12/1 is easily big enough to make a bet.

1 Point EW 50/1 1/4 odds 365 50/1 1/5 odds vc/paddy/betfair/coral

2:50

Hawk High is one of my plot horses for this festival. I had though he was going in the County, but he appears here at a decent price. He has a very good record fresh and i think he certainly has a decent chance here tomorrow. I'm putting it up early as i'm sure it will be backed. His run in the County last year was eye-catching and  33/1 6 places is great value.

2 Points ew 33/1 6 places Paddy/Coral

This race has 3 of my Pre-Festival handicap horse along with Hawk High, I was confident about a good run this festival from Old Guard and Hargam. Old Guard is worth a bet here at 25/1 as i think he has a touch of class along with very good course form. He was a big eye-catcher in his last 2 runs and i fully expect him to be involved at the finish here.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places 365/boyles/vc

2:10

Aubesson has decent good ground 3 mile firm over hurdles and has looked like he is improving this year . Last years grade 1 French form would be right in the firing line here .

1 point ew 80/1 5 places vc/365/lads

2:10
I'm sure people will think Ive lost the plot here but i just cant rule out L'ami Serge at a huge price. He is mad and a poor jumper at times but no matter what way i look at it he is going to be placed here. His festival form is better than most of these, and i think what he actually needs is this fast 2 mile race. 33/1 with 6 places is a huge price
2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Paddy/Sky 5 places elsewhere
3:30
I think there is a fairly strong chance that Cue Card is a fair way clear of these. Im more or less ruling out Native River as i don't really like his form at all. That makes the 5/1 about Cue Card seems too big and worthy of a decent bet. I think he will love this test on decent ground. In addition i think Irish Cavalier is about a 10/1 shot to place making his 100/1 4 places price too big. He certainly loves good ground and was 5th last year.
2 Points win Cue Card 5/1 fred/tote/betway/32 and more
1 Point EW Irish Cavalier 100/1 4 Placs Paddy 80/1 4 Places Sky.
4:10
Mendip Express is a mad price here at 66/1. He had some of the best form last year in hunters and has s superb chance of being involved here. I also think Black Thunder is very overpriced because of a poor run last time. We can be sure today is the day for him.
1 Point EW Medip Express 66/1 4 places Paddy/VC/Betfair
1 Point EW Black Thunder 33/1 4 Places Paddy/VC/Betfair
5:30
Mr Fiftyone has been an expensive horse to follow for a long time but he will like the ground here and i like the fact that he has been sent here after a 5 month break by a trainer who just doesn't waste travel. 33/1 is worth the risk
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

12:50 Meyden

I’m about to pick the biggest price horse I’ve ever selected, as I’m hopeful I’ve found the real value in this race tomorrow. Basateen had been a disappointing horse, but has been a bit of an eye-catcher on his last few runs and has improved with each run and each step up in trip. He was particularly eye-catching last time against the top 2 in this market when anything that could have went wrong did as he got no run at all and finished well to be 4th 3 lengths behind the fav here. He steps up another 2 furlongs here and is completely unexposed over this trip. From what I’ve seen last time this may well improve him again and if it does there is no chance he is a 200/1 shot. Now let’s not get carried away as at best he is a 33/1 or 40/1 shot here but still those margins are huge and with the added bonus of his potential stepped up again I’m all over this 200/1. IF only I could get 4 places EW, but still beggars can’t be choosers and we’ll have to make do with 3 places here. I’d be getting on early as these kinds of prices will go as soon as a few people stick on small enough EW bets.


2 Points EW 200/1 Paddy/Betfair/VC

150/1 EW w/o FAV on betfair, thats what i ended up backing.