Current Weather indications

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote:

Just to clear up something:Tuesday's cold is only going to be very
short lived lasting from Monday 9pm to around Tuesday 1800

The longer but drier cold spell is likely this Weekend and is likely
to last fro 60-84hrs

so when the cold weather hits next weekend you dont think there will be any snow fall with it?

ninebeanrows

Not much away from the north and west

ninebeanrows

As we move into Monday Evening things are looking very interesting for
the north and west as very cold air digs into much of Britain but what
is very exciting is the fact that GFS brings alot of Precipitation with the
cold. The precipitation is present in large amounts over Ireland even in
the East and over Western Britain for 18 hours With the chance of
Widspread snow. 850hpa Temperatures drop below -5c on the British
West Coast by 1800 with 528dam line just in front with thickness levels
falling very low in western Ireland as low as 516dam for a time.
It could get very interesting with the possibility of a prolonged
feed of Heavy snow showers over Ireland, West South Uk and
western Scotland
Couple that with Gales with gusts reaching 70mph in places and boom, its fun :P

850hpa Temperatures
18z Monday
00zTuesday
06z Tuesday
12z Tuesday

Thickness Levels
18z Monday
00zTuesday
06z Tuesday
12z Tuesday

Precipitation
18z Monday
00zTuesday
06z Tuesday
12z Tuesday

ninebeanrows

Even the Higher Resolution more relied on Models go for snow

Very interesting Meteogram for Dublin

See the precip section near the bottom of the image

http://www.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/meteogr/nmm22/DUBL.PNG

ninebeanrows

Sorry bout earlier havent been on here since the server
went bust, i thought the Model Mayhem thread was
different to discussing a upcoming physical weather event
anways.. moving swiftly on....

It looks like much colder weather will arrive later today and take
over for the next 3 days, it will be mostly dry but there is a chance
of some light snow over the midlands and east tomorrow as
temperatures continue to fall..

England is set for a prolonged period of cold as very cold air
on the continent slips in, the cold air is only likely reach
more eastern areas of Ireland but with High Pressure in
control snowfall will be very unlikely. Very hard frosts are
likely on Saturday through Tuesday with cold days and
temperatures not above 5c on those days, it will be cloudy
along the east coast with temperatures struggling under
the thick coat of cloud further inland it will be much brighter
and pleseant. Western areas are likely to be less cold with
milder air arriving by Monday..


As we move into next week two things are possible, the High pressure
will slip south allowing a more zonal flow or High pressure will push
in from Siberia to deliver a longer Easterly Blast

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Sorry bout earlier havent been on here since the server
went bust, i thought the Model Mayhem thread was
different to discussing a upcoming physical weather event
anways.. moving swiftly on....

It looks like much colder weather will arrive later today and take
over for the next 3 days, it will be mostly dry but there is a chance
of some light snow over the midlands and east tomorrow as
temperatures continue to fall..

England is set for a prolonged period of cold as very cold air
on the continent slips in, the cold air is only likely reach
more eastern areas of Ireland but with High Pressure in
control snowfall will be very unlikely. Very hard frosts are
likely on Saturday through Tuesday with cold days and
temperatures not above 5c on those days, it will be cloudy
along the east coast with temperatures struggling under
the thick coat of cloud further inland it will be much brighter
and pleseant. Western areas are likely to be less cold with
milder air arriving by Monday..


As we move into next week two things are possible, the High pressure
will slip south allowing a more zonal flow or High pressure will push
in from Siberia to deliver a longer Easterly Blast

Good post Weathercheck ..was expecting to see you say Dublin was about to be buried under 45cm's of snow :P (j/k)
The ensembles and synops most definately have massive potential even here..abeit with low probability..but this year at least it is a probability above 0% which is an improvement in the last few!!

ninebeanrows

This day can be summed up as follows:
I had Granville and Routledge on the bench
for my Fantasy Football team So
close but so far

Gonzo

according to sky news and bbc we will see cold/cool but very dry and sunny weather till about monday and milder weather by tuesday and temperatures into double figures by wednesday with only the far south east of england seeing cold weather with sleet/snow showers till next thursday or friday. As usuall Ireland remains the only european country to have mild boring atlantic weather & high snow sheild in place winter after winter...heavy snow is due in most of europe this week.. even the costa del sol/southern france/italy and greece and north africa is likely to see heavy snow falls this week, its in the charts...
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/108_30.gif

Danno

Hmmmm, I dunno, MetO Ireland are going for a sleety snowy outbreak around midweek!

I have seen snow tonight as a result of this NE blast!

Seems, that no matter what way the wind is blowing this winter that we get snow in Laois this winter (provided that the air is cold enough), which makes a big change from the winters since feb 2001!

billy the squid

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/ukrainfall_06.shtml

no so much as a flake of snow here in Limerick. BBC radar no showing any precipitation over ireland (link above)

something happening off the west coast as thereseems to be some lightning

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=charts;type=uklightning

ninebeanrows

Is maith liom

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501230000_168.gif

Yeah it looks interesting.

But it would have to be sustained for quite some time for to have the desired effect ( )

Reason I say that is, the temps over Europe at day time are only hovering around zero and not below.

During the many cold snaps of the 80's, the daytime temps in Europe were below minus ten and as low as minus 15 or 20 at night.
temps around freezing wouldnt be suffecient as that air when it gets to Ireland would be a few degrees warmer.

Best guess at least a week would be needed so the air is dragged from the far east of Europe and not near Europe.

Even at that warsaw in poland is zero at the moment-that air by the time it got here could be +4 or +5

What you want to be looking at aswell then weathercheck is the furthest source of the air(Is it Russia or siberia for instance which would be good) and for how long it would be sustained-as I say because most of the continent isnt cold enough yet, you would need at least a feed from the far east for a week to have a significant effect on Ireland.

ninebeanrows

Hi again all the 6z Ensenmbles again show that the GFS was
a mild outlier, 5/9 runs go for an Easterly..
And Earthman i really dont think we should worry
about the depth of cold, a pool of Sub -15c 850hpa
is forming over Eastern Europe as we speak, the Easterly
if it comes off would only give -10 850hpa temps to the
east unlike say -15- -20 we would have gotten in the 80's
but this is still well cold enough and if the synoptics
show an Easterly it will be cold enough believe me

Now are we on the brink of a "real" Easterly Blast to last
over a week?? Lets wait and see

Hmmmm...
You would want high minus figures on the near continent for an easterly to impact here properly.

Matty H an admin on TWO put it well here this morning as regards clinging to various models...

lol! at some of the posts in this thread! It's this sort of nonsense that gives this place a bad name in some peoples eyes.

Crap forecast because it didn't show what the charts aint showing etc. I mean really people! When are you going to wake up to the facts instead of believing the hype and gazing (no pun intended) at selective model runs that show what you want to see rather than looking at the overall picture, and then complaining when those outlier, extreme outputs don't happen!

For the record, I agree, the current scenario has the potential to develop into an interestingly long easterly-mother nature mightnt want that though...

They say a week is a long time in politics it's also a long time in Weather.

ninebeanrows

They say a week is a long time in politics it's also a long time in Weather.

No Earthman its even longer

The coming week has an equal chance of turning into a memorable
event or mild nothingness, i think that the amount of lying snow
on the coninent will be the crucual matter as to whether this
comes off, Andrew owner of Metcheck says that the 12z will
have loads of data and should straigten things out a bit..
But really we'll have to wait to see how much snow falls over
Europe in the next few days, what is encouraging is that western
Europe is going to really cool down with daytime maxima below
Freezing across much of France and Germany by Monday

Gonzo

theres meant to be snow for costa del sol, majorca, northern africa and southern italy... has this happened before?

yes it has, when I've time I'll dig up the history file

ninebeanrows

Stunning DWD again shows a Frigid Easterly Blast at T -144hrs or less

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501231200_120.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501231200_144.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501231200_168.gif

Scubadevils

Just read a post on net-weather talking about anticyclonic weather ahead with milder temps and fog, does this mean the end to a potential easterly in the coming week? (if there ever was a potential easterly )

ninebeanrows

No the Easterly is up in the air 50/50
Although there is 50% chance of the weather you posted above
Netweather changes like a yoyo

Danno

Those charts look very promising, esp with all the cloud cover!

ninebeanrows

Before i head of to the MET
You might be wondering why TWO has gone bust...
Here's why!! Were on the verge of a prolonged Easterly Blast

It sets in around this time
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

And is set to finish
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif

Other models hint at it too!

ECM drags in a nice Easterly Flow
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!latest!chart.gif

And DWD Sticks to its guns
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501230000_120.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501230000_140.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501230000_168.gif


So there you go, were on the verge of a specatcular weather
event, now lets hope it comes off!

jd

Weathercheck wrote:

So there you go, were on the verge of a specatcular weather
event, now lets hope it comes off!

evenwith the disruption and increase in mortality a prolonged spell of cold weather would bring ?
jd

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

It sets in around this time
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

And is set to finish
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif

6 days only? Thats hardly prolonged
Thats mightn't have a big impact here, if its day two of it in Ireland before it's cold enough to snow-depends on whats gonna happen in the Irish Sea for troughs etc and its too far away to know as yet-it could bring a lot of snow though and then again it might not but it's 50:50

For the record the 1982 Easterly lasted nearly a forthnight and I got ten days off school because around here all the roads were blocked and by blocked I mean they disappeared, the snow blew over the ditches and you could walk straight across the fields 12 feet and more above the road.
What happened was the cold air collided with an Atlantic system, it started snowing heavily with a gale on a wenesday night iirc and never stopped at all untill lunchtime saturday.
The snow here was 3 feet deep with 15 feet drifts...
Convert that to cm's

Latest models are pointing towards our high sitting on top of us for next weekend also and point to a northerly if anything.
That northerly isnt a real one either as the air its steering actually has originated in the mid atlantic and only travelled around the high so effectively its a slightly cooled down south westerly.

That doesnt rule out an eventual Easterly though, it depends on where that high migrates to.
If it moves south then it's curtains to the Easterly for now.
If it moves into Scandanavia, then it's Easterly heaven for snow lovers depending on how long it stays there.

Much of Eastern Europe has cooled down now and snow has gripped Europe as far west as Eastern France with temps down to -7c
I'd like to see them lower than that though for winds off the near continent to have a significant effect.
But its up in the air as to whether they will come here at this stage,I'd put the probability myself at 30% as theres no reason that I can see why low pressure systems won't continue to topple over the current high as they are doing now and that would have the effect of preventing this high from strenghtening further and migrating towards Scandanavia.
Mother Nature has the final say in that.

Gonzo

i doubt we'll get the easterlys either, we are so far west and get such mild winters compared to anywhere else in europe plus most of the charts are pointing at average temperatues for next week or so anyway, tho metcheck seem to have all this snow predictions for dublin.. i wont believe it till i see it. http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?locationID=297

Gonzo.
For to get Easterlies all that has to happen is the big High pressure we have now has to ridge or move into Scandanavia.
Weathercheck based on some but not all models was expecting that to happen from this Saturday.
All thats happened really is its decided to stay where it is for now but that doesnt stop it from doing so eventually.
The fact that low pressure systems/fronts (albeit weak ones though) are toppling over it and spreading down decreases the chances of that.

Mostly all the models are certain that the HP is staying where it is for now and thats why the "real" forecasters are confidently forecasting a mild week next week, ie they are certain that the northerlies(which are not real northerlies as they are air coming from the south west going clock wise over the top of the high and then south over the East of it) will stay with us.

They are not certain as to where the high will go the week after next though-ANYTHING could happen!
But my Gut feeling is that the Atlantic is mischievously going to push something too much over the top of this high and cause it to drift off southwards and then we are back to the usual regime.

In short enjoy the relatively sunny weather after this weatherfront passes through.

ninebeanrows

Summary of next 7 days..
Dull, cloudy, feeling cool with some drizzle and damn depressing

Lets give winter another few weeks, we deserve something..

At the moment were in a horrible rut, but models do change
and have done in the past

ninebeanrows

The Calm before the bite?
Well im about to pull one of my crazy predictions again, believe at
your peril Overall Consensus is for a settled dull and cloudy 7 days
but as we move towards February 5th (around then) i have a feeling
that our weather is going to turn alot more seasonal..A few organisations
are hinting at this and the latest Numerical models back this theory up..
Were talking about a very sketchy timescale where predictions are
not often the best but model agreement gives me more confidence.
We are now around T +180hrs away from the critical point..

O.K anyway my prediction is for a prolonged (5+ day) cold spell with winds
from the East or Northeast. High Pressure to the north and Low Pressure
to the south bringing the most snow to southern parts although all
areas are at risk.

I'll give you more on my "wacky prediction" later

Scubadevils

Interesting...

Just looking at accuweather website, they indicate colder weather starting around the 1st of Feb with snow forecast from the 3rd. Are they a reliable source and do they know something we don't!!!

http://ukie.accuweather.com/adcbin/ukie/ukie_forecast_6to10day.asp?postalcode=DUBLIN&ufdb=EIDW&metric=1&partner=&traveler=

How are you getting on in the Met office weathercheck, getting any inside info