100 Bets to Broke Festival Fever

longshotvalue

This is the 10th of these treads I've started and 8 out of the other 9 were profitable so hopefully that continues .

razorhead

aidankkk wrote: »

This is the 10th of these treads I've started and 8 out of the other 9 were profitable so hopefully that continues .

Best of luck with it Aidan...

vandriver

Watching....

jimjamcos

The Wicklow Brave episode from non-starter to (33/1?) festival winner within a week was something else. Scenes.

Gregk961

Good stuff Aidan will be glad to have your write ups back, always used to often give them a read before Saturday racing. Wouldnt be one for following someone elses picks but you even convinced me to back a few winners!

Did you finish up with the paid service or is it still going?

longshotvalue

Gregk961 wrote: »

Good stuff Aiden will be glad to have your write ups back, always used to often give them a read before Saturday racing. Wouldnt be one for following someone elses picks but you even convinced me to back a few winners!

Did you finish up with the paid service or is it still going?

I finished it. I just didn't have the time to be managing it. It was profitable so no harm done.

Shemale

aidankkk wrote: »

This is the 10th of these treads I've started and 8 out of the other 9 were profitable so hopefully that continues .

Best of luck Aidan, always a great thread to read / follow

longshotvalue

Haydock 3:15

Aqalim is the outsider of the field here but having another look at his last run in a race that was probably just too quick for him , he ran on well at the end when tailed off earlier. This ground and trip could well be what he needs and with a nice low weight and a few bookies giving 4 places in this 13 runner race I think the 50/1 is value. He was a very decent staying hurdler in soft ground and if he can improve at all here for the step up in trip i think he will give us a decent run for our money here.

1 Point EW 50/1 4 Places sky/ 40/1 4 places hills. 50/1 3 places 365/betway/32/888


Gowran Park 1:55

I get the feeling that this race could fall into the grasp of the outsider here in Mozoltov . Up until this years good form he wouldn't be that far behind Ballycasey and that horse can easily put in a poor run as he often does. He will certainly be favored by the ground and trip here. He was too free in the Hilly Way last time after a long break and if that has put him right he probably wont get a better chance to win a decent race this year.16/1 with paddy seems a good few point too big.

1 Point win 16/1 Paddy/vc/betway/

longshotvalue

3:15 Haydock

Vicente has been my pick for this race all week and I have to say I’m gutted he has been backed in this morning from 14/1 – 11/1. To me he is a fairly solid 2nd fav here of this mark , particularly after the national weights are out. I was waiting to see if the ground would change at Haydock as I wouldn’t fancy him on real soft ground but it hasn’t so far and now we have lost 3 points. That makes this a min bet rather than a larger win bet her as the margin is smaller. He is a proven stayer and his form last year was Steller to say the least. He has actually been decent enough in good races this year without really participating. 11/1 is still a bit of value and I have to have a small bet to save the tv from getting a remote thrown at it if he wins and I haven’t something on.


1 Point win 11/1 365/sporting/paddy/betfair 12/1 stan

longshotvalue

Wincanton 2:45

A fair few of these need to not perform to give us a chance here but the price on Melodic Rendezvous w/o Yanworth makes it worthwhile. He has a good record around here and once we can ignore his last run over a longer trip he could well improve again today. I don’t think the ground will suit Sceau Royale so we basically need Irving to have a poor day to get a shot at a big pay-out. Irving has done that plenty of times and up to 33/1 w/o fav here is value.


1 Point w/o FAV 33/1 coral 28/1 sky 22/1 lads

3:20 Wincanton


Spice fair has been running well of late and if the fav isn’t thrown in here he could well be second best of the rest making his current price of 12/1 decent value. He likes soft ground, will stay and if his 7lbs claimer can ride he is running of a nice racing weight here. This race isn’t as strong as the ones he has been running well in lately.


1 Point win 12/1 hill/vc/pp/betfair and others

Ascot 2:25

I think this race is just about perfect for Virak. He is of a very nice mark looked to have been getting back to form last time out and although there are a few better than him here I think today may be his day. O’Faolains boy would walk in here of this mark if he was ready but he will be ready in April for the national , the same could be said of last year’s winner Sausalito Sunrise, who will surely be warming up for the big say as well. 15/2 seems value



1 Point win 15/2 365/paddy/betfair/hills

Ascot 3:35

With the ground improving all the time I’m now getting interested here in Irish Cavalier. I fancy him to run a big race in whatever he goes for at the festival and if he is to do that he needs to run well here. It all depends on Cue Card but I think he needs a trip these days and could get caught out for pace. There is essentially nothing between my selection and Taquin du Seuil really and the price difference is too much to ignore.


1 Point win 20/1 generally 22/1 Stan

muletide

Hey Aiden - are you finished with this already?

I agreed with a lot of your initial picks, just a very bad first day out. Thanks

Francie Barrett

muletide wrote: »

Hey Aiden - are you finished with this already?

I agreed with a lot of your initial picks, just a very bad first day out. Thanks

Seriously?

This is exactly why people here don't want to do nice things for other people. I put up a thread awhile back called "Following John Best". I was absolutely slaughtered for it because the trainer didn't immediately deliver results. Shortly after though, the trainer went from a 2% strike rate in 2014 to a 17% strike rate in 2015.

The only way you get thanks here is by promising guaranteed money (impossible).

Guffy

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Seriously?

This is exactly why people here don't want to do nice things for other people. I put up a thread awhile back called "Following John Best". I was absolutely slaughtered for it because the trainer didn't immediately deliver results. Shortly after though, the trainer went from a 2% strike rate in 2014 to a 17% strike rate in 2015.

The only way you get thanks here is by promising guaranteed money (impossible).

He didn't slate him francie, in fact the opposite. He said he liked his picks and they were unlucky, whens his next one

Peintre Celebre

Dunno why you're jumping down his throat Francie there was nothing negative in that post

Gringo180

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Dunno why you're jumping down his throat Francie there was nothing negative in that post

I agree with Francie, although he directed his frustrations at the wrong post/poster. There is some clowns on this forum who you try to pass good info onto and then ye get called a spoofer or when you try put up a few selections and when there beaten your sneered at :pac:

Any punter that thinks they can consistently make a profit at this game is away with the fairies, most of us have a gamble for the love of the sport and hope to get a nice winner here or there but theres some mongolides on here that think they know it all.

longshotvalue

My subscription service ends on the 28/2 ill be posting selections then.

I only ever look at horses on Saturdays, and big meetings.

muletide

Aidan - Must look up that subscription service - thanks for the reply.

mod edit: <snip>

longshotvalue

muletide wrote: »

Aidan - Must look up that subscription service - thanks for the reply.
mod edit: <snip>.

No need to look it up the last selections were posted today. From here on itll be back to free..

Deco99

aidankkk wrote: »

No need to look it up the last selections were posted today. From here on itll be back to free..

How'd the venture work out? Obviously not amazing given your stopping just curious as to what happened. Always like to see someone stick their neck out to do something they enjoy as a business. Unfortunately I only have a passing interest in horses so wasn't for me.

longshotvalue

Deco99 wrote: »

How'd the venture work out? Obviously not amazing given your stopping just curious as to what happened. Always like to see someone stick their neck out to do something they enjoy as a business. Unfortunately I only have a passing interest in horses so wasn't for me.

It went well enough profitable in 2015 and 2016 which was a total of 16 months and about 75 points profit. Slow start this year but at the prices I go for it needs a decent sample . the reason I'm stopping is I'm too busy to keep up the texts emails subs etc. I'm giving up a fair few quid but it wasn't worth it , especially when it got in the way of enjoying Cheltenham last year .

It was more of an experiment to see if money can be made at it and it proved that can work .

Francie Barrett

mod edit: <snipping quoted post>

When I created the thread, John Best had a 2% strike rate for the previous season. I said his horses were well handicapped and he was a trainer to follow, I even put my neck on the block and created a thread about it. The next year he went to 17%.

<snip>

If you think it's luck, it most definitely isn't. At the start of the year I said Marwan Koukash had well handicapped horses and he was one to follow. Here is the post.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=102103885

Since then off a level stake you'd have made a packet on his horses

Gregk961

mod edit: <snip> [Let's] leave Aidans thread clutter free?

ColmEm

Gregk961 wrote: »

mod edit: <snip> [Let's] leave Aidans thread clutter free?

Was only responding to Francie's interesting claim. Apologies Aidan. Should be a good thread.

Luap

Hopefully the only clutter in the thread will be about the winners.

Will follow.

convert

Let's take this thread in the spirit it's intended, so avoid any strong disagreements and dragging the thread off topic.

longshotvalue

Newbury 1:30

Royal Guardsman has been a good horse for me as I’ve been on both times he has won around here at a decent price. His reappearance this year was decent and if he can improve on that, this race looks weaker and he should be fitter. He certainly isn’t a 14/1 shot and more than likely will go off around 9/1. He is back to his winning mark.


1 Point win 14/1 Generally

longshotvalue

2:05 Newbury

Turban never got going on his last run after early mistakes but his previous run was pretty decent of a much higher mark in a better race than this. He was never the most consistent for Willie Mullins but is well capable of a big run like his 3rd in the Bobbyjoe Chase this time last year. He will go on the ground and is of a real attractive mark here. Let’s face it there is a better chance he will finish last than first but 40/1 is easily worth the risk.


1 Point EW 40/1 Generally

Charlie19

aidankkk wrote: »

Newbury 1:30

Royal Guardsman has been a good horse for me as I’ve been on both times he has won around here at a decent price. His reappearance this year was decent and if he can improve on that, this race looks weaker and he should be fitter. He certainly isn’t a 14/1 shot and more than likely will go off around 9/1. He is back to his winning mark.


1 Point win 14/1 Generally

Good each way. Thanks

longshotvalue

Identity thief nrnb

Im temped to take a bit of the 16/1 nrnb before he runs today . It's a simple case of if he performs well here he'll run and have a chance if not he won't run . On form he'll be the 2nd best horse in the Arkle if going .



2 points ew 16/1 sky paddy Betfair . Arkle

longshotvalue

Triumph NRNB

It looks to me as if there is a huge chance the ground will be at least Good-Soft again here and I think there is no chance that Landofhopeandglory will start at 20/1 on good ground. He is sure to improve for his last run and the Heavy Ground then was never going to suit. I’m going to take the 20/1 now as he’ll go of about 12/1 at best. He was favorite for this race for a long time and I’m not sure anything that has happened since has changed his chance. There is also the slight risk and that hot fav here will withdraw on good ground which will have a huge effect on the price.


1 Point win 20/1 365/sky/boyles/sporting/32 and more

longshotvalue

Sandown 1:50

Ramses De Teille has the look of one that will be much better over this longer trip and on softer ground. He caught eye last time out when looking green in the finish. His mark of 119 looks workable in this type of race and I think he will be staying on at the finish here. Gaitway also looks a bit of value but I’m thinking Ramses is better value at 22/1


1 Point EW 22/1 365/stan/coral/boyles

longshotvalue

National Hunt Chase

I've been looking at this race quite a few times in the last few days and I just can't get past Arbe De Vie at a huge looking price for one with such potential. I'm not sure how many of these would be capable of a very unlucky second in a top 2m4 handicap hurdle of a mark of 144 on Good Ground. He has also finished 4th at the festival in the Alfred Bartlet when he looked a sure stayer even when that was on softer ground. He again ran well enough in the Coral Cup last year when possibly left with a bit too much to do but still finished in 10th only 5 lengths of the winner. I think he will be better on decent ground here and if his run behind the subsequently very good Acapella Bourgeois can be taken at face value, where he was only 4 lengths away in 2nd, this form stacks up well against the other Irish horses at the top of the market here. He jumped really well in that race and the whole package of a Good Ground stayer that can jump and with a bit speed is just about perfect for this race where the first lap is often slow enough. I'll go for a win bet now at the huge looking price of 25/1 but might top up again on the day if 4 places are available. Im not that concerned which one Paddy chooses here, but I think he will be making a mistake not to be one the selection unless possibly Bellshill goes for this instead of the RSA.

2 Points win 25/1 365/VC/betfair

longshotvalue

Day 1 Overpriced double

I've had a bit of success with these "I'm having a bad day" accums before at Cheltenham before. These aren't necessarily my picks in the races but I feel there is a double available in a few places that is certainly overpriced. Petit Mouchoir is 7/1 in the Champion Hurdle and Apples Jade is 5/1 in the Mares. Both of these should possibly be fav for both races and as much as I'd be tempted with a bigger EW bet I'll go with a small win double as I can't let it pass at these prices

1 Point win Double Petit Mouchir & Apples Jade 48/1 Paddy & Betfair 44/1 Sky

longshotvalue

2:50
I'm loosing the plot here because i picked A Good Skin earlier while on the boat over and when I eventually get here he has been backed into 25/1 from 33/1 earlier. I still feel he is the value play EW here as he is 3 lbs lower than last years second to Cause or Causes. He is getting weight from nearly everything and has surly been readied for this race all year. I had a bigger bet in mind at the 33/1 price but well reduce it to a standard 1pt EW. I feel the place part is very good with his course form and 5 places.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 places 365/hills/paddy/vc 6 Places sky

longshotvalue

5:30
This race has been wreaking my head as it looks a poor enough renewal. Ive finally settled on Hammersly Lake, who looks to have the best form in the race. He will be suited by the ground and has good festival form in the past with a  decent run in the coral cup last year. He seems overpriced here at 18/1. Runs behind Le Prezien and Top Notch look the best form on offer.
1 Point win 18/1 sky/hills/vc/stan

longshotvalue

The only bet left from my Subscription service is MTOY, he still looks a bit of value now even at 20/1 in the ground.
Champion Hurdle Ante-Post

Last year I went for My Tent or Yours ew and he ran a great race after a long absence. I think he is being underestimated again this year. He is one of the only horses in the field with genuine Champion Hurdle form which is all that counts in this race. He hasn’t been great this year but between soft ground and not having the race run to suit at Christmas I think he could well be a different horse after a break at the festival. Of the shorter priced horses half won’t run and the other half are just out of novice company and don’t even look like the top of the novice tree from last year either. 50/1 NRNB is massive now with Faugheen out and when he turns up here he is a 20/1 shot at best. I’d be going for a bigger bet if there were more bookies at the 50/1 but we’ll leave it at 1 pt ew.
 
1 Point EW 50/1 NRNB totesport/Fred

longshotvalue

The only bet left from my Subscription service is MTOY, he still looks a bit of value now even at 20/1 in the ground.
Champion Hurdle Ante-Post

Last year I went for My Tent or Yours ew and he ran a great race after a long absence. I think he is being underestimated again this year. He is one of the only horses in the field with genuine Champion Hurdle form which is all that counts in this race. He hasn’t been great this year but between soft ground and not having the race run to suit at Christmas I think he could well be a different horse after a break at the festival. Of the shorter priced horses half won’t run and the other half are just out of novice company and don’t even look like the top of the novice tree from last year either. 50/1 NRNB is massive now with Faugheen out and when he turns up here he is a 20/1 shot at best. I’d be going for a bigger bet if there were more bookies at the 50/1 but we’ll leave it at 1 pt ew.
 
1 Point EW 50/1 NRNB totesport/Fred

longshotvalue

2:10


Ive been flipping coins as to which of the big priced horses to go for in the EW market here and the dart has landed on A Hare Breath. His last run needs to be forgiven but that is always the case with a 50/1 shot. He strikes me as one that could run well in this race and can pick up the pieces to run into a place. He had a great run in the  Greatwood hurdle this year and on ratings 50/1 is simply too big. He looks a 4 or 5/1 shot to place here so 12/1 is easily big enough to make a bet.

1 Point EW 50/1 1/4 odds 365 50/1 1/5 odds vc/paddy/betfair/coral

Bozo Skeleton

Not much joy for me here today. Didn't go with the MYTOY, thought he was past getting a result. Did an each way on the double so got a few quid back.
Anyway, glad to see you're back with a 100 bets to broke thread (only saw it today). A lot of spectacular results in those threads. The amount of thanks in the first post is testament to that.

longshotvalue

2:50

Hawk High is one of my plot horses for this festival. I had though he was going in the County, but he appears here at a decent price. He has a very good record fresh and i think he certainly has a decent chance here tomorrow. I'm putting it up early as i'm sure it will be backed. His run in the County last year was eye-catching and  33/1 6 places is great value.

2 Points ew 33/1 6 places Paddy/Coral

This race has 3 of my Pre-Festival handicap horse along with Hawk High, I was confident about a good run this festival from Old Guard and Hargam. Old Guard is worth a bet here at 25/1 as i think he has a touch of class along with very good course form. He was a big eye-catcher in his last 2 runs and i fully expect him to be involved at the finish here.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places 365/boyles/vc

longshotvalue

4:10

Colour Squadron was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time out at Punchestown and he really looked like he enjoyed the course but got bogged down in heavy ground near the finish after traveling well. I think the much better ground will suit him a lot better here. The longer trip is definitely a concern but his price of 28/1 is easily value in this race.

1 Point EW 28/1 1/4 odds 365/lads/coral

SQLDBA

Aidan, if Hawk High comes in you have salvaged Cheltenham for most over in the Cheltenham: Day 2 thread. including myself

longshotvalue

5:30
Doctor Harper is probably  a bigger price than I expected here and we can be fully sure that he will be tuned up for this. He ill be suited by the ground and looks has looked like he has a race like this in him for the last year or two. It seems certain that he will go off shorter that the 16/1 currently available
1 Point win 16/1 hills/32/888/unibet/betfair
4:50
As much as I love Lets Dance i really cant have the difference in price here between her and Airlie Beach over 2 miles on good ground. Its hard to know which is better at this stage but I think on what we've seen so far Airlie Beach has a better chance of beating her today than she might over a longer trip or on softer ground. 9/2 looks a couple of points too big
2 Points win 5/1 Hills 9/2 Generally
4:10
Cocktails at Dawn has looked as if this kind of race will suit him in the past, as he needs decent ground. I fancied him last time out and he seemed to be traveling well until he fell. 50/1 is easily worth a shot in the dark here. I also like another good ground specialist in Un Ace at 25/1. He should be ideally suited by this race and he can bounce of this ground of a decent mark
1/2 Point EW 50/1 Cocktails at Dawn sporting/888/netbet/unibet
1 Point win Un Ace 25/1 generally
3:30
I apologize in advance for betting with the heart but 14/1 is mental about Shaneshill. Ruby has made the price for us by jumping ship. As soon as he sees the hill he sticks his head down and flies up. Hopefully he can be close enough turning the final corner.
2 Points win 14/1 vc/lads/coral and others

longshotvalue

2:10

Aubesson has decent good ground 3 mile firm over hurdles and has looked like he is improving this year . Last years grade 1 French form would be right in the firing line here .

1 point ew 80/1 5 places vc/365/lads

aidankkk

aidankkk wrote: »

2:10

Aubesson has decent good ground 3 mile firm over hurdles and has looked like he is improving this year . Last years grade 1 French form would be right in the firing line here .

1 point ew 80/1 5 places vc/365/lads

followed you on this one

longshotvalue

2:10
I'm sure people will think Ive lost the plot here but i just cant rule out L'ami Serge at a huge price. He is mad and a poor jumper at times but no matter what way i look at it he is going to be placed here. His festival form is better than most of these, and i think what he actually needs is this fast 2 mile race. 33/1 with 6 places is a huge price
2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Paddy/Sky 5 places elsewhere
3:30
I think there is a fairly strong chance that Cue Card is a fair way clear of these. Im more or less ruling out Native River as i don't really like his form at all. That makes the 5/1 about Cue Card seems too big and worthy of a decent bet. I think he will love this test on decent ground. In addition i think Irish Cavalier is about a 10/1 shot to place making his 100/1 4 places price too big. He certainly loves good ground and was 5th last year.
2 Points win Cue Card 5/1 fred/tote/betway/32 and more
1 Point EW Irish Cavalier 100/1 4 Placs Paddy 80/1 4 Places Sky.
4:10
Mendip Express is a mad price here at 66/1. He had some of the best form last year in hunters and has s superb chance of being involved here. I also think Black Thunder is very overpriced because of a poor run last time. We can be sure today is the day for him.
1 Point EW Medip Express 66/1 4 places Paddy/VC/Betfair
1 Point EW Black Thunder 33/1 4 Places Paddy/VC/Betfair
5:30
Mr Fiftyone has been an expensive horse to follow for a long time but he will like the ground here and i like the fact that he has been sent here after a 5 month break by a trainer who just doesn't waste travel. 33/1 is worth the risk
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Magicpencil

Unlucky Aidan, Lami Serge beaten by a nose, great tip on the EW though

muletide

Went with you on L'ami Serge there Aidan.

So close - great tip

longshotvalue

4:10 Ludlow


Workbench is a difficult horse to catch on his day. I think he is overpriced here tomorrow. All his good runs have come in small field races, and if the ground gets any better than the current soft-GS in places he could be in with a real shout here as the outsider of the field at 14/1. I think he is more of an 8/1 shot so that warrants a 2 point win bet.


2 Points win 14/1 365/VC 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue

12:50 Meyden

I’m about to pick the biggest price horse I’ve ever selected, as I’m hopeful I’ve found the real value in this race tomorrow. Basateen had been a disappointing horse, but has been a bit of an eye-catcher on his last few runs and has improved with each run and each step up in trip. He was particularly eye-catching last time against the top 2 in this market when anything that could have went wrong did as he got no run at all and finished well to be 4th 3 lengths behind the fav here. He steps up another 2 furlongs here and is completely unexposed over this trip. From what I’ve seen last time this may well improve him again and if it does there is no chance he is a 200/1 shot. Now let’s not get carried away as at best he is a 33/1 or 40/1 shot here but still those margins are huge and with the added bonus of his potential stepped up again I’m all over this 200/1. IF only I could get 4 places EW, but still beggars can’t be choosers and we’ll have to make do with 3 places here. I’d be getting on early as these kinds of prices will go as soon as a few people stick on small enough EW bets.


2 Points EW 200/1 Paddy/Betfair/VC

150/1 EW w/o FAV on betfair, thats what i ended up backing.

4068ac1elhodqr

^ There are rather a few interesting 'selective price differential highlights' in this race (prices Fri at 19:30hrs).

Basateen is also available @151 (but W/O F, and still 3pl) 1/5, via PP who are also 2-300% better priced for B than anyone else!
(Shortening) Rembrandt Van Rijn is available @41 3pl 1/5, via Boyles which is 157% better than anywhere else!
Wall of Fire is BP, again with PP @17 130% better than anywhere else.

Sky is best in place terms, the only folks doing 4pl, so worth shopping around if you can. Needless to say these prices won't last.

price update 20:04