100 Bets to Broke Festival Fever

longshotvalue

2:45 Ayr
Peace and Co is a big looking 14/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair and that just looks to good value in this race of his mark. He looks the 2nd choice here but Nicky doesn’t normally run them at this stage of the year without reason. Running of under 11st here just seems too good to be true and we’d be kicking ourselves if we went on here
1 Point win 14/1 Paddy/Betfair

longshotvalue

Ayr 4:30

I selected Gibralfaro before the Martin Pipe this year and I remember being very happy with the way he looked in the ring. He fell early but I would not be at all surprised if he ran right up to form here and if he does he can win here at a very big price. This looks a weak race and 20/1 is just massive.
2 Points win 20/1 hills/vc/coral

Newbury 3:40

Master Carpenter was a big eye-catcher for me in the Lincoln from the worst possible position and he really in on a workable mark here. He certainly can win here if things go his way and 22/1 is just way to big.


2 Points win 22/1 hill/Stan 20/1 365/vc/boyles

longshotvalue

Punchestown Day 1
4:55
Western Boy ran in this last year for us and looked to have a great chance until he fell 2 out. He has improved on the flat and if he can run here after a break he won't be far away. I've been waiting for a long time for him to pop up in a handicap and hopefully tomorrow is the day. If not I'm confident we won't be waiting long for payment. I have a sneaky suspicion that Pique Sous could run well here. He is a big price after a couple of rather poor runs on the flat but he could be really well in here on his best hurdles form and his price of 14/1 is well worth the risk

2 Points win Western Boy 16/1 365/hills/coral 14/1 elsewhere
1 Point win Pique Sous 14/1 vc/paddy/coral/betfair

Johner

World class Aidan.

Jesus Aidan fair play to you!!

Moscow is magnificent

Great shout. Though at one stage PS was gonna stay on after the last to land the forecast aswell!!

irish_major

Great picking. Paddypower paid 4 places too

hawkeyethenoo

came there tanking, there wasn't much money for it either.

longshotvalue

3:40

Benemeade hasn’t had a lot of racing over the last year or 2, but was turning into a decent chaser of a far higher mark than he gets to race of here. He has some very decent good ground hurdles form for a horse of this mark and If he can improve for his first run in a long time back in November he might be able to get involved here at a huge price.


1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Bet365

longshotvalue

4:55

Penhill won at the festival in great style but that race can be tough and the first thing to do is rule out the 2 from there. Bon Papa traveled really well in the Neptune until he encountered a lot of barging and made a mistake 2 out when looking like he was going to get seriously involved. He was pulled up after that but fairly obviously didn’t enjoy that race at all. In my view he is about a 10/1 shot here so 20/1 is far too big.


1 Point win 20/1 stars/paddy/boyles/betfair

longshotvalue

6:40

Sizing Granite showed up a bit better than he has been of late last time out over hurdles. On his best form he wins this pretty easily but he really hasn’t looked like he was putting it in at all. First time cheek pieces and good ground given him a chance of getting interested today and 14/1 is just about value. I don’t really fancy anything else in this race so it doesn’t look the strongest renewal on paper


1 Point win 14/1 hills/betfair 12/1 generally

aidankkk

aidankkk wrote: »

6:40

Sizing Granite showed up a bit better than he has been of late last time out over hurdles. On his best form he wins this pretty easily but he really hasn’t looked like he was putting it in at all. First time cheek pieces and good ground given him a chance of getting interested today and 14/1 is just about value. I don’t really fancy anything else in this race so it doesn’t look the strongest renewal on paper


1 Point win 14/1 hills/betfair 12/1 generally

Just brilliant. Thank you

laguacamaya

Why thank you sir. Once again.

stretchaq

Fair play Aidan

mickey1979

Thanks Aidan

longshotvalue

Punchestown Day3

It not that often I get excited when I see a price about a horse I’m not expecting. Pinkie Brown was 5th in this last year of this mark (albeit with a 4 yo allowance). He has certainly improved this year with some very good 2mile novice chase form. He is in the region of a stone better on his chase form this year and even improved on a flat run as well late last year. He is a prominent racer and that works well around here in these races. Neil Mullholland is hardly send him back to this race for a spin and with a decent 7lbs claimer on as well, he is surly going to get involved here. When I read this form and then looked up for a price, I was fully expecting about 12/1, but he is 28/1 with 5 places. This warrants a decent bet as he can’t go off much more that 16/1. He has one negative and that is a poor run at Cheltenham but that race was about 5 divisions up from this one.


2.5 Points EW 28/1 5 Places 365/Coral 25/1 6 places sky

longshotvalue

6:05

Sadler’s Risk is going to be hard to knock out of the places here. He has course form is a stone well in on his chase form and likes good ground. He ran a nice race last time out over hurdles on unsuitable soft ground and 40/1 seem a huge price to me.


1 Point EW 40/1 5 places paddy 33/1 6 places sky 33/1 5 places fred/365

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Its a non runner

longshotvalue

6:05

Sure Reef is my other pick in this race. He gave me the indication he may be capable of something this year on his runs earlier. He was poor at Cheltenham but we can forgive him that. If he can get back to progression on decent ground 40/1 is going to look big as he is a strong traveller.


1 Point EW40/1 6 places Sky 5 Places paddy/tote/coral

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Punchestown Day3

It not that often I get excited when I see a price about a horse I’m not expecting. Pinkie Brown was 5th in this last year of this mark (albeit with a 4 yo allowance). He has certainly improved this year with some very good 2mile novice chase form. He is in the region of a stone better on his chase form this year and even improved on a flat run as well late last year. He is a prominent racer and that works well around here in these races. Neil Mullholland is hardly send him back to this race for a spin and with a decent 7lbs claimer on as well, he is surly going to get involved here. When I read this form and then looked up for a price, I was fully expecting about 12/1, but he is 28/1 with 5 places. This warrants a decent bet as he can’t go off much more that 16/1. He has one negative and that is a poor run at Cheltenham but that race was about 5 divisions up from this one.


2.5 Points EW 28/1 5 Places 365/Coral 25/1 6 places sky

Maximum confidence repaid there. Only for the fact he ended up wide all the way around after the false start he would have gone close. Still cant comlpain:D

NaiveMelodies

aidankkk wrote: »

Maximum confidence repaid there. Only for the fact he ended up wide all the way around after the false start he would have gone close. Still cant comlpain:D

Noticed that, he was lined up perfectly on the inside for original start!! Great shout.

Super picking again Aidan

aidankkk

aidankkk wrote: »

6:05

Sure Reef is my other pick in this race. He gave me the indication he may be capable of something this year on his runs earlier. He was poor at Cheltenham but we can forgive him that. If he can get back to progression on decent ground 40/1 is going to look big as he is a strong traveller.


1 Point EW40/1 6 places Sky 5 Places paddy/tote/coral

Great place money Aidan

mickey1979

Thanks again Aidan bit unlucky backed Sure Reef in Powers only 5 places

Gary Gurny

Been following you all week aidan. thanks for the great adivce as always.

Heading to the races today myself, so a horse to look out for today would be great.

longshotvalue

In the Airport so very little time. I have a fair few cliff horses running today like Arbe De Vie, Lets Dance and MTOY but im not sure of the value.

6:40


Mendip Express has been improving with each run this year and if he can recover last years form here he has to be right there at the finish. He looks more of an 8/1 shot here so 12/1 is value


1 Point win 12/1 Generally

sting60

Very glad to see that no poster is so stupid to put up a War Front 3yr old as a bet which is great understanding by the intellectual here. I've called this stallion way back as a hopeless stallion.Now let's start with the king of hype Frankel,Useless based on the mares he got.This is the biggest ever hype for a stallion that is quite Frankel shocking in standard.There is a condition of breeding fee the progeny have to be ready to run as 2yr olds/early 3ry olds .They look awful not withstanding ITV/Racing UK hype.NO FRANKEL will contest against the big breeders in a classic this year.This is my perspective analysis of Frankel /War Front progeny.

Bozo Skeleton

Superb picking this week Aidan. As always really.

longshotvalue

3:10

Dare to Endevour is a horse that runs a big race each year st some stage . He is here on a nice mark is sure to stay and value at 40/1

1 pt ew 40/1 various

4:25

Landofhopeandglory was going to be one of my bets of the meeting, but he is not as good a price as I expected . 9/2 is fine fir a small bet . I just think his run st Cheltenham was better than it originally looked and he should be suited by this race.

1 point win 9/2 generally

5:00

Before the festival Ttebbob was on my radar for the 2 mile chase , I’m kind of surprised he has shown up here. That said I’m 100% sure he is ahead of his mark . I’ll go fir a small win bet at 20/1

1 point win 20/1 paddy & Betfair

5:35

Pique Sous caught the eye earlier this week and I’m surprised he is a huge price here when he should be suited by the longer trip.

1 point ew 33/1 5 places paddy/fred

longshotvalue

Lancaster Bomber is one of the most underrated horses here judging my his very good form and huge price here. I picked him last year ew at 125/1 ew for the Dewherst and he really grounded out a second . He ran well in America and mayden without getting the breaks . He is in my view fairly short to place here at 33/1 is just too big .

2 points ew 33/1 Lads / sporting 28/1 elsewhere