100 Bets to Broke Festival Fever

Shanee.

Kailey Harsh Motorboat wrote: »

Shanee. wrote: »

Andy holding tipped this up probably why price is gone

Indeed think his was posted at 13:11 today, surprised BS left it so long up (8pm) @41

They wouldn't lay eggs so I wouldn't pay much attention to the prices they go

Shanee.

Kailey Harsh Motorboat wrote: »

Shanee. wrote: »

Andy holding tipped this up probably why price is gone

Indeed think his was posted at 13:11 today, surprised BS left it so long up (8pm) @41

They wouldn't lay eggs so I wouldn't pay much attention to the prices they go

Shanee.

Kailey Harsh Motorboat wrote: »

Shanee. wrote: »

Andy holding tipped this up probably why price is gone

Indeed think his was posted at 13:11 today, surprised BS left it so long up (8pm) @41

They wouldn't lay eggs so I wouldn't pay much attention to the prices they go

Shanee.

Kailey Harsh Motorboat wrote: »

Shanee. wrote: »

Andy holding tipped this up probably why price is gone

Indeed think his was posted at 13:11 today, surprised BS left it so long up (8pm) @41

They wouldn't lay eggs so I wouldn't pay much attention to the prices they go

Shanee.

Sorry don't know how that posted 10 times

hawaii501

Think we got it the first time

longshotvalue

2:00 meyden

Finsbury Square looked like an improving sprinter last year and with a run under his belt this year he could well get competitive here at a huge price. He travelled really well in the Abbay last year when just getting nosed out of the places and 66/1 is value.


1 Point EW 66/1 Generally

Peintre Celebre

Not a bad pick not often you get a 200/1 shot trade 9/1. Thought he got a bad enough ride going five wide around the turn pushing along.

longshotvalue

3:35 Lincoln
I had time to have a good look at this this morning I narrowed it down to 4 horses for value here. Instant Attraction,Gabrial, Emell and Withernsea. I’m only going to go with 2 here and Instant Attraction is the most interesting of those at a decent look 25/1 . He looks to have a decent draw has course form and should be able to get competitive of this mark. Gabrial is my second choice as i think he is a proper group horse and even of 108 will get close enough ehre at a big looking 22/1. I’ll go against my original comment and have a saver on Emell at a huge 33/1 just to save the TV from certain death if he were to win here.
1 Point win Instant Attraction 25/1
1 Point win Gabrial 22/1
1/2 Point win Emell 33/1



1:50 Doncaster
I think Absolutely So should be fav here and looks like a Group Horse in what looks a poor enough renewal. 15/2 is just too big
1 Point win 15/2 Various

2:25 Doncaster
Mutakaraz interests me here of what looks a fairly decent mark. He ran well enough in last years Lincoln of a much higher mark with no prep run and i think he will be a lot better in this weaker race after a decent looking prep run this year. He is very lightly raced and could well improve this year to make this mark look very good in hindsight.
1 Point win 14/1 Generally

3:00 Doncaster
Kool Company is and interesting sort for this race. He looks a possibly top notch horse a couple of years ago and has some good wins of a break to his name. This race could be an ideal opertunity for him to get back to form.
1 Point win 11/1 Generally

2:40 Kempton
I think Professor has been given a decent break here on this mark and his second last run was promising enough. 33/1 is probably a few points too big of such a low mark and he is probably going to pop up at some stage.
1 Point win 33/1 Generally

Bozo Skeleton

Thanks Aidan. I backed every selection each way. Nice bit of place money for Gabrial.
At least I thought I backed them all each way. When I was collecting the Kool Company winnings I realised I forgot to write the each way part on the docket. I was pleasantly surprised!

longshotvalue

3:20 Doncaster


We will keep stakes low for the flat for most of the year but its hard to resist a big handicap like this . Bogart improved a lot towards the end of last year has some very good course form of higher marks and has run well first time out a few times before. He is also drawn on the right side and 22/1 looks a bit of value.


1 Point win 22/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Aintree Grand National

Im going to get in a bit early with my first selection here as I think sense will prevail shortly and he will shorten to about 33/1 before the end of the week. Bishops Road is a certain stayer here, and although he fell at his first attempt at these fences, he has only had 1 go and some of his form even this year reads well in comparison to a lot of this field. He has given weight to a lot of those up the top of the market and is much better in here after only 3 runs this year. At 9 he is the right age and with under 11 stone he has too many positives to ignore. Im also pretty sure he can act on decent ground and if the amount of soft that is in the ground stays there, all the better. I think he will not be out of the places if he stands up (which is obviously a big if the same as every horse at every price) .


2 Points EW 50/1 6 places Paddy/VC 66/1 5 places sky 50/1 5 places elsewhere

longshotvalue

Aintree 2:20

I’m drawn to Bedrock here as a typical Aintree horse that hasn’t been to Cheltenham ,He did catch the eye on his only run when badly hampered by Charlie Parks falling in the Adonis. He wouldn’t have been far behind Flying Tiger if he got a clear run and although he is worse of at the weights here he should improve for that run and 66/1 looks very big.


1 Point EW 66/1 Generally


Aintree 2:50

Cue card could dance home here and I’ll certainly be cheering him home but I think the value may lie elsewhere. I don’t really understand the confidence behind Empire of Dirt as he was very poor at the festival considering the 2m5 there might not be a lot different than the 3m here. I have a sneaky feeling Smad Place may get into a rhythm here and might not be that easy to catch around here. The same could be said for Bristol de Mai but he isn’t value at the prices.


1 Point win 18/1 Betfair 16/1 Paddy


Aintree 4:05

Darwins Fox is a classy good ground performer who also jumps well on a going day. He has been steadily improving in hunters lately and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get involved here at a big price. I’ve missed a few points from his earlier price but 40/1 with 4 places is decent value on ratings alone


1 Point EW 40/1 4 places 365/hills/paddy and others

Johner

Great shout with Bedrock there, ran a cracker.

Bozo Skeleton

Darwins Fox ran a cracker too, I think we'd have defintely got place money at least if he didn't plough through the last.

longshotvalue

4:05 Aintree

Bright new dawn is stepping back up in trip here and has been running well all this year for his new trainer. He strikes me as one that will take to this test. He came good at this time last year winning a very good handicap at Punchestown of a 1lb higher mark and also caught the eye last time out in the Grand Annual when probably caught for pace near the end after travelling really well. I think 40/1 is a huge price with 6 places for a very consistent horse.


I’m also going for Quite By Chance who started the season in top form and if he can improve after his little break and run in the Grand Annual he could also run a big race here at a big price.


1 Point EW 40/1 Bright new dawn 6 places Paddy 33/1 6 places Sky
1 Point ew 33/1 Quite By Chance 6 places Sky/Paddy

Peintre Celebre

Backed him and Irish cavalier at 28s already he is massive 40/1 six places

Nulty

Good picks. I like both those too.

Have a thing for Irish Cavalier but I'll be surprised if he takes to this. Not keen on his jumping

longshotvalue

2:20 Aintree

I think 9/2 is just too big about Moon Racer here. He just never got going in the champion hurdle and this race is light years weaker. He should be able to travel well here and if he is anywhere near 100% he will be hard to pass in the finish. He will go off shorter. I have a sneaky suspicion that American Gigolo will improve here and Im going to go with a small place bet at 16/1


2 Points win Moon Racer 9/2 stan/32/888
½ Point place American Gigolo 16/1 Sky/365


3:25
Im not convinced that Gods Own is really in top form this year and to my eye Sub Lieutenant may want a sterner test. This race should be the just right for Josses Hill. He has looked better than ever this year apart from the Ryanair, which really doesnt suit him. This race over all looks very tight with any of the field holding a chance. 14/1 looks value as I think he is more of an 8/1 shot here.


1 Point win 14/1 Paddy/Betfair/Betbright

4:40 Aintree

I think this flat track 3 miles on good ground is really going to suit strong flat stayer Beyond Conceit . He was superb in the Supreme despite it probably being too short a trip. He is certainly going to travel well here and give us value for our bet at a big looking 16/1, considering none of the top 3miles novices are here.


1 Point win 16/1 Generally

madmoose

Interesting comment by Henderson regarding Beyond Conceit, he was speaking to Jamie Spencer who said at Goodwood one time over 2m5f that he was absolutely tanking through the race and also the way he stayed at Ascot a few starts ago scream stayer. Well worth the 16/1 which you mention.

longshotvalue

1:40 Aintree

This is a tough race but I like the look of unexposed Crievehill who ran a decent race in the County when it is probably just too good a race for him. He is on a nice mark here now in this weaker race over a longer trip and I think that will suit him. His 3rd behind Neon Wolf and Elgin reads well considering the time of that race and the fact he stayed on well at the end. He looks value at 33/1


1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Massimo Tara

Great selection with beyond conceit aidan. I didn't back him myself as I wasn't certain he'd stay but he was nearly the most impressive there.

longshotvalue

Grand National
The bet365 offer is simply too good to ignore when you can get €250 on with all the place part returned immediately which effectively doubles the price. All these selections should be backed with that offer.
I’m going to start with the realisation that there is only 1 class horse in this race and despite the fact that More of that is one of the favourites I still think he is value at 16/1 with the 365 offer. Even his Gold Cup run would be easily enough to win this and he wasn’t over exerted near the finish when his chance was gone. Every time I look at the weights here I just can’t get away from him, especially when he seems to be improving significantly in his last 2 runs. This should be ideal for him. Normally id never go EW at this price but its free and if he gets around he will be placed at least.
My original second pick for this is Stellar Notion. He is a very good jumping prominent racer that has been in very good form this year in top races. Compared to some of the marks in this race his looks manageable and if he stays here, which is in fairness a big question mark, he will give us a great spin for our money. 66/1 with the 365 offer is very good value.
Measureofmydreams was in the process of getting to a decent finish at the festival last month when getting badly hampered 2 out. He looks to have been trained with this race in mind and looks well treated compared to some of the others here. He is a definite stayer with a very light season this year and will improve here.

2 Points EW More of that 16/1 Bet365

1 Point EW Stellar Notion 66/1 Bet365

1 Point EW Measurefmydreams 50/1 BET365

longshotvalue

1:45 Aintree

Leoncavallo interests me here at a huge price, as I think he might be suited be a flat 3 miles here on good ground. He’s on a nice mark and if he can recapture any of his good form hell be in the firing line here. He’s worth a shot at 66/1


1 Point EW 66/1 6 Places SKY/5 Places Paddy

Francie Barrett

aidankkk wrote: »

1:45 Aintree

Leoncavallo interests me here at a huge price, as I think he might be suited be a flat 3 miles here on good ground. He’s on a nice mark and if he can recapture any of his good form hell be in the firing line here. He’s worth a shot at 66/1


1 Point EW 66/1 6 Places SKY/5 Places Paddy

Can see why you like the horse, but the jockey is fcukin' useless. 7lb claimer more like a stone penalty.

longshotvalue

5:30 Haydock


Azure Fly is in here of a decent mark, on good ground ,over the right trip and in a weaker race. He looks one of the more likely winners here and 11/1 looks significantly too big in my eyes.


2 Points win 11/1 Generally

longshotvalue

3:50 Haydock

Lagavara catches the eye here of what look a generous mark. Compared to runs against Poppy Kay before she is really well in here. She hasn’t had a chance to run on decent ground and a slight step up in trip should help. 11/1 looks overpriced


2 Points win 11/1 Generally

longshotvalue

3:15 Haydock

Eyes of a tiger should be suited by this race and I’m hopeful he may have ben readied for a crack at this. He has run well in a few decent looking races and will be going off in front. His 7lbs claimer looks a decent jockey with a good strike record and 20/1 looks value.



1 Point EW 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue

5:00 National

Arbe de Vie is as confident a pick as I could have in this 30 runner race . He was one of my naps at the Cheltenham festival and was getting into the race when he slipped up 3 out . I think he will certainly be placed here if he gets around . Paul Townsend is on today. He just looks a class animal that is on a nice mark due to things not going his way over fences so far.

2.5 points ew 5 places 20/1 365/VC

Im also going to go with a speculative bet on my aintree selection Stellar Notion . He looked to hate the fences there and was pulled up early . I don't think it would be taken lightly by the trainer to have him out again and on his other form this season 50/1 looks massive

1 pt ew 50/1 6 places paddy/sky

longshotvalue

Scottish National 3:55 Ayr

The way things are going for the last few months any selection of mine is a fairly easy lay considering recent results, but I just can’t resist a 3 figure price about a horse that did me a favour a couple of times in the past. Firebird Flyer, let’s face it, has been poor this year and in general is seen as a soft ground horse. He does have some bits of form on good ground which gives an indication that he can run well on decent ground. He hasn’t actually run on that ground for 3 years. He is a certain stayer on his day and is down below his last winning mark. 6 Places with Paddy Power is a fairly big concession and I just feel he might not be running here if he was going to get nowhere again.

1 Point EW 100/1 6 Places Paddy 66/1 6 places SKY