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Wildcard Thread 2016/2017
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Your answers are about your playing philosophy. That's grant. But does it really work? Have you ever looked at it in detail? I sometimes have the feeling that you only look at the bright side of it. For example you cited Firmino & Eriksen. But you could have cited Lamela & Stones instead.
As I said, I played like that for several seasons (3 and a half to 4 I'd say) before asking myself "what if I'm wrong?". I actually realised it 3 years ago during my best ever season. I was rotating GKs and tracked their record over the entire season (yeah the statistico site stole it from me :pac:). I found out I had almost as many benched GK points than actual GK pts. So I compared with going for a premium GK + Jaku style or even a non-playing second one and with a doubling on the same team (WB for example
). And even accounting for a couple of -4s for changing the premium keeper when injured or the pairing when both got injured, both headaches-less options would have given me more points (enough to break into top 1k in that very season). Hence my questioning of the rotation philosophy. That said, maybe I'm just bad at it. Maybe I was unlucky for that very season. But maybe it doesn't work as well as we generally think it is...
Last year, I made a big early mistake with not going for a long self-debated GW3 WC (diff was something like 30 pts in a single GW). So, it gave me the idea to track it. I mean to track my non early-WC team for about ... half the season when I started not to be a*sed anymore. Every single GW, I was kinda playing with my non-existing team, I followed its value, I non-made the transfers I'd have done, I non-selected the captains I'd have gone for, I'd non-counted the points I'd have scored etc... I really tried to be as honest as I could. I have no a priori bias towards any playing style. I, for example, did not non-transferred in players I'd have not thought about. I actually quickly ended up with a very lookalike team than my actual one.
At some point I had a strong front 8 (pre, during and post Christmas up to about February). Something I couldn't have done with my non-early WC team bar taking significant pts hits (-8 min and for at least 1 player to be benched) which I assumed I'd have not done (I never did), particularly over Christmas. So I also compared the non-rotation style I'd have non-gone for. Result was rotation gave me less points. Team value was slightly better (though it was difficult to really compare since the early non-WC had already helped a lot my non-team). So, again, maybe I'm not good enough, maybe I was unlucky, maybe the sample size is too small, maybe whatever, but maybe it's not as efficient as we think it is?
Because I have to admit that despite the frustration of big points on the bench from time to time, I genuinely thought it was working overall (e.g. had a couple of times players I'd have never owned in my non-existing team delivering big points). But you have to compare it as a whole and over time. e.g. If your fodder only came up with 2 pointers when needed, you also have to factor that for a period of time he may have allowed you KDB big hauls alongside Sanchez, Agüero and Kane for example.
Anyway, I'm not definite on it despite these 2 negative experiences. And I guess I'm the only mad one to have tracked such things so I'm actually probably asking a question noone but me can answer :rolleyes: :pac:...0 -
I'm glad I'm not the most addicted FPL player here thenYour answers are about your playing philosophy. That's grant. But does it really work? Have you ever looked at it in detail? I sometimes have the feeling that you only look at the bright side of it. For example you cited Firmino & Eriksen. But you could have cited Lamela & Stones instead.
As I said, I played like that for several seasons (3 and a half to 4 I'd say) before asking myself "what if I'm wrong?". I actually realised it 3 years ago during my best ever season. I was rotating GKs and tracked their record over the entire season (yeah the statistico site stole it from me :pac:). I found out I had almost as many benched GK points than actual GK pts. So I compared with going for a premium GK + Jaku style or even a non-playing second one and with a doubling on the same team (WB for example). And even accounting for a couple of -4s for changing the premium keeper when injured or the pairing when both got injured, both headaches-less options would have given me more points (enough to break into top 1k in that very season). Hence my questioning of the rotation philosophy. That said, maybe I'm just bad at it. Maybe I was unlucky for that very season. But maybe it doesn't work as well as we generally think it is...
Last year, I made a big early mistake with not going for a long self-debated GW3 WC (diff was something like 30 pts in a single GW). So, it gave me the idea to track it. I mean to track my non early-WC team for about ... half the season when I started not to be a*sed anymore. Every single GW, I was kinda playing with my non-existing team, I followed its value, I non-made the transfers I'd have done, I non-selected the captains I'd have gone for, I'd non-counted the points I'd have scored etc... I really tried to be as honest as I could. I have no a priori bias towards any playing style. I, for example, did not non-transferred in players I'd have not thought about. I actually quickly ended up with a very lookalike team than my actual one.
At some point I had a strong front 8 (pre, during and post Christmas up to about February). Something I couldn't have done with my non-early WC team bar taking significant pts hits (-8 min and for at least 1 player to be benched) which I assumed I'd have not done (I never did), particularly over Christmas. So I also compared the non-rotation style I'd have non-gone for. Result was rotation gave me less points. Team value was slightly better (though it was difficult to really compare since the early non-WC had already helped a lot my non-team). So, again, maybe I'm not good enough, maybe I was unlucky, maybe the sample size is too small, maybe whatever, but maybe it's not as efficient as we think it is?
Because I have to admit that despite the frustration of big points on the bench from time to time, I genuinely thought it was working overall (e.g. had a couple of times players I'd have never owned in my non-existing team delivering big points). But you have to compare it as a whole and over time. e.g. If your fodder only came up with 2 pointers when needed, you also have to factor that for a period of time he may have allowed you KDB big hauls alongside Sanchez, Agüero and Kane for example.
Anyway, I'm not definite on it despite these 2 negative experiences. And I guess I'm the only mad one to have tracked such things so I'm actually probably asking a question noone but me can answer :rolleyes: :pac:...0 -
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Poker Face wrote: »On a wildcard and would you go
A) KDB, Chadli, Diomande
Sterling, Fletcher, Lukaku
Other front 5 are Firmino, Sanchez, Capoue, Costa and Aguero
I can see Sterling keeping pace with KDB or at least not losing by much as Lukaku will crush Chadli. Also Diomande could lose his spot (and probably will imo) to Mbokani.0 -
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Poker Face wrote: »On a wildcard and would you go
A) KDB, Chadli, Diomande Sterling, Fletcher, Lukaku
Other front 5 are Firmino, Sanchez, Capoue, Costa and Aguero
I would say B as well. I seem to be the only one wary of bringing Sterling into my team with the prospect of rotations for the League Cup and CL with so many attacking options. Although that threat reduced significantly with Nolito's red card at least for two PL games.
On the Snodgrass/ Capoue debate - their fixtures run nicely togethor in that one player is playing a hard opposition at the same time the other has an easy fixture. If Capoue's form returns to few or no goals after a while (notably GW10 where fixtures become worse), I may have to sell him myself to tie up some cash so I'm not sure how it'll play out with Watford's luxurious fixtures.
Haven't put too much thought into my 15 yet as I'm just logging in to catch rises but I might have something like this as my 8:
Capoue Sterling (not keen on) Sanchez (also not keen on after selling him before his hauls) Snodgrass Antonio (would prefer something more adventurous like Lanzini though)
Costa Aguero Lukaku0 -
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