Current Weather indications

Scubadevils

don't think i can take this anymore! missing too much work. I keep saying i will check whats going on only every 2 hours or so but just cant help logging on to all the various boards! TWO seems like its going to explode and even the pessimistic crew there seem to be getting excited! I will wait though till Thursday to announce it to family & friends, then its time for tinned food and a gas burner!

ninebeanrows

And the UKMO

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Need i say much more? :eek:

ninebeanrows

And ECM

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!120!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005021512!!chart.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!144!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005021512!!chart.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005021512!!chart.gif

:eek: Now now this is getting too good :eek:

Supercell

At this point it looks interesting, some sleet possible in Dublin from the looks of things..but lets wait until the models come into the higher res range before getting too excited.
The upper air temps are not really much lower in most of the ensembles then in the last few days here, which hasnt really been much to write home about.
Most likely outcome is a couple of days with some low level sleet and possibly snow, if any falls at night will probably be melted by 12pm if not before, max sea level depths in Dublin probably 1-2cm at best for a few hours(more likely 0) , the Wicklow mountains should do well.
However lots can and will change between now and then, but thats how i'm reading the current charts.

ninebeanrows

Hi Longfield im afraid the spell is in the highest resolution
the models come

A few things to note from your post the setup shown would
deliver snow if there was precipitation from Sunday in Dublin
and lots of it at that.

Lots of time to go but this is more than your average cold snap
with sleet, prospects for something to last for more than 5 days
with snow showers from Sunday in the east with a disturbance
beginning to be picked up on Monday which would lead to
widepsread snow. Im not saying that will happen but thats how its looking.

if the synoptics shown were to deliver sleet i'd seriously question
my ability to interperate models. The charts shown are sensational,
too good to be true infact and if you nit pick at charts like
them you'll never be pleased

Supercell

Weathercheck ...
1) The source of cold air isnt Siberian ..like a proper cold spell in fact its Svaalbad (sp)....now look @ http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.shade.jpg

2) Day time temps of 5c a blizzard does not make ..Sunday day time temps I would guesstimate to be in the 4-7 C range..that means sleet or possible wet snow and a very slim chance of settling snow unless you live high up or far inland where it may be slightly colder. (check out the temp maps on (tmax) on http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/tmax_frame.htm

Gonzo

ive checked all the charts i can and for the first time this winter I think Weathercheck could be right, many charts are pointing to a dry, sunny northerly at the weekend and an active easterly next week with temperatures close to freezing and plenty of sleet/snow showers. Metcheck UK have snow forcasts for dublin running from next saturday all the way into the beginning of march. Despite all this im still remaining reserved this will either go tits up like everything else this winter or it will be a glorified success. This will be our last chance of getting something that resembles winter weather this year so hopefully this will work out. So far RTE and BBC seem to be still reporting slightly cooler weather ahead with a few showers, nothing exciting from them yet.

ninebeanrows

And by the way just a question, whatever happened to this weeks mild weather?
It just never arrived did it!

As for next week Saturday and Sunday are the transitional days and i
would only expect wintry showers on Saturday before snow showers
begin to move into the north and east through Sunday
Monday onward are when the cold stream has settled and ready
to give us some proper winter weather. BTW eyes on late Sunday
for a possible snow event

Although detail is hard to pin down at the moment

Supercell

The easterly next week is NOT a proper "beast from the east" ..its a tepid home brew..it will be cold..but anyone dreaming of blizzards and several cms of powdery snow is deluded unless they live high in the Wicklow mountains...lets read the charts and interpret them with not what we want to see....but with the facts as presented.

Supercell

Gonzo wrote:

So far RTE and BBC seem to be still reporting slightly cooler weather ahead with a few showers, nothing exciting from them yet.

Well that is what the charts are showing, admittedly very far out for this kind of potential event, anyone forcasting blizzards and settling snow is thinking wishfully not factually.

ninebeanrows

Thats what you think and your more than valid an opinion,
but i disagree.

I honestly dont think the current charts could be much better
and if you dont think their good you wont think many charts
are good for the next few years.

You know how feel so i'll leave the rest of my chit chat for
tomorrow and on

With the current charts snow would settle at sea level with
dam readings of around 520 in the south for around
5 or more days with 850hpa temps below -5c
this would 98% of the time mean that any precipitation
would fall as snow

ninebeanrows

This is it folks

Were on the verge of the coldest spell of weather in a very long
time( possibly a decade..no joke) from Saturday cold air will start sliding south across the country and wont leave for more than week. Current indications suggest that the cold spell could last for over 10 days :eek:

This will bring the country into madness at times because so far
this year we've hardly seen a 2 day cold spell

The cold spell coming up is a true cold spell out of the 80's textbook.
Northerly winds will bring down biting winds on Saturday before they
gradually turn northeasterly and then easterly as move from Sunday
into Monday.

Daytime maxima will range from 2-5c for over a week with
nightime temperatures dipping to around -5 or -6c on
snow fields.

Most snowfall will occur on eastern coasts as the winds turn
northeasterly from Sunday into Monday. Light to moderate
snow showers will move onto the east coast bringing steady
accumalations through the day. Periods of snow are possible
at times and one that may bring widespread snow is a feature
on Sunday night.

There is excellant agreement almost total agreement of the above
coming off and a cold spell longer than 7 days is the likely
outcome.

This will be the winter's hardest hit this winter and with Eastern
areas at the grip of its worst at times it will be hard. By
Thursday no doubt the first Headlines will reach the papers
but i've given you plenty of warning. Icy roads with snow and
frost will come a day to day problem from the weekend as
Ireland dives into the grip of a bitter freeze

new thread coming up when i have the nod

ninebeanrows

Charts coming off the press this morning havent been
seen for such a long time. the below is just one example
of what is almost total agreement this morning

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

:eek:

Eeerily similar to the great charts i dream about from the 80's
and before :eek:

LFCFan

I'm not letting my gaurd down again like last time. If this comes off I'll forgive you for the last let down, if it fails to deliver at least some snow............well, get ready for a verbal beating

Mothman

With my proximity to east coast, I usually don't get my coldest temps in this scenario. There is just too much wind coming in off the sea. Irish sea temp at moment is 7C, Granted I'm likely to get any precipitation going, but whether this is snow is not a given IMO, never mind if it settles.
I often get one or two really cold nights at the end of the cold spell when the wind shifts away from the east.

billy the squid

Weathercheck wrote:

Charts coming off the press this morning havent been
seen for such a long time. the below is just one example
of what is almost total agreement this morning

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

:eek:

Eeerily similar to the great charts i dream about from the 80's
and before :eek:

its a little far away to be quite honest. I would gues that iif such a chart were to happen it would be more of a really hard frost or even Icy rather than a blizard. but that is my opinion.

I must point out that all the charts that I know are predicting some sort of fan out cold spell, whether it brings snow or not remains to be seen.

an example of some of the crazy charts these models churn out from time to time is this one now that would be nice, but it aint going to happen i

now back from cloud nine for a second. Heres one for ssunday night/monday morning but cold air is no good without precipitation.

billy the squid

billy the squid wrote:

its a little far away to be quite honest. I would gues that iif such a chart were to happen it would be more of a really hard frost or even Icy rather than a blizard. but that is my opinion.

I must point out that all the charts that I know are predicting some sort of fan out cold spell, whether it brings snow or not remains to be seen.

Well theres a couple of things to consider here and I'll deal with them individually.
1.Source of the air:Northerly at first=showers possibly on the west coast, though that would be tempered by barometric pressure being higher there but definitely showers in the North.

East wind: showers in the East, heaviest there and if heavy enough they penetrate into the midlands and some get through to the west.

Now cold air over the warm sea does usually cause showers to develop but the air must be cold enough.
Temps of 2 3 or 4 c at ground would tend snow to sleet regardless of 850hpa temps.
We've seen enough examples of that already.

There is plenty of potential for snow cover in the East if the temp is low enough,I'm not convinced yet that the source of any easterly if it develops as per these models( and thats not yet a given) will be cold enough to produce more than hill snow here.

It's all up in the air literally at the moment

2. Cold versus mild battle-althought theres no guarantee or definitive signs of that either, if you get an atlantic system caught up in a cold easterly you have the potential for gigantic amounts of snow.
Eastern and northern areas would fare best in that scenario.
I've seen it happen maybe four or five times though only in my life time and it is amazing when it does-depending on the strength of the system it can be a total white out.
1982 being the obvious best example of that.

But all this is just speculation, I wont be confident of what I think may happen untill friday but then thats me, I have seen enough of this to know at this stage that Nature doesnt always follow models in the way we like to think it does.

billy the squid

I see what you mean.

the crazy image i linked to showed a storm over ireland with tight isobars and a tempriture of -5 now it has changed

ninebeanrows

Welll Jasus i cant take this i need music to calm myself down or
hype myself up :eek:

6z is truely sensational and from Sunday Ireland and the Uk could
be facing one of those very very rare events. Dont worry
about it being to warm for snow, honestly if the synoptics come
off which there is 90% agreement of more we will see snow.
it will be one of those events you dream about as a child or
perhaps even worse, charts trickling out over the last few days
have just been absolutely corking

brief rundown on the sceal..

Early Saturday Slack but cool northerly flow develops
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.gif

Early Sunday very cold air starts to filter south
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif

Early Monday the true effects of the cold begin a bitter
easterly flow develops throwing snow showers and more
onto eastern coasts
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

Tuesday the flow is now truely established and our
weather pattern flips into crazy mode.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

Wednesday continues with a bitter easterly flow
with the cold really settling and weird happenings
bringing low pressures travelling the wrong way and
possible major snowfalls not on this chart tho.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif

After this the severe cold blast continues for loads
longer but why look into FI when you have the charts
above getting into reliable timeframe.

My Favorite chart showing true Siberian cold ready
to arrive http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.gif

Daytime maxima struggling to 3 or 4 by day and
down to -4c or so by night...

bring on WInter :eek:
And possibly our worst cold spell in a decade :eek:

ninebeanrows

OK a FI chart showing the cold weather lasting for
weeks :eek:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn3721.gif

Earthman im calling this one today

Agreement is really astonishing at the moment so
all i really think this one is the ONE

Danno

One thing that strikes me in the closer charts is this.

Higher pressure over Ireland. Hpa of over 1014 is not good for precip. While we may have a cold air mass moving in from the east, if the pressure is too high, then any showers will be light flurries delivering nothing past the westlink on the M50, never mind getting into the heartlands of Laois!

Danno

MET IE have issued this 3-day:

3 Day Outlook:
Friday will be a mostly cloudy, breezy day with a fresh to strong westerly wind later veering west to northwest. There will be some rain at times, but it clear from the north during the evening. Frost likely Friday night. Saturday and Sunday will be brighter, but much colder days with sunny periods and a few scattered showers, some wintry in places.

ninebeanrows

1014mb is well unstable enough to produce hefty showers
although i do agree that precipitation could be a
problem away from eastern counties. Of course
you have to throw in the fact that there is likely
to be a few disturbances that will bring widespread snow.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

1014mb is well unstable enough to produce hefty showers

for a change I'd tend towards weathercheck on that definition.

1014 is just on the upper ranges of what is acceptable for a shallow area of low pressure often associated with a trough of convection Irish sea showers.

They were quite common in the Easterlies of the 80's and often delivered 6 or 8 inches of snow at sea level in louth meath Dublin Wicklow and wexford.


They dont tend to travel very far inland though iirc

I seen it for instance to be very snowy here and ten miles inland the sun would be out and there wouldnt be a flake.
One example when I was in school in Arklow it snowed heavily all day dumping a couple of inches.Some of the lads that lived on the higher ground ten miles inland were wondering if they were able to get home.It turned out that the sun had been shining there all day and there was no snow.
The wonders of nature as recently, for any significant snow the higher ground is the only certain place to have it-back then for whatever reason it was often different.

I'm still not calling this by the way untill the fat lady has her tonsils out...

Danno

I dunno, Christmas 1995 and the first week or so of 1996 was the last time a eaterly delivered good widespread snow, enough ice days to count on both your hands and feet.

Danno

Danno wrote:

I dunno, Christmas 1995 and the first week or so of 1996 was the last time a eaterly delivered good widespread snow, enough ice days to count on both your hands and feet.

Yes thats correct but iirc that was more of a northerly than an Easterly.
I know Scotland had record low temps and the heavy snow came out of an atlantic weather system that moved in.
That system turned to Rain though before it ended and temps got up into the low teens that night.

Danno

Earthman wrote:

Yes thats correct but iirc that was more of a northerly than an Easterly.
I know Scotland had record low temps and the heavy snow came out of an atlantic weather system that moved in.
That system turned to Rain though before it ended and temps got up into the low teens that night.

It started around the 20th or 21st and went on for ages!

I think it was a NE'ly.

Was the best cold spell I can recall, excl 1987.

And followed a great summer 1995. What a year 1995 was for weather!

Danno

Danno wrote:

It started around the 20th or 21st and went on for ages!

I think it was a NE'ly.

Was the best cold spell I can recall, excl 1987.

And followed a great summer 1995. What a year 1995 was for weather!

It was a northerly and a mainly dry one for down here with us anyway untill the Atlantic system came.
It was the last time I recall ice hard enough to walk on.
Norhterlys arent good for the southeast for obvious reasons.
The snow which turned to rain during New Years day came on new years eve, but the cold northerly lasted from a day or two before Xmas ie more than a week.
Wales as usual and especially that time stole most of the Irish sea snow showers.

Danno

It was an amazing cold spell!

I don't think temps got above 0c or 2c for the whole period. New Years Eve was snowy.

ninebeanrows

I dont think i have seen ensembles like this since i became
a weather buff, simply stunning

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

Infact the mean stays at around -7c for around 12 days :eek:

Bar 1 or 2 runs which still give us a 3 and 5 day cold spell respectively
were away :eek:

8/10 go for a bitter 10day + cold spell