Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

FrancieBrady · 21-10-2016 12:48PM

Sensible warning.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1020/825650-brexit-ni/

Peter Sheridan, Chief Executive, Cooperation Ireland issued the warning during a meeting of the joint Oireachtas Committee on the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement.

The committee met to look at the implications of Brexit for the Good Friday Agreement.

Mr Sheridan, who is a former Assistant Chief Constable of the PSNI, said, "The protection of the Peace Process is critical.

"We all known it was only last year that we had the Fresh Start Agreement and the year before we had the Stormont House Agreement that shows the fragile nature of politics in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement as a guarantor of that agreement.

"It is a important of our work to ensure there is no diminution in the Good Friday Agreement or unravelling of the Good Friday Agreement.

"I don't want to overstate it but there is a danger that ultimately this could lead to some civil unrest particularly in relation to the Border."

Fratton Fred · 21-10-2016 12:53PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Let's not pretend that there is a UK establishment. There's an English establishment which you understood calls the shots.

David Cameron's father was Scottish. Iain Duncan Smith, ex Tory party leader and leading Brexit campaigner was born in Scotland. His deputy at the time, Michael Ancram is now the 13th Marquess of Lothian and hereditary chief of Clan Kerr.

The two preceding PMs to David Cameron, Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, were both Scottish.

Current defence secretary Sir Michael Fallon, was born in Perth and his predecessor, Liam Fox is a Glaswegian.

Sounds like the "Establishment" is more than just English.

steddyeddy · 21-10-2016 12:53PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sensible warning.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1020/825650-brexit-ni/

And with the economic slump that NI will experience after Brexit, people won't be getting any happier.

The Rape of Lucretia · 21-10-2016 02:09PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

And with the economic slump that NI will experience after Brexit, people won't be getting any happier.

Not necessarily true. They may find that they are much happier when they get used to having taken back control. That will be the real Brexit dividend, that more than compensates for the various downsides that has non British observers scratching their heads about.

swampgas · 21-10-2016 02:16PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Not necessarily true. They may find that they are much happier when they get used to having taken back control. That will be the real Brexit dividend, that more than compensates for the various downsides that has non British observers scratching their heads about.

That's a vague concept right now, I wonder what concrete changes will occur that would be considered taking back control?

An obvious change of immigration policy, making it much more restrictive?

Removing employee rights? Can't see that being popular.

Deporting undesirables? Maybe.

I'm really curious to see what (if anything) "taking back control" will actually mean.

FrancieBrady · 21-10-2016 02:21PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Not necessarily true. They may find that they are much happier when they get used to having taken back control. That will be the real Brexit dividend, that more than compensates for the various downsides that has non British observers scratching their heads about.

Ignoring the fact that it was 'control' that caused the conflict in the first place.

wes · 21-10-2016 02:31PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Not necessarily true. They may find that they are much happier when they get used to having taken back control. That will be the real Brexit dividend, that more than compensates for the various downsides that has non British observers scratching their heads about.

They voted to stay. Brexit is the exact opposite of taking back control for Northern Ireland and Scotland. They will in fact find that they have very little in the way of control.

In light of that fact, and the very real threat to the Good Friday agreement, your statement is imho rather farcical. If things do go bad in regards to the Good Friday agreement, it will be Brexiters who will be held responsible. A lot of good work put in danger in the name of vague nonsense.

indioblack · 21-10-2016 03:04PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

David Cameron's father was Scottish. Iain Duncan Smith, ex Tory party leader and leading Brexit campaigner was born in Scotland. His deputy at the time, Michael Ancram is now the 13th Marquess of Lothian and hereditary chief of Clan Kerr.

The two preceding PMs to David Cameron, Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, were both Scottish.

Current defence secretary Sir Michael Fallon, was born in Perth and his predecessor, Liam Fox is a Glaswegian.

Sounds like the "Establishment" is more than just English.

All we need now is Mel Gibson.

steddyeddy · 21-10-2016 03:57PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Not necessarily true. They may find that they are much happier when they get used to having taken back control. That will be the real Brexit dividend, that more than compensates for the various downsides that has non British observers scratching their heads about.

James Brokenshire, sec of state will be the only one at Brexit negotiations from NI.

A Little Pony · 21-10-2016 05:48PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

steddyeddy wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

I knew we would win, the feeling in the country outside the elite class and political class was apparent among the people who live in the real world.

I get that 100%. Areas like Hull boted out. Hull has suffered from very low government investment and wanted to protest that. They protested against the wrong thing however. They won the referendum but will lose socially, economically and the UK will be more divided.

This is exactly it. I can absolutely understand that large swathes of England feel disenfranchised and like they've been left behind, particularly the north of England. But leaving the EU does nothing to fix this. In fact it'll likely make it worse. The reality of the situation is that the UK has now lost it's tariff-free access to the EU. As the head of Toyota UK said, no brexit deal will ever be as good as the free deal they've been enjoying up until now. On top of that, the UK is now going to be a lone fish in a very big pond trying to negotiate trade deals for the very first time in near 50 years which far more experience, far bigger fish. It absolutely will not achieve better trade terms than it did as part of the largest economy on the planet, and on the extreme off-chance that it does, it will be at the expense of workers rights and standards.

NI & Wales are going to be particularly badly hit, especially considering they will have no voice at the negotiating table. Scotland is the largest region after England and has Nicola Sturgeon who despite also not having a voice during negotiations, has been especially vocal and from previous track record will ensure that Scotland is heard. Theresa May will look after the interests of the UK as a whole, but the interests of the entire UK are not necessarily those of NI and Wales. Making up the lost EU structural funds into NI on top of the 11 billion pounds she already gives them and the border with Ireland will be very low down on her list of priorities. Ultimately, while a hard border would certainly damage both ROI & NI culturally and socially, it wouldn't have much of an economic impact on the south. NI accounts for ~1.5% of our exports but we account for 40% of theirs. Our trade with mainland Britain, which is the bulk of our UK trade, is unaffected by the presence of a hard border with NI

Ulster will live on, we have got through many things in our history. Brexit will be the best thing to have happened to the province since William of Orange tied his horse next to Scarva tree.

tomwaterford · 21-10-2016 05:58PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Ulster will live on, we have got through many things in our history. Brexit will be the best thing to have happened to the province since William of Orange tied his horse next to Scarva tree.

Tbf it will

It'll be coming back to reunification with the free state and bavk into Europe

:P

A Little Pony · 21-10-2016 06:04PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Ulster will live on, we have got through many things in our history. Brexit will be the best thing to have happened to the province since William of Orange tied his horse next to Scarva tree.

Tbf it will

It'll be coming back to reunification with the free state and bavk into Europe :P

Make peace brother.

Grayson · 21-10-2016 06:08PM

Apparently May expects the UK to have no diminished role before Article 50 is complete

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/21/theresa-may-uk-centre-of-european-decision-making-until-brexit

Is she known for having any type of mental issues? She's intent on blocking EU projects right up until they leave.

FrancieBrady · 21-10-2016 06:19PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Ulster will live on, we have got through many things in our history. Brexit will be the best thing to have happened to the province since William of Orange tied his horse next to Scarva tree.

There is a difference between living and just existing. The darkest days of the 70's and 80's beckon, rising tensions and society regressing.

Iwasfrozen · 21-10-2016 06:34PM

wes wrote: »

They voted to stay. Brexit is the exact opposite of taking back control for Northern Ireland and Scotland. They will in fact find that they have very little in the way of control.

In light of that fact, and the very real threat to the Good Friday agreement, your statement is imho rather farcical. If things do go bad in regards to the Good Friday agreement, it will be Brexiters who will be held responsible. A lot of good work put in danger in the name of vague nonsense.

If some party break the good Friday agreement that will be the fault of that government. Not the British electorate. No where in the GFA guarantees free access between the two nations.

tomwaterford · 21-10-2016 06:37PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

If some party break the good Friday agreement that will be the fault of that government. Not the British electorate. No where in the GFA guarantees free access between the two nations.

No where deos it propose increased security along the border either??

The British government is the representative of the electorate.....you do understand democracy??

FrancieBrady · 21-10-2016 06:39PM

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14812067.Iain_Macwhirter__Panic__We___re_led_by_a_Dad___s_Army_of_Brexiter_buffoons/?ref=fbshr

Fratton Fred · 21-10-2016 06:40PM

Grayson wrote: »

Apparently May expects the UK to have no diminished role before Article 50 is complete

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/21/theresa-may-uk-centre-of-european-decision-making-until-brexit

Is she known for having any type of mental issues? She's intent on blocking EU projects right up until they leave.

What's the problem, she is saying the UK will remain an active member. The only blocking going on is from the Waloons from what I can see.

Iwasfrozen · 21-10-2016 06:40PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

No where deos it propose increased security along the border either??

The British government is the representative of the electorate.....you do understand democracy??

I never said it did. If something is not prohibited by an agreement it cannot be said to be a breach of said agreement. Free access is not guaranteed by the GFA so restricting free access cannot be said to be in breach of the GFA.

And the British government, as representaties of the British people.must implement the will of the British people. Don't you know how democracy works?

steddyeddy · 21-10-2016 07:11PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Ulster will live on, we have got through many things in our history. Brexit will be the best thing to have happened to the province since William of Orange tied his horse next to Scarva tree.

How will the North benefit economically?

steddyeddy · 21-10-2016 07:13PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What's the problem, she is saying the UK will remain an active member. The only blocking going on is from the Waloons from what I can see.

The UK is leaving the EU. It shouldn't have much of a say in the future of EU citizens.

130Kph · 21-10-2016 07:15PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Ulster will live on, we have got through many things in our history. Brexit will be the best thing to have happened to the province since William of Orange tied his horse next to Scarva tree.

Ah sure begorrah & bejaysus that auld shtuff was all a big misunderstanding. Shure mosht of us have forgotton it long long ago.

I think the Cattle Raid of Cooley is probably the last really best thing to happen in Ulster. I don’t think Brexit can beat that.

Enzokk · 21-10-2016 07:24PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What's the problem, she is saying the UK will remain an active member. The only blocking going on is from the Waloons from what I can see.

I believe it has to do with the UK having a say in where the EU heads in future when they will have no future in the EU. Seems to make sense that there is some head shaking in the EU when the UK wants to leave the EU and have nothing to do with the EU.

It would be better for the UK to take a back seat in current EU affairs and not meddle, it will be worse for the UK if the EU plays hardball in the negotiations so they will have to tread carefully in my opinion.

FrancieBrady · 21-10-2016 07:27PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I believe it has to do with the UK having a say in where the EU heads in future when they will have no future in the EU. Seems to make sense that there is some head shaking in the EU when the UK wants to leave the EU and have nothing to do with the EU.

It would be better for the UK to take a back seat in current EU affairs and not meddle, it will be worse for the UK if the EU plays hardball in the negotiations so they will have to tread carefully in my opinion.

May got the cold shoulder yesterday, correctly IMO.
You can't have it both ways guys!

tomwaterford · 21-10-2016 07:28PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I never said it did. If something is not prohibited by an agreement it cannot be said to be a breach of said agreement. Free access is not guaranteed by the GFA so restricting free access cannot be said to be in breach of the GFA.

?

So we imagined all those parts of the GFA referring to demilitarising the north??

And reduced security services presence.....all of which gives dissidents a standing target to go after everyday.....especially since the British army can't be deployed anymore without Stormonts approval ??

Fratton Fred · 21-10-2016 07:30PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK is leaving the EU. It shouldn't have much of a say in the future of EU citizens.

Until such a time as it leaves, the British are eu citizens.

tomwaterford · 21-10-2016 07:37PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Until such a time as it leaves, the British are eu citizens.

^^^this is ture

But we're you not complaining before about older people what voted for brexit as long term wouldn't affect them

indioblack · 21-10-2016 07:46PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Until such a time as it leaves, the British are eu citizens.

It's a member state that will eventually, unless there's some change, leave.
I don't see us carrying much weight in any debates whilst we are in the two year holding position prior to actual exit.
The mechanism of exiting the EU hasn't been invoked, but May's message has been clear - the UK will leave.
I'm not sure how useful these two years can be - yet and at the same time they're vital.

tomwaterford · 21-10-2016 08:04PM

indioblack wrote: »

It's a member state that will eventually, unless there's some change, leave.
I don't see us carrying much weight in any debates whilst we are in the two year holding position prior to actual exit.
The mechanism of exiting the EU hasn't been invoked, but May's message has been clear - the UK will leave.
I'm not sure how useful these two years can be - yet and at the same time they're vital.

Tbh....short of a euro crisis/massive terrorism flare up....can't see much being discussed other than brexit for at least 18 months or so

indioblack · 21-10-2016 08:17PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

Tbh....short of a euro crisis/massive terrorism flare up....can't see much being discussed other than brexit for at least 18 months or so

If so, that should be a positive for the UK.
Some politicians have reacted with an attitude of, "If you're going to go, go."
18 months of Brexit talks? Hope they've got the stamina of AH posters!
Hopefully it will settle down to the practical business of leaving - it's in everyone's interest, [especially the UK's], to make it work.
That will allow us whinging Remainers to continue carping from the sidelines.

Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

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