Current Weather indications

ninebeanrows

Weathercheck Go for Cold - If this goes tits up you can shoot me..

Severe late winter cold spell may cause severe shock to our nation

No the world isnt coming to an end, but Ireland could be facing its most prolonged and coldest period of weather for many years. Artic winds this weekend caused major power outages across the region with a few snow showers. What if we had a cold spell twice as hard as that for 5-10 days? Well that's what Ireland is set for if the GFS model is correct. Consistency over the last few weeks with this model has not been great but with a much shorter timescale GFS is throwing up some startling charts for even the hardest man on the street. With just 5 or 6 days until what could be Ireland's coldest spell of weather in nearly a decade, what would this mean for the Country. With mid February truely here we thought Spring would arrive, the cattle have been put back out in the fields, our spring flowers have blossomed and most worryingly humans here in Ireland also think Spring is here. Harsh cold weather is no longer a part of the average winter, a mere 2 or 3 day cold spell in this day in age is severe, how would we cope with something like an 80's type cold spell? Drifts 2 or 3 feet high for days and weeks, cold artic wind with snow by day with the east of our Island being worst affected. It would mean great hardship at the best of times but would cause major problems for our society, many farmers would be ruined and average daily life would be no more. Thankfully this cold spell does not look to be desperately severe but in this day in age at this time in the year it could cause major problems for a small community and espcially the built up east of our country.

Confidence on 5 day+ Cold Spell is 70%

We are now very confident of this and from Sunday Ireland will
enter a prolonged 5day + cold spell


Early indications suggest the arrival of cold as early as Saturday
with finer detail coming out later this week.

This time im well confident

Mothman

Yaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnn


My gun is loaded......

you know the rules on thread creations at this stage weathercheck.

merged into the appropriate place for weather indications-ah yes the current indications thread...

duplicate post deleted

ninebeanrows

Load the gun but dont shoot until at least Friday or Saturday

Good agreement tonight much colder from Sunday and beyond...

60% bordering on 70% confidence of something
good come Sunday

Matty H

Weathercheck wrote:

Weathercheck Go for Cold - If this goes tits up you can shoot me..

Severe late winter cold spell may cause severe shock to our nation

QUOTE]

I thought you said you had learnt not to overhype events? Yet you post utter rubbish like this!
Really Matt, you do need to have a word with yourself

ninebeanrows

I think a week long cold spell with snow would bring this
country to a standstill..do you think not?

Matty H

Weathercheck wrote:

I think a week long cold spell with snow would bring this
country to a standstill..do you think not?

Oh I give up Matt :mad:

Why on earth do you always take every cold run as gospel?? It may well turn colder yes, but there is nothing whatsoever in ANY of the models to suggest the country would be brought to a standstill!
-5 air over most of England at this time of year would result in snow for the higher ground. Not exclusively so, but mainly and the air would be from a dry source anyway, and any real effects would only be felt on the eastern, and mainly northeastern side, only conflict with an advancing front from the west would give any snowfall worth mentioning on that side and there's nothing to suggest that happening at all with a huge block sitting there
ukmo shows a scenario which would lead to temps of around 6-8c across most of England by next Monday. This is the scenario I favour. Temps will of course drop in any heavy showers, but that's not basis for any sort of extreme weather forecast.
To summarise Matt, you are posting yet more sensationalist bull

ninebeanrows

Matty i'll tell you something..
Just because your an annoyance you'll never bother me.
Your quite simply a prat who has joined here to toss
me about. I have had enough of it and i really dont care
what you say or do

I have tried long and hard to befriend you,
I have been nice and welcoming but you have given me
nothing but abuse and well, im sick of it :rolleyes:

DMC

TBH, I think you have upset enough people here with your attitude here, weathercheck. Very mature of you.

Matty H

DMC wrote:

TBH, I think you have upset enough people here with your attitude here, weathercheck. Very mature of you.

Indeed. DMC

As for picking on you Matt or whatever it is you think? I'm just pointing out what a twit you are making of yourself as usual.
Only one prat here mate and it's you with the rubbish, scaremongering tripe you post regarding winter weather

ninebeanrows

A weather related post to those kind and nice people who
are reading

From the 12z outputs its looking very good for a proper cold
spell from the weekend. It all hinges on a block forming
to our west and this is now coming into the crucial
96hr period, after this we need LP to dive south this
is well supported also. From the 12z outputs we have
postives from the GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, DWD and
only small negatives from the GEM and UKMO. UKMO
will fall in line i feel. Its looking like the weekend will
be cool and transitional before much colder weather
pushes down from the north After that winds are
expected to veer Easterly and the cold spell to continue
for some days. Eastern and Northern areas at this early stage would
be best favoured for appreciable snow but its very
early to predict precipitation at this stage.

So all in all its likely that were heading into the coldest period
of the winter and probably of the last few years.
Should be a shock to the country as Spring would
have seemed to have had blossomed over the last week!

ninebeanrows

DMC wrote:

TBH, I think you have upset enough people here with your attitude here, weathercheck. Very mature of you.

Sorry DMC i dont quite understand

All i know is i offer my services and do my best.

I have had my failers of late but i dont mean too

I'll always offer what i see and i'll grow from past
experience, but what i see coming in the next few
weeks is something very wintery.

Cheers

ninebeanrows

Better signs again at the exchanges on the 18z

I'll also ask people who think im not wanted around here
to send me a PM so you can spare me the trouble of posting

Scubadevils

I have my doubts from so many let downs but I would still prefer to know about some potential then not, as always, fingers crossed for something special in the usual weeks time

Darwin

Weathercheck...although you get a little (a lot ?) carried away at times, I do enjoy your obvious enthusiam for weather related matters. So on that note, you get my vote.

Matty H

Weathercheck wrote:

Better signs again at the exchanges on the 18z

I'll also ask people who think im not wanted around here
to send me a PM so you can spare me the trouble of posting

Diddums. Blimey Matt. Everyones not out to get you, you know.

18z is better in that it brings the colder air in quicker. By late Saturday for most of the UK.
If the ukmo backs this up tomorrow then things will be looking ok-ish. at the moment it's not worth getting remotely excited about

Mothman

Matty H wrote:

To summarise Matt, you are posting yet more sensationalist bull

As is so often the case, the truth hurts...

And as for my view, I find weatherchecks forecasts entertaining, I can come in here, from the real world, dream a bit...........well actually a lot, and then return to real world,

I'm learning things as well, such as how 70% really means 0%......

Oh the real world is beckoning again, sure we'll get a cold spell, but nothing exceptional. I had -5C in March last year, don't see that being bettered next week, parhaps a few normal air frosts, and a few flakes of snow? that's kind of normal as well even if its not every year,

Keep up the entertainment though, tis good for the soul

ninebeanrows

So lets get it straight ... Im your entertainment :eek:

Well i'll take it

18z very good goes for nice and cold from later Saturday
with some nice features thrown in for some snow in the
east. It would be very harsh now if this went tits up

Sorry Matty H but i think you understand what im getting at

And Mothman sadly what you describe as normal winter is no longer
but thats the type of weather we'd get with the odd prolonges spell
of snow. Icy day with snow shower and hard frosts by night.
If all goes well this will last for 5 days or more, not the usual 24hrs
which we have been getting this year

ninebeanrows

Nice
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

GuanYin

Matty H wrote:

Indeed. DMC

As for picking on you Matt or whatever it is you think? I'm just pointing out what a twit you are making of yourself as usual.
Only one prat here mate and it's you with the rubbish, scaremongering tripe you post regarding winter weather

Considered yourself banned

15 posts in and attacking a user.

I'm sick of it in this forum I'm gonna start clamping down on personal attacks.

Mothman

Weathercheck wrote:

And Mothman sadly what you describe as normal winter is no longer
but thats the type of weather we'd get with the odd prolonges spell
of snow. Icy day with snow shower and hard frosts by night.
If all goes well this will last for 5 days or more, not the usual 24hrs
which we have been getting this year

Yes I should clarify what I meant by normal, and that's the winters of the last 15 years or so, but during most of these recent winters cold spells such as the one next week usually do occur. Some examples in reverse order.

2003-2004
Feb 25th- Mar 3rd, 8 days, mean 2.9C
Jan 25th- Jan 29th 5 days mean 3.1C
Dec 27th-30th 4 days mean 3.0C

2002-2003
Feb 13th-18th 6 days mean 2.9C

2001-2002
none

2000-2001
Feb 24th-Mar 5th 10 days mean 2.1C
Jan 13th - 20th 8 days mean 3.0C
Dec 25-30th 6 days mean 1.8C

1999-2000
none.

I'll agree that none of the above are exceptionally cold, and I'm sure there must be plenty examples from the 80s that are colder, though the winter (Dec -Feb) of 00-01 was colder than average, as was Mar 01

And for others, bear in mind that long term winter average temp (1961-1990) is an estimated 5.8-6C with me.
Dublin Airport 5.3C
Rosslare 6.3C


So Weathercheck to keep this on topic are you saying that this coming "cold spell" is going to be significantly colder than the examples I've given??

GuanYin

DMC wrote:

TBH, I think you have upset enough people here with your attitude here, weathercheck. Very mature of you.

Report the post next time. Next time you have a go at a user. Bansville.

ninebeanrows

No i doubt it Angus but it may well be the most interesting
On second glance i presume its the mean, not the maxima
mean? If not then i do think this cold spell will beat a good
few there. 5-8days with maxima around 2-4c and minima around -3 - -5c

With the wind from the east there will be more snow about
and it will feel bitter. We now have great agreement between
most models for a cold spell. ECMWF and GFS paint the most
unsettled period with UKMO going for more settled

What looks like being so amazing is the possible length of the cold
snap with the majority of runs keeping it going for 10days!
Although that will no doubt change.

This cold spell offers us one thing and that is some real winter weather
which we havent had this winter. Cold northerly winds will move south
later on Saturday and much colder northeasterlies as we move into
next week with snow showers drapping northern and eastern coasts
Not to mention hard frosts and possible widespread snow events

What is a good sign is that the onset of the colder weather seems
to have been moved forward to Saturday.

Were nearly there folks just 2 or 3 more fences to jump

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Were nearly there folks just 2 or 3 more fences to jump

for a change you might have luck on your side if its a cold snowy spell you want.

Last nights forecast on BBC radio 4 after the midnight news by Alex Deakon (I think) spoke of this week being a temporary mild interlude and cold northerlys returning by Saturday.
They *must* have a level of confidence for that to be said on monday night.

Of course they wont allude as quickly to possible Easterlies after that or the length of a cold spell after that as there are too many variables this far out.

Models are looking better for that prospect though than the last tiem :eek:

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Matty i'll tell you something..
Just because your an annoyance you'll never bother me.
Your quite simply a prat who has joined here to toss
me about. I have had enough of it and i really dont care
what you say or do

I have tried long and hard to befriend you,
I have been nice and welcoming but you have given me
nothing but abuse and well, im sick of it :rolleyes:

This post is unacceptable here.
You must learn to bite your lip regarding what is only constructive criticism, you have been warned before and consider this your final warning.
Any further disregard for the moderation on this board will result in a ban for you.
It can't be any simpler than that.
Stick to discussing the weather content of posts here and that goes for everybody and we can all get along fine

ninebeanrows

I understand Earthman, but my lip was nearly bleading,
much thanks for giving me a chance tho

Its looking very interesting for a definate cold spell now

O.K we can get the details straight nearer the time but
for the moment we have the likes of a 5 day + cold
spell with light snow showers affecting the north and east.

That could become a give later today not to mention the
endless possibilities of something more spectacular.

Looking good now only 2 fences now with the horse in fine fettle

Whats more Earthman is the situation currently unfolding is a dream
for the eastern half of Ireland


Anyway of locking this thread and opening a new one
so we can forget this mess?

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Anyway of locking this thread and opening a new one
so we can forget this mess?

There is an on go-ing discussion on the postings of the last 24hrs between myself and DapperGent.
When we have decided on what to do, the off-topic posts here will be moved to the re-cycle bin.

ninebeanrows

The 6z ensembles have opened an uneasy split..
its O.K tho the bad runs just dont start the cold
until Monday with 60% majority starting it on Saturday

ninebeanrows

One for the doubters

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1441.gif


Cold spell arrives as early as late Friday and in the 96hr range

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.html

Widespread snow on Monday if this chart was proved
correct :eek:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1323.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn964.html

O.K i think its time to get excited :eek:

Worst cold spell of the winter ahead...though it wouldnt
be that hard to be would it!?

Looking like something sapecial from the weekend perhaps
a 1 in 5 year event or even rarer

Forgot to add the above is POSSIBLE

ninebeanrows

Sh she shake it shake shake it up :eek: :eek: :eek:

Here we go guys this is the crap

Getting my eld pops to buy some anti-freeze, sleigh,
lots of turf, oil and gas :eek:

Cast your eyes on the DWD :eek:


http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/m/xl/200502151200_120.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/m/xl/200502151200_144.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/m/xl/200502151200_168.gif


O.K O.K Ramp Mode Breached....Weathercheck overload