Current Weather indications

ninebeanrows

I was just giving the weeks forecast
The fact that its going to be white really has
no bearing

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

I was just giving the weeks forecast
The fact that its going to be white really has
no bearing

Theres a sticky for links to weather forecasts, you can put your website link there but please don't be posting weekly or daily forcasts here, thats not what we are about.We talk about weather here not forcast it or present others forecasts unless we are talking about specefic weather events that are actually happening and why they are happening or in the case of predicted seasonal events where a forcast is being discussed thats to be done in the thread provided for it.

The purpose of this is to prevent clutter.

ninebeanrows

Afternoon all some more stonking runs!!!!

A white xmas is nearly certain for some part
of Ireland!!!

Were talking widspread bands of snow and possible blizzard
conditions into Christmas day!!!!

The timing is almost made for a fairytale!!
Cold air will dig south through Christmas eve
and get more intense. Bands of rain will move
south throughout the day steadily turning to
sleet and snow as we move into evening. By
Nightime a band of snow is expected to move south
delivering blizzard condtions to many!!

I expect in excess of 20cm to be on the ground in
the Northwest by Christmas morning and accumalations
in many other areas. Areas most unlikely to see
snow are the far south but even here it should be cold
enough for snow!!!

If you've ever seen a chart for Christmas day i bet you
cant remember seeing one like this!! It is almost
like a fairytale, someone wake me up im dreaming!!

I heard the radio yesterday and some guy saying there was
little chance of a white Christmas with the usual global warming
tripe oh how wrong he is probably going to be.

Ok open your eyes heres to the chart of dreams
and to a white Christmas

ninebeanrows

And just coming through a reasonably accurate chart for Christmas
day but if your living on the tip of Kerry dont get disheartend
the resolution is quite poor!! lol

Midday Christmas

Areas most unlikely to see
snow are the far south but even here it should be cold
enough for snow!!!

Ah I dunno about that weathercheck...
Quite often with a feed of polar air from the north and northwest areas of the south and southwest see normal atlantic heavy shower activity which when cold enough falls as snow.This is what happened around Xmas 2000 when 5 or six inches fell in much of cork and kerry.
That sort of activity is usually at its weakest on the East coast with the wind in the Northwest.
I'd expect those places on the East coast by the seaside to be least at risk of much activity eg portmarnock

ninebeanrows

Ye know thats probably right :eek: !!

Usually Norht Dublin does alright with a Northwesterly
though due to the vast open lowlying North Midlands

Usually in this neck of the woods a north westerly is better
than a Norhtherly because showers have less chance of
dying out!!

Really though mate this setup is just amazing with some
complications like troughs and or polar lows likely

Looking at gpdam readings from the UKMO things are
set to be very interesting

Using the calculation here you can roughly work out the gpdam level

((1000mB - pressure mB)* 0.87) + (500mb Chart Dam reading) = GPDAM

In Dublin for example levels on Christmas eve
are 522 on Christmas day 517 and on Stephens day 522


There just outstanding with any precipitation surely of snow
and with the 500hpa pressure so dang low polar lows
are a real threat Remember the lucky -40c barrier
looks like being broken

Overall one word sums it up amazing!!

At 15 years old the only good snow i can remember was
Late FEB 01' with around 15cm of lying snow and chaos
in the city, this looks like it could be very similar or worse

And lets not forget this is all set to occur on CHRISTMAS DAY!!!!! :eek:

Oh god look at these will it snow predictions from Metcheck!!!
Dublin - http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?lat=53&lon=-6&locationID=297
Donegal -
http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?lat=55&lon=-8&locationID=296

Paddy get the shovel and stock up on the coal, its going to be a harsh
Christmas!!!!!

Gonzo

what ive heard so far isnt too promising, we are indeed heading into some really cold weather over 2 days or so, but ive heard its gonna be the usually boring situation of the uk plastered with snow mainly the eastern half of england/scotland with the majority of ireland seeing cold conditons but wall to wall sunshine and a hard frost with the west coast of ireland seeing isolated light wintry showers...we'll see what happens im hoping weathercheck is right coz i havent seen proper snow in south meath in nearly 14 years... about 2 months ago i kept hearing reports of us being blizzard stuck for 2 months this winter...

ninebeanrows

Its quite the opposite infact Gonzo unlike last year
when low Pressures were fixed to the east of Britain
in this upcoming cold spell the LP is fixed just to our north
and will bring in plenty of precitation for all parts. Infact
Eastern Britain will likely fair worst for snowfall on Christmas
day. We are talking on another board about it being the
West's turn to at last see some decent snowfall.

Im expecting copious amount of snow for Western areas
at least 20cm's for the 3 day period. Here in Dublin and Meath
we can expect quite a decent fall on Christmas day itself
with a band of snow expected to cross the country
Unlike last year the source of air is very moist indeed
for a cold airmass and will ensure plenty of snow showers
and lets not forget the possibility of something else forming
like a polar low!!

Just heard the forecast on the radio and the Met are
going for a White Christmas aswell as nearly all other
weather industries you just cant say it wont be when
you look at the charts!!

highdef

Well - Looking at the current synoptics, do you reckon there is a good chance of a polar low crossing down over Ireland at Christmas? With a NW wind, a polar low really is important for any real amount of precipataion (SNOW!!!) in the sheltered east.

Well with four days to go... the likes of the Beeb are being cagey.
I'm expecting a few flurries down here where I am but nothing sticking,it would have to be a serious system in a north west wind to do anything much to the southeast of the wicklow mountains,nobody is being certain enough on something like that happening at the moment , all that is certain is that the air will be cold enough for the white stuff especially on Xmas day and the 26th

We only get significant snow in the East when its cold enough and theres an East or northeast wind with pressure low enough.
It's a variation of what they call in the States and Ontario Canada "lake efffect snow" except obviously never as severe.
The cold air plunges over the relatively warm Irish sea and showers build.

An extreme version of this occurred in october of 2003 when Dublin had 24 hours of severe thunderstorms which built up in the Irish sea due to a cold northerly plunge.
Of course it was too warm then for snow.
However if that weather pattern were to happen in january Weathercheck would be jumping up and down all over the place with joy:D and the East especially Dublin would have feet of snow.

ninebeanrows

Very true Earthman but i expect a trough to push south
through Christmas day Probably will die
out befoe it reaches the south coast though.
Also late Christmas eve theresa strong possiblility
of some heavy snow for many areas especially
those in the more northern areas as a trough
move south!! Overall this Christmas IS
going to be white at least in some weather station
in Ireland and probably in Dublin. Temperatures are
likely to struggle to around 2c on Xmas day and
St Stephens day and will drop to -3c especially
in the east. These type of temperatures together
with a gale force northwesterly wind will make it
fell spectacularly cold windchill temperatures
mightnd rise above -5c in some places!

Oh and not to brag but heres the date and time i predicted a
cold Christmas

06-12-2004, 18:17

Merry White Xmas!!
Northern and Western Areas should now prepare for blizzard
conditions and in excess of 20cm's of snow coupled with
drifting. Things could really turn hairy across the Donegal
Penninsula Come Late Christmas Day

Gonzo

ive seen the latest forecasts from the bbc and sky and both are indicating that we are gonna have sunny spells and the outside chance of a wintry shower during the christmas period with temperatures of 2 to 5C... however north and western areas of scotland, nothern ireland, wales and cornwall cud have a chance of some decent snow showers but theres no mention of 'bands of snow' anywhere... if what they are saying will turn out to be true it will be very very dissapointing indeed.. im refusing to get all excited with the prospect of a kneedeep white blanket coz i havent seen one in south meath since 1992 and when it comes to snow forecasts i cant help but not believe them as snow seems to be almost a thing of the past in these parts. If weathercheck is correct and i hope he is coz I would love nothing than to wake up to a foot of snow on christmas day then we shud all go out and buy him pints!!!

ninebeanrows

Did i metnion knee deep snow??

The highest i mentioned was 20cm for the north
and west

BBC and any of us dont know the exact detail
for Christmas day. Put it this way there hardly going
to pop on a trough of snow on that chart that there
not sure of comin off are they?

What they are sure of is what they will show
Northern and Western areas will be plaqued
by Heavy snow showers for certain now

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

BBC and any of us dont know the exact detail
for Christmas day. Put it this way there hardly going
to pop on a trough of snow on that chart that there
not sure of comin off are they?

But you keep telling us it's coming,what sort of puters do you have versus theirs
if a trough moves south,It's going to be weak on the East coast too(theres no mention of any on the BBC forecast as yet)
I'd like to see daytime temperatures below 2 degree's aswell if I was to be confident of snow at sealevel.
I can tell you that based on experience rather than models.
General forecasts of 2 degree's at sealevel could mean snow on high ground inland ( where due to height the temp might be one or zero) but it doesn't guarantee snow on the coast where Dublin is.
It might happen but it's not a guarantee.

Now for snow lovers that was the positive bit.
However
Met Éireann are predicting temps in the range of 3-5 degrees for Xmas day that would restrict snow to Northern areas and high ground elsewhere.
Given that temps on wenesday and thursday are to be up to 12 degree's, the cold air plunge will have its work cut out to get them down to 2 degree's in Leinster.
I'd say 3 or 4 degree's would be more realistic to be honest and that aint in the range for blizzards and lying snow.

But then Mother nature is a wonderfull thing and can change her mind at any time.

ninebeanrows

No Earthman No Thats incorrect !!!!!!!!!!
Its like god versus the devil..........im god!!

Latest UKMO runs show amazing cold over
Ireland and the east looks the coldest

gpdam on the Irish East Coast works out
from the UKMO to be 516 dam on 12z Christmas day!
Just a little bit of info gpdam readings of 520 translate
roughly to freezing at sea level so what does
516 make it??

I expect a trough to run south through Christmas Eve night
and most of Ireland to wake up to at least a dusting of
snow!!

Believe me or believe me not, public forecasts are hardly
going to predict event like this but a local english forecast
predicted exactly that a trough moving south through
the UK and Ireland deliver a white Christmas to most...

Some stonking chart to come below......enjoy and believe



Midday Xmas Eve 528dam line well clear of the south coast
and our white christmas arriving in north Scotland these
charts are what dreams are made of, i must add that
the cold spell is only likely to last 3 days.

Heres the 96hr chart for midday Christmas and its a fairytale chart:



Christmas will be white for 80% of Ireland...Earthman your turn!!

BigCon

Oh and not to brag but heres the date and time i predicted a cold Christmas

06-12-2004, 18:17

I'd love a white christmas as much as the average person, but this is unbelievable - it's like "The Day After Tomorrow" (a bit of an exageration)!

If it's not a white Christmas then Weathercheck need not show his face around here again :mad:

If it is a white Christmas - then Weathercheck is my hero!

ninebeanrows

Christmas is over and it was an official white Christmas nearly everywhere
but alot of places only recieved a few snow showers

Looking onward and upward it would seem late on Monday
and into Tuesday we will have another brief 24hr cold
snap, it shouldnt bring much but will bring another frost
and perhaps some mountain snow late Monday.

Looking further ahead there is a degree of agreement that
we will have another short 48hr cold snap around New Years
so that needs watching, enjoy your Turkey left overs and remember
the white Christmas of 2004 We have all gotten a taste of the snow
earlier than we usually would, we have two full months of real winter
ahead of us lets hope there good

ninebeanrows

Cold air is set to dig in later tonight, snow is possible in the north midlands
and Ulster aroound and after midnight Didnt think i'd be saying that
so soon after the previous cold snap

Cold air digs in http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn122.gif
Lots of precip about http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn124.gif
Gpdam readings below 528 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.gif

Perhaps a surprise for many come morning

I still only expect sleety showers later but the charts show the
possibility for snow to low levels from 1201 am

Heres a modle interpretation at midnight Pinks indicate snow

Forecast post moved out of rain and shine and into the winter weather forecast thread.

Weathercheck could you resist putting your forecast interpretations in the rain or shine thread, thats a record of current conditions only.

For the record I do expect some mountain snow in the next 24hrs and maybe some shortlived wet sleetyness at sea level from showers.
It will be so slight though, most people won't know it's happening unless you are driving along and happen to notice some icyness in the raindrops hitting your windscreen as the wipers are on.

ninebeanrows

Sorry Earthman

Metcheck going for sleet in Dublin later hardly much i know
but worth keeping an eye on

Supercell

Its so unfair!! ..mild wet weather has no problems making it south ..but say snow and it retreats to the fields of the north and west!!

Anyhow...interesting night ahead..hopefully the Wicklow mountains will see some snow , going for a drive up there tomorrow.

Supercell

The ensembles are a complete mess at the moment, been a while since i saw such a lack of aggreement...the snow fanatic in me sees this as a good thing..the rational side says ...mild as usual..however been a few years since i've seen such uncertainty in so many models..interesting times.

Supercell

heres a little tease for any snow lovers..aint gonna happen tho (just an example of what am talking about above)

Supercell

As the Battlestar Galactica (BSG) fans would say ...what a frackin' mess!!



What the frack!!

Gonzo

not a chance of snow.... its way too mild.. only a slight frost outside... even if we do get snow it wont even last 24 hours as really mild weather is on the way by tomorrow night... we had 2 days of snow at christmas, at this stage we want more and that wud be a week of easterlys blowing in at least 8 inchs of proper snow countrywide...a few wee snow showers aint gonna excite anyone at this stage, we need sommet decent.

Guys this is the thread for comment on winter forecasts.
I repeat again rain or Shine is for reports only

Read the charter I'm trying to keep this place tidy!!!

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

not a chance of snow.... its way too mild.. only a slight frost outside... even if we do get snow it wont even last 24 hours as really mild weather is on the way by tomorrow night... we had 2 days of snow at christmas, at this stage we want more and that wud be a week of easterlys blowing in at least 8 inchs of proper snow countrywide...a few wee snow showers aint gonna excite anyone at this stage, we need sommet decent.

Actually Mullingar reported snow at 8am this morning.
I wouldn't get too excited though as that was bound to happen with temps in the vicinity down to 1 or 2 degree's,its a temporary thing associated with a particularally heavy shower and the very temporary cold air
Very mild by tomorrow

ninebeanrows

The outlook is mild for the near future, but i've been speaking to a friend
who has a friend at the Norweigian Weather Authourity whom have a longterm
weather model, for the past 60 Hours the model has been pointing
towards a cold blast from the East sometime around January 13th - 15th
As i say its a friend of a friend so it might be a case of chineses whispers
i'll try and get you more, but something to think about alot of Cold easterly
blasts were preceded by mild weather with Eurotrash....

More as i get it

Gonzo

it must be at least 10 years since Ireland has seen a proper lengthy easterly cold snap with lots of snow is it?

In recent years the conditions for an easterly have been happening in march or April, curiously common enough around easter time which is too late for an agressive cold snap.
You need it in january or february for max punch.
The last decent Easterly was mid february 94 iirc around valentines day.
The Irish sea was kind enough to produce lots of showers dumping locally 5 or 6 inches of snow here.

On another note, just to re assure longfield when the cold plunge and associated showers come from the East, the west of the country(even the midlands to a lesser extent) stay bone dry sunny and cold with just the odd flurry. Whilst any part of the exposed East is being whitened with unending fury