Current Weather indications

ninebeanrows

Just To tell you all interesting signs towards cold
weather next week will post more on my site tomorrow.

Currently it looks like a Cool Spell at the weekend
with HeavyRain Hail and Sleet showers driven in
on a Fresh Northwest Wind after that Look
East

Nothing is at all certain.. I'll Know more tomorrow

Ok
I've split this post as a new thread off the rain or shine thread.
The latter is for posts on current weather conditions and is used as a log.


Ye can even talk of snow in june here

ninebeanrows

Thanks Earthman But I aint predicting
snow this weekend just to let you all know

I am though predicting a cool fresh weekend
with some wintry showers countrywide
on Sunday and Monday. A Very Active
Cold Front will push south on Saturday with
a steep temperature gradient and heavy rain
introducing much cooler conditions.

Then Things are expected to stay on the cool
side until about December 4th and then
Its upto the Gods

ninebeanrows

Cool...
Over the coming Days the weather Across the Country Look like turning very cool with Wintry Showers for many areas in Ireland and the UK. Things will start to turn during Saturday as a Cold Front moves south across the Country Bringing Heavy Rain and a sharp drop in Temperatures. Sunday Indeed looks like being very cool with maximum temperatures in Dublin of around 6c. The Cool Theme stays with us through the rest of next week with temperatures between Sunday and Thursday not expected to exceed 7c in Dublin and very similar elsewhere. Rain will move in from the west late Monday Heralding More unsettled and cool weather with Heavy wintry showers associated with a slack depression over Ulster. This Depression will stay with use through the rest of the week and leave things remaining cool. Any wintry showers will likely fall as Rain, Hail or sleet but Ground above 500m Could see falls of snow. Looking even further ahead things remain uncertain with two scenarios in question 1) Things will turn unsettled from the west 2) A Scandanavian High will dominate and Easterly winds will take hold. It Looks at the moment that Scenario 1 WIll come off but with A number of models backing the development of a Easterly Dominated Regime.

Interesting Times Ahead...


Taken From My Site

magpie

Paddy Power are offering 6-1 against snow on Christmas Day (registered at Dublin Airport).

Worth a flutter?

Danno

Baah,

Birr, Clones or Knock should be used, we all know that Dublin does not get snow!

ninebeanrows

Hi All My Winter Forecast is now available:
Please Comment on it in the Thread

Available here also Winter Forecast 2004-2005


Official Weathercheck Winter Forecast 2005

Overall the period of December through February looks like being about 2c above average. The Bartlett High will be overly persistent and will result in a very disappointing winter period with few cold wintry periods. It will be a non-descript winter with very mild conditions and also various stormy periods. Cold Spells will be very limited infact they will be limited to 3 or 4 short periods. Very settled interludes will also be prevalent with the ever near European High Pressure.

Notable Periods:

* 25th - 02nd January - Possibly the only wintry period of the winter with widespread snow for a number of areas and hard frosts. The cold spell which will be brought on by Northerly Winds and will last no more than 5 days.

* Mid January - Storm Possibilities as a strong jet introduces very unstable westerly winds, Expect Stormy weather around this period.

* January 17th -23rd - This could well be the last cold spell of the winter, Northerly winds will affect all areas for 3-4 Days with widespread snow possible but certainly not assured.

* February - The dreaded Bartlett High Returns late January to ensure a mild but settled February period.

How are our Forecasts Made?
Weathercheck use various sources when providing their winter forecast. Firstly for the short term we use GFS Ensembles, this gives a rough idea what is likely to happen over the first 20 days of the forecast. In the Medium term we peak at Meto and NCEP outputs to see what the consensus is, we also take into account the NAO which we expect to be neutral this year. But Weathercheck mainly use one specific source and that is the GSM or ECPC Experimental Forecast Model. Weathercheck feel satisfied that this model scores a 60% success rate in Forecasting out to 8 Weeks and a 50% Success rate in Forecasting out to 16 Weeks. This gives us a virtual chance to look into the future and over the coming years the accuracy of this model is expected to grow.


Monthly Rundown:

December: CET near Average (+0.5c)
A Month of various divisions. Cold Settled weather to begin the month will be displaced by rather unsettled weather by around December 5th. Mild, Wet and Windy weather will be dominate with stormy weather for the north possible around December 8th -10th. A cooler unsettled period around December 13th will result in possible wintry showers over Scotland. More Unsettled and mild conditions will move in soon after bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Cooler weather will return for a time with possible wintry showers for the north before more mild and wet weather arrives around December 18th. Much more settled weather will arrive around the Christmas Period (21st December) and will bring with it frosty and cold weather until around Christmas Day when Much Colder weather conditions will move down from the north bringing the highest possibility of widespread snow this winter. Things will be at there height around December 27th with widespread snow is more than possible. Blizzards will be possible as a deep artic plunge sweeps the country for a few days. Things will settle down towards and into the New Year Bringing much more Settled but Frosty Weather.

January: CET Well above average (+1.5c)
Extremely Cold weather will notably push through central Europe as Britain turns more settled and much less cold as the Atlantic Jet stream steams into action. Mild and much more unsettled weather will push in by January 3rd or 4th bringing windy and very wet conditions to all. The mild weather will not end there and around January 10th Weathercheck are watching the possibility of a very stormy period with possible structural damage due to a very wild Atlantic. Not to mention the ever growing Bartlett High which is expected to be manifesting over Europe. But this will soon be displaced a Strong Northerly Block forms allowing colder weather to move south around January 15th. Snow showers will affect Northern and Western areas as a short northerly blast sets into Britain. By January 18th Unsettled and wet weather will again rage in from the Atlantic bringing strong gales and heavy rain. A short settled spell around the 22nd will be again replaced by much milder, wet and windy weather late in the month. Meanwhile the Bartlett High will raging calm over Europe as Central Europe basks in Glorious winter weather but as Eastern Europe freezes.

February: CET (+2.5c)
The Month of the Bartlett High! A predominately settled and mild month with few if any cold spells. A strong European High to begin the month will drag up very mild and wet weather from the South-West
Bringing heavy bands of rain and unseasonal temperatures possibly in their mid teens! Some cooler weather will move in for a time before more settled weather pushes in around February 10th bringing more settled and possibly frosty weather. Around February 12th there is the possibility of some colder weather making an appearance for a time, with the possibility of snow showers for a few places. The High Pressure will retrogress back into Europe by Mid February pumping up more mild, moist and windy weather. Rainfall totals are expected to be very high across the North and West but below average in the Southeast. Cooler weather will push in for a time with squally wintry showers and strong west-northwest winds likely around February 24th. A Milder and much more unsettled westerly regime will return again by late month with more rain and winds. By the very end of the month colder weather may push down from the north bringing some more wintry weather.

Conclusion
An above average winter season with the Atlantic Jet remaining strong for prolonged periods. The dominance of a European High Pressure and strong Jet will prevent any particularly cold weather from affecting the UK and Ireland for any prolonged periods. Any cold weather will be limited to short spells of no more than 5 days. Eastern and South-eastern Europe can expect a very cold winter with prolonged freezing conditions. Greece again will suffer freakish weather conditions. Although the winter will be very mild overall, short spells of severe cold weather will of course affect Ireland at times, possibly bringing widespread snow. Nonetheless Weathercheck do not expect any prolonged spells of cold to affect the UK at any time. December will be the coldest month with severe cold likely to last for 5 days at the end of the month which will ensure that December will turn out average or just above (temperature wise). January will be a mixed month with short cold spells likely, Settled spells and also prolonged mild and unsettled weather. February is expected to be exceptionally mild with the dominance of a large area of High Pressure over Mainland Europe ensuring mild and moist weather for the UK and Ireland.

Note:
The Forecast is Likely to be incorrect at intervals but we expect the outline forecast to be pretty accurate. Remember things may well change and so we promise that we will tell you of any possible changes to the Forecast.


Winter Forecast 2004-2005

ninebeanrows

Magpie its worth a fiver but dont bank on it

Cold weather is likely to push in around that period
but may arrive to late to get you any winnings

If Christmas was on December 28th I'd
be putting 50Euro on it now

ninebeanrows

Feel Free to Discuss the Forecast Below

Danno

DECEMBER
WEEK 1 - This will be a mixed month in terms of weather. Some settled weather at the end of November may start off the month, but not before long the Atlantic will kick in with wet, mild and windy weather.
WEEK 2 - Low pressure to the SE of Iceland will feed in showers, maybe cold enough for hail and sleet in the NW. High pressure building from the SW.
WEEK 3 - Fine and settled, mild enough with temps perhaps into the low teens. Later in the week, pressure will slip to the NE and build.
WEEK 4 - East to NE winds will bring in cloudy cold weather, perhaps some sleet showers along the E coast. Low pressure will start to push in from the W by the end of the week.

JANUARY
WEEK 1 - Perhaps a white new years in a few spots as cold weather in the E meets milder weather pushing in from the W. However, the mild weather wins out and deep low pressure sweeps in from the W or SW. This could be a potential storm.
WEEK 2 - At the start, very mild for a time with 17-20c recorded somewhere and mild S winds dominate for a day or two. High pressure builds later in the peroid from the east. This will eventually bring very cold air to Ireland from Russia.
WEEK 3 - Cloud abound at the start, very cold with 0c daily max. Snow flurries will spread in from the Irish sea. Later in the week a low pressure forms in Biscay and delivers substantial snow to the south and southeast. SW England and Wales are affected too as the low tracks up the Irish sea.
WEEK 4 - Still cold as low pressure feeds in NW. High pressure builds in mid atlantic. Lots of wintry showers, Time for the NW and W to share in the snow!

FEBRUARY
WEEK 1 - Still cold, though more settled. Snow will have laid on hills for over 2 weeks at this stage.
WEEK 2 - High pressure firmly over Ireland, probably the coldest period of the winter with SEVERE frosts overnight.
WEEK 3 - High pressure to the NW will allow a NE to develop bringing snow showers to all but the SW and far W. Very cold.
WEEK 4 - High pressure will drift to the S allowing mild weather to usher in thawing any snow, and bringing us into spring.

So there is my forecast. ENJOY!

ninebeanrows

Its been quite accurate so far Danno
hopefully it will stay that way

Oh ye did ye post mine on TWO???

ninebeanrows

Early Signs are indicating at a cold Christmas Period

Signs are appearing that a strong atlantic Block
will feed down very cold air around Christmas

Very early as of yet but the chances of a white
Christmas are growing by the day

I told you first

ninebeanrows

People i think you should start getting interested in this

Ever dreamt of a white Christmas??

Well really things are shaping up excellantly
for the Christmas period with at least 1 or 2
cold spells with snow possibilities to come in
and around the fesitivities

I'll update you later with some charts from
whats set to be a spectacular 12z run

Watch out around the 20-25th of December things
are set to be very interesting indeed

The average line of all runs is marked in black and
the ed line is the run available to the public

And also even before that around December 17th
a sharp cold spell is possible!

Heres a chart showing upper air temperatures
Notice the averagesn tumble. Values of around
-5c in this data gives the possiblity of snow
to low level, This chart shows the 12 GFS model
runs at 6z or 1300pm Today

All snow and winter weather talk merged and the tread has been stickified.
Please post any views on other posts in this thread here.
New threads on this subject may only be created for specefic Winter weather events when they have happened and not ahead of when anyone thinks they are going to happen.

I will update the charter to reflect this new law.

ninebeanrows

Dont have much time but
a cold shot is going to push in on the run up
to Christmas with very cold weather likely from
Saturday and really digging around the middle
of next week and towards Christmas, i expect
snow on the ground in a number of areeas come
Christmas week and possibly yes possibly on Christmas
Day. All areas should brace for a very cold run upto
Christmas with passing snow showers likely to all
levels.

Loads of details Tomorrow!

ninebeanrows

Massive Cold Shot set to dig south in time for the Festivities..

As we approach Christmas Week and the Weekend a drastic drop
in temperature will take place. Already we are seeing 850hpa Slowly
dropping away at the moment they are at +5c but by the Weekend
they will have nose dived to -5c!

The First Cold shot will arrive this Saturday bringing a drastic drop
in temperature than we have seen of late. At the moment eyes are
firmly fixed on Saturday when a secondary low pressure spins of an
unstable and cold northwesterly airflow as this interacts with
the cold air, wintry precipiatation is possible north of the Midlands
and Snowfall above 500m looks likely!

The unstable air will move away by Sunday to leave a cold frosty
and Bright day, Monday is set to continue that trend.

A short milder section is likely through Tuesday before
another cold shot is likely by Wednesday and into Thursday.
By this stage it should be cold enough for wintry showers
nationwide.

Another milder shot will push in on Thursday to bring wet and mild
conditions.

By Midday Friday much colder weather will build to the north and
through Saturday, yes Christmas Day!! This will swing south and a strong
and gale force North, Nortwesterly wind will develop with blustery and
possibly prolonges sleet and snow showers for many parts by
Stephens Day this theme is set to continue but by the 27th things
look like settling down but staying cold and frosty!!

Overall the liklihood of a White Christmas is amazingly high!!
I as an amateur meteorologist would put the risk for the
following locations at:

Belfast: 70%
Derry: 70%
Knock: 70%
Kerry: 40%
Cork: 30%
Athlone: 60%
Rosslare: 40%
Dublin: 50 - 55%

Overall an amazingly high likelihood of a white Christmas.

Im putting my bet on a white Christmas tonight at 6-1 as
its a fantastic price. Remember a white Christmas is deemed
as a flake of snow being recorded at a particular official
weather station that you have predicted it to fall in

ninebeanrows

White Christmas still firmly ON!!

I've put my 10 Euro on with 3 on Dublin
3 on 1 inch at Dublin at 12-1!! a steal!!!

Looking at the latest Model runs Blizzards
could be widspread this Christmas and visiting
those relatives may not be possible!!

Stay upto date you might just wake up on the 25th
with a your childhood dream outside!!

Imagine big 4 feet drifts of snow with a blizzards,
thats what would happen if a chart like this occured!!



Also Great Patterns are now emerging that an Easterly Blast
like the one from the 80's might be possible early in the new-year,
notice the mass of High to the top right of that chart. That is called
a Siberian High and it was the cause of many major Cold Winters!!

I really am just reading the Models and yes they are
totally unbelievable!!!

ninebeanrows

Think this one needs a thread of its own!!
Things are now looking very likely that Ireland will
under a very strong and bitter northerly plunge come
Christmas Day as a deep area of Low Pressure plants itself
east of Scotland feeing down fronts of heavy snow across
the country..!!!

The Cold Spell looks set to only last for a short enough period.
Things will be at a Height between 24-27th December.

Overall risk of snow is very high

As much as 75% in Donegal and 55% in Dublin

http://weathercheck.net/whitechristmas1.mht

To tell you the truth thiese odds are steadily growing!!

DapperGent

Steady on.

1.The picture for the 24th is completely uncertain, putting percentages on risk of snowfall is nothing more than idle speculation.

2. There is already a thread for speculation.

3. Your contribution is interesting and valid but please don't cross the line between contributing and using this board to promote your own site. That's not what it's for.

Threads merged.

ninebeanrows

Hi Dapper, i just had to post that link becuase i cant
post that image I actually am not intending to
promote my site just like telling all the Boards viewers
what the story is

And yes this Christmas is looking very interesting
and those percentages are very true!!

I'll try not to go out on a limb as much
and thanks Dapper

Gonzo

It certainly feels cold enough for snow outside atm.. i couldnt believe how cold its gotten over past few hours, hasnt felt this cold in a long time

ninebeanrows

Hi Gonzo yes its quite cold outside now with 850hpa Temps reaching
-5c across the north, there is a small possibilty (30%) that a front
tomorrow as it hits cold air may turn to snow across the midlands.
Ground above 500m have a much better probability probably near
50%.

As for Christmas, things are still going to plan with a sharp northerly
plunge expected to arrive on Christmas eve and if things stay
the same it will deliver blizzards in many locations come the big
day...talk about timing!!!

Talk about the chart of childrens dreams!!

ninebeanrows

Tomorrows risk now looks higher as the MET have issued this forecast,
Hey i aint mad after all!!!!

Mostly dry and cold tonight, but rain in the West and South later. Mostly wet tomorrow with heavy falls of rain. and some falls of sleet or wet snow in some central and north midland areas. cold in many places but mild in the south.

HeHe It's been snowing here in vienna this evening , tiz nice and christmassy but Brrrrrr baby it's cold outside-they're expecting lots of it tomorrow they tell me which is going to make my drive down to Budapest interesting

ninebeanrows

What you doing down that way!!

I used to live around there when i was young
in Slovakia, Bratislavia we made trips to Budapest
and Vienna regularly that was in 94 though when
things were soo cheap it was amazing.

To buy an icecream in the park 2p, when
buying chewing gum the poor souls sold them
singly!!! When we lived there we were viewed
as millionaires!!!..im afraid were not though!...

ninebeanrows

I thought a few charts might quench the doubters!!!

Christmas Morning


Afternoon


Oh ye also forgot to mention the snow arrives on Christmas eve Morning!!!


And if you think that run is out on its own!!
Amazingly at such range the runs are merged


Although the 850hpa temps are not excpetionally Low the
The 500/1000 gpdam is easily low enough for snow usually
snow can fall at 528dam and with values of around
520dam predicted in Dublin this situation really
is looking extrodinarly sweet!!!

Lafortezza

If you really want snow on Christmas day it can technically be arranged...

is_that_so

Weathercheck wrote:

Although the 850hpa temps are not excpetionally Low the 500/1000 gpdam is easily low enough for snow usually
snow can fall at 528dam and with values of around
520dam predicted in Dublin this situation really
is looking extrodinarly sweet!!!

That's only because you have money on it. but would be nice all the same

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

What you doing down that way!!

Ah...just wandering around.
The predicted snow didnt materialise here today with temps up around 6c(so last nights disappeared quickly today) but there was some down near the hungarian border and enough for me to be pelted with snowballs last night

ninebeanrows

Christmas Week Forecast..........Cold!!

O.K I thought for the good of boards i'd give a pretty detailed
rundown on the weeks weather Before i begin. The weather this week
is set to be very mixed milder and very windy weather will arrive midweek
before much colder and possibly snowy weather around Christmas eve
and Christmas day. All I'll say is that your childhood dreams have a very
high possibility of coming off!

The Week Ahead

Monday:
Rain will arrive in the west by 6am and quickly sweep east introducing
slightly milder weather. The rain may turn to sleet or wet snow in places
across the north and east for a time especially in mountanous areas.
Showery and cool weather will arrive in the west in the wake of the
rainband. Temperatures will begin below freezing in the north and east
but will rise as the rainband moves through. Temperatures will range
between 6-9c by late afternoon.

Tuesday:
Any showers will dy out by Tuesday morning and it will feel quite cold
with perhaps a slight frost in the midlands to begin. It will be a bright, cool day in most areas with the odd shower in the far northeast. Temepratures will remain on the cold side with maxima between 5c in the midlands to 8c in the
far southwest. Heavy rain will arrive in the northwest by evening and move
across the country during the night. The rain will be very heavy in places
with perhaps some localised flooding and waterlogging.

Wednesday:
Heavy rain will slip east and turn persistant and heavy. It will feel noticeably
milder with temperatures widely reaching double figures. It will be very
breezy in the west with perhaps localised gales. By late afternoon the rain
will slowly move away from the east and it will turn dryer for a time. But
drizzle and fog will set in towards dusk.

Thursday:
Very wet and very windy weather will push into the northwest and
move southeast. Severe gales are likely in places with gusts in excess
of 70mph likely in exposed areas. The glaes and heavy rain will
make it feel very cold but temperatures are likely to reach double figures
at times. The far north of Ulster can expect some severe weather as very
heavy rain and extremely high winds affect the area. The rain will rapidly
move east during the early afternoon and clear the east coast by mid afternoon. It will turn cooler from the west towards dark.

Friday:
Christmas Eve will be a day where almost every weather type will
affect Ireland! To begin a rainband will move south through early
morning introducing much cooler weather. The rain will very heavy
in many areas. By mid afternoon a small low pressure will form
on the strong northwesterly airstream and wrap very cold air
around it. The rainbands associated with the low will push
south through the afternoon and will turn to snow by evening
several cm's of snow will accumalate in higher areas although
lower level of the midlands, north and east can expect a
few centimetres by evening. Later in the evening a bitter
northwesterly airflow will develop bringing heavy snow showers
to many areas with local blizzard conditions especially across
the north and west where accumalations of more that 10cm's
are more than likely.

Christmas Day:
A very cold and unsettled day with temperatures peaking
in the southeast early in the day at around 3c. Bands
of heavy snow showers will transfer from north to south
delivering a White Christmas to the majority of Ireland.
Strong northwesterly winds will mean that blizzard
conditions are likely especially across High Ground. More than 10cm
of snow will ly in many areas with road conditions expected to
be extremely hazardous after the rain and snow from the previous
day will freeze over. Christmas night will be very cold with
temperatures down to -5c locally and with snow showers
still affecting the nrth and east.

After that:
Milder weather is likely to arrive by midday on Stephen's day and
a steady thaw will set in. Looking after that more
unsettled weather is likely with milder and colder periods
likely with strong atlantic blocking expected at times.

Hope you like that anyway !!! I know its sort of unbelievable
but the fact is that is what can be expected during the run up
to christmas and on Christmas day

I'd say Paddy Power will slash their odds on Monday

I'll give you more updates through the week on the
situation. The overally liklihood of a white Christmas
is around 60%

New thread merged into the existing one as I get the impression it's purpose is mainly to speculate on a white christmas and it's best to keep all these things together.