Could Fine Gael be pushed to the right?

RoTelly

There are notable FG and FF politicians who should really join the SDs at this point. I never really understood why Austin Curry would be in FG of all of the political parties in Ireland at the time coming from his SDLP background, and his daughter should now consider moving to the SDs considering her response to the presidential election.

It seems to me many politicians in both parties are just there because of family ties or history more so than anything else.

For Petes Sake

People trying to make the argument that the Nazi's were socialists just because they said they were socialists need to remember that North Korea's official title still is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

yagan

Back to the present day my one interesting observation from the presidential poll that after winning her own constituency Humphries next best results were in Rathdown and Dun Laoighaire at around 40%, and then a good drop down to the next best result around the 30% mark.

Is it illustrative of a FG bubble? FG have TDs all around the country but at this poll party support seemed fragmented between wealthy areas of south county Dublin and the rest of the country where FG has TDs.

I was disappointed to see FG adapt Trumpish style attack videos, but then again they have hired London PR companies to help them canvas before.

WealthyB

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941083#Comment_123941083

Looking for change from within, I wouldn't expect Ogra FG (which to be fair, has a few Thatcherites and Libertarians among them) to retain their principles once they ascend to Senior Hurling - I'm specifically thinking of Simon Harris who vowed to his Greystone constituents "I will always be a pro-life candidate" in his Cllr days. Any Ogra FG member who doesn't fit with the current zeitgeist within FG will find their options limited rather quickly, so they'll bend and break for their own careers.

Looking outside of FG, I think what could push FG to the right would be if they saw cohesive support move firmly to the more extreme right wing parties, such as The National Party, Irish Freedom Party etc etc. But that's something I don't see happening btw; not least for another 10 years at a minimum. Votes lost to Independents mean nothing, as Independents can be easily assimilated back into a Program for Government at which point any hardline stances are quickly softened. Votes lost to FF mean nothing as they're a willing Government Partner. It only seems to be the Votes for Labour and the SocDems that FG seem hell bent on chasing; a bizarre strategy, courting people that despise you, and always will.

I disagree completely that a FG majority would lead to more Right Wing policies; they've shown nothing to suggest that they want to court the FG Vote of Old. Championing unfettered immigration, supporting draconian Hate Speech Laws, initiating reckless Government spending, being soft on crime, embracing identity politics, and having a penchant for over-regulation of every aspect of citizens lives; these are SocDem Policies, not the policies of any serious Right Wing Party. When it was put to Emer Higgins TD by David Quinn on the Brendan O'Connor show that FG had left a significant cohort of votes on the table that they have no interest in courting, her response was "Society has moved on". It was a telling comment IMO.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941152#Comment_123941152

If FG ever gained a majority in the Dáil, I have no doubt that we would see hard right policies put in place, but I can't see that majority happening.

I have absolutely huge doubts because it doesn't make any sense. What hard right policies do you think they are just itching to put in place? FG are basically just a classically liberal party these days, whatever their origins. And they have been behind a huge amount of the social liberalisation in Ireland by finally tackling a bunch of issues FF were too scared to touch.

I also have no idea what you mean by using emigration as a form of social control.

I can only assume we have very different definitions of "hard right".

Everlong1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941098#Comment_123941098

This kind of smarter than thou nit picking and pedantry is precisely the kind of nonsense I'm talking about.

csirl

The big problem with Irish politics is that none of our parties are clearly left or right. All are a mixture of mainly moderate left with a sprinkling of right added in (low corporation tax/regulation and free market trade and immigration policies). All are afraid to step outside the box and fight an election on differing policy matters. Given that FG members are quite consevative, I doubt we'll see them seperating themselves from the comfort of the herd.

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941237#Comment_123941237

All organisations have a thing called organisation culture. When you join a company or any other organisation, you have three basic choices - either you accept the culture and fit in, or if you don't like it you stay and grit your teeth - or you leave.

Fianna Fáil traditionally had a feel-good culture, which involved something for everybody - social housing, a pay rise, a job, better healthcare, access to education for the kids, and so on.

Fine Gael on the other hand was more "you get what you can pay for". And nothing for those who can't pay.

Although there is actually very little difference between the parties' policies nowadays, internally there are still remnants of this, and it shows in how they communicate with the public, or at least how they communicated until Martin took over. IMO of course.

Everlong1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941189#Comment_123941189

I'm not advocating for that and nor have I ever. However, if mainstream political parties won't take action on immigration you WILL see more support for the likes of the National Party here. I'm at a loss to undertand why everyone on this thread seems to think that the Irish are blessed with some saintly disposition that makes them immune to the lure of the far right. Compared to every other country in Europe, whose democracies were liberal and secular when we were still a backward theocracy, and all of which now have growing anti-immigration movements as a result of their failed immigration policies. No doubt the usual suspects will be along shortly to trumpet BUT THEY DIDN'T GET ANY VOTES IN THE LAST ELECTION THAT PROVES THE IRISH ARE PRO - IMMIGRATION !!!!!!! Wait and see. Another ten years of untrammeled immigration, on top of the problems already emerging from the hundreds of thousands who've already arrived and are enjoying the welfare lifestyle, and we'll see if this complacency is vindicated.

deirdremf

I think it was in Alice in Wonderland that one of the characters said the words mean what I want them to mean.

In real life though, that doesn't work.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941279#Comment_123941279

id argue the most dominant policies, i.e. economic, are more right leaning, but there definitely is a strong social leaning from all parties to the left, but we are truly a very centrist country overall, hence why we ve maintained a more stable political stance compared to many other countries at the moment, but its under serious pressure now

Everlong1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941227#Comment_123941227

Excellent points well made. I've actually just posted almost exactly the same point about the fate that'll befall the mainstream parties if the far right starts making inroads.

Farmer2024

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941210#Comment_123941210

In the coming decades, the constituencies with the highest percentage of spoiled votes will elect reform/afd type nationalist politicians first.

FG will go the same way as similar parties across Europe collapsing and retreating to the more affluent areas with the lowest spoiled vote as they sink in the polls. I don't personally understand how anybody who has been paying attention to European politics over the last decade cannot see this trend. FG and FF only chance of survival long term at near their current size is if they use the advantage of seeing the fate of their sister parties across Europe as a warning and taking corrective action asap. Judging by their complete and total incompetence during the presidential election I wouldn't hold my breath!

Farmer2024

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941283#Comment_123941283

We are approx at the same stage politically the UK was when the BNP were getting council seats, a few MEPs etc and Nick Griffin went on Question Time.

The national party et al are the Irish BNP/Tommy Robinson waiting for the Irish Reform equivalent to show up. When it does show up things will move quickly and a significant percentage of SF, FF, and FG will move to them.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941342#Comment_123941342

maybe, maybe not, im not convinced, but the movement definitely is growing here to, but theres still plenty of older voters around to keep this at bay for the moment

csirl

The UKs political system lends itself to sudden change. The FPTP system means a movement of only a few % can dramatically change the makeup of parliament. You can also have a firm majority with support in the high 30s %.

With our system change is slower and its near impossible to get a majority alone. Look at SF - huge increase in support in a generation, yet never in power.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941363#Comment_123941363

which is actually really good, again, another reason why we ve remained relatively stable , compared to other countries of late, we re lucky the pr-stv system still exists here

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941342#Comment_123941342

I can see the dynamic, but being tough on illegal immigration is a position that's being adopted by all centrist polities across Europe, I see the same trend emerging in Ireland. However I don't think the coalition nature of Irish representation will allow a single issue crowd out everything else like it did in the UK with brexit.

So in that respect outside of the usual social media mob that are heavy consumers of US/UK identity politics I don't see any hard right position being sustainable. Micheal D Higgins campaigned against joining the ECC on idiological grounds, but it was in rural Ireland that support was strongest.

In other a hard right ideology only works if the voting system accommodates extremes like the US and USA.

Farmer2024

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941382#Comment_123941382

Is it not working in several types of voting systems across the West already?

Farmer2024

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941382#Comment_123941382

Also, forgot to add, what centrist party in Ireland is tough on illegal migration? (Don't want to argue semantics about what is legal/illegal with Ukraine/IPAS, what matters is public perception not legalistic definitions of who is which)

We spent 2.1 billion on IPAS and Ukrainian accommodation alone last year - not including all other social supports.

Almost 400 euro per person alive in the country.

The equivalent of say hiring 35,000 nurses, teachers, gardai on at an average cost of 60k per job.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941393#Comment_123941393

Yes, but not at the expense of everything else, like how Brexit and Trump have are having economic and societal consequences where immigration hysteria has trumped everything else.

For example I believe both La Pen in France and 5Star in Italy were both pro leaving the EU and the Euro, but then the reality set in that you can't have your wages in euros but your debts in Franc/Lira and they both walked back those positions.

So inevitably the reduced non EU immigration became mainstream norms in their spectrums.

I reckon the same is happening here by degrees.

What I'm looking forward to seeing is what effect the AirBnB restrictions in Barcelona after the first six months. If it's brings more short term rental to the long term market then I can see it been adapted across Europe whereever accommodation shortages are fueling racist mobs.

Idbatterim

I don't think is left v right etc. It's people being sick of ffg getting nothing done , despite all the time and money in the world. Many deserting them and going to ' the left ' as varying shades of left, is all we have to choose from...

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941600#Comment_123941600

many are actually moving to the more extreme right, but since we currently dont have a political vehicle for these voices, some have taken to the streets and spoiling votes etc, so theres definitely a calling for such a political vehicle

Idbatterim

There is a calling for the likes of a pd's, Creighton was miles ahead of them, she writes for the sb post. She'd be infinitely better than anything we have in the Dail...

It beggars belief , that a new party hasn't formed. The vote they would get, by not being left and not being ffg. Would be substantial!

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941632#Comment_123941632

with being a lefty, i disagree, the dichotomous thinking of such folks, would very likely accelerate our most pressing issues.

i wouldnt be surprised if such a new party does form in the coming years, as many are simply not being represented by our 3 main parties, so this is probably gonna get very messy, but i wouldnt be surprised if the result is continued ffg governments by default, as enough voters will probably stick with them for the moment, most voters want stability, hence ffg outcomes, only minorities would probably vote for such alternatives

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941632#Comment_123941632

Creighton and her entire party lost their seats.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941605#Comment_123941605

There is no political vehicle for them because all attempts at it are electoral failures.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941632#Comment_123941632

She would not be better than anything we have in the Dáil which is why she is no longer in the Dáil

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941865#Comment_123941865

possible bad timing, this is quickly moving towards the demand for a more extreme party, dont be surprised if this occurs soon

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941978#Comment_123941978

I mean, there was an election 11 months ago and they got nowhere.

I mean, I get the general point. I think that element of the electorate will likely grow. But it is worth bearing in mind that it remains tiny for now.

almostover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123941189#Comment_123941189

Were the PDs not that party?