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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2024
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Models showing heavy convective showers tomorrow courtesy of the circulation of LP to the South feeding in bands of rain and showers and a thunderstorm risk mainly in Munster but maybe straying into Connaught and possibly parts of midlands but a lower risk there I would think. Some models showing it quite active in Munster. Low level shear and convergence zones with a negatively tilted upper trough aiding instability and vorticity. Could see a shot of activity along the Kerry /Cork border perhaps being aided by orographic lift and converging winds.
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A small chance of a thunderstorm tomorrow mostly in the SW perhaps and Thurs looks active and more widespread potential across the country with good sunshine levels giving decent CAPE, temperatures getting up to the high teens and over 20C in a good area in central Ireland, decent Theta E readings giving plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and decent enough DLS. Will need to keep an eye on Thurs as has to look for a few days now of being quite active and could produce warnings.
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Thunderstorm warning issued for Cork, Limerick and Clare from 3pm to 8pm.
https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1791030163959947369/photo/1
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