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Storm Kathleen Sat 6th April 2024.
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02-04-2024 6:19pm#1
Was deliberating over posting in up to +120hr thread or start a new thread and said well this is a weather forum and worth keeping an eye on some potentially very windy weather the weekend. Degree of uncertainty as yet but good to track developments one way or the other.
What you reckon adocholiday, fair upgrade tonight from the main models, strongest winds tracking over Ireland on the latest runs, named storm on the cards if they keep this up. Difficult one, forming rapidly off the fast looping Jet moving up from the south, with very strong stormy winds coming from a S, SSW, SW direction along with heavy rains and on this set up the S , SW, W getting the brunt of the rains. The last few run have been upgrading this, was perhaps showing it very windy on Fri but uncertainty now. Fast moving system which will chop and change over the coming days with timing, track and strength but has the makings of something strong perhaps.
Watch out for Fohn winds further up the country, currently showing getting up to 15 or 16c on Sat for a time and very mild Fri also, probably quite a humid airflow.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on10
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ECM and GFS both showing very similar setups at the moment. Both show a significant low pressure system spinning up Friday morning to the East of the Azores. It moves North and deepens rapidly as it does so and continues to deepen as it passes to our West. Really tight gradient on the charts. GFS has it moving much faster, with the strongest winds coming onshore to the SW around 2am Saturday, ECM more of a Saturday afternoon event. Interesting to see how this develops but a lot of consensus already this far out. Nearly 140km/h gusts for coastal SW, ECM showing a much more widespread windfield than GFS at the moment.
The 18z runs should be coming out soon for ICON and GFS.
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Models shifting around a bit but ECM and UKMO still showing very strong winds in parts if not stormy. GFS had been stormy but latest run shifted the winds off and on the W coasts, ARPEGE bouncing around a bit and showing g some v strong winds in parts, ICON gone off it a bit on latest.
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ARPEGE at this stage is probably a good average of the models, a couple are that bit stronger. Looking very windy sweeping up over the country from a S to SW direction from early Sat, strongest winds through the morning, afternoon and into the evening and slowly abating later that evening. The southerly winds could prove damaging with gusts probably getting up to 80 km/h widespread and getting up to 90 or 100km/h especially Munster and other parts with higher gusts in coastal areas. Some models showing gusts overland getting up to 110km/h in places but a couple of days out yet to know for definite and in time models should align more giving a clearer picture.
Fast moving system initially , deepening on approach from the S moving up close to the SW/ W coasts being carried along by the Jet, left exit. The storm system could spawn other waves and hard to know at this stage how close by it stays into Sunday, some models showing could be quite windy also Sunday. Fairly blustery/ windy for a time on Fri also. Bands of rain giving the heaviest rain in the W, SW and S it would seem.
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GFS that bit further off the coast, still strong winds overland, widespread up to 90km/h, up to 100km/h for large parts of the country too, up to 110km/h on coasts, up around 120km/h in SW coasts, going through that bit quicker than the others but remaining very windy into the evening, windy again on Sun especially the W, N and N
ICON very to extremely windy for much of the country but need to stick with the average for now but worth keeping an eye on.
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UKMO 18Z just goes out to +66hrs at atm, very strong but again would side with the ECM, GFS and ARPEGE for now, adding ICON which is by far the strongest but inclined to over do it by 10 Km/h or so especially at this stage.
The main thing is that all models showing a strong wind event sweeping up over Ireland, just need to fine tune the wind speeds now.
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Changed title.
WRF a good model closer to the time, ICON and UKMO still away out in front but looking at an average of the models for now, still need to keep an eye on it for fine tuning. Met Eireann fairly quick out of the blocks with the warnings, more counties could be added to Orange, will see how it pans out.
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