Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2024
Comments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
Delighted to hear the news of your fleeting light show - they're always far better when you're not expecting it.
I've similar thoughts to yourself regarding the coming months. Last June was amazing for thunderstorms (day and night for about a week) near my home home in Longford…..the same was the case for many inland areas.
My gut feeling (and it's only that, based on experience, analysis of historical data and recent trends) is that this summer will be quite mixed but I think there'll be a bit more hot and sunny high pressure conditions to be had at times but also interspersed with periods of thundery weather (similar to last June) but I do feel that there will be some strong or severe thunderstorms during the summer; I reckon there may some notable storms to be had. The high level thunderstorms associated with Spanish plumes that occurred a lot last summer are likely to be seen a lot this summer again, perhaps even moreso, due to the much much warmer than average seas (will mentioned that a bit further on in this post).
I also feel that the all time temperature record of 33.3 °C at Kilkenny Castle, on 26 June 1887 could be breached this summer. It was so close to happening last year…….and more notably it was Dublin (Phoenix Park) where the record came close to being broken.
We've had another exceptionally warm winter season. We're surrounded by ever increasingly warm waters. Last year the North Atlantic was the warmest on record by quite a considerable margin and to date this year, it has been consistently warmer than last years record breaking year, by a considerable margin, most of the time.
6 -
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
The warmer Eastern half of the country favours more the development of thunderstorms tomorrow especially in the NE, E coastal counties where convergence zones will set up as weather spreads in from the West during the afternoon in the form of a decaying cold front, showers and trough. The upper trough goes negative in the afternoon I reckon. A nice convergence zone through Northern Ireland could be productive.
With enough time for temperatures to build and a decent amount of instability from Deep Layer shear and lower breezes should give convection enough fuel to mature throughout the afternoon , not widespread and more likely sporadic but a few lively storms perhaps. Dublin, Kildare , Meath, Louth, Cavan, Monaghan all with a chance of some activity I would think.
Possibly see warnings for the E along with Northern Ireland which has been issued for a couple of days. Locally heavy downpours leading to spot flooding, a few of the bigger convective clouds could produce hail. Funnels possible and wouldn't rule out a tornado .
10 -
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
