100 Bets to Broke Festival Fever

longshotvalue

2:20

Muthmir is one of my favourite sprinters and I feel he could have a big year, after being a bit disappointing last year . I rate him a bit higher than the favourite here on his day and 8/1 is value .

1 point win 8/1 generally

ShaneU

aidankkk wrote: »

Lancaster Bomber is one of the most underrated horses here judging my his very good form and huge price here. I picked him last year ew at 125/1 ew for the Dewherst and he really grounded out a second . He ran well in America and mayden without getting the breaks . He is in my view fairly short to place here at 33/1 is just too big .

2 points ew 33/1 Lads / sporting 28/1 elsewhere

4th argh was running so well

longshotvalue

1000 Guineas

Queen Kindly seems to have been written of a bit too quickly . Fillies can be inconsistent but she has plenty of form in the book that would give her a chance here . She did catch the eye on debut this year in the Fred Daring , when absolutely everything went wrong and I'm convinced she hasnt much to find on the winner of that race who is far shorter .33/1 with 4 places is certainly value .

1 point ew 33/1 4 places paddy/sky

longshotvalue

Ayr 4:30


Redvers showed a bit more in his last run last year and he has a decent record fresh. G Lee also has a very good strike rate for this trainer with 3 wins from 5 rides. He is a much better horse than this mark and if he is ready today these horses cant give him weight


2 Points win 10/1 Generally

vandriver

N/R

longshotvalue

3:35 Chester


Suegioo hasn't run in that many handicaps in the last year or 2 but he has been very consistent in group races and i think he is better than his mark of 102 here. He has of course been drawn outside which isn't as huge a problem for him as he will be coming home late. I think his place chances here are a fair bit better than the 7/1 we will get as part of his current price of 33/1 and that makes him value.


1 Point EW 33/1 hills/vc/paddy/betfair

longshotvalue

3:10 Haydock

I was very temped to write a 2 word explanation here but I won’t do that. Peace and Co should be far too good for these and I just can’t see anything that will give him any trouble at all if he is back to any kind of form. He was a big eye-catcher last time out when nothing went right, and he wasn’t given a hard race when his chance was gone. He did settle really well which was always his trouble in the past. 15/2 looks a very good price for him and he could easily outclass these and go of about 7/2. I take it as significant that he is still in training this year for this race, as I have him as a big fancy of mine for the County until he didn’t run.


3 Points win 15/2 VC/Lad/Coral/black 7/1 generally

longshotvalue

Ascot 2:50

Fire Fighting’s last win came over a fast 12 furlongs last year in Newmarket of a mark of 108. A repeat of that run here would give him a superb chance. There is nothing between a lot of these on current mark so 14/1 is certainly value


1 Point win 14/1 365/vc/stan/lads

Ascot 4:00

Professor takes a leap of faith to give him a hope here but he really has been given a chance by the handicapper. He has been improving a bit over his last few runs and arrives here fit and ready to run. He if recovers even the form of his 6th last year in the Challenge Cup over this course and distance he will be right in the firing line here as he has 15lbs less to carry now. 50/1 and 6 places with paddy power looks madness to me.


1.5 Points EW 50/1 6 places Paddy Power.

longshotvalue

Ascot 7:50 Tonight


Watchable looks to have a decent shot at this race. A lot of these aren't on form of have gone up a lot in handicap mark. In additional the favorite is having his first run this year. Watchable actually has a very good record at Ascot with 3 3rds in top class races here. 10/1 seems a few points too big .


1 Point win 10/1 365/VC/Bright

longshotvalue

Ascot 4:00

My second pick in this is another 50/1 shot Shady McCoy. He really got going last year after a good win at Goodwood. He was a very good second to Salateen which has won 3 more times since, at Newmarket in what looks a very good race. He also ran well in a big handicap at Goodwood when not getting luck in running. If he can get back to that form here he could well be closing on these at the finish and looks value to get involved.


1 Point ew 50/1 6 places Paddy Power

longshotvalue

4:00 Ascot

Professor NR


Ive decided to go with something on the other side here just in case, especially when im left with 1 selection in this race. Zhui Feng looks very interesting of his mark here combined with a step back in trip. I think he looks like a 7 furlong horse and the fact he stays further will help here in this strongly run race. He has 2 good runs already this year and could be an improving 4yo. He showed plenty of speed as a 2yo .


1 Point EW 25/1 6 places sky & paddy 25/1 5 places generally

longshotvalue

Happy with both selections in the Victoria Cup placed. Shady Mccoy made up tonnes of ground from the back, really flying at the finish.

Makes up for Peace and Co disaster

BrianBoru00

A tip of the hat yet again to you sir. Thank you .

Whiplash85

aidankkk wrote: »

Happy with both selections in the Victoria Cup placed. Shady Mccoy made up tonnes of ground from the back, really flying at the finish.

Makes up for Peace and Co disaster

Genius stuff

longshotvalue

Killarney 7:40

Air Command has some novice form that reads very well for a horse with a mark of 114. He will need to improve on his recent runs but that said he did show up well last time until a mistake 3 out put paid to any chance he had. This a big step up in trip but that should help. This race is fairly poor for a decent pot and with a light weight on his back I think he might outrun his odds here. I’m going to have a small saver on an old favorite on mine Dare To Endeavor, who would get close if he returned to form.


1 Point win Air Command 20/1 VC 18/1 Betbright
½ Point win Dare To Endeavour 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

2:55 York

Toofi has all the things I like in a sprinter here. He has a load of zero’s by his name, is a big price but showed an inkling that he is about to turn a corner. He caught the eye last time out when probably needing the run and being on the wrong side of the track. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he were to improve here and if he wants to run at Royal Ascot he will need to win this to get in. 33/1 looks well worth the risk


1 Point EW 33/1 Ladbrokes 28/1 pp/betfair

longshotvalue

6:15 Punchestown

Mr Fiftyone strikes me as the most likely winner of this race and as such 8/1 looks a big price to me. He showed a lot of improvement last time out and came good this time last year with 2 good wins around here. The second one was of a higher mark than today. I can see him going of half the price he is now.

2 Points win 8/1 365 7/1 generally

longshotvalue

York 2:20
I’ve been drawn into a small EW bet on Oasis Fantasy at a huge price here because he does have course form and is well capable of this mark. He started of poor in mayden but did improve in his second run. Once that hasn’t affected him too much he could well outrun his odds here.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 Places Coral 33/1 6 places Sky 33/1 5 places Ladbrokes

York 3:30
Baccarat isn’t as far of the pace here as his price indicates. He was poor on his last run in mayden but is right up there on his other form this year. He looks more of a 20/1 shot so he is worth a small bet at 33/1. He is a pretty solid 111 horse and if things go his way here he can get involved.
1 Point EW 4 places 33/1 sky 33/1 3 places generally

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

York 2:20
I’ve been drawn into a small EW bet on Oasis Fantasy at a huge price here because he does have course form and is well capable of this mark. He started of poor in mayden but did improve in his second run. Once that hasn’t affected him too much he could well outrun his odds here.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 Places Coral 33/1 6 places Sky 33/1 5 places Ladbrokes

York 3:30
Baccarat isn’t as far of the pace here as his price indicates. He was poor on his last run in mayden but is right up there on his other form this year. He looks more of a 20/1 shot so he is worth a small bet at 33/1. He is a pretty solid 111 horse and if things go his way here he can get involved.
1 Point EW 4 places 33/1 sky 33/1 3 places generally

Good Start Profit made for day after first race with Oasis Fantasy in 3rd . Often the way that rest rest all finish last but here hoping

Guffy

First time following you this year. Cheers Aidan. How has the thread been going for ya so far?

longshotvalue

gufc21 wrote: »

First time following you this year. Cheers Aidan. How has the thread been going for ya so far?

Recovering slowly

longshotvalue

York 4:05

Glory Awaits, gave a field of good horses a beating and weight on heavy ground in the past and if he can improve today 8:07 is a nice weight for such a classy horse in soft ground. I think 40/1 is easily worth a bet .


1 Point EW 40/1 hills/VC 33/1 Generally

sting60

Lil Sophella 8/1 York 4.35.The ground is the issue if she handles it she wins.

longshotvalue

3:00 nott


Barizan looks overpriced to place here at 33/1


1 point ew 33/1 pp 28/1 wills/vc

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

3:00 nott


Barizan looks overpriced to place here at 33/1


1 point ew 33/1 pp 28/1 wills/vc

F**k it what a horse 3rd.. .. Pity he cant be bothered trying

longshotvalue

4:55 Goodwood


Toofi ran a bit better than his placing suggested last time out when he looked to get bogged down in the ground and was on the wrong side. I think he will go close today here with a decent draw and quicker ground. He is on a very nice mark here and his next 2-3 races might well be the time to be on him. 20/1 looks great value


2 Points win 20/1 Generally

sword1

Price halved in a couple of hours, hopefully.

longshotvalue

sword1 wrote: »

Price halved in a couple of hours, hopefully.

The price has been Taylored .. Hugh put it up later this morning

longshotvalue

4:05 Haydock

Waady’s form at the beginning of last year was very good and although most of it was on softer ground he has also shown top class form on good-firm. He was 3rd last year in a much stronger renewal of this race and that form alone may well be good enough here. He looks the most underestimated here and I have him more of a 7/1 shot than the 11/1 generally available


1 Point win 11/1 Generally

2:20 Haydock

Suegioo’s form in handicaps, when he does compete in them, is actually very strong of higher marks than this. He ran well enough at Chester having been last most of the way. I think there is a great chance he can grind a win here. Parliamentarian is a possible improver and is actually the only one I’m worried about. 12/1 is about 4 points too big in my opinion


1 Point win 12/1 Generally


York 3:50

Watchable will probably try and blast out here and last home. He ran some eye-catching races in Mayden of higher marks and although he has had a typical lull after coming back I think he has a decent chance here of a great mark with a 7lbs claimer on.



1 Point win 28/1 vc/coral/black/betfair

Curragh 2:25

I’m going to follow Dinkum Diamond until he inevitably wins of this mark. He caught the eye last time, but im not sure about the jockey yet. He can certainly perform of this mark and we’ll be sticking with him as long as he is a decent price as he is a certainty to pop up at some stage this year.


1 Point win 25/1 vc/coral/boyles/black

Curragh 5:15

Felix Mendelsson sticks out here as a bit of value in this weak enough race. He is on a workable mark judging by his earlier form and if he is ready to go here he can’t be far away. 16/1 I much bigger than I would have expected.


1 Point win 16/1 Generally

racso1975

Just wanted to say cheers Aidan did singles and lucky 31 end up doubling my money. Nice one!!!!