Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

catbear · 05-01-2017 02:01AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So far the big winners are the foreigners buying up UK assets at a 20% discount.

I wouldn't have too much confidence in investing in the UK now and after Brexit. We were going to buy last year but after Brexit no way. No body knows how bad things could get in the UK after Brexit.

Sterling losing its reserve currency status is a looming threat to their post Brexit borrowing needs so if they have another banking crisis, which is looking increasingly likely, then i will not be surprised if we see major social disorder.

Junkyard Tom · 05-01-2017 02:16AM

Could there be a future vote for the UK to rejoin?

Peregrinus · 05-01-2017 02:46AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Could there be a future vote for the UK to rejoin?

The UK could apply to rejoin without any vote at all, legally speaking. Politically, though, it's probably not very realistic to imagine that it would happen, except after another referendum (or maybe after a general election fought and won on an explicity manifisto commitment to apply to rejoin).

Note that the referendum wouldn't be a referendum to rejoin, strictly speaking; it would be a referendum to apply to rejoin. The British couldn't actually rejoin without the unanimous agreement of the other 27 member states. The UK was knocked back once before, remember, in 1961, and it could happen again. Frankly, they'll have burned a lot of goodwill with their carry-on up to and over Brexit, and the EU-27 won't be keen to expose themselves to a repeat performance. So they'll want to know that the UK is actually pretty enthusiastic about membership.

It's entirely hypothetical, but if the UK does actually leave the EU and then later applies to rejoin, I suspect the response will be the diplomatic equivalent of: "Tell you what. Why not join the EEA and participate in the single market without constant whinging, demands for rebates, hysterical and mendacious press campaigns spreading lies about the EU, etc, etc? After 10 years or so of grown-up behaviour you should be well-positioned to make a credible application for full membership."

MrPudding · 05-01-2017 08:59AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it is quite scary, but it really does depend on who you talk to.

Of the friends I spent most of Christmas with, all bar one voted to remain and they are very concerned, but they also have confidence in Theresa May (they have all met her and are quite happy with her as their MP and PM).

The one that voted to leave, can't wait to stick it to the Germans, which is rather odd, as he is a BMW salesman :rolleyes:

We are obviously moving in different circles. I literally don't know a single person, leave or remain, that is happy with May.

You BMW selling friend is clearly an idiot, not an uncommon trait in leave voters, in my experience.

MrP

Peregrinus · 05-01-2017 09:11AM

MrPudding wrote: »

We are obviously moving in different circles. I literally don't know a single person, leave or remain, that is happy with May.

Well, she does have the estimable characteristic of not being David Cameron, which practically everybody will see as a plus.

But I note that Fred does say that his friends "have all met her and are quite happy with her as their MP and PM".

A wild guess says his friends live in Maidenhead, which she represents, and while on the one hand they have a better-than-average opportunity to observe, meet, interact with and make informed judgments about her, on the other hand they're not necessarily a representative sample of the country at large. Leaving aside the particular demographic characteristics of Maidenhead, it's typical for residents of the PM's constituency to be, well, a bit pleased and proud that their mouthpiece is the one that has made it to the top of the greasy pole.

FrancieBrady · 05-01-2017 10:10AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's entirely hypothetical, but if the UK does actually leave the EU and then later applies to rejoin, I suspect the response will be the diplomatic equivalent of: "Tell you what. Why not join the EEA and participate in the single market without constant whinging, demands for rebates, hysterical and mendacious press campaigns spreading lies about the EU, etc, etc?

In the world of realpolitik that is the stuff that is gonna come bite them on the ass,

Fratton Fred · 05-01-2017 10:30AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

In the world of realpolitik that is the stuff that is gonna come bite them on the ass,

no, realpolitik is that the eu, particularly the larger economies, would welcome back the UK, as it is weaker without it. I know this is annoying to people like you, but it is the reality.

Fratton Fred · 05-01-2017 10:36AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

With the UK, not for the UK

There's the one about organising NI accession into the EU if there's a reunion citing East Germany as a precedent.

that's interesting actually.

If, as we are contstantly told by shinner central, reunification doesn't mean Ireland takes on NI, but a new state is formed, does that mean Ireland will have to reapply to join the eu.

If so, would the eu want them in, or would it be glad to see the back of this little tax haven

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's very easy to handwave and ask for plans when you know damn well that both sides are holding their cards close.

I thought news dumps, followed by "They have no plan" follwed by something like "you couldn't make it up" or something something empire was what this thread was all about?

Christy42 · 05-01-2017 10:49AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

no, realpolitik is that the eu, particularly the larger economies, would welcome back the UK, as it is weaker without it. I know this is annoying to people like you, but it is the reality.

It kinda depends if they trust the UK not to block what they are doing or pull another stunt like this in the near futurfuture

First Up · 05-01-2017 11:04AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

that's interesting actually.

If, as we are contstantly told by shinner central, reunification doesn't mean Ireland takes on NI, but a new state is formed, does that mean Ireland will have to reapply to join the eu.

If so, would the eu want them in, or would it be glad to see the back of this little tax haven

I thought news dumps, followed by "They have no plan" follwed by something like "you couldn't make it up" or something something empire was what this thread was all about?

Nobody needs to make much anything up. The stuff emerging from the UK on a daily basis is a rich enough diet for even the most imaginative.

Ireland's tax to GDP ratio is 30.4%. The UK's is 34.4% and the EU average 35.7%. You'd have thought a tax haven would be a bit better at it than that.

I know you ran out of arguments a while back but you don't help yourself by throwing in disparaging remarks about tax havens and gravy trains. You just make yourself look bitter.

Fratton Fred · 05-01-2017 11:19AM

First Up wrote: »

Nobody needs to make much anything up. The stuff emerging from the UK on a daily basis is a rich enough diet for even the most imaginative.

Ireland's tax to GDP ratio is 30.4%. The UK's is 34.4% and the EU average 35.7%. You'd have thought a tax haven would be a bit better at it than that.

I know you ran out of arguments a while back but you don't help yourself by throwing in disparaging remarks about tax havens and gravy trains. You just make yourself look bitter.

the eu seems to disagree with you there.

First Up · 05-01-2017 11:35AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the eu seems to disagree with you there.

Indeed. Anything to distract us:

I’m an insider and I can tell you how shambolic Brexit really is: from FCO despair over Boris to David Davis’s odd requests

With Boris rumoured to be not reading his briefs and David Davis ever-so-slightly overestimating the strength of Britain’s bargaining position, we need those dreaded experts badly

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-negotiations-government-eu-minister-ivan-rogers-boris-johnson-david-davis-foreign-office-a7508796.html

Fratton Fred · 05-01-2017 11:46AM

First Up wrote: »

Indeed. Anything to distract us:

I’m an insider and I can tell you how shambolic Brexit really is: from FCO despair over Boris to David Davis’s odd requests

With Boris rumoured to be not reading his briefs and David Davis ever-so-slightly overestimating the strength of Britain’s bargaining position, we need those dreaded experts badly

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-negotiations-government-eu-minister-ivan-rogers-boris-johnson-david-davis-foreign-office-a7508796.html

no need to shout.

First Up · 05-01-2017 11:54AM

Fratton Fred wrote:

no need to shout.

You sure about that?

Professor Moriarty · 05-01-2017 11:55AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

no, realpolitik is that the eu, particularly the larger economies, would welcome back the UK, as it is weaker without it. I know this is annoying to people like you, but it is the reality.

The problem is the damage that has been, is being and will be done to Britain politically and economically by this farce. A Tory elite populated by Old Etonians and their ilk knows nothing about real life. Nor do they actually care about the oiks outside their self-entitled circle. They have been raised on a diet of self-entitlement, the glory of a faded empire and British superiority. All of this clouds their judgement. Especially in their belief that the EU 'needs' Britain. In terms of realpolitik, their vanity blinds them to the fact that EU sentiment is shifting from accommodation to good riddance.

I feel sorry for the ordinary decent Brit, of which there are many.

First Up · 05-01-2017 11:56AM

Professor Moriarty wrote:

I feel sorry for the ordinary decent Brit, of which there are many.

Yeah but they allowed this to happen.

Professor Moriarty · 05-01-2017 11:56AM

First Up wrote: »

Yeah but they allowed this to happen.

They were deceived.

First Up · 05-01-2017 12:02PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They were deceived.

They allowed themselves be deceived.

Professor Moriarty · 05-01-2017 12:10PM

First Up wrote: »

They allowed themselves be deceived.

I don't agree. The reasons people voted for Brexit are complex and varied but one fact stands proud; the Tories (especially Cameron) created this farce for party political reasons and the likes of Johnson, Gove and Farage seized the opportunity for personal political gain.

In doing this, they lied consistently throughout the campaign. Perhaps people were foolish to believe populist nonsense such as the NHS windfall, but the British press (in large part controlled by self-serving elitist Little Englanders) has been feeding the public a diet of anti-EU rubbish for decades, all of which was dressed up as 'news'. And so the public voted on what they thought was fact.

Fratton Fred · 05-01-2017 12:21PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The problem is the damage that has been, is being and will be done to Britain politically and economically by this farce. A Tory elite populated by Old Etonians and their ilk knows nothing about real life. Nor do they actually care about the oiks outside their self-entitled circle. They have been raised on a diet of self-entitlement, the glory of a faded empire and British superiority. All of this clouds their judgement. Especially in their belief that the EU 'needs' Britain. In terms of realpolitik, their vanity blinds them to the fact that EU sentiment is shifting from accommodation to good riddance

Yes, there were Tory ex-etonians on the leave side (although Boris is the only one that springs to mind) but there were also Tory Ex-Etonians on the remain side as well. Just as there were Labour, Liberal and Tory on MPs from all back grounds on both sides of the campaign.

Lazy generalisations like this is why the remain campaign failed, miserably, to get their message across.

Professor Moriarty · 05-01-2017 12:28PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Yes, there were Tory ex-etonians on the leave side (although Boris is the only one that springs to mind) but there were also Tory Ex-Etonians on the remain side as well. Just as there were Labour, Liberal and Tory on MPs from all back grounds on both sides of the campaign.

Lazy generalisations like this is why the remain campaign failed, miserably, to get their message across.

You are not understanding my point. Note that my post didn't mention remain or leave.

First Up · 05-01-2017 12:28PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't agree. The reasons people voted for Brexit are complex and varied but one fact stands proud; the Tories (especially Cameron) created this farce for party political reasons and the likes of Johnson, Gove and Farage seized the opportunity for personal political gain.

In doing this, they lied consistently throughout the campaign. Perhaps people were foolish to believe populist nonsense such as the NHS windfall, but the British press (in large part controlled by self-serving elitist Little Englanders) has been feeding the public a diet of anti-EU rubbish for decades, all of which was dressed up as 'news'. And so the public voted on what they thought was fact.

The Brexit vote was not an isolated decision. It was the culmination of decades of a hostility and suspicion of Europe (especially Germany) that has become embedded in British culture. Five minutes in the vicinity of English football supporters and you have the full picture of where their culture sits.

The media played their part but the British public have allowed that sort of media to flourish. The Daily Mail should be laughed out of it but about 4 million buy it every day. There's lots of Little Englanders lower down the social order too.

Yes, there was an element of a North/South protest vote that had nothing to do with the EU but not enough people (a) understood what was at stake or (b) cared enough about it to vote.

Their fault; their problem. We will suffer more collateral damage than most and some consequences remain to be seen. But its mostly their mess to sort out.

MrPudding · 05-01-2017 12:31PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't agree. The reasons people voted for Brexit are complex and varied but one fact stands proud; the Tories (especially Cameron) created this farce for party political reasons and the likes of Johnson, Gove and Farage seized the opportunity for personal political gain.

In doing this, they lied consistently throughout the campaign. Perhaps people were foolish to believe populist nonsense such as the NHS windfall, but the British press (in large part controlled by self-serving elitist Little Englanders) has been feeding the public a diet of anti-EU rubbish for decades, all of which was dressed up as 'news'. And so the public voted on what they thought was fact.

Sorry, not good enough. I spoke to dozens of leave voters in the run up to to the vote as I manned a "Vote Remain" desk in my town. Yes there were lies, but many people didn't care, point out the lies to them and the response was, "yeah well, I don't care". I have no doubt there were many that did vote leave having believed lies, but there were many that simply didn't care.

Even now, when we know there were lies, and we know things are bad and will get worse, there are plenty of people still saying they are happy with having voted to leave.

In the words of the great Gregory House MD, "you can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into."

MrP

Professor Moriarty · 05-01-2017 12:34PM

First Up wrote: »

The Brexit vote was not an isolated decision. It was the culmination of decades of a hostility and suspicion of Europe (especially Germany) that has become embedded in British culture. Five minutes in the vicinity of English football supporters and you have the full picture of where their culture sits.

The media played their part but the British public have allowed that sort of media to flourish. The Daily Mail should be laughed out of it but about 4 million buy it every day. There's lots of Little Englanders lower down the social order too.

Yes, there was an element of a North/South protest vote that had nothing to do with the EU but not enough people (a) understood what was at stake or (b) cared enough about it to vote.

Their fault; their problem. We will suffer more collateral damage than most and some consequences remain to be seen. But its mostly their mess to sort out.

Agreed. The Torygraph, Express and Mail have been conditioning people's minds from cradle to grave. Unbelievably, The News of the World used to be the biggest selling paper in Britain so maybe people did choose scandal over news.

Professor Moriarty · 05-01-2017 12:42PM

MrPudding wrote: »

Sorry, not good enough. I spoke to dozens of leave voters in the run up to to the vote as I manned a "Vote Remain" desk in my town. Yes there were lies, but many people didn't care, point out the lies to them and the response was, "yeah well, I don't care". I have no doubt there were many that did vote leave having believed lies, but there were many that simply didn't care.

Even now, when we know there were lies, and we know things are bad and will get worse, there are plenty of people still saying they are happy with having voted to leave.

In the words of the great Gregory House MD, "you can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into."

MrP

Absolutely. However, consider this point. Given the narrow margin, the lies would have significantly tipped the balance in favour of leave i.e. they were the crucial factor. Also, as I've said in other posts, the conditioning of Joe Bloggs into believing in 'Britain good, EU bad' had been endemic for decades. They were lied to throughout the campaign and insidiously lied to for a very long time. For some, the conditioning has been so perfect that if the Tories took a collective dump on their heads, they would tip their forelock to their betters and sing God Save The Queen.

Fratton Fred · 05-01-2017 12:55PM

It's funny how the Tories are the ones blamed for Brexit, yet Labour were Euro sceptic for years and the Labour strongholds generally voted to leave.

Professor Moriarty · 05-01-2017 12:58PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It's funny how the Tories are the ones blamed for Brexit, yet Labour were Euro sceptic for years and the Labour strongholds generally voted to leave.

The Tories, alone, created Brexit for party political reasons. Labour haven't been in government for six years and 65% of Labour voters voted Remain..

Fratton Fred · 05-01-2017 02:02PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Tories, alone, created Brexit for party political reasons. Labour haven't been in government for six years and 65% of Labour voters voted Remain..

that surprise me, when you consider places like Sunderland and Bradford, which are very strong Labour regions wards voted to leave.

What percentage of Tory voters voted to remain?

jmayo · 05-01-2017 02:05PM

catbear wrote: »

Thanks for that but I'm sure I read we import more from the UK than we export to.

As Fratton Fred mentioned some of that may be just movement of goods through UK and onto Ireland.
A lot of our distribution goes through UK.
Buy IT hardware from Irish distributor and more often than not it is sourced out of warehouse in UK.
Are these technically UK imports even though made in China ?

Also what about the likes of Tesco, PCWorld, Currys, Argos, all the major UK chains that operate here.
They are all brought through UK distribution channels.

catbear wrote: »

And of the 40% food we export to the UK, what percentage is it of our overall export?

Not a lot if you count all those CDs/DVDs, sorry downloads from Mickiesoft, etc, those pills from pfizer or the stents from Boston Scientific.

But then again these companies transfer their profits to overseas owners, or at least to shell companies in the Caymans, Bermuda, etc and they can as has been shown over the decades up sticks when it suits them.
On the other hand the farms, the Dairy Coops, the meat producers (grand bunch of ... can't really say what I think or will be banned) are home grown and continue to operate here.
There are a hell of a lot of people working in agri sector and even outside agri there huge numbers working in little SMEs dependent on UK market.
What is the first market most SMEs target after indigenous one ?

Even looking at some of Ireland's bigger non agri related companies, i would bet a sizable market for the likes of kingspan and Glen Dimplex is the UK.

When the likes of Motorola, Xerox, Dell, Gateway, NEC, Seagate, APC, Lapple either drastically cut jobs or close altogether those old meat plants and dairy plants will still be going.
Of course the argument is that we are no longer really manufacturing but up the value chain.
Tell that to those engineers who lost their jobs in Motorola or those who lost their jobs in 2010 due to corporate restructuring in Pfizer, Schering Plough and GSK.

catbear wrote: »

Anyway what seems more important and not often mentioned is the UK export to Ireland, refined oil.

Edit: the Uk only accounts for 14% of our total exports, a hell of a lot less than I had thought but accounts for 33% of our imports!

Well if you are happy that an ever increasing amount of our exports, and thus jobs, are dependent on a company HQed out of Redmond, Santa Clara, Round Rock, Marlborough, New York then shure what is there to worry about.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Remember Larry Goodman the exports of Beef to the Middle East ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Goodman#War_in_Iraq_and_emergency_legislation
All sorts of dodgy. It's not a good thing to have so much of our GDP going through one individual.

Ehhh site rules and libel laws prevent me from offering my true opinion on that guy and his operations.
I only know too well how organised (think mafia in this sense) the beef industry is in this country.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

But we are well suited to export Halal (and Kosher) beef to the Middle East and other places where our neutrality is an asset. We have quality products. Yes New Zealand might benefit from Brexit but it's not like we won't be able export our food.

Speaking of Goodman I remember another venture into the Middle East market that ended up costing the taxpayers dearly.
And please don't drag in the "neutrality" mullarkey.

At what cost to producers will these new export markets come into being ?
You have increased shipping costs to other markets and you may have to counter cheaper products that are allowed into the market due to lower quality controls and less strict standards.
For instance competing purely on price against South American beef means Irish exports are at significant disadvantage.

catbear wrote: »

Actually back a few months ago at a commonwealth nations meetup the message was very clear that the post brexit weakness of sterling was already hitting the likes of NZ and they warned that further reduction of UK purchasing power would only make their producers seek out more lucrative markets.

New Zealand has been aiming at Asian markets for quiet some time and also Chinese have begun to invest in New Zealand agri sector.
Trust me NZ is a lot closer to China than we are.

A Little Pony · 05-01-2017 02:54PM

marienbad wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Why would Ireland join schengen, if it means a hard border?

Goods is harder, but there are similar issues facing a lot of industries already, particularly aircraft manufacture. The eu could give Ireland a special exemption and I believe Angela Merkal has already mentioned this, or at least recognised Ireland is a special case.

We opted out of Schengen only because the UK did , but with the UK outside the EU it is different going forward .

And I don't see how the EU can give us an exemption even if they are willing to do so . We could end up in some sort of grey zone neither in or out of the EU or the UK . And none of it by choice , but such is the fate of small nations .

I see no way round a hard border for goods .

You don't want to be in Schengen. Count yourself lucky in that regard. No one wants an Islamic terrorist dying in Cork or Dublin after committing an atrocity in Berlin or Paris.

Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

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