Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring /Summer 2025

Storm 10

30 thousand strikes in South East UK flooding no trains power outages etc

Meteorite58

Models not backing down on thunderstorm possibility today, increased if any.

Elmer Blooker

recent strikes in south Wexford on Met E radar, nothing showing on Netweather radar of course.

There would have been a lot of lightning flashes on the east coast earlier if it was dark

Cooljaybeans

Heavy rain in south wexford earlier with a flash of lightning and couple of rumbles

mcburns07

Very showery in Cork today, some heavy ones at times

pad199207

Thunder in Laois

Dazler97

Thunderstorm warnings have been issued a while but here they are

dsmythy

For us out east those heavy areas of rain moving eastwards seem to be the interest for any thunderstorm activity appearing.

Weather BOFH

Few rumbles just now here in South Kildare.

highdef

Heavy connective rain near Mullingar.

pad199207

I honestly don’t know why they issue these thunderstorm warnings

dsmythy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123543879#Comment_123543879

I mean the potential was there. They could have took off. But they do risk becoming background noise. And maybe bog standard thunderstorms should be just that. A mention in the forecast is enough for anyone with heightened stakes in the risk of lightning. Anyway warning has elapsed for today. Only hope is a rouge from the batch of showers crossing the middle of the country now.

Meteorite58

Got the showers but between the two main charts for sferics very few detected in the end.

Meteorite58

Some provisionally high CAPE readings Thurs and especially Fri but will there be a trigger, The Met Office showing a trough near Ireland on Thurs and over Ireland on Fri. Increasingly warm and humid with the atmosphere holding more moisture.

Badly burnt last week by the very low showing of active thunderstorms though, more heat this week might help to pop a few off, other parameter's looking half decent , will see.

The Macho Man

Currently met.ie are forecasting Saturday as a potential day for some thundery outbreaks

Dazler97

Friday afternoon looks juicy and of course I'm not in carrick 1,000 cape possible

Meteorite58

Some of the models showing possibility of thunderstorms moving into the South and into Munster in the early hours, not great cross model agreement though, will see later models.

Meteorite58

Muggy night in store with DP's in the mid teens in places. Approaching trough in the early hours is the area of interest mainly over Munster where lifted index is at its highest associated with the passage of the trough by the looks of it, ECM showing thunderstorms from around 02.00 to early morning mainly centering over Kerry, Limerick , Cork and maybe into Clare and Tipp. The various indices all showing potential, ECM showing some severe thunderstorms centered /parked over parts of N Kerry, Limerick, N Cork….. will see how it performs, way out on its own on this.

UKMO showing storms carry further into the midlands and peter out mid morning.

ECM goes on to show the N midlands, NW and N with potential for a scattering of storms ( maybe the W also ) tomorrow afternoon / early evening.

Some of the Hi Res models showing getting up to 28C tomorrow in places.

Still very little cross model agreement so a degree of uncertainty, no doubt some huge CAPE available tomorrow but doesn't always lead to thunderstorms if not enough moisture in the atmosphere and other parameters not available.

CirrusBusiness

There's a bit of popcorn cloud over south Kilkenny. Usually a good sign. Don't want to jinx it though. Bit of activity off the south coast.

Oscar Bravo

Met forecast updated also (Ive defo jinxed it now )

Mild and humid tonight. While most areas will remain dry, localised heavy showers may occur with the chance of isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will not fall below 13 to 16 degrees in light to moderate southeast breezes

PukkaStukka

Cloud that one associates with mid level instability is bubbling up west of me (NCD). We're not in the firing line for any convective weather, but it is indicative of subtle changes aloft

Dazler97

I hope some thunderstorms do bubble up tonight we shall see anyway

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123562307#Comment_123562307

Not a word about it on the forecast after the 9pm tv news

Even shower hatching on the weather map weren’t mentioned as if they weren’t there

Bizarre

JanuarySnowstor

Unfortunately that's the type of presenter he is!

Meteorite58

Storm slow moving towards the South about 230 km approx from Cork, may not live that long but instability out there anyway for others to form.

Met office has the trough arriving later than previous output.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123562618#Comment_123562618

It is strange given that it is in the main forecast.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes indeed plenty activity to our South. I maybe believe in this more than a week ago because the heat is in situ!! I just have a gut things will kick off around 1am

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123562743#Comment_123562743

Another storm closer to the S might be kicking off, yeah the early hours at least looks like.

JanuarySnowstor

Getting ever closer now. For those along the South Coast worth looking South!! I would imagine places like Cobh can see distant lightning if anyone cares that is lol

.Donegal.

You wouldn’t think there would be too much activity purely looking below but who knows.