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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring /Summer 2025
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Sunday still showing high potential that could be an active day especially in Connaught, big CAPE readings coming in corresponding with the KO an K Index and the trigger is the Cold Front and outer bands and probably some trough activity moving into all that heat. Bit to go yet but models keep showing weather moving in on Sunday with some heavy rain potential especially if and where thunderstorms break out.
Monday also some potential and other days next week. Some heavy rain showing up Tues into Weds and again potential for thunderstorms in the very warm moist SW and S'ly airflow and blustery also in the SW for a time. Would be very humid and sticky in that , currently showing temps of 17 / 18C overnight . ECM goes on to show more frontal activity on thurs with more Thunderstorm potential. High DP's so high humidity , could end up with fairly high rain totals in the Western half of the country , highest along Atlantic coastal counties.
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IMO Connaught still looking like the main area for thunderstorms tomorrow but across the midlands, W Leinster and along Atlantic coastal counties all showing a chance of some activity although more isolated risk there. More opportunity with the occluded front moving in off the Atlantic tomorrow evening/ night.
Temps getting into the mid to high 20's and Dp's into the high teens or even 20C especially in Connaught. Models showing high potential of thunderstorms and some severe storms possibly with large cell formation and the charts are picking up the possible outflow wind distribution from some of those cells that could mature especially in Galway, Mayo and Sligo. Would expect very heavy rain potential there with hail a possibility and relatively large at that if the cells get big enough. Spot flooding and steamy roads possible. Yellow if not Orange warnings as Dazzler97 mentioned a possibility.
Lots of energy to tap into with huge CAPE readings at over 2000J/kg with very buoyant warm atmosphere, LLS and DLS, convergence zones, topographical lift and in fact the Lifting index is very high for Ireland, moisture, and upper movements associated with the approaching negatively tilted upper trough which moves the upper Low over us on Monday with a widespread showery day with thunderstorms possibly spread out over more of the country perhaps but possibly not as potent as what could kick off in Connaught tomorrow afternoon.
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Both really I would have thought. The fronts and moisture laden air around the LP and being pushed ahead of the front moving into the heat over Ireland along with all the other parameters and upper atmospheric dynamics helping them to form and mature over Ireland especially Connaught tomorrow.
Soundings and model indices showing comparable charts to other supercell formations in the past, Soundings below are for near Westport and coming up as potential for severe storms and could easily get 30 -40 mm rain in a very short space of time under a storm.
Just outside Galway
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From ESTOFEX
A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland mainly for heavy rain and isolated hail.
... Parts of Ireland ...
Ahead of a gradually approaching cold front and upper trough, a growing cluster of thunderstorms is forecast during the afternoon onwards. A sharp shear gradient exists within a plume of 400-800 J/kg effective MUCAPE as DLS increases from NE to SW from 10 to 20 m/s. A mix of multicells and transient supercells is forecast, which grow upscale while moving offshore. Heavy rain will be the main risk despite some hail and gusts.
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