Storm Kathleen Sat 6th April 2024.

Meteorite58

Was deliberating over posting in up to +120hr thread or start a new thread and said well this is a weather forum and worth keeping an eye on some potentially very windy weather the weekend. Degree of uncertainty as yet but good to track developments one way or the other.

What you reckon adocholiday, fair upgrade tonight from the main models, strongest winds tracking over Ireland on the latest runs, named storm on the cards if they keep this up. Difficult one, forming rapidly off the fast looping Jet moving up from the south, with very strong stormy winds coming from a S, SSW, SW direction along with heavy rains and on this set up the S , SW, W getting the brunt of the rains. The last few run have been upgrading this, was perhaps showing it very windy on Fri but uncertainty now. Fast moving system which will chop and change over the coming days with timing, track and strength but has the makings of something strong perhaps.

Watch out for Fohn winds further up the country, currently showing getting up to 15 or 16c on Sat for a time and very mild Fri also, probably quite a humid airflow.

Meteorite58

Very similar now form the rest of the models at this stage which is not often the case at this time frame.

WolfeEire

Strong gale force sw-w winds favoured on Saturday at this point with varying scenarios being played out in the main models. One to keep an eye on.

Meteorite58

Very similar from ARPEGE

https://twitter.com/NickJF75/status/1775235722120675585/photo/1

adocholiday

ECM and GFS both showing very similar setups at the moment. Both show a significant low pressure system spinning up Friday morning to the East of the Azores. It moves North and deepens rapidly as it does so and continues to deepen as it passes to our West. Really tight gradient on the charts. GFS has it moving much faster, with the strongest winds coming onshore to the SW around 2am Saturday, ECM more of a Saturday afternoon event. Interesting to see how this develops but a lot of consensus already this far out. Nearly 140km/h gusts for coastal SW, ECM showing a much more widespread windfield than GFS at the moment.

The 18z runs should be coming out soon for ICON and GFS.

Robwindstorm

Powerful enough looking storm if it holds that track and intensity.

On 26th April 2019, Storm Hannah give cause for Red alerts in the SW and knocked out power to over 30,000 customers. That storm came from the coast of Canada and the month of April was very good overall weather-wise.

pauldry

Ya saw this in FI about 200hrs ago. They pretty well nailed it so far give or take a day.

At worst this could give wind gusts in excess of 120kph widely At best the West coast only sees 100kph gusts.

Windy.tv or ventuskey are about to get traffic. TV weather mentioned this today. Grand National could be deferred to Sunday.

spookwoman

Looking at where I live it's showing 121kph in Waterford city. Scaffolding up which might get caught in the line of fire. Going to be some moving of plants etc the day before.

MrFrisp

Isn't the Grand National the week after?? 🤔

adocholiday

Plenty of changes to come yet. GFS 18z keeps the strongest winds off the west coast, and ICON 18z has the strongest winds up the Irish sea. Still windy overland on both but not as severe as previous runs. I expect there'll be lots of changes in the next few days.

bazlers

Yes Grand National Saturday week as im flying over Friday week.

pauldry

I thought the Irish Grand National was the week before the English but mustn't be. Going will be soft in any case.

As for storm seems likely to run up the West coast but just how close it gets is open to question. Could be another one a few days after too as the lows from the SW continue.

Newtown90

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121968451#Comment_121968451

Irish Grand National took place on Monday....

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121968451#Comment_121968451

Irish Grand National was Monday gone. Flying Saturday morning for Paris Marathon so hope this storm stays well west.

An expensive April for me. Back to beans and toast and hibernation until june!

slimboyfat

The difference between the ECM and GFS yesterday was huge but not so much today, worth watching this over the next day or two to see what develops.

pauldry

Grand National on Saturday 13th April at 4pm

Plenty of rain between now and then.

Storm staying out West on latest with just the usual Mace HD and Belmullet gusts.

Meteorite58

Models shifting around a bit but ECM and UKMO still showing very strong winds in parts if not stormy. GFS had been stormy but latest run shifted the winds off and on the W coasts, ARPEGE bouncing around a bit and showing g some v strong winds in parts, ICON gone off it a bit on latest.

BobMc

ahh lads not this weekend, have to drive up to letterkenny friday afternoon from limerick and back leaving Donegal Saturdayy about about 12noon or so, will have to keep an eye on this one, what time frame are forecasts predicting at the moment

SaoPaulo41

Sorry for this question but how stormy is it looking for leinster game for sat night ( 8pm onwards) might not take kids if bad . Game in Aviva

adocholiday

The latest model runs are still showing some variation in intensity but timing looks consistent across them now for early-mid afternoon peak. GFS and ARPEGE both showing a primarily west coast event but still gusty right across the country, ICON showing a more wide-spread area of high winds but as usual it tends to overdo the gusts.

I don't think we're looking at anything too serious here for people traveling or going to a match etc. I'd say widespread yellow warnings are likely, with orange for coastal parts of the SW and W for a while. The worst should be long past by 8pm. That's based on current guidance though, still 3 days out yet so lots of changes likely. Keep an eye on Met Eireann for warnings etc.

slimboyfat

With the current models, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few red warnings on the west coast for this one.

BolloxChop

I wonder will we have the Shannon radar back online before this hits...

CruelSummer

Can someone explain why the low pressures way to our south are actually not going over Portugal/Spain or even France but turning up in our direction and heading off up by Ireland? It seems like all Ireland and the UK get these days are low pressures from all directions. East, West, North, South.

CptMonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121971837#Comment_121971837

I don't know but is it a function of climate change ?

Meteorite58

ARPEGE at this stage is probably a good average of the models, a couple are that bit stronger. Looking very windy sweeping up over the country from a S to SW direction from early Sat, strongest winds through the morning, afternoon and into the evening and slowly abating later that evening. The southerly winds could prove damaging with gusts probably getting up to 80 km/h widespread and getting up to 90 or 100km/h especially Munster and other parts with higher gusts in coastal areas. Some models showing gusts overland getting up to 110km/h in places but a couple of days out yet to know for definite and in time models should align more giving a clearer picture.

Fast moving system initially , deepening on approach from the S moving up close to the SW/ W coasts being carried along by the Jet, left exit. The storm system could spawn other waves and hard to know at this stage how close by it stays into Sunday, some models showing could be quite windy also Sunday. Fairly blustery/ windy for a time on Fri also. Bands of rain giving the heaviest rain in the W, SW and S it would seem.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121971837#Comment_121971837

It's the jet stream. If you look at the forecast of it for Saturday you can see how the low pressure forming in the Azores is being pushed northwards.

igCorcaigh

I'd love a good storm… the weather has been too boring. :/

igCorcaigh

Yet, I have seen extreme warmth forecast for the upper atmosphere predicted to go over us and the UK… but the temps won't translate to ground level.

Meteorite58

GFS that bit further off the coast, still strong winds overland, widespread up to 90km/h, up to 100km/h for large parts of the country too, up to 110km/h on coasts, up around 120km/h in SW coasts, going through that bit quicker than the others but remaining very windy into the evening, windy again on Sun especially the W, N and N

ICON very to extremely windy for much of the country but need to stick with the average for now but worth keeping an eye on.

Meteorite58

UKMO 18Z just goes out to +66hrs at atm, very strong but again would side with the ECM, GFS and ARPEGE for now, adding ICON which is by far the strongest but inclined to over do it by 10 Km/h or so especially at this stage.

The main thing is that all models showing a strong wind event sweeping up over Ireland, just need to fine tune the wind speeds now.

pauldry

ICON got the storm that brought 140kph gust to Sligo spot on. Its all dependent on how far West the depression stays. I'd still think Western and Southwestern coastal fringes 100 to 120kph. Everywhere else sub 100.